Aside from US Stocks, Ditching of Citizenship and (Sadly) Middle Age Suicides have been Booming!

In the US, the Federal Reserve has not only powered a boom in stocks, but to many other financial areas such as  ‘record high’ commercial real estate prices and lately to ‘record high’ issuance of corporate bonds.

 

But there are other non financial aspects that seem to be booming too…

One, the ditching of American citizenship. Writes Sovereign Man’s Simon Black.

1,426. That’s the number of Americans who renounced their US citizenship last quarter according to the US government’s report just released this morning.

That’s a record high for a single quarter, easily beating the last record high set earlier this year, which beat the previous record high set in 2013.

This is clearly a trend on the rise, and it certainly raises the question: why?

What is it about the United States that drives so many citizens to leave?

Two main reasons:

The first group consists of people who just can’t take it anymore. Constant warfare, intimidation, and the steady erosion of freedom have pushed them to their breaking points.

They look around and think, “This is NOT the country that I grew up in.” And they renounce their citizenship in protest of a government they no longer want to be associated with.

But that’s a small percentage of former citizens.

For the vast majority of people who renounce their US citizenship, it ultimately comes down to a single issue: taxes.

Second, (sadly) middle age suicides.

From the New York Times

Something startling is happening to middle-aged white Americans. Unlike every other age group, unlike every other racial and ethnic group, unlike their counterparts in other rich countries, death rates in this group have been rising, not falling.

That finding was reported Monday by two Princeton economists, Angus Deaton, who last month won the 2015 Nobel Memorial Prize in for Economic Science, and Anne Case. Analyzing health and mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and from other sources, they concluded that rising annual death rates among this group are being driven not by the big killers like heart disease and diabetes but by an epidemic of suicides and afflictions stemming from substance abuse:alcoholic liver disease and overdoses of heroin and prescription opioids….

Taken together, they concluded that suicides, drugs, and alcohol explained the overall increase in deaths. The effect was largely confined to people with a high school education or less. In that group, death rates rose by 22 percent while they actually fell for those with a college education.

It’s not clear why only middle-aged whites had such a rise in their mortality rates. Dr. Meara and Dr. Skinner, in their commentary, considered a variety of explanations — including a pronounced racial difference in the prescription of opioid drugs and their misuse, and a more pessimistic outlook among whites about their financial futures — but say they cannot fully account for the effect.

Well, suicides have been one of the  side effects of economic depression/financial crisis, as previously discussed.  

Perhaps, the “more pessimistic outlook…about their financial futures” as cause/s to some of the suicides could have been an outcome of the divergence between Wall Street  and main street from policies of inflationism. As per JP Keynes: By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some.

And once another crisis emerge, such deplorable developments could even increase.

Five Signs that Shows of the US Government's Rapidly Eroding Political Capital Base

The US government’s grip on domestic and international politics seem to be slipping fast.

First, the US financial imperialist plan to isolate and drop Russia from the global financial system has backfired.

From Sovereign Man’s Simon Black: (bold mine)

If Vladimir Putin is remotely capable of laughter (the jury is out on that one…) then he’s probably doing so right now.

Russia is once again Arch-Enemy of the United States. It’s like living through a really bad James Bond movie, complete with cartoonish villains.

And for the last several months, the US government has been doing everything it can to torpedo the Russian economy, as well as Vladimir Putin’s standing within his own country.

The economic nuclear option is to kick Russia out of the international banking system. And the US government has been vociferously pushing for this.

Specifically, the US government wants to kick Russia out of SWIFT, short for the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications.

That’s a mouthful. But SWIFT is an important component in the global banking system because it lays the foundation for banks to communicate and transfer funds with one another.

It’s a network protocol of sorts. Whenever a bank in Pakistan does business with a bank in Portugal, the funds will clear through the SWIFT network.

According to the SWIFT itself, they link over 9,000 financial institutions worldwide in over 200 countries, which transact 15 million times per day.

Bottom line, being part of SWIFT is critical to conducting business with the rest of the world. And if Russia gets kicked out of SWIFT, it would be a disaster.

Now, SWIFT is technically organized as a ‘Cooperative Society’ and governed by a board of directors.

There are 25 available board seats, and each seat is allocated for a three-year term to a specific country.

