How Foreign Trade Restrictions Obstructs Economic Growth

In discussing the official complaint filed by the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against China’s rare earth export restrictions, Cato’s Dan Ikenson explains the adverse implications of trade restrictions. Mr. Ikenson writes, (bold emphasis mine)

USTR’s argument against Chinese export restrictions in the raw materials and Rare Earths cases are just as applicable to U.S. import restrictions. Removing restrictions—whether the export variety imposed by foreign governments or the import variety imposed by our own—reduces input prices, lowers domestic production costs, enables more competitive final-goods pricing and, thus, greater profits for U.S.-based producers.

Yet the U.S. government imposes its own restrictions on imports of some of the very same raw materials. It maintains antidumping duties on magnesium, silicon metal, and coke (all raw materials subject to Chinese export restrictions). In fact, over 80 percent of the nearly 350 U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty measures in place restrict imports of raw materials and industrial inputs—ingredients required by U.S. producers in their own production processes. But those companies—those producers and workers for whom Ambassador Kirk professes to be going to bat in the WTO case on rare earths (and the previous raw materials case)—don’t have a seat at the table when it comes to deciding whether to impose AD or CVD duties. (Full story here.)

Ambassador Kirk’s logic and the facts about who exactly is victimized by U.S. trade policies provide a compelling case for trade law reform, such as requiring the administering authorities to consider the economic impact of AD/CVD measures on producers in downstream industries—companies like magnesium-cast automobile parts producers, manufacturers of silicones used in solar panels, and even steel producers, who require coke for their blast furnaces.

Feel good protectionist policies does the opposite of what they intend to accomplish

Yet such policies have been imposed by vested interest groups, who uses the law (in cahoots with vote seeking politicians) to protect their economic standings at the expense of consumers and of the society. This is known as Rent Seeking.

Trade restrictions has significant direct and indirect (unseen spillover) impact to the economy.

Poor and Middle Income Countries are ‘Happier’?

Based on self-reported happiness, poor to middle income countries have reportedly been happier than their rich counterparts

So says the Economist,

DESPITE the economic gloom, the world is happier than it was before the financial crisis set in (according to a recent poll from Ipsos which surveyed 19,000 adults in 24 countries). 77% of respondents describe themselves as "happy", three percentage points higher than in 2007. Those countries who report themselves as being the happiest tend to be in poor and middle-income countries, while the gloomiest are in rich countries (the figures for Italy and Spain were 13% and 11%).

Reasons? Again from the Economist,

Two conclusions emerge. Large, fast-growing emerging markets do not share rich industrialised countries’ pessimism. The already large “very happy” cohort rose 16 points in Turkey, ten points in Mexico and five points in India. Even rich-country pessimism is uneven. The share of “very happy” people rose six points in—of all places—Japan, defying tsunami and nuclear accidents. But growth amid global misery does not explain everything: the biggest falls in happiness also occurred in large emerging markets, in Indonesia, Brazil and—a perennial misery guts—Russia.

The second conclusion challenges the received notions of mankind’s moods. A tenet of political science is that happiness levels rise with wealth and then plateau, usually when a country’s national income per head reaches around $25,000 a year. “The richer a country gets,” argued Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett in “The Spirit Level”, an influential book of 2009, “the less getting still richer adds to the population’s happiness.” Many on the left have concluded that pursuing further economic growth is pointless. Even right-wing politicians such as Britain’s prime minister, David Cameron, and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, have set up projects to study “gross national happiness”.

I am tempted to say that polls like this seem to justify the political economy of fascism—since people are happier by being poor, then maintain their happiness by continued immersion to poverty. This by handing over economic opportunities to politicians and their cronies through “special interest group captured” political institutions.

Happiness is subjective or signifies an individual's state of mind or represent personal value scales expressed through expectations.

If the above account has some grain of truth in it, then I’d say that reference point matters: Poorer nations may have relatively lower expectations than those of rich economies. And trajectories of economic growth have been changing the underlying dynamics of expectations

With globalization (measured by trade volume and Industrial Production) at record highs (chart from Professor Mark Perry) economic opportunities have been brightening up for emerging markets compared to debt plagued developed economies.

In other words, optimism, for people who have been jaded or inured to poverty, have likely been derivative from increasing trade opportunities (through liberalization or more economic freedom) that has rewarded their drudgery.

