Showing posts with label US politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US politics. Show all posts

Sunday, July 19, 2020

ECQ Policy: A Stunning Revelation by the DTI Chief! DoH’s Moving Goalposts, Oligarchy or Plutocracy?



If public opinion is ultimately responsible for the structure of government, it is also the agency that determines whether there is freedom or bondage. There is virtually only one factor that has the power to make people unfree—tyrannical public opinion. The struggle for freedom is ultimately not resistance to autocrats or oligarchs but resistance to the despotism of public opinion. It is not the struggle of the many against the few but of minorities—sometimes of a minority of but one man—against the majority. The worst and most dangerous form of absolutist rule is that of an intolerant majority. Such is the conclusion arrived at by Tocqueville and John Stuart Mill—Ludwig von Mises

In this issue

ECQ Policy: A Stunning Revelation by the DTI Chief! DoH’s Moving Goalposts, Oligarchy or Plutocracy?
I. A Stunning Revelation on the ECQ Policy from the DTI Chief!
II. Statistics and Politics: The Moving Goalposts of the DoH’s Policy Objectives
III. We Consistently Warned About COVID-19 Risks and its Economic Consequences
IV. Oligarchy or Plutocracy? It’s about the Leviathan State
V. The Agency Problem: The Fitch Warnings on the Non-Renewal of the ABS-CBN Franchise

ECQ Policy: A Stunning Revelation by the DTI Chief! DoH’s Moving Goalposts, Oligarchy or Plutocracy?

The DTI chief was a critical force behind the recent decision by the political leadership to keep the NCR at GCQ.

It’s not just economics, the DoH has also been using selective statistics to move goalposts.

I Told You So Moment: From January to March, we consistently warned of the COVID-19 outbreak and the economic consequences.

The difference between the oligarchy and plutocracy explained.

Credit rating agencies are not just about rating economic performance.

I. A Stunning Revelation on the ECQ Policy from the DTI Chief!

Continuing from last week’s discussion on the lockdown policy…

From GMA News (July 15): The Philippine economy cannot afford another lockdown, Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said Wednesday. “‘Pag nagkaroon tayo ng phase na talagang mahigpit na pagsasara.... the economy will collapse talaga ‘pag tinuloy pa ‘yung masyadong mahigpit na lockdown,” Lopez said in a virtual press conference after the televised Pre-SONA forum. “Therefore, ang direksyon natin is finding the balance on economy, health and safety of citizens,” he said.

The DTI chief’s warning came before the leadership announced the extension of the General Community Quarantine until the end of July in Metro Manila and most localities in the Philippines.

Did the DTI chief just confess? Did he admit that the ECQ pushed the Philippine economy to the brink of collapse, thereby have been vehemently resisting an extension of the strict lockdown policy?

Absolutely stunning!!

What was the likely basis for this conclusion?

From the ABS-CBN (July 16): Some 30 percent of businesses in the Philippines have closed since the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Department of Trade and Industry said Thursday. Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez said the agency has yet to determine if the establishments were fully or temporarily closed due to the virus that shuttered businesses in Metro Manila for 11 weeks, leading to the first contraction of the Philippine economy in 22 years. Around 20 percent are fully operating while 50 percent have partially reopened, Lopez said. Of those who have partially resumed operations, the income of 90 percent were down, he added.

For simplicity's sake, let us assume a proportional distribution of the workforce with firms, regardless of the industry. Given the over 40 million labor force, how much would be permanently unemployed if only half of the 30% of enterprises closed for good?

And even for the firms that have been fully operating, given the lack of mobility, and the mountains of regulatory barriers erected, aside from the widespread economic disruption, how much productivity has been lost and will have to suffer?

This staggering statistics on closures, if anywhere true, would represent a historic dislocation of supply and demand (Say’s Law).  Huge credit issues will also undermine or plague the financial system because of this.

And the DTI’s data signifies the initial impact.

Because the market economy represents a complex and dynamic process, yet to be manifested are the second and third-order effects from the action-reaction feedback loops.

And bailouts through massive monetary inflation and leveraging up of the balance sheet and other interventions that would spur more misallocation of resources will solve this imbroglio?

If the small business loans from the US Paycheck Protections Program (PPP) as part of the USD 2 trillion CARES act bailout package serves an example, its distribution has been slanted towards the undeserving, to billionaires, political protégés, and even to some (state-owned) Chinese companies!
And these events are supposedly bullish for the economy?

Even the DTI chief seems to be in a panic!

Good luck to the faithful.

