There is an old saying about the fierce Chechen tribes who inhabit southern Russia's Caucasus mountains: "Chechen cannot ever be defeated. They can only be killed."Chechen are Russia's nemesis. Even the notoriously brutal Russian mafia fears the ferocious Chechen, and for good reason.Last year, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin proudly proclaimed that resistance to Russian rule in the North Caucasus had been eliminated. The region was pacified.Confounding Putin's claim, Chechen suicide bombers hit Moscow's subway last week, killing 39 and injuring over 70. Chechen suicide bombers in Dagestan killed twelve, mostly policemen. There were further attacks in neighboring Dagestan. The North Caucasus was again at a boil.The attacks seriously rattled Russians and left the Kremlin deeply embarrassed and enraged.Two "black widows" – wives or daughters of Chechen independence fighters killed or raped by the Russians (Russians call them "Islamic terrorists" and "bandits") – took their revenge last week, as so often in recent years.The latest Chechen leader, Doku Umarov – all his predecessors were liquidated by Russia – claimed from his hideout in the Caucasus mountains that the subway attacks were reprisal for the recent killing of Chechen civilians by Russian security forces.He warned Moscow, "we will make you feel what we feel."In recent years, Chechen "black widows" have brought down two civilian airliners. Other Chechen hijacked an entire Moscow theater, and derailed the "Alexander Nevsky" Express that runs from Moscow to St. Petersburg.Chechen are a tiny but fierce North Caucasian mountain people of Indo-European origin. They, and other Muslim Caucasian tribes, such as Dagestanis and Cherkass (Circasians), have battled Russian imperial rule for the past 300 years.In 1877, Imperial Russia killed 40% of the Chechen population of about 220,000. Four hundred thousand Cherkass were expelled.Stalin, from neighboring Georgia, hated Chechen. He divided Chechnya, creating the republic of Ingushetia. Then, in July 1937, his secret police, NKVD, shot 14,000 Chechen.In 1944, Stalin ordered the entire Chechen people rounded up and shipped in cattle cars to his Siberian concentration camps or dumped to perish into icy fields. Other Muslims followed: Ingush, Tatars, Karachai, Balkars.Neither bullets nor gas chambers were needed in Stalin's death camps. A third of the prisoners died each year from cold, starvation or disease in the concentration camps. In all, some 2.5 million Soviet Muslims were murdered by Stalin, "the Breaker of Nations," among them half of the Chechen people.In my new book, American Raj, I entitle the section on the Chechen, "Genocide in the Caucasus."Gulag survivors filtered back to Chechnya. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Chechen demanded independence like the Soviet republics.Instead, Boris Yeltsin's government invaded Chechnya, killing some 100,000 Chechen civilians through massive carpet bombing and shelling. Chechen leader Dzhokar Dudayev was assassinated, reportedly thanks to telephone homing equipment supplied to Moscow by the US National Security Agency. President Bill Clinton actually lauded Boris Yeltsin as "Russia's Abraham Lincoln."Incredibly, Chechen fighters managed to defeat Russia's army and won de facto independence.
The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate hut at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups—Henry Hazlitt
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
War on Terror: The Imperialist Roots of the Russia-Chechen Conflict
Friday, March 29, 2013
War on Cash and Informal Economy: Russia to ban Transactions over $10,000
Russia may ban cash payments for purchases of more than 300,000 rubles (around $10,000) starting in 2015. The move is expected to boost banks’ cash reserves and put a damper on Russia’s shadow economy. However, the middle class will most likely end up having to pay the price for the scheme.Moscow is looking to kill two birds with one stone: Firstly, it wants to bring some of the population’s “grey” income out of the shadow; secondly, it wants to increase the volume of cash reserves in the banks. The government’s bill will introduce the new rule to the State Duma. The document was prepared by the Ministry of Finance and approved by the government.
The restrictions on cash transactions will develop in two phases. In 2014, a ban on cash payments for purchases worth more than 600,000 rubles (about $19,500) will be introduced; the limit will then be halved to 300,000 rubles in 2015. Furthermore, the document introduces mandatory, cash-free, salary payments.Smaller companies with fewer than 35 employees will be the only exception, and trade companies will be able to pay salaries in cash if they employ no more than 20 people on staff.
Even now, cash withdrawals on payday account for around 85 percent of all ATM transactions. Moreover, in 2005–2011, cash flows more than quadrupled. According to Bank of Russia estimates, more than 90 percent of all commodity purchases in Russia are paid for in cash.The government is now trying to bring the shadow economy into the light and increase money flows into the treasury, according to Investcafe analyst Yekaterina Kondrashova. In her words, as soon as the new rules come into effect, those using unofficial wage payment schemes will encounter certain difficulties, although there could be some ways to circumvent the law.