Economic growth favors emerging markets; chart from another 2009 Economist article

Whereas people used or conditioned to living lavish lifestyles funded by intractable debt will have to face the realities of rebalancing their finances. So again, changes in expectations from base points seem to be shaped by the economic developments

There is another aspect: the welfare state. People in rich countries, many of whom are dependent on the welfare state may have seen a reduction in the essence of personal values; particularly family, responsibility, and value of work.

As economist Vedran Vuk writes at the Mises.org,

The agenda of the state is to break up the family. The more you depend on the state, the more you justify its existence, and the larger it grows. The idea that people can provide things for themselves either individually or through the family frightens the state. It delegitimizes its role. The role of the family is dangerous to its survival.

In contrast, the rewards in economic growth have not only been benefiting one’s material welfare, but importantly are magnified through personal values (again family, responsibility and work ethics) in lesser welfare dependent economies.

Has China’s Role as the ‘World’s Factory’ Coming to an End?

Has Europe taken over China’s role as the “new sweat shop”?

Writes Spiegel Online, (bold original)

It used to be that European carmakers opened plants to assemble their cars in China. Now the Chinese have turned the tables with the opening of their first factory in Bulgaria, an EU country with low labor costs and taxes. Increasingly, Chinese carmakers are setting their sights on the European and American automobile markets.

Great Wall this week became the first Chinese automobile manufacturer to open an automobile assembly plant inside the European Union in the latest move suggesting the country's carmakers are seeking to establish a beachhead into the European market.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov on Tuesday attended the opening of Great Wall's new factory in the northern Bulgarian village of Bahovitsa. The plant is to be operated jointly by Great Wall and the Bulgarian firm Litex Motors.

For years, European carmakers like Volkswagen have established large joint ventures in order to gain footholds in the Chinese market, but now the tables appear to be turning.

"Stepping on the European market is our strategy," Great Wall CEO Wang Fengying said at the opening festivities.

Within three to five years, the company plans to produce an entire line of models in Bahovitsa to be sold in Europe, she said. Test assembly of the Voleex C10 and the Steed 5 pick-up truck, which sell for 16,000 to 25,000 leva (€8,200 to €12,800), began already in November.

In the midterm, Great Wall plans to assemble around 50,000 automobiles per year at the 500,000 square meter plant. The number of workers is expected to grow from the current total of 120 to 2,000. Initially, the company plans to sell its vehicles primarily in Bulgaria and neighboring Eastern European countries like Serbia and Macedonia, but it later plans to expand into other EU countries.

Attractive Labor Market

Bulgaria, the EU's poorest country, is attractive as a labor market because it is an oasis of cheap wages and low taxes. Workers are considered well educated and the country is ideal as the site for a company like Great Wall to launch. Given that wages for factory workers have risen considerably in China in recent years, assembly sites abroad have become increasingly attractive for some manufacturers.

While it may be true that China’s wages have risen over the past years, it is important to put into perspective that there has been an enormous chasm between European wages (yes despite Bulgaria's position as having one of the lowest wage in Europe) and China’s wages.

From Urbanomics

Europe hourly compensation in manufacturing is more than 30 times China!

From Ebandit

Chinese workers would take more than 8 years and 10 months to catch up with the annual European minimum wage earnings.

Even if the wage convergence trend does deepen overtime, where China’s wages continues to increase as Europe’s wages decline, it would take substantial changes, and possibly many many many years, if not decades, for this wage based differential to close.

And while the mainstream loves to tunnel on “wages” or “compensation” as the key reason for any shifts in investments [mainly to justify government’s actions for currency interventions or the imposition of mercantilist-protectionist policies], the reality is that wages are just part of the many factors driving the entrepreneur’s economic and financial calculations or business decision processes, such as access to markets, finance, infrastructure et al…, regulatory costs, tax regime, legal environment, political institutions and etc…

Perhaps too, some Chinese investors may just be courageous and far-sighted enough to use the recent crisis as an opportunity to position or that the same investors appreciates Europe's competitive and comparative advantages and acted to capitalize on these

Besides, one investment shift does not a trend make.

The last point is that this serves an example of how conditions are not fixed (past performance does not guarantee future outcomes) and that the world is highly complex.

EUROASIAN Union: Regionalizing Cronyism or Despotism?

Russia’s Vladimir Putin has a grand design, he intends to integrate ex-Soviet Union states.

From the Businessinsider.com,

It's likely you've never heard of half of the prospective members of Vladimir Putin's plans for a "Eurasian Union".

However, if the plan goes ahead, you'll need to get familiar with them quick.

A Eurasian Union (EuU) including most of the former U.S.S.R. would become a major counterweight to the EU (a Eurasian Union could control up to 33 percent of the world’s proven natural gas reserves, according to Forbes).