The United States, Belgium, France, Germany, UK, and Switzerland each hold two seats. A handful of other countries hold just one seat. And of course, most countries don’t hold any seats at all.

Here’s what’s utterly hilarious—

On Monday afternoon, not only did SWIFT NOT kick Russia out… but they announced that they were actually giving a BOARD SEAT to Russia.

This is basically the exact opposite of what the US government was pushing for.

Awkward…

But this story is even bigger than that.

Because at the same time that the US government isn’t getting its way with SWIFT, the Chinese are busy putting together their own version of it called CIPS.

CIPS stands for the China International Payment System; it’s intended to be a direct competitor to SWIFT, and a brand new way for global banks to communicate and transact with one another in a way that does NOT depend on the United States.

We’ll talk about CIPS in more details in a future letter. But in brief, it addresses some serious weaknesses, inefficiencies, and technological challenges of SWIFT.

And it should be ready to go later this year.

Make no mistake, this is the beginning of the end of the US dollar’s global hegemony. It’s time to stop hoping that it won’t happen and time to start preparing for it.

Second, against US wishes, UK decides to join China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

From the Financial Times (bold mine) 

The Obama administration accused the UK of a “constant accommodation” of China after Britain decided to join a new China-led financial institution that could rival the World Bank.

The rare rebuke of one of the US’s closest allies came as Britain prepared to announce that it will become a founding member of the $50bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, making it the first country in the G7 group of leading economies to join an institution launched by China last October.

Thursday’s reprimand was a rare breach in the “special relationship” that has been a backbone of western policy for decades. It also underlined US concerns over China’s efforts to establish a new generation of international development banks that could challenge Washington-based global institutions. The US has been lobbying other allies not to join the AIIB.

Relations between Washington and David Cameron’s government have become strained, with senior US officials criticising Britain over falling defence spending, which could soon go below the Nato target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.

Third, the first open spat over Ukraine between the US-NATO and Germany

From Sputnik International (bold mine) 

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has told his US counterpart John Kerry that it is too early to take any pride in the western strategy towards the Ukraine crisis, just days after accusing the US of "dangerous propaganda" over Ukraine.

Steinmeier, speaking on a visit to the US, said to Kerry at a joint press conference in Washington: "It is far too early to pat our shoulders and take pride in what we've achieved."

His comments come days after an official in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's offices had complained of US Air Force General Philip Breedlove's "dangerous propaganda" over Ukraine, and that Steinmeier had talked to the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg about him.

Fourth, the average Americans see the US government as the most important problem.

From Gallup.com

Americans continue to name the government (18%) as the most important U.S. problem, a distinction it has had for the past four months. Americans' mentions of the economy as the top problem (11%) dropped this month, leaving it tied with jobs (10%) for second place

Though issues such as terrorism, healthcare, race relations and immigration have emerged among the top problems in recent polls, government, the economy and unemployment have been the dominant problems listed by Americans for more than a year.

The latest results are from a March 5-8 Gallup poll of 1,025 American adults.

Finally, actions speak louder than words (demonstrated preference), record Americans have been ditching US passports.

From CNBC.com (bold mine)

According to the latest data from the Treasury Department, spotted by Andrew Mitchel at the International Tax Blog, a record 3,415 Americans renounced their citizenship in 2014. That was up from the 2,999 in 2013 and more than triple the number for 2012.

You can read the list of individuals who renounced here.

While some may see taxes as the main reason to flee, that's only part of the story. The big policy change that's causing people to give up their American citizenship is FATCA, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act.

It may sound wonky. But the act requires foreign banks to reveal any Americans with accounts over $50,000. Banks that don't comply could be frozen out of U.S. markets. And Americans overseas—even those who never lived in the U.S. or have a tangential connection here—are now under far more pressure to file detailed tax returns and pay U.S. taxes on their overseas income.

The program was designed to catch more wealthy overseas tax cheats. But one of its unintended consequences is that those Americans are simply giving up on being Americans.

And as part of this exodus, Americans in Asia have also been dumping their citizenship, from Asian Investor.net

A fast-rising number of Americans based in the region are disposing of their US citizenship, citing increasing difficulty of managing their financial affairs due to growing regulatory demands.

I have posted about FACTA here. 

So underneath those record stocks have been a progressing US political entropy. Yet what happens if the US suffers a recession or another financial crisis?