The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the National Anticorruption Committee estimate the market for money laundering and cash conversions at somewhere between 3.5 and 7 trillion rubles ($113–230 billion) — about 60 percent of the Russian federal budget.Rosstat reports that the volume of the shadow economy (“grey” money from tax evasion, compensations paid as “cash in envelopes” and violations of currency and foreign trade regulations) is at least 15 percent of the GDP, according to Ricom-Trust senior analyst Vladislav Zhukovsky.Given the substantial criminal activity and illegal entrepreneurship, the grey and black economies account for 50–65 percent of GDP. Even former Central Bank Chief Sergey Ignatyev had to admit that about $50 billion was taken out of Russia illegally in 2012 alone.
There is another side to the move toward plastic, however. Cash-free payments will result in higher prices for some goods and services. The middle class will suffer the most, because the “risk group” includes property and automobile transactions. The luxury segment will also be affected, including customized tours.The problem is that Russian banks charge commissions ranging from 2–4 percent of the total amount of cash-free transfers. Sberbank charges up to 2 percent, says Irina Tyurina, spokesperson for the Russian Union of Travel Agencies.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Cyprus: The Mouse that Roared
The banks would be instantly insolvent, since they could only muster 10 percent of the cash they owe their befuddled customers. Neither would the enormous tax increase needed to bail everyone out be at all palatable. No: the only thing the Fed could do — and this would be in their power — would be to print enough money to pay off all the bank depositors. Unfortunately, in the present state of the banking system, the result would be an immediate plunge into the horrors of hyperinflation.
Friday, March 22, 2013
Cyprus: From Deposit Taxes to Capital Controls; Russian Intervention Next?
The European Union gave Cyprus till Monday to raise the billions of euros it needs to secure an international bailout or face a collapse of its financial system that could push it out of the euro currency zone.In a sign it was at least preparing for the worst, the Cypriot government sought powers on Thursday to impose capital controls to stem a flood of funds leaving the island if there is no deal before banks reopen following this week's shutdown.
As Europe wakes up to what could be a tumultuous day, Handelsblatt reports that the ECB has decided that, due to the "great danger" of a bank run once they reopen next week, it will enforce capital controls independently of Cypriot (elected) officials. With perhaps a nod towards negotiating some ELA funding for Cypriot banks next week (if the government accepts this ECB-enforced 'program'), the rather stunning restrictions on people's private property include:-Freezing Savings - no time-frame (it's not your money anymore)-Make bank transfers dependent on Central Bank approval (a money tzar?)-Lower ATM withdrawal limits (spend it how we say?)The capital controls will be designed "so that citizens have access to sufficient cash to go about their lives." So, there it is, a European Union imposed decision on just how much money each Cypriot can spend per day. Wasn't it just last week, we were told Europe is fixed?
One Russian bank, Alfa Bank, estimates that $70 billion of illegal capital flight from Russia in the past two decades may have found its way to Cyprus.Moody's rating agency said last week Russian banks had about $12 billion placed with Cypriot banks at the end of 2012 and has estimated that Russian corporate deposits at Cypriot banks could be around $19 billion."We think that the $19 billion exposure is mostly wholesale - ie corporate," Eugene Tarzimanov, Senior Credit Officer at Moody's in Russia, told Reuters.Some of Russia's largest banks have some credit exposure to Cyprus. VTB, Russia's second-largest bank by assets, had $13.8 billion in assets and $374 million through its Cypriot subsidiary, Russian Commercial Bank, at the end of 2011.
From latest reports, the Cypriot banks might open on March 26th at the earliest. That’s two weeks after being shut down. That’s two weeks of unmet financial obligations, ie government employee salaries, public works financing, unpaid pensions etc etc…Expect unrest on the streets of MoscowThe EU/Germany are certainly aware that 95% of all Russian money goes through the Cypriot banks. Certainly they were well aware of the consequences this would lead to. Is this the first salvo in the new world war??
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Laffer Curve Russian Edition: 300K Entrepreneurs Quit over Taxes
Almost 300,000 self-employed Russians have quit business in Russia in the past three months due to social tax hikes, an Economics Ministry official said on Monday.From January 1, 2013, the Russian government doubled the annual fixed-sum social security tax for individual entrepreneurs to 36,000 rubles ($1,200), in a move that directly affected babysitters, housemaids, tutors, handymen and other self-employed Russian workers earning 50,000-100,000 rubles a year.“The new tariffs that came into force from January 1, 2013 and doubled the taxation base for fixed-rate payments reduced the number of individual entrepreneurs by 293,421 people between December 2012 and February 2013,” said Natalia Larionova, director of the ministry’s department for small-medium enterprise business and competition.That represents 7 percent of the total number of individual entrepreneurs registered in Russia, she said.
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Russia’s Entry to World Trade Organization will have Political Repercussions
Two major positive developments emanating from Russia.
One, Russians may have come to realize that state or crony capitalism has been doing them more than enough harm.
Signs of these have become evident with the latest election results (where Putin’s Party has lost the majority) and the unfolding street protests (over the election results) which could be portentous of a ‘Russian Spring’.
While displeasure over Vladimir Putin’s autocracy has led to a surge in communist followers, I’d say that this represents a default position for many, when seen from the perspective of Russia’s history, whom has traipsed from autocracy to communism and back to autocracy.