Putin, who floated the idea in October of last year, at the time went to lengths to deny that the bloc would recreate the Soviet Union. However, Russia has already gotten many other former Soviet Union states to sign up for a free trade agreement, including Armenia, Moldova, Ukraine (which was initially set on joining the EU), Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan could follow suit.

Purportedly the union is about a establishing a free trade bloc.

More from Reuters,

Putin said the new union would build on an existing Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan which from next year will remove all barriers to trade, capital and labor movement between the three countries.

"We are not going to stop there and are setting an ambitious goal -- to achieve an even higher integration level in the Eurasian Union," Putin wrote in an article which will be published in Izvestia newspaper on October 4…

Putin wrote that he saw the way out of the global crisis through a regional integration, mentioning the European Union, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as examples.

"These 'bricks' can assemble into a more stable global economy," Putin wrote.

Politicians espousing free trade or liberalization of the markets have always been welcome news. However one should be leery of any noble sounding intentions, because what politicians say almost always works to the contrary from what they do.

The great Professor Ludwig von Mises says that free trade is about practicing what has been preached

Everybody was in favor of free trade for all other nations and of hyper‑protectionism for his own. It did not seem to occur to anyone that free trade begins at home. For nearly everyone favored government control of busi­ness within his own country.

True to the word of Professor von Mises, we find that the supposed ex-Soviet free trade bloc are composed of mostly economically UNFREE nations.

According to the Heritage economic freedom index, Russia ranks 144^th, Ukraine 163^rd, Moldova 124^th, Armenia 39^th, Kyrgyz Republic 88^th, Tajikistan 129^th and potential participants Uzbekistan 164^th Azerbaijan 91^st and Turkmenistan 168^th.

Except for Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic whom are classified as moderately free, all the rest led by Putin’s Russia has been mostly unfree.

And the deficiency in freedom has not been limited to economic sphere but has likewise been reflected in their respective political institutions. The following categorization according to Freedomhouse.org

Partly Free: Ukraine, Moldova Kyrgyz Republic

Not free: Russia, Tajikistan. Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan

So free trade looks likely a façade to what seems as covert design to control energy reserves which will likely be corralled by the political class and their regional private sector allies.

And like the EU, whom has gone in the direction of a political union, Putin’s union seems like a step towards centralization of the region’s political framework.

Genuine free trade doesn’t need trading blocs or treaties. All that is required of a nation need is to voluntarily open the doors for trade, regardless of the what neighbors or others do.

Again this golden nugget from Professor Ludwig von Mises.

It is hopeless to expect a change by an international agreement. If a country thinks that more free trade is to its own advantage, then it may always open its frontiers. But if it views free trade as a disadvantage to its own interests it will not be more willing to grant it in an international treaty.

Well I hope I am wrong on this, and that such trading bloc will pry open these mostly unfree economies and spur not only regional trade openness but a global one too.

AP Opens in North Korea: Signs of Coming Economic Liberalization?

The Associated Press (AP) recently opened in North Korea

Writes The Guardian

The Associated Press has opened its newest bureau here, becoming the first international news organization with a full-time presence to cover news from North Korea in words, pictures and video.

In a ceremony Monday that came less than a month after the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong Il and capped nearly a year of discussions, AP President and CEO Tom Curley and a delegation of top AP editors inaugurated the office, situated inside the headquarters of the state-run Korean Central News Agency in downtown Pyongyang.

The bureau expands the AP's presence in North Korea, building on the breakthrough in 2006 when AP opened a video bureau in Pyongyang for the first time by an international news organization. Exclusive video from AP video staffers in Pyongyang was used by media outlets around the world following Kim's death.

Now, AP writers and photojournalists will also be allowed to work in North Korea on a regular basis.

For North Korea, which for decades has remained largely off-limits to international journalists, the opening marked an important gesture, particularly because North Korea and the United States have never had formal diplomatic relations. The AP, an independent, 165-year-old news cooperative founded in New York and owned by its U.S. newspaper membership, has operations in more than 100 countries and employs nearly 2,500 journalists across the world in 300 locations.

The bureau puts AP in a position to document the people, places and politics of North Korea across all media platforms at a critical moment in its history, with Kim's death and the ascension of his young son as the country's new leader, Curley said in remarks prepared for the opening

This would appear like a watershed breakthrough. There appears to be a seminal trend among the remnants of communism as Burma and Cuba whom has already taken the inaugural route towards economic liberalization.