Americans are Ditching Citizenship in Record Numbers, Part 3

The more desperate a government is as to apply more punitive Financial Repression measures via higher taxes, more regulations and mandates, inflation and etc…, the more we should expect the productive segment of the society to flee. I previously noted how Americans have been ditching their citizenship in record numbers here and here

Here is an update from the Wall Street Journal (hat tip Zero hedge)

Last year saw a record for expatriations by U.S. taxpayers, exceeding by two-thirds the previous high set in 2011.

According to the Treasury Department, 630 individuals renounced their U.S. citizenship or ended their long-term U.S. residency by turning in their green cards during the fourth quarter.

The fourth-quarter figure brought to 2,999 the total number of expatriations for 2013. The previous record was 1,781 in 2011, said Andrew Mitchel, a tax lawyer in Centerbrook, Conn., who tracks the data.

The Treasury is required by law to publish a list of the names of expatriates quarterly. The list doesn't indicate when people expatriated or why. It also doesn't distinguish between people giving up passports and those turning in green cards.

Mr. Mitchel attributed the surge to increased awareness of the obligation to file U.S. tax returns, the increasing burden of compliance and the fear of large penalties for failure to file U.S. returns.

"Above all, fear seems to be driving this increase in expatriations," Mr. Mitchell said.

And if the productive segment of society leaves, who is going to do the investing? And if the number host declines, where will political parasites get their sustenance?

Quote of the Day: The divergence between voting and emigration

To rationalize the divergence between voting and emigration, you need something like Brennan and Lomasky's expressive voting theory.  The essence of the theory: When people decide how to vote, their main goal is to express their support for what sounds good.  When people decide where to live, however, they focus on practicalities, not symbolism.

How can the two differ?  The probability of decisiveness.  When you vote, the chance that you tip the outcome is near 0%, so you might as well just scream about your identity.  When you move, in contrast, the chance that you tip the outcome is near 100%, so you'd better consider cost and convenience.

(italics original)

This is from author economic professor and blogger Bryan Caplan at the Econolog

Americans Are Ditching Citizenship in Record Numbers, Part 2

As I noted last May, the rate of wealthy Americans renouncing on their citizenship due to deepening political repression and the prospect of higher taxes, has been accelerating. Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin and celebrity Tina Turner embodies this hastening trend. 

Amazingly, despite the stiff or the punitive exit tax or expatriation tax, the rate exodus has nearly doubled from 670 from the first quarter to last quarter's 1,131.

Sovereign Man’s Simon Black explains:

A massive 1,131 individuals renounced their US citizenship last quarter, according to data that has yet to be officially released (though I was able to procure an advanced copy).

This is a HUGE jump.

Compared to the same quarter last year in which 188 people renounced their US citizenship, this year’s number is over SIX TIMES higher.

Not to mention, it’s 66.5% higher than last quarter’s 679 renunciations.

This brings the total number of renunciations so far this year to 1,810.

While still embryonic, it’s difficult to ignore this trend– more and more people are starting to renounce their US citizenship.

After all, the number of people who renounced citizenship this past quarter is roughly the same as the number of people who renounced for the previous four quarters COMBINED.

"Nationalism" losing its luster… Again from Mr. Black

This movement shouldn’t be that surprising for a species that began as nomadic hunter gatherers, or for a society that was founded by foreigner settlers in search of a better life.

Yet, in a rather anomalous twist, the emotional ties we have for our passports are incredibly strong.

It doesn’t matter where you’re from– the United States, Sweden, New Zealand, or Venezuela… many people all over the world are inculcated from birth with a sense that their country is ‘better’ than all the others.

We grow up with the songs, the flag waving, and the parades until the concept of motherland becomes deeply rooted in our emotional cores.

Not to mention, when so many of our friends and neighbors unquestionably fall in line, it’s a powerful social reinforcement that only strengthens the bond.

We come to view our nationalities rather ironically as a big piece of our core individuality. I am an American. I am a Canadian. I am an Austrian. Instead of– I am a human being.

It has taken decades… centuries even… to reach this point. So the fact that more and more people are making the gut-wrenching decision to ditch their US passports is truly a powerful trend.

Indeed, we are all human beings regardless of the supposed social divisions caused by race or geographic boundaries.