II. Statistics and Politics: The Moving Goalposts of the DoH’s Policy Objectives

The following excerpt should serve as another prime example of a normative “what ought to be” claim. (All bold emphasis mine)

In defense of the administration’s policy, this report from the ABS-CBN news (July 15): The Philippines has "successfully flattened" the COVID-19 pandemic curve since April, the country's health chief said Wednesday, even as more cases of the disease have been recorded in recent days. Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the conclusion was based on the longer COVID-19 case doubling rate and mortality doubling time. "We have successfully flattened the curve since April," he said during a virtual presser with reporters past noon.

Then, later, the retraction …

From the Inquirer (July 15):  Health Secretary Francisco Duque III was referring to the longer case doubling time for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) or the period it takes for the number of confirmed cases to become two-fold, and the readiness of the Philippines’ health system when he said the country has flattened the curve since April. Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said this on Wednesday after Duque drew flak on social media for his statement on Tuesday on flattening the COVID-19 curve. Duque later retracted the statement. Vergeire explained that flattening the curve should be interpreted with two indicators, such as the case doubling time and the readiness of the health system in responding to the pandemic.

This marks the second reversal by the DoH chief following an earlier claim the Philippines was undergoing a second wave.
The Health Secretary had been technically right. Partly. In the context of the base effect, the doubling time of an outbreak, say from 10 to 20 cases compared to 10,000 to 20,000 cases, would naturally slow.

But this assertion would be misleading. By making selective use of statistics while ignoring the others, and more importantly, distorting its presentation, the intent had seemingly been to defend the effectiveness of their policies.

But since most of the data, including the doubling rate, disputed this claim, the public easily called the bluff and compelled a retraction.

The above chart shows that the doubling rate of deaths has indeed been slowing, but continues to rise. In recent days, however, instead of bending, it has begun to break this trend to the upside. And seen from the 7-day moving averages, confirmed infections and death cases have spiraled upwards, which translates to the absence of bending or flattening of the curve (for now).

The DOH also said that the readiness of the health system matters.

But…

From Philstar (July 15): Most hospitals in Metro Manila, Cebu City and Iloilo have almost reached their full bed capacity for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, according to the Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. PHAPi president Rustico Jimenez said there is a need to decongest hospitals of patients who can be transferred to quarantine facilities, but do not want to. “These areas have the highest number of cases and are nearing their full capacity. Other areas are still manageable, unless the cases will continue to surge,” Jimenez told The STAR.

And the WHO has pressed the DoH to facilitate the release of testing results.

From the Inquirer (July 15) The World Health Organization (WHO) urged Philippine health officials to conduct verification of COVID-19 cases in a “much faster scale,” noting that quicker reporting of infections can help the public take precautionary measures more effectively. Dr. Rabindra Abeyasinghe, WHO’s representative to the Philippines, underscored on Tuesday the importance of expediting the verification process of COVID-19 cases.  “This is what we have been urging the DOH [Department of Health] to do and we are seeing an improvement in that information sharing but this is a process and we are hoping that this validation of information can be done on a much faster scale so that information can be shared readily with the public,” Abeyasinghe said during a Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines (FOCAP) online forum. “If this is done, the public can take measures to protect themselves more effectively…In this outbreak, we’ve seen that what is most important is speedy contract tracing. To get an initial speedy contract tracing and make quarantining and isolation possible, you need to be able to get testing results very early,” he added.

How much of the increases in cases and deaths were from the late release of testing results due to bureaucratic red tape?

Despite its significance, statistics won’t show us such unrecorded events.

After the aborted cherrypicking of statistics, moving the goalpost and the strawman fallacy comes next.

From the Inquirer (July 18): Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the government’s response was still “effective,” since millions have been spared from contracting the illness. Malacañang on Friday defended the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, as cases breached an earlier projection of 60,000 by the end of July. Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the government’s response was still “effective,” since millions have been spared from contracting the illness. “It’s working. Because if we didn’t take steps, then millions would have fallen sick from COVID-19 like what UP (the University of the Philippines) initially predicted. It’s working, because only a small number died from the disease,” Roque said.

So the moving of goalposts applies not only to economic targets but also on health policy goals. Of course, such measures, we've been told, should be seen as a sign of success/effectiveness.

Whether in health or economics or other social activities, statistics has served as a convenient tool for the advancement of political agendum rather than explaining reality.

As an aside, given the spate of surging COVID-19 cases and deaths, will the political leadership submit to the recommendations of the health authorities to impose a second-round of lockdowns in the NCR against the entreaties of the economic managers?