And I think North Korea could be headed this way too under the new regime. One event does not make a trend though which is why we have to keep vigil.

I am hopeful that structural changes could be underway. Having North Korea open up economically will not only reduce risks of a regional war, but importantly augment Asia’s role as an economic powerhouse.

Migration Trends: The Coming European Diaspora?

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This is not just about Wall Street, as long term trends do change in many aspects of social activities.

Take migration trends, what used to be popular—where citizens of emerging markets migrate to western nations—could now be in a process of reversal: Western people are leaving for Emerging Markets. 

After all, what usually drives social mobility is the search for greener pasture or about following the money.

We get this clue from this Wall Street Journal article (hat tip Bob Wenzel)

Economic distress is driving tens of thousands of skilled professionals from Europe, and many are being lured to thriving former European colonies in Latin America and Africa, reversing well-worn migration patterns. Asia and Australia, as well as the U.S. and Canada, are absorbing others leaving the troubled euro zone.

At the same time, an influx of Third World immigrants whose labor helped fuel Europe's growth over the past decade is subsiding. Hundreds of thousands of them, including some white-collar professionals, have been returning home.

The exodus is raising concern about a potential long-term cost of the economic crisis—a talent drain that could hinder the euro zone's weakest economies as they struggle to climb out of recession.

Talk about talent drain or brain drain is utter nonsense.

As the WSJ reports, the principal reason for the reversal of migration trends has been because of the lack or absence of economic opportunities. And this has been because of excessive welfare state, interventionism, bailouts of pet industries of politicians and boom bust policies which has been consuming capital and diverting resources to non-productive activities.

In short, brain or talent drain are symptomatic of failed government policies. 

More account of people in Europe voting with their feet, again from the same article.

During a prosperous decade that ended in 2008, Spain welcomed one of the world's biggest waves of immigrants. Foreign workers poured in at a rate of 500,000 per year to boost its construction and service industries, making the country Europe's prime destination for new arrivals.

Last year, with unemployment topping 20%, Spain became a net exporter of people for the first time since 1990, according to Spain's National Statistics Institute. Some 55,626 more people left the country in the first nine months of last year than arrived, the institute said.

Spaniards are scattering to better-off European countries and beyond, particularly to Latin America. Of the estimated 37,000 Spanish citizens who left the country in 2010, nearly 60% emigrated to countries outside the European Union.

At least 100,000 of Portugal's 11 million citizens moved abroad in 2011, after a decade of anemic growth and rising debt in Western Europe's poorest nation. In Africa, Angola's burgeoning economy has absorbed 70,000 Portuguese since 2003, according to the government-backed Emigration Observatory in Lisbon.

The number of Portuguese in Brazil on work-related visas shot up by 52,000 in the 18 months through June 2011.

Brazil is profiting from Europe's decline. It is wooing foreign engineers and other construction-related specialists to help carry out housing, energy and infrastructure projects for which the government has budgeted $500 billion through 2014, more than double Portugal's annual gross domestic product.

As one can observe what seems as a talent drain for Europe is now a talent gain for emerging markets.

People respond to changes in the environment and the political economy without directions from the government. Instead they are reacting to failed policies.

And allowing for social mobility will only force governments to compete for the most productive members of any society, as well as, force governments to become more competitive by embracing economic freedom. But of course this would be bad news for politicians, their cronies and their media cohorts..

Finally, the north south migration trends could just be the beginning

More from the same article…

With Europe's crisis and Brazil's boom, migration patterns are shifting again.

Brazilians are coming home in epic numbers. The government estimates that nearly half the country's émigrés have returned—from more than 3 million Brazilians living abroad in 2007 to fewer than 2 million today.

Again more evidence of the deepening wealth convergence dynamic borne out of globalization and the ballooning forces of decentralization relative to the baneful effects from the decadent welfare state.

Interesting times indeed.

World Economic Freedom Down, Asia and Africa Up

Writes Mike Brownfield at the Heritage ‘Morning Bell’ Blog

Economic freedom — the ability of individuals to control the fruits of their labor and pursue their dreams — is central to prosperity around the world. Heritage and The Wall Street Journal measure economic freedom by studying its pillars: the rule of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency, and open markets. Things like property rights, freedom from corruption, government spending, free trade, labor policies, and one’s ability to invest in and create businesses all factor in to a country’s economic freedom.