And if we are to talk about “race”, as I earlier pointed out, we are all “Africans” by genetic origins (mtDNA and paternal Y-chromosome). 

To quote National Geographic’s lead scientist Spencer Wells on the National Geographic-IBM’s Genographic Project

You and I, in fact everyone all over the world, we’re literally African under the skin; brothers and sisters separated by a mere two thousand generations. Old-fashioned concepts of race are not only socially divisive, but scientifically wrong.

(italics mine)

The mental concept of nationalism signifies a legacy of the tribal hunter-gatherer age. Then, the dearth of division of labor and trade made man’s survival entirely dependent on the limited scope of land which sustained them, thus, social bonds among tribes and neighbors were forged to resist against intrusions by marauders. Tribalism set stage for the 'nationalist' order.

Yet as trade or voluntary exchange or markets expanded, the importance of territorial boundaries has vastly been diminished. In essence, trade knows of no boundaries. It is the politicians who create such borders and barriers to trade.

And in the understanding of the potential loss of usufruct and privileges from wangling resources from the citizenry, the political class resists such dynamic by selling "nationalism" as a way to maintain the status quo by curbing people’s ability to freely transact with each other.

Modern day nationalism represents no more than the populist justifications that bequeaths to the political class the power to tax and the power to extend political control over their respective constituents in the name of “feel good” pseudo- social belongingness.

And why are Americans are exiting? Back to Mr. Black:

So what’s driving it? Taxes… and the search for liberty.

For many, their tax bills constitute a financial breaking point. Particularly for people who spend most of their time outside of the United States and are constantly hamstrung by worldwide taxation and information disclosures, the burden for many of them has just become too much to bear.

The US government figured this out some years ago and began charging an exit tax to certain high income / high net worth expatriates seeking to renounce.

This applies to anyone whose average US tax liability over the last five years was about $150,000 (the equivalent of roughly $500,000 in taxable income in 2012 dollars), and/or has a net worth of at least $2 million on the date of expatriation. Curiously this net worth figure does not adjust with inflation.

The ironic thing is that in the “Act of July 27, 1868″, the United States Congress declared that “the right of expatriation is a natural and inherent right of all people, indispensable to the enjoyment of the rights of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

Yet I would expect that as the number of expatriates continue to grow, this exit tax will become more and more onerous as the government tries to trap people, and their wealth, in the country.

I would like to add that aside from taxation and political repression, financial intrusion has been compounding to the incentives of Americans to exit.

The US is the only country who taxes her citizens on a worldwide basis. This means offshore Americans are taxed twice—one in the country where they operate, and second by the US government.

Yet the US government will expand the dragnet of taxation and of the intrusion of financial privacy via the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FACTA).

FACTA will force Americans to disclose to the US government all foreign held financial accounts and will force domestic banks operating under the FACTA framework to share information with the US Internal Revenue Services (IRS)

So FACTA essentially will undermine the supposed 'sovereignty' of other governments as US policies now dictate (by virtue of what seems as a foreign policy erected on the premise of 'might is right') on domestic politics.

The jurisdictions covered by FACTA has now expanded to include about 83 countries, which includes, Germany, Israel, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines.

So far only the Swiss government appear to be resisting the US overlord's FACTA framework and where Swiss banks have reportedly been shunning accounts of American citizens.

So deepening political interventions, the prospects of bigger taxes and loss of financial privacy, as well as, economic uncertainty via monetary policies, appear to motivate wealthy Americans to opt out. 

And as the taxpayer base of the US erode, the fragile fiscal balance of the US will increasingly operate under duress from the growing mismatch between revenues and expenditures. A looming debt based welfare crisis will further this trend.

Despite heavy exit taxes, the growing 'opt out' option is increasingly a disturbing sign, not only for the US political economy which should have a leash effect on the world, but importantly for the US dollar standard.

Many Wealthy Chinese Exit China

More accounts of wealthy Chinese reportedly seeking safehaven by emigration.

From CNBC.com 

A new report in China shows that 150,000 Chinese – most of them wealthy – emigrated to other countries in 2011. While that number may not seem high for a country of more than a billion people, the flight of China's richest – and the offshoring of their fortunes – could cost the country jobs and economic growth, according to the study from the Center for China and Globalization and the Beijing Institute of Technology.