III. We Consistently Warned About COVID-19 Risks and its Economic Consequences

Ever since the COVID-19 outbreak in China that impelled their government to lockdown almost half of their population in late January to early February, we have consistently been warning of the risks of an outbreak here, as well as the prospective policy from it, and the likely economic consequences.

Here are selected excerpts from previous outlooks. [bold and bold italics original]

The first few cases may have sown the seeds of the outbreak, and the impact of China’s lockdown. ….

The Philippines government reported not only its second nCoV case today, but this was the first death registered outside China.

Just a thought experiment: what could happen if just one of the nCoV finds its way to the high density, population packed, depressed area in the NCR? ...

Because the war on people translates to the disruption to the global division of labor, shocks to the demand and supply chains will occur.


In response to the denial by local authorities on the spread of nCov…

If there is anything steady, change is it. But instead of small oscillations, the nCoV, with its present multiplicative process, may bring about fat-tailed risks or rare events that may produce large shocks…

Why then should we discount the risk of the escalation of this tailed risk event to the domestic economy?  Because we have been told so? …

The strange part is that who is to tell what defines or qualifies as fake news or misinformation from real events? Is it something really unlinked to the issue/pathology? Or is it something said that goes against the palate or interest of the establishment? Or is it the deliberate manufacturing of evidence?


The complexities of the viral outbreak…

Aside from complexity, issues related to government responses, transmission channels (e.g. airborne or not?), detectability, availability of applicable testing kits, medical supplies and workers, quarantine centers, the number and the quality of public health centers, the monitoring, surveillance and control measures, the accuracy of disclosed cases, transparency of information, public awareness and precautionary measures, as well as, compliance with medical treatments, and many more, have influenced the rate and scale of dispersion of the coronavirus.


In reaction to the proposed festivities to revive tourism and shopping mall activities…

Is the DOH certain that the public will practice their prescribed precautionary measures? What if they don’t? Are they not sacrificing the public weal for temporary GDP and taxes? Have they considered the probability of an outbreak? If so, will this be GDP and tax revenue positive?

Are people just dollops of statistics to them?...

All it takes is ONE error, probably from an undetected super spreader, similar to the UK and the South Korean experience.


In a rare episode, we used the combination of positive and normative economics to predict the use of testing and a coming lockdown.    

The most efficient way to contain the spread and mitigate the impact of the virus could be through aggressive testing….

It is easy to say that there have been no infections; that is because no testing produces no incidence of infections.

Has the DOH adopted a ‘DON’T test, DON’T tell’ policy? …

Instead of transparency, the next course of action may be about the DOH controlling the flow of information for political goals.   


It’s not about cases, but about clusters now!

To paraphrase Ben Hunt of the Episilon Theory said, "case, case, case, cluster, cluster... then boom!"

The tendency for authoritarian regimes has been to cover-up COVID19 incidences. …

In any case, once a cluster or clusters appear, do the Philippines have sufficient public health facilities to accommodate an epidemic?

Or because of this, will the DOH adapt a Xi-style lockdown?


On March 8, the Philippine leadership placed the entire nation under public health emergency.

On March 12, the Philippine leadership announced the community quarantine of Metro Manila, which took effect on March 15th.

Effective March 17th, the entire Luzon was placed under the ECQ.

The rest, as they say, is history.

Oh, in fairness, the improved testing now said to reach over a million, seems like a step in the right direction.

IV. Oligarchy or Plutocracy? It’s about the Leviathan State

Oligarchy, according to Merriam Webster, is a government by the few. The other definition is a government in which a small group exercises control especially for corrupt and selfish purposes.

According to the Dean of the Austrian School of Economics, Murray N. Rothbard*: 

But while, as in the lynch mob, the majority can become actively tyrannical and aggressive, the normal and continuing condition of the State is oligarchic rule: rule by a coercive elite which has managed to gain control of the State machinery. There are two basic reasons for this: one is the inequality and division of labor inherent in the nature of man, which gives rise to an “Iron Law of Oligarchy” in all of man’s activities; and second is the parasitic nature of the State enterprise itself.