Sadly, economic freedom declined worldwide in 2011 as many countries attempted — without success — to spend their way out of recession. The editors of the Index explain what has led to this troubling decline:

“Rapid expansion of government, more than any market factor, appears to be responsible for flagging economic dynamism. Government spending has not only failed to arrest the economic crisis, but also–in many countries–seems to be prolonging it. The big-government approach has led to bloated public debt, turning an economic slowdown into a fiscal crisis with economic stagnation fueling long-term unemployment.”

Though some might think that the United States — the land of the free, the home of the brave — is of course a leader in economic freedom, they would be wrong. The United States fell to 10th place in the world for economic freedom, and its score continues to drop. The U.S. ranked 6th in 2009, 8th in 2010 and 9th in 2011.

The Keynesian (kick the can) approach in resolving crises via government (deficit) spending has been experiencing rapidly diminishing returns. So the developed crisis afflicted world now utilizes more of central bank actions to supplement or buttress fiscal policies.

Yet with far more debt and accreted imbalances from inflationism, such implies temporary fixes and that we should expect another crisis down the road (perhaps at a far larger bigger scale)

Not all is bad news though. The little crisis scathed regions of Asia and Africa appears headed in the opposite direction, again from Heritage…

The United States isn’t alone in the trend away from increased economic freedom. Canada and Mexico lost ground in the Index, and 31 of the 43 countries in Europe saw reduced freedom, as well. Given Europe’s huge welfare programs and out-of-control social spending, that’s unfortunately not surprising. As the world suffers the economic repercussions of Europe’s debt crisis, the price of pursuing policies that constrict economic freedom should be clear.

For all the bad news that the Index uncovered, there is some good news for economic freedom around the world. Four Asia-Pacific economies–Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand–lead the Index with top scores this year, Taiwan has seen increased gains in economic freedom, and eleven of the 46 economies in sub-Saharan Africa gained at least a full point on the Index’s economic freedom scale. And Mauritius eighth place score is the highest ever achieved by an African country.

Much of the world, though, isn’t so lucky. While some countries have seen their economic freedoms increase, others such as India and China are constrained by government control and bureaucracy.

This only means that the wealth convergence dynamic will continue to intensify and that the wealth gap between the West and Asia, Africa and other emerging markets, who continue to embrace economic freedom, will persist to narrow.

Despite my cynicism, I still put some hope into meaningful reforms that can be made in the Philippines. This signifies a mixed opinion of mine, which can be called as the endowment effect or the home bias. The Philippines has shown some progress which means kudos the current administration (if true).

Yet our deepening linkage with the world will represent as the ultimate driver that would pressure the domestic political economic policies to align with the underlying trend, globalization, which drives the rest of the world.

As proof, if Cuba has been opening up her economy, which is not just statistics, (chart from Heritage Foundation), then so should the Philippines.

What To Expect in 2012

Everything we know “based on evidence” is actually based on evidence together with appropriate theory. Steven Landsburg

Prediction 2011: Largely on the Spot But Too Much Optimism

First, a recap on the analysis and the predictions I made during the end of December of 2010 in an article “What to Expect in 2011”[1]

I identified four predominant conditions that would function as drivers of global financial markets (including the Philippine Phisix) as follows:

1. Monetary authorities of developed economies will fight to sustain low interest rates.

2. More Inflationism: Bailouts and QEs To Continue

3. Effects of Divergent Monetary Policies

4. The Globalization Factor

How they fared.

1. Low Interest Rates Regime

I noted that the US Federal Reserve has the “penchant to artificially keep down interest rates until forced by hand by the markets”; this has apparently been validated last year even as most of the market’s focus has shifted to the Eurozone.

In fact, suppressing interest rates has not just been undertaken by the US Federal Reserve, whom has promised that current zero bound rates (ZIRP) would be extended to 2013[2] aside from manipulating the yield curve via ‘Operation Twist’, but by major developed and emerging central banks as shown above[3].

Apparently, the worsening debt crisis in Eurozone compounded by Japan’s triple whammy natural disaster and China’s slowing economy (or popping bubble?) has intuitively or mechanically prompted policymakers to respond concertedly, nearly in the same fashion as 2008. This has resulted to a decline of global interest rates levels to that of 2009[4].

2. Bailouts and QEs Did Escalate

Except the US Federal Reserve, major global central banks have already been actively adapting credit easing or money printing policies.

The balance sheets of top 3 central banks has now accounted for almost 25% of world’s GDP[5]. Yet this doesn’t include the Swiss National Bank[6] (SNB) and the Bank of England[7] (BoE) whom has likewise scaled up on their respective asset purchasing programs.