"The private economy contributes more than 60 percent of China's GDP and it absorbs a majority of employees. So if private business owners emigrate with their capital, it would mean less investment in the domestic market, so fewer jobs would be created," Wang Huiyao, director of the Center for China and Globalization, told the state-run China Daily today.

The fleeing millionaires mainly made their money in real estate, foreign currency and deposits and stocks, among other fields, according to the report. They are mainly leaving Beijing, Shanghai and coastal provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangsu.

I guess there could be various personal reasons for these. Some may even be cronies or relatives of Chinese officials who may be trying to protect their wealth

But many of the exiting wealthy class appear to be jumping from the proverbial frying pan to fire.

More from the same article.

China's wealth flight, however, has been America's gain. The United States was the top destination for wealthy Chinese in 2011, according to the report. Canada and Australia came second and third.

The report said that the United States had granted 87,000 permanent resident permits to Chinese nationals in 2011. Of those, 3,340 were approved through special investment visas, which allows wealthy foreigners to apply for American citizenship if they agree to invest more than $500,000 on job-creation projects. The program has become largely Chinese, with more than more than two thirds of all of the visas granted going wealthy citizens of mainland.

Chinese migrants to the US will likely be faced with higher taxes, and the prospects of instability from America’s degenerating fiscal and political conditions

Yet recent developments suggest that there has been a ballooning tension between China’s centralized ‘communist’ government and the fast expanding decentralized forces from the entrepreneurship class. The new leaders seem to represent the status quo fundamentally employing the same Keynesian policies.

Eventually either the Chinese government will adapt political reforms to conform to the changes of the economy or that Chinese government will have to reverse the recent economic reforms. Such transition increases the risks of political instability where perhaps fleeing wealthy Chinese could be a symptom

Southern Europeans Flee to Germany

The crisis affected European nations or the PIGS (Portugal Italy Greece and Spain) have not just been enduring capital flight from fears of prospective devaluation by a forced exit, but likewise have seen a mass exodus from residents.

As I earlier pointed out, many European emigrants seem to have opted for emerging markets, meanwhile fresh reports tells us that many others have been flocking into Germany at a steepening rate.

From the Wall Street Journal

The influx of Southern Europeans into Germany has gathered pace in recent months, as a growing number of Greeks, Spaniards and Portuguese ventured north to escape deepening recession and growing social tensions.

The biggest increase came from Greece. The number of Greeks moving to Germany jumped 78% in the first half of 2012 from a year earlier, Germany's statistics office said.

In all, more than 16,000 people moved to Germany from Greece between January and June, an acceleration of a trend that began in 2010 after the Greek crisis began. The number of immigrants to Germany from Spain and Portugal was up by 53% for each country.

The trend bodes ill for countries on Europe's southern periphery at a time of worsening economic malaise. Many of those leaving are young professionals with valuable skills. Their departures could have long-term consequences for countries such as Greece and Portugal as they struggle to recover.

"There are absolutely no jobs here—that's the main reason why people move away," said Charalampos Koutalakis, a politics professor at the University of Athens.

Jobs are symptoms of a deeper systemic malaise.

On the one hand, the productive class have been finding diminished economic opportunities from which to go about or to work on, given the political trends of deepening financial and economic repression that has led to the asphyxiation of the business and entrepreneur class

Such includes the risks of the erosion individual savings which has prompted for capital flight—again from the perceived risk of more inflationist policies, the risks of an implosion of the banking system and a wider confiscatory tax dragnet for these insolvent and desperate nations.

On the other hand, the parasitical class have been fighting to retain their entitlements which have been bringing about greater political risks.

Picture from Spiegel Online

Strikes and demonstrations in protest of so-called “austerity” have only been intensifying social frictions that have sparked political violence. This has only worsened the investment climate that has brought Europe down to its knees through a double dip recession.

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money [to spend]" remarked former UK’s PM Margaret Thatcher. This has been the zeitgeist of the social feud in Europe as welfare and bureaucrats bitterly contest with the ruling political class and the privileged and protected (crony) bankers on how to divvy up the residual spoils from an unsustainable system of mandated plunder.