*Murray N. Rothbard, FOR A NEW LIBERTY THE LIBERTARIAN MANIFESTO p.60-61

Oligarchy exists in all forms of modern government wrote Professor Robert Higgs**:

In the modern world, many people demand a voice in how they are ruled. In reality, however, every actual system of rule in a large society is and must be an oligarchy. Neither democracy in the simple sense nor autocracy in the sense of strict dictatorship or monarchy is workable. But oligarchy, a system in which a relatively small group of cooperating rulers (though it may have a nominal head ostensibly in charge) and their key financial supporters applies the nuts and bolts of rule is workable, indeed, indispensable. So, whether by design or by piecemeal pushing and pulling, this is the form that all modern governments take.

**Robert Higgs, On the “Participatory” Part of “Participatory Fascism”, Independent Institute, August 27, 2018

A rule by a coercive elite translates to the fact that there can be no dismantling of oligarchy, there can only be a transfer of political power.

Meanwhile, plutocracy is defined by Merriam Webster, a government of wealthy or a controlling class of the wealthy.  

Plutocracy is a political form in which the real controlling force is wealth, the great American classical liberal William Graham Sumner. 

Mr. Graham further explained***:

The principle of plutocracy is that money buys whatever the owner of money wants, and the class just described are made to be its instruments…Modern plutocrats buy their way through elections and legislatures, in the confidence of being able to get powers which will recoup them for all the outlay and yield an ample surplus besides.

Plutocrats use political machinery and legislation for personal and political gains.

More from Mr. Graham:

A plutocrat is a man who, having the possession of capital, and having the power of it at his disposal, uses it, not industrially, but politically; instead of employing laborers, he enlists lobbyists. Instead of applying capital to land, he operates upon the market by legislation, by artificial monopoly, by legislative privileges; he creates jobs, and erects combinations, which are half political and half industrial; he practises upon the industrial vices, makes an engine of venality, expends his ingenuity, not on processes of production, but on "knowledge of men," and on the tactics of the lobby. The modern industrial system gives him a magnificent field, one far more profitable, very often, than that of legitimate industry.

Plutocracy resonates with crony capitalism.

***William Graham Sumner, “Democracy and Plutocracy” (n.d.) The Ruling Class and the State: An Anthology from the OLL Collection, Online Library of Liberty

At the end of the day, the common denominator of oligarchy and plutocracy is the control of the state.

V. The Agency Problem: The Fitch Warnings on the Non-Renewal of the ABS-CBN Franchise

As previously discussed, the ratchet effect or the use of a crisis to expand political power and control of society by governments, is epitomized by the ratification of the Anti-Terror Law and the non-renewal of the ABS-CBN franchise.


This short note will not be about the ABS-CBN franchise but the political slant exhibited by a subsidiary of a foreign credit rating agency, Fitch Solutions.

From the Inquirer (July 8): London-based think tank Fitch Solutions has warned of heightened investment risks in the Philippine media and telecoms space, citing the “politicization” of this industry amid the government’s orders to shut down Sky Direct and ABS-CBN Corp. The National Telecommunication Commission (NTC)’s “apparent ability to be influenced by the government continues to be a key impediment to foreign investor sentiment, and has also made the telecoms landscape difficult for both new entrants and existing players,” Fitch Solutions said in a research note dated July 7. The research also cited the slow pace of structural reforms in this industry.

The ABS-CBN controversy has long been in place, yet this warning from Fitch Solutions was published two days before the House vote. Fitch, thus, attempted to influence the outcome.

Much of the public has been unaware of the principal-agent problem or conflict of interests in the shaping of credit ratings that are not only determined by economic conditions but also by political factors, which benefits these credit rating agencies.

In short, one can’t trust the output of credit rating agencies.

Sunday, October 14, 2018

US Prez Trump: Fed’s Gone Crazy! DOF Chief: We’re Being Punished by the Fed! Prez Duterte: Public Should Brace for Tough Economic Times!


To try to create our own reality is both futile and destructive.  You certainly have the right to go on believing whatever you want to believe, but reality doesn’t care about your wants or beliefs.  Reality will deliver negative consequences to the well-meaning, ignorant individual as surely as it will to the most malevolent, stubborn person.  Not once has reality excused anyone for good motives, so consistency is essential when it comes to an accurate perception of reality—Robert Ringer


In this issue:

US Prez Trump: Fed’s Gone Crazy! DOF Chief: We’re Being Punished by the Fed! Prez Duterte: Public Should Brace for Tough Economic Times!
-US President Trump: Fed’s Gone Crazy; DOF’s Dominguez Finds the FED as a Convenient Scapegoat!
-Tightening is a Global Phenomenon, Asian Equity Boom Morphing into a Grand Bust!
-Falling Currencies and Rising Rates Triggers Cracks on ASEAN’s Fundamentals
-Don’t Fight the FED: US Markets have been Fighting the FED! IMF Warns of the Growing Risks of a Great Depression!
-Stock Market Manipulation Backfires: China’s SSEC Crashed by 7.6%! Will Xi Jinping Put 2.0 Emerge? What Tools Left for the BSP?
-Duterte: Public Should Brace for Tough Times, A Fiscal Crisis Not Oil Prices Will Be its Cause; Trade Deficit? NEDA Proposes More Money Printing!