The world is experiencing an unprecedented order of monetary inflation under today’s fiat standard based modern central banking.

3. Divergent Impacts of Monetary Policies on Financial Markets

I previously stated that

Divergent monetary policies will impact emerging markets and developed markets distinctly, with the former benefiting from the transmission effects from the latter’s policies.

While global equity markets have been down mostly on partial and sporadic signs of liquidity contraction arising from the unfolding Euro crisis and from indications of a global economic slowdown, monetary policy activism or strong responses by central banks did result to distinctive impacts on the marketplace.

Emerging markets with the least inflationary pressures exhibited resiliency. ASEAN 4 bourses, going into the close of the New Year, were among the ten world’s best performers[8] and served as noteworthy examples of the above.

The relative performances of global bourses have likewise been reflected on the commodity markets[9].

4. Globalization Remained Strong which Partly Offset Weak Spots

While there had been signs of partial stagnation of global trade in terms of volume during the last semester of the 2011, trade volumes remained at near record highs and have hardly reflected on signs of severe downturn or a recession[10] despite the Euro crisis.

Since deepening trends of globalization (in finance and trade) has also been expanding the correlations of the financial markets[11], which has been largely characterized as ‘Risk On’ and ‘Risk Off’ environments, the aggressive actions by central banks and the non-recessionary global environment in the face of the Euro crisis and patchy signs of economic slowdown has partly neutralized such tight relationship which allowed for selective variances in asset performances.

Overall, almost every condition that I defined in December of 2010 had been validated.

5. Mostly Right Yet Too Optimistic

On how I expected the markets to perform, I wrote,

Unless inflation explodes to the upside and becomes totally unwieldy, overall, for ASEAN and for the Philippine Phisix we should see significant positive gains anywhere around 20-40% at the yearend of 2011 based on the close of 2010. Needless to say, the 5,000 level would seem like a highly achievable target. What the mainstream sees as an economic boom will signify a blossoming bubble cycle.

Of course my foremost barometer for the state of the global equity markets would be the price direction of gold, which I expect to continue to generate sustained gains and possibly clear out in a cinch the Roubini hurdle of $1,500.

To repeat, Gold hasn’t proven to be a deflation hedge as shown by its performance during the 2008 Lehman collapse. The performance of Gold during the Great Depression and today is different because gold served as a monetary anchor then. Today, gold prices act as a temperature that measures the conditions of the faith based paper money system.

2011 saw the Philippine Phisix and ASEAN bourses marginally up, which means that I have been too optimistic to suggest of a minimum 20% return that was way off the mark.

Nevertheless, it hasn’t been that bad since the long-time darling of mine, the Philippine mining index, overshot on my expectations.

And given that the mining sector’s extraordinary returns has alternated every year[12], it is unclear if mining index will remain to be the horse to beat. Yet, current global monetary dynamics may change all that.

Aside, another observation of mine has been validated.

Gold, allegedly a deflation hedge/refuge, has not turned out as many have said.

Except for the July-September frame, gold prices have largely moved along with the price direction of the S&P 500 (blue circles).

The July-September frame which marked a short-term deviation from the previously tight correlations seems to coincide with the end of the QE 3.0. This along with the unfolding Euro crisis put pressure on US equity markets first, which eventually culminated with FED chair Ben Bernanke’s jilting of the market’s expectations of QE 3.0.

The belated collapse of gold prices (red circle), in response to Mr. Bernanke’s frustrating of the market expectations for more asset purchasing measures, had been aggravated by other events such as the forced liquidations by MF Global[13] to resolve its bankruptcy and several trade ownership issues aside from other trade restrictions or market interventions[14] that has stymied on gold’s rally.

Nevertheless, the gold-S&P 500 linkage appears to have been revived, where both gold and the S&P has taken on an interim upside trend (green line).

The S&P 500 closed the year with microscopic losses while gold registered its 11^th year of consecutive gains, up 10% in 2011.

Expect Volatile Markets in 2012

When asked to comment on the prospects of the stock market, JP Morgan’s once famous resounding reply was that “It [Markets] will fluctuate”.

1. Markets will Fluctuate—Wildly

2012 will essentially continue with whatever 2011 has left off.