And for the citizens who refuses to partake of political of the struggles, and who may have chosen to stay or who may have been trapped by the inability to migrate, the desire to normalize life have led to a booming informal economy which now averages 17.3% of the euro GDP or EUR 1.5 trillion.

As I have been pointing out, the informal economy seems like guerrilla capitalism operating under business or investment hostile or adverse political landscape

Bottom line: People respond to developing political trends or political risks. A political trend towards economic repression leads to violence, to capital flight, to the informal economy and to emigration.

Exodus in Spain: More Foreign and Local Residents Emigrate

Early this year, I posted about the coming European diaspora. Current events seem to confirm on such trends as Spain continues to suffer from an exodus of foreign and local residents.

From ABC.es 

In the first nine months of the year have left Spain 420 150 people, of which 365,238 were foreigners and 54,912 Spanish, 37,539 more than in the same period in 2011, primarily for the Spanish emigration. 

Nationals who have left Spain increased by 21.6 per cent from the 45,161 who were between January and September 2011 to 54,912 this year, according to current population estimates published on Monday that the INE. The net migration-the difference between people coming and going, which was less than 137,628 people, of which 25 539 112 089 Spanish and foreign-and for the first time has been negative for the Spanish in all the Autonomous Communities.

As previously pointed out such dynamics are cumulative symptoms of the manifold policy failures in providing economic opportunities from the rampant interventionism by European governments such as Spain.

Migration Trends: The Coming European Diaspora?

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not just about Wall Street, as long term trends do change in many aspects of social activities.

Take migration trends, what used to be popular—where citizens of emerging markets migrate to western nations—could now be in a process of reversal: Western people are leaving for Emerging Markets. 

After all, what usually drives social mobility is the search for greener pasture or about following the money.

We get this clue from this Wall Street Journal article (hat tip Bob Wenzel)

Economic distress is driving tens of thousands of skilled professionals from Europe, and many are being lured to thriving former European colonies in Latin America and Africa, reversing well-worn migration patterns. Asia and Australia, as well as the U.S. and Canada, are absorbing others leaving the troubled euro zone.

At the same time, an influx of Third World immigrants whose labor helped fuel Europe's growth over the past decade is subsiding. Hundreds of thousands of them, including some white-collar professionals, have been returning home.

The exodus is raising concern about a potential long-term cost of the economic crisis—a talent drain that could hinder the euro zone's weakest economies as they struggle to climb out of recession.

Talk about talent drain or brain drain is utter nonsense.

As the WSJ reports, the principal reason for the reversal of migration trends has been because of the lack or absence of economic opportunities. And this has been because of excessive welfare state, interventionism, bailouts of pet industries of politicians and boom bust policies which has been consuming capital and diverting resources to non-productive activities.

In short, brain or talent drain are symptomatic of failed government policies. 

More account of people in Europe voting with their feet, again from the same article.

During a prosperous decade that ended in 2008, Spain welcomed one of the world's biggest waves of immigrants. Foreign workers poured in at a rate of 500,000 per year to boost its construction and service industries, making the country Europe's prime destination for new arrivals.

Last year, with unemployment topping 20%, Spain became a net exporter of people for the first time since 1990, according to Spain's National Statistics Institute. Some 55,626 more people left the country in the first nine months of last year than arrived, the institute said.

Spaniards are scattering to better-off European countries and beyond, particularly to Latin America. Of the estimated 37,000 Spanish citizens who left the country in 2010, nearly 60% emigrated to countries outside the European Union.

At least 100,000 of Portugal's 11 million citizens moved abroad in 2011, after a decade of anemic growth and rising debt in Western Europe's poorest nation. In Africa, Angola's burgeoning economy has absorbed 70,000 Portuguese since 2003, according to the government-backed Emigration Observatory in Lisbon.

The number of Portuguese in Brazil on work-related visas shot up by 52,000 in the 18 months through June 2011.

Brazil is profiting from Europe's decline. It is wooing foreign engineers and other construction-related specialists to help carry out housing, energy and infrastructure projects for which the government has budgeted $500 billion through 2014, more than double Portugal's annual gross domestic product.

As one can observe what seems as a talent drain for Europe is now a talent gain for emerging markets.

People respond to changes in the environment and the political economy without directions from the government. Instead they are reacting to failed policies.