The Western concept of classical liberalism has hardly any influence to the Russians. Thus, free markets and economic freedom may seem as an alien concept.
But this is about to change dramatically, in my opinion.
As compliment to education, one way to introduce classical liberalism is to get people to feel the benefits from its exposure. Put differently, once people come to realize the benefits of freer domestic and external trade, then more will be demanded. And this will be manifested via political actions or policies.
And changes happens on the margins.
chart from tradingeconomics.com
The deepening of globalization trends in the 1990s accompanied by the collapse of the USSR (1991) has already been boosting Russian exports and imports.
Russia’s external trade consists of exports mostly dependent on natural resources and defense equipment (80% of total) while imports have been machinery, transport equipment, plastics, medicines, iron and steel, consumer goods, meat.
Since the transition away from USSR model and the desire to tap world markets, Russia has applied for WTO in 1993.
Timeline below of Russia’s WTO application from the BBC.
Also it is important to note that benefits accrued from Russia’s gradual opening of trade with the world has led them to pursue the WTO membership.
Thus, the approval of Russia’s membership to the World Trade Organization functions as the second and most important positive change.
Writes the China Daily,
Russia finally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Friday, after 18 years of effort.
The world's 11th biggest economy is the last of the G20 countries to join the WTO and became its 154th member. Russia's entry means the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are now fully represented in the WTO.
Nigerian Trade Minister Olusegun Olutoyin Aganga struck a gavel to announce that the 8thWTO ministerial meeting here had agreed to accept the bid. Russia had to first reach bilateral agreements with 57 of its current 153 members to secure their support.
Like China, there will be mounting pressures from the collision of political forces from the escalating bottom-up forces vis-Ã -vis those currently benefiting from top-down political institutions.
Again like in China, an inevitable decisive choice would have to be made to tailorfit the politics with the economy: Either a return to communism to reinforce current political institutional arrangements along with the closing of their economies, or an evolution to a more representative form of government that would flow along with greater economic freedom.
And technology will play a crucial role in ascertaining the path to the resolution of these transitional conflicts.
Also, if the evolving trends will flow to the latter, then the important geopolitical implications would mean lesser risk of military confrontations, as political priorities will shift towards enforcing trade activities than to engage in brinkmanship politics which are premised on the politics of plunder that has encouraged conflicts.
When goods don’t cross the border, warned the great Frédéric Bastiat, armies will.
Apparently, the world seems to exhibit more signs in the acknowledgment of Bastiat’s wisdom, thus should be applauded and welcomed.
Overtime, if political economic trends persist on the path of economic freedom then Russia should be a prospective buy.
Monday, December 05, 2011
Russia’s Putin Loses Majority, Resurgence of Communists
Russia’s Vladmir Putin’s leadership appears on the edges.
From Reuters,
Russian voters have dealt Vladimir Putin's ruling party a heavy blow by cutting its parliamentary majority in an election that showed growing unease with his domination of the country as he prepares to reclaim the presidency.
Incomplete results showed Putin's United Russia was struggling even to win 50 percent of the votes in Sunday's election, compared with more than 64 percent four years ago. Opposition parties said even that outcome was inflated by fraud.
Although Putin is still likely to win a presidential election in March, Sunday's result could dent the authority of the man who has ruled for almost 12 years with a mixture of hardline security policies, political acumen and showmanship but was booed and jeered after a martial arts bout last month.
United Russia had 49.94 percent of the votes after results were counted in 70 percent of voting districts for the election to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. Exit polls had also put United Russia below 50 percent.
And desperation against Putin’s autocratic crony capitalism has fueled the resurgence of communists.
From another Reuters article,
The Communist Party (CPRF) for most Russians evokes images of bemedaled war veterans and the elderly poor deprived of pensions and left behind in a "New Russia" of glitzy indulgence. Large swathes of society have appeared beyond the reach of the red flag and hammer and sickle.
Not that the Communist Party's doubling of its vote to about 20 percent presages any imminent assault on power. The memories of repression in the old communist Soviet Union, the labor camps and the "Red Terror" are still too fresh for many. But vote they did, if perhaps with gritted teeth.
"With sadness I remember how I passionately vowed to my grandfather I would never vote for the Communists," Yulia Serpikova, 27, a freelance location manager in the film industry, told Reuters. "It's sad that with the ballot in hand I had to tick the box for them to vote against it all."
For many Russians disillusioned by rampant corruption and a widening gap between rich and poor, the communists represented the only credible opposition to Putin's United Russia.
For some, desperation means jumping from the frying pan to the fire. The communist resurgence, who seem to base their preference by nostalgia, never seem to realize that Putin has been a product communism who used his position to snare power and to shape the current system.
They should rather realize that economic freedom and free trade will give them more chances of attaining prosperity than to depend on politicians, who will use all sorts of power grabs to enhance their status and privileges at the people’s expense.
Tradeoffs are a fact of life. The choice of politics over markets means greater risks of gaming of the system, corruption, wealth and power inequality, cronyism and poverty. It's a lesson that most people have yet to learn and digest.