Since 2011 has been dominated by the whack-a-mole policies on what has been an extension of the global crisis of 2008, which in reality represents the refusal of political authorities for markets to clear or to make the necessary adjustments on the accrued massive malinvestments or misdirection of resource allocation in order to protect the political welfare based system anchored on the triumvirate of the politically endowed banking sectors, the central banks and governments, then we should expect the same conditions in 2011 to apply particularly

1. Monetary authorities will continue to keep interest rates at record or near record low levels.

2. Money printing via QE and bailouts will continue and could accelerate.

3. There will be divergent impact from different monetary policies and

4. Globalization will remain a critical factor that could partly counterbalance the nasty effects of the collective inflationist policies (unless the ugly head of protectionism emerges).

I would add that since presidential election season in the US is fast approaching, most candidates or aspirants including the incumbent have been audibly beating the war drums on Iran[15], where an outbreak may exacerbate political interventions in the US and in the global economy and importantly justify more monetary inflationism.

One must realize that continued politicization of the marketplace via boom bust and bailout policies compounded by various market interventions and the risk of another war has immensely been distorting price signals which should lead markets to fluctuate wildly.

2. China and Japan’s Hedge—Steer Clear of the US Dollar

And where reports say that China and Japan have commenced on promoting direct transactions[16] by using their national currencies hardly represents acts to buttress the current system.

The Bank of Japan has also been underwriting their own Quantitative Easing (QE) which means the Japanese government are engaged in ‘competitive devaluation’ which is no more than a ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policy.

Instead, what this implies is that Japan and China, being the largest holders of US debt, seem to be veering away from their extensive dependence on the US economy as they reckon with, not only interest rate and credit risks, but also of currency, inflation, political and market risks. Even China and Japan appear to be taking measures to insure themselves from wild fluctuations.

On the other hand, China’s bilateral currency agreement with Japan plays into her strategy to use her currency as the region’s foreign exchange reserve[17].

3. Heightened Inflation Risks from Monetary Policies

QE 3.0 has not been an official policy yet by the US Federal Reserve but their balance sheet seem to be ballooning anew (chart from the Cleveland Federal Reserve[18]).

Yet this, along with surging money supply and recovering consumer and business credit growth, will have an impact on the US asset markets which should also be transmitted to global financial markets, as well as, to the commodity markets.

Yet given the large refinancing requirements for many governments (more than $7.6 trillion[19]) and for major financial institutions this year amidst the unresolved crisis, I expect major central banks to step up their role of lender of last resort.

Again the sustainability of the easy money environment from low interest rates and money printing by central banks will depend on the interest rates levels which will be influenced by any of the following factors: 1) inflation expectations 2) state of demand for credit relative to supply 3) perception of credit quality and or 4) of the scarcity/availability of capital.

Today’s bailout policies have been enabled and facilitated by an environment of suppressed consumer price inflation rates, partly because of globalization, partly because of the temporal effects from price manipulations or market interventions and partly because of the ongoing liquidations in some segments of the global marketplace such as from MF Global, the crisis affected banking and finance sectors of the Eurozone and also perhaps in sectors impacted by the economic slowdown or the real estate exposed industries in China, which may be suffering from a contraction.

However I don’t believe that the current low inflation landscape will be sustainable in the face of sustained credit easing operations by the central banks of major economies. Price inflation will eventually surface that could lead to restrictive policy actions (which subsequently could lead to a bust) or sustained inflationism (which risks hyperinflation). Signs from one of which may become evident probably by the second semester of this year.

Yet I think we could be seeing innate signs this: Given the current monetary stance and increasing geopolitical risks, oil (WTI) has the potential to spike above the 2011 high of $114 which may lead to a test of a 2008 high of $147.

4. Phisix: Interim Fulfilment of Expectations and Working Target

In the meantime, I expect the Philippine Phisix and ASEAN markets to continue to benefit from the current easy money landscape helped by seasonal strength, improvements in the market internals, and in the reversals of bearish chart patterns as forecasted last December[20]

The bearish indicators of head and shoulders (green curves) and the ‘death cross’ have now been replaced by bullish signals as anticipated[21]. The Phisix chart has now transitioned to the golden cross while ‘reverse head and shoulders’ (blue curves and trend line) has successfully broken out of the formation. It doesn’t require relying on charts to see this happen. Even the Dow Jones Industrials has affirmed on my prognosis[22].

The S&P 500, oil (WTI) and the Phisix seem to manifest a newfound correlation or has reflects on a synchronized move,whether this relationship will hold or not remains to be seen.

I believe that the Phisix at the 5,000 level should represent a practical working yearend target; where anything above should be a bonus.

Again all these are conditional to the very fluid external political-financial environment, which includes risks from not only from the Eurozone, but from China and the importantly US—whose debt level is just $25 million shy from the debt ceiling[23] (probably the debt ceiling political risk will become more evident during the last semester).