US Prez Trump: Fed’s Gone Crazy! DOF Chief: We’re Being Punished by the Fed! Prez Duterte: Public Should Brace for Tough Economic Times!

US President Trump: Fed’s Gone Crazy; DOF’s Dominguez Finds the FED as a Convenient Scapegoat!

When US stocks started the feel the pinch of the financial tightening, US President Donald Trump mocked the US Federal Reserve “crazy”. The $64 trillion quote: "I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy

Because Mr. Trump has owned repeatedly the record-breaking feat of the US stock markets, it would be natural for him to defend what he sees as his “trophy”. Also, the US mid-term election is less than a month away, and an upheaval in financial markets may harm the prospects of the GOP/Republicans maintaining control of both houses of the Congress.

More importantly, Trump’s record deficit spending would require immense financing.  Thus, President Trump’s rants essentially signaled to the FED of his administration’s requirement of sustained access to free money.

Mr. Trump hasn’t been the only political personality who opposed the FED’s actions. Overseas, since the draining of US dollar liquidity has been felt most by emerging markets, officials from several nations have aired concerns of the US Federal Reserve’s actions on them.

Last June, Reserve Bank of India’s Governor Urjit Patel, writing in the Financial Times, warned that the US Fed’s balance sheet contraction “proved to be a “double whammy” for global markets. Dollar funding has evaporated, notably from sovereign debt markets.” India’s rupee hit a record low last October 9.

In the same month, Governor Perry Warjiyo of Bank Indonesia seconded India’s Patel call stating that the Fed should consider “slowing the pace of stimulus withdrawal would support global growth”. Indonesia’s rupiah dropped to Asian Crisis low the other week.

This week, the Philippines joined the bandwagon of emerging market officials resisting the US Fed's actions. 

In speaking to the CNBC at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bali, Indonesia, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez said thatthe U.S. (Federal Reserve) should consider its actions because "it affects the entire world, capital flows back to the U.S., and we're trying our darndest here", and we’re "being punished for something we're doing right."

"Being punished for something we're doing right." Truly?

Excessive domestic money printing to finance "spend, spend and spend" and the race to build supply IS Chairman Jerome Powell led Federal Reserve’s fault? 

And wouldn't it be cool to use the Fed as a convenient scapegoat for the unforeseen consequences of the massive corralling of resources from the private sector to the Neo-socialist crony state?

And that’s not all.

“Spend, spend and spend”, said the DOF chief won’t be hindered by tightening: “The Philippines will not cut its infrastructure spending just to be cautious about its deficit spending, he said, but instead may look into dialing down on non-infrastructure expenditure. "Infrastructure for us is a real critical investment that we have to make," he said, adding that the Philippines only averaged 2.3 percent of GDP in infrastructure spending in the past 50 years. "Our economy's choking. We have very bad traffic situation, our ports and airports need to be upgraded ... Some time in the future, we will have to re-think that this is the last thing we are going to cut," Dominguez said.”

How about instead of choking from the lack of infrastructure, choking from debt, inflation and a surge in financial costs?

So the National Government will push its deficit spending to the edge of a fiscal crisis then blame the FED for it!

The FED has become a favorite whipping boy.!

Tightening is a Global Phenomenon, Asian Equity Boom Morphing into a Grand Bust!

Here’s the reality
Figure 1

Balance sheet contraction has been more the work of the FED. The Bank of Japan has been into it too.  As the world’s de facto currency standard, perhaps the FED may have influenced the latter. (figure 1, upper window)

There is no free lunch. The huge demand for access to free money in the face of low savings rates, balance sheet constraints of the banking system, and central banks have been pressuring yields higher.