And allowing for social mobility will only force governments to compete for the most productive members of any society, as well as, force governments to become more competitive by embracing economic freedom. But of course this would be bad news for politicians, their cronies and their media cohorts..

Finally, the north south migration trends could just be the beginning

More from the same article…

With Europe's crisis and Brazil's boom, migration patterns are shifting again.

Brazilians are coming home in epic numbers. The government estimates that nearly half the country's émigrés have returned—from more than 3 million Brazilians living abroad in 2007 to fewer than 2 million today.

Again more evidence of the deepening wealth convergence dynamic borne out of globalization and the ballooning forces of decentralization relative to the baneful effects from the decadent welfare state.

Interesting times indeed.

Wealthy Chinese Consider Emigration

Many say that the 21^st Century belongs to China.

While I certainly hope that China will, I am not entirely convinced, especially not if the Chinese themselves seem distrustful of their nation’s future.

This bleak news from the Wall Street Journal, (bold highlights mine)

More than half of China's millionaires are either considering emigrating or have already taken steps to do so, according to a survey that builds on similar findings earlier this year, highlighting worries among the business elite about their quality of life and financial prospects, despite the country's fast-paced growth.

The U.S. is the most popular emigration destination, according to the survey of 980 Chinese people with assets of more than 10 million yuan ($1.6 million) published on Saturday by Bank of China and wealth researcher Hurun Report.

While growth has slowed, China's economic performance is still the envy of the Western world: It registered annual gross domestic product growth of 9.1% in the third quarter, and the International Monetary Fund has forecast growth of 9.5% for all of 2011.

Concerns are mounting, however, that China's growth could be derailed by a raft of problems, including high inflation, a bubbly real-estate sector and a sharp slowdown in external demand.

Many Chinese who have profited most from the country's growth also express increasing concerns in private about social issues such as China's one-child policy, food safety, pollution, corruption, poor schooling, and a weak legal system.

Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder and publisher of Hurun Report, said the most common reason cited by respondents who were emigrating was their children's education, followed by a desire for better medical treatment, and the fear of pollution in China.

"There's also an element of insurance being taken out here," he said, citing concerns about the economic and political environment.

He cautioned, though, that it was unclear if the survey results signaled capital flight as many high-net-worth individuals who were emigrating also said they were keeping much of their money invested in China.

China maintains capital controls that make it hard for rich Chinese to move their money out of the country, but there are substantial loopholes in the system.

Some economists say they have detected signs of large capital outflows in recent months, likely driven by a decline in global risk appetite and expectations of slower yuan appreciation.

A research report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's strategy team in Hong Kong last month cited "hot-money outflows" as one of four systemic risks that could lead to a hard landing for China's economy. It said that a sign of such outflows were record gambling revenue in the gambling enclave of Macau, a former Portuguese colony near Hong Kong, where many mainland Chinese go to gamble.

In another indication of the jittery mood among China's rich, several Western embassies have also noted a marked increase this year in the number of applications for investment visas, a category that allows people to immigrate if they invest a certain amount of money, according to diplomats.

There is evidence, too, of an uptick in the number of Chinese people buying high-end properties in major Western cities, especially London, Sydney and New York, according to property analysts.

The recent economic success experienced by China has mainly been due to her embrace of globalization.

However, deepening tensions brought upon by rapidly expanding bottom-up economic forces has apparently come into conflict with the rigid political priorities of the China’s government aimed at the preservation of the incumbent structure.

And because of the attendant fear of social disorder arising from an economic bust, which may upset the current political balance, China’s political authorities have careened towards adapting short sighted Keynesian policies that has resulted to an inflating bubble economy that risks a massive bust, possibly in the near future.

Perhaps many of these Chinese millionaires may be sensing trouble ahead (see bold highlights above), not only from a bubble bust, but also from the growing fragile state of China’s unsustainable capitalist-communist political economy.

Yet, a substantial exodus from many of China’s productive sectors will likely put further strain on such tenuous relationship.

This is not to say that a China Century may not be ahead, instead this is to say that China must ultimately depend on market forces to determine the economic direction than rely on temporary nostrums from political diktat that only hastens erosion of the current political economic framework.

Eventually China’s political leadership will have to decide either to cope up with the swift and material changes in her economy or to revert to the old China model of a closed society. The success or failure of the goal of a China Century, thus, depends on the political choices taken.