The prolific Doug Noland of the Credit Bubble Bulletin has the numbers: “Global bond yields are much higher than in early-February. Argentine 10-year yields have surged 360 bps to 9.66%. Yields are up 685 bps in Turkey (21.1%), 340 bps in Pakistan (11.56%), 326 bps in Lebanon, 250 bps in Indonesia, 157 bps in Russia, 152 bps in Hungary, 114 bps in Brazil, 112 bps in Philippines, 105 bps in Peru, 82 bps in South Africa, 72 bps in Colombia and 56 bps in Mexico. And these are sovereign yields. Corporate debt has performed even worse, with notable weakness in Asian high-yield and dollar-denominated corporates more generally. And it's not as if European finance is sound. Italian 10-year yields have jumped 160 bps to 3.58%. This ongoing spike in global yields has certainly placed intense pressure on leveraged speculation.”

Indeed. Intense pressure on leveraged speculation has blighted Asian risk assets.  

China’s Shanghai Composite, down 7.6%, suffered the most. The other major losers were the national bourses of Japan (-4.58%), Australia (-4.67%), South Korea (-4.66%) and Taiwan (-4.48%). The region’s average return for the week was -2.84%. Only four of the 19 bourses eluded the Risk OFF. (figure 1, middle window)

This week’s meltdown has aggravated on the persisting weakness of the region’s equity performance.

The average year to date performance of 19 national benchmarks was -7.43% where only India and New Zealand have defied the region’s dominant sentiment. (figure 1, lowest window)

China (-21.17%), Philippines (-18.15%), Laos (-16.55%), Bangladesh (+.31%), Hong Kong (-13.76%) and South Korea (-12.39%) spearheaded the region's losers. 

So Asia’s financial assets (stocks, bonds, and currencies) have been smacked hard from the ongoing tightening process.

Falling Currencies and Rising Rates Triggers Cracks on ASEAN’s Fundamentals

Prices reflect on underlying concerns over fundamentals and the real economy.

The Nikkei Asia reported that Indonesia’s largest developer, along with 15 others, has been penalized for late reporting:  “Indonesian stock exchange authorities have rebuked the country's largest property developer, Lippo Karawaci, for failing to file financial reports on time, as concerns mount over deteriorating cash flow and the plunging rupiah. Lippo Karawaci was one of 15 companies to receive a warning from the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Friday for missing its reporting deadline. Its main subsidiary, Lippo Cikarang, was also warned over its failure to file. This is the second time in recent years that the property developer has failed to submit its financial report on time, according to an IDX official. (bold added)

And this dynamic should be expected throughout ASEAN. Reason? Intensifying leveraging or Record Debt levels!

From the TheStarOnline (September 18, 2018): [bold added] “The credit quality of Asean’s corporate sector is weakening again as capital spending resumes after three years of decline.  “That spending growth coincides with slowing earnings growth, pushing debt at listed companies in Asean to an all-time high of nearly US$700bil,” said S&P GlobalRatings credit analyst Xavier Jean in a statement. The findings are based on two articles published by S&P Global Ratings, titled “Credit FAQ: Asean Companies Maintain Good Liquidity Despite A US$700bil Debt Load” and “Asean Conglomerates Continue Investing In Growth At The Cost Of Leverage.” The FAQ article is based on the analysis of nearly 2,400 listed companies in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.”

More from the same article: “Companies are now spending an average of 80 cents for each dollar of cash they generate, compared with about 60 cents in 2016.  However, more spending is buying less growth, with returns on capital now in their seventh consecutive year of decline across the region. It added that leverage in the corporate sector has increased in almost every country, except Indonesia, where it is slightly decreasing amid higher earnings in  commodity-related sectors. Corporate leverage as a proportion of profits is at multi-year highs in Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.

To consider Indonesia has one of the lowest leverage in the region. Yet, relatively having low leverage hasn't been enough to stave off financial instability! (see figure 2, upper window)

Don’t Fight the FED: US Markets have been Fighting the FED! IMF Warns of the Growing Risks of a Great Depression!
 
Figure 2

Well, Asia’s grim performance hasn’t been in isolation, it has resonated with the world.

Since the first bout of downside volatility emerged at the end of January 2018, US markets have “decoupled” with the world.  (figure 2, middle window)

Last week’s turmoil simply “recoupled” or brought back the US equity markets in line with the actions of the world markets.  US benchmarks Dow Industrials, S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 fell steeply by 4.19%, 4.1%, 3.74%and 5.23%, respectively.

From this perspective, the over-liquefied, over-leveraged, over-extended, and overvalued global markets, nurtured from an extended environment of free money, reacted naturally to the transition brought about by the US FED’s normalization or the removal of monetary accommodation.

In the context of asset prices, if (monetary) inflation is about more money chasing too few securities, then shouldn’t the opposite hold true once such conditions have stopped or reduced? So why should this come as a surprise? For example, M3 has been correlated with the Philippine PhiSYx: it leads the former with a time difference. (figure 2 lowest window). The slumping M3 has been accompanying the decline of the Phisix.

That said, tightening liquidity has been a global phenomenon which has begun to impact the US.

It affected first the “periphery”, the emerging markets, then spread to the “core”, developed economies. As the largest financial market, the US represents the core within the core.  

After all, a globalized world means entrenched interconnectivity; enhanced and deepened by technological advancements. Sopolicy transmission effects from the US Federal Reserve come as a process that operates on a time lag.

This is the “periphery to the core” transmission mechanism.

And please do note that last week’s magnified global volatility marks the second episode of in eight months! And atestament to a disorderly transition has been the increasing frequency of market convulsions and the narrowing breadth of positive returns in global markets.

The traditionally blind IMF warned a week earlier of the escalating risks of a “second great depression”. From Express.co.uk (October 4, 2018): “THE world economy is at risk of another financial CRASH, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned as the international organisation spoke of “large challenges” ahead “to prevent a second Great Depression”. In a new report, downcast predictions pointed to cheap interest rates and surging debt levels as potential triggers for economic chaos”.

The IMF repeated their admonition this week but alluded to trade war as a possible trigger: From Express.co.uk (October 10, 2018): “THE world’s economy is at risk of being crippled by “dangerous undercurrents” in the global financial system, a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned. The IMF detailed how further escalation in the burgeoning trade war could see investors spooked and “significantly harm global growth” with a sudden sell-off in financial markets.”

Interestingly, using the Games of Thrones as an analogy, Indonesian President Joko Widodo warned that “winter is coming” in reference to an economic gloom from a trade war.

Everyone seems to be looking for excuses for the coming fallout.

This brings us back to Mr. Trump’s yammering against the FED.

In essence, the US Federal Reserve led by its Chairman Jerome Powell may have taken a page from predecessor William McChesney Martin who famously took “the punch bowl away just as the party gets going”.

And President Trump may be worried that this may expose the fragile underbelly of the stock market. Ironically, a presidential candidate named Donald Trump lampooned the stock market as a “fat ugly bubble”!

And while President Trump and emerging market officials have been railing against the FED, it has been the US stock market that has been “fighting the FED”. 

As a popular Wall Street axiom says, “Don’t fight the Fed!”

Unsustainable relationships won’t last. Something is about give.

Stock Market Manipulation Backfires: China’s SSEC Crashed by 7.6%! Will Xi Jinping Put 2.0 Emerge? What Tools Left for the BSP?

Figure 3

Aside from the Philippines, manipulating stock markets have been pervasive in China.

The most interesting reaction from the week’s global turmoil has been the Chinese bellwether, the Shanghai Composite, which crashed (-7.6%) to 2014 lows. 

When the Chinese bubble deflated in 2015, through the “Xi Jinping put”, the central government have intervened intensely, directly and indirectly, to support the stock market.

On the supply side, interventions included imposing various limits in selling, repressing sellers, arresting people who spread were “spreading rumors” and more.

On the demand side, state enterprises, along with financial institutions, were mobilized to buoy the stock market, by bidding up shares of index sensitive firms. The “National Team”, as labeled by media, has done so to date. 

Looks familiar?

But instead of a market-based recovery, the imbalances brought about by such interventions, through the misallocation of funds, have only mounted.

Naturally, diversion of funds from operations or capital expenditures would lead to financial constraints.  To sustain operations and or implement the national government’s behest, balance sheets of the participating firms would have to swell via increased leveraging or transfers from taxpayers.  

So not only were funds diverted for unproductive use, interventions amplified systemic credit risks, effectively nationalized listed firms, widened the discrepancy between prices and health conditions of capital and compounded on capital consumption. 

And by promoting manipulation, systemic corruption became entrenched into the system.

Yet, to kick the two-year can down the proverbial road imply a limit on such actions. And that end may have been reached. Repercussions from these were ventilated this year.

Last week’s crash punctuated its current downside trend. Retribution is here.

The moral: because the pricing system’s fundamental function is the coordination of supply and demand, deliberate distortions of the prices result to unintended consequences. More pointedly, desecration of the market’s pricing system will boomerang. And it has, in the case of China.

Unknown to most, China’s stock market bust in 2015 has had widespread political and economic ramifications.

Not only did the Chinese government support the stock market, but it also unleashed trillions of credit, mostly via Total Social Finance, in the next two years (USD 1.84 trillion in 2016, USD 3 trillion in 2017)! (figure 3, middle window)

The government implemented a considerable fiscal stimulus as a stabilization tool against the stock market crash! (figure 3 lowest window)

And the ring-fencing against China’s stock market collapse had been worldwide.

In early 2016, the Bank of Japan embraced negative interest rates while the European Central Bank expanded its negative interest rate policy regime. Addressing both domestic and possibly external factors, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas adapted its version of quantitative easing in late 2015.

Will there be a Xi Jinping Put 2.0? Will global central banks desist from further tightening or even reverse course?

But how will the BSP and the National Government respond to China financial meltdown?

Despite the 150 point rate increase, rates remain at a record low.  BSP’s QE remains on a milestone high. Fiscal stimulus, which has now transformed into an economic developmental model, continues to grow at an unprecedented pace. Public and private sector debt has been rocketing. Gross International Reserves continues to sputter.

With monetary and fiscal tools utilized to the maximum, which has now been revealing diminishing returns, what remains for contingencies?

Duterte: Public Should Brace for Tough Times, A Fiscal Crisis Not Oil Prices Will Be its Cause; Trade Deficit? NEDA Proposes More Money Printing!

Because of massive rescues, during last week’s Powell Tantrum the Philippine national benchmark, the PhiSYx was among the least affected (-1.04%). The peso also rallied (+.19%).

However, the brunt of liquidations occurred in the domestic Treasury market.

Figure 4

Excluding the 3-month bill, yields of Philippine treasuries rose across the curve with the most significant increases coming from the 2-year and 5-year maturities, which jumped by over 100 bps (1%)!!!  (figure 4, upper window)

Citing the rise of oil prices, this weekend the Philippine President asked the public to brace for tough economic times: “This is not the end of the story, guys,” he added. “You say we will suffer during my time. If things will move forward in accordance with the present calculations now, we will really suffer during my time.” (Italics added)

The coming “tough economic times” will hardly be brought about by oil prices.  Instead, a blow out in the fiscal deficits will.  Or a fiscal crisis will.

And that unwieldy public spending spree, financed partly by the BSP, has already contributed substantially to rising domestic prices, and the escalating effects of the crowding out syndrome in interest rates.  (figure 4, lower window)

Skyrocketing yields have not just been manifestations of mounting losses of the financial industry, the rapid tightening of financial conditions represent its most important signal.

The swiftness of rate increases enhances the odds of an economic and financial accident. Remember the FSR’s 3Rs (repricing, refinancing and repayment risks)?

Figure 5

While the DOF can blame the FED for its dollar illiquidity, it has to explain why the supply of dollars continues to seep out of the country. 

Despite the slowdown in import growth (11.04%) in August, it still outpaced the lackadaisical growth in exports (3.08%). The result?  From the Philippine Statistics Authority: the country’s balance of trade in goods (BoT-G) expanded to a $3.51 billion deficit in August 2018, from the $2.74 billion deficit in August 2017.  (figure 5, upper window)

Despite imports of capital goods, experts don’t even bother to ask how have these imports been financed? Well, the short answer is money printing by the BSP and by the banking system.

Not only does demand artificially created by credit expansion dilute on the purchasing power of the local currency, but it also drains the stock of USDs, through trade and current account deficits.

And The Fed IS the culprit here????

Oh, the slowdown in imports has echoed the actions of M3. With lesser money to buy stuff, import growth has been affected too! (figure 5, lower window)

Here is more proof why money is EVERYTHING to this government.

The NEDA proposes to mend the trade gap by making “financing more inclusive”. How so?

From the Inquirer (October 13, 2018), “Pernia said the Personal Property Security Act, among other government initiatives, would strengthen the legal framework for the use of personal property as collateral, and establishes a modern, centralized online collateral registry. This law was enacted on Aug. 17. “We expect this to make financing more accessible to Filipino SMEs, including export-oriented firms,” he said.”

Throwing money to exporters solves the problem? The banking system has been churning an incredible credit growth rate of 18-20%?  If 18% to 20% of credit growth hasn’t been delivering the goods, will 30%, 40% or 50% do the trick?

And what if the external demand and not financing is the problem? How would credit money solve that? Demand exporters to extend vendor financing to overseas buyers?

You see now why the Philippines, day in and day out, is becoming increasingly vulnerable to a fiscal/banking crisis?

Abraham Maslow once said, "if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”.

To apply to the Philippine government, "if all you have is a printing press, everything looks like a spending problem”.