Moreover, I believe that gold prices will continue to recover from the recent low.

Gains will crescendo as global policymakers will most likely ramp up on the printing presses. Gold will likely reclaim the 1,900 level sometime this year and could even go higher and will end the year on a positive note.

But then again all these are extremely dependent or highly sensitive to the situational responses of global policymakers.

Predicting social events or the markets in the way of natural sciences is a mistake.

As the great Ludwig von Mises explained [24],

Nothing could be more mistaken than the now fashionable attempt to apply the methods and concepts of the natural sciences to the solution of social problems. In the realm of nature we cannot know anything about final causes, by reference to which events can be explained. But in the field of human actions there is the finality of acting men. Men make choices. They aim at certain ends and they apply means in order to attain the ends sought.

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[1] See What To Expect In 2011, December 20, 2010

[2] See US Federal Reserve Goes For Subtle QE August 10, 2011

[3] Centralbanknews.info What Will 2012 Bring for Global Monetary Policy? December 27, 2011

[4] See Global Central Banks Ease the Most Since 2009, November 28, 2011

[5] Zero Hedge Top Three Central Banks Account For Up To 25% Of Developed World GDP, January 5, 2012

[6] See Hot: Swiss National Bank to Embrace Zimbabwe’s Gideon Gono model September 6, 2011

[7] See Bank of England Activates QE 2.0 October 6, 2011

[8] See Global Equity Market Performance Update: Philippine Phisix Ranks 6th among the Best, December 17, 2011

[9] See How Global Financial Markets Performed in 2011 December 31, 2011

[10] Key Trends in Globalization, New world trade data indicates slowdown but not recession in the global economy, November 25, 2011 ablog.typad.com

[11] Allstarcharts.com BCA Research: High Equity Correlations Are Here To Stay, January 4, 2011

[12] See Graphic of the PSE’s Sectoral Performance: Mining Sector and the Rotational Process, July 10, 2011

[13] See MF Global Fallout Haunts the Metal Markets, December 12, 2011

[14] See War On Gold: China Applies Selective Ban December 28, 2011

[15] See Could the US be using the Euro crisis to extract support for a possible war against Iran? January 8, 2012

[16] Bloomberg.com China, Japan to Back Direct Trade of Currencies, December 26, 2011

[17] See The Nonsense About Current Account Imbalances And Super-Sovereign Reserve Currency, April 20, 2011

[18] Cleveland Federal Reserve Credit Easing Policy Tools

[19] See World’s Biggest Economies Face $7.6 Trillion Bond Tab as Rally Seen Fading January 4, 2012

[20] See Phisix: Primed for an Upside Surprise December 11, 2011

[21] See How Reliable is the S&P’s ‘Death Cross’ Pattern?, August 14, 2011

[22] See US Equity Markets: From Death Cross to the Golden Cross, December 31, 2011

[23] Zerohedge.com Here We Go Again: US $25 Million Away From Debt Ceiling Breach, January 5, 2012

[24] von Mises Ludwig Misapprehended Darwinism, Refutation of Fallacies, Omnipotent Government p.120

Rising Demand for British Butlers by Emerging Market Super Rich

Super Chinese and Russian millionaires seem to have a penchant for English household workers.

Earlier I posted news which exhibited a surge in demand for British nannies, this time we are told that demand for English butlers have been the chic.

From the Bloomberg

English butlers, synonymous with Reginald Jeeves in the novels of P.G. Wodehouse, are answering more calls from super-rich Chinese and Russian clients as wealth shifts between east and west.

The Guild of Professional English Butlers has trained 20 percent more butlers this year than last, placing them with clients as soon as they are ready, according to Robert Watson, head of the firm in southern England, last week. The number of domestic staff registered with Greycoat Placements has trebled over the past three years, Managing Director Debbie Salter said.

“Demand is outstripping supply,” Watson said by telephone. “We deal with people who often are cash rich and time poor. The credit crunch did affect things for a time, but before you get rid of the butler, get rid of the Ferrari.”

As Europe struggles with a debt crisis and the U.S. tries to revive its economy, burgeoning growth in emerging markets is boosting spending on luxuries like never before, and creating opportunities for more people to look after them.

The ranks of millionaires in 10 major Asian economies will more than double to 2.8 million by 2015, according to a Julius Baer Group and CLSA Asia Pacific Markets report on Aug. 31. China’s economy grew 9.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, compared with U.S. growth of 1.5 percent.

We need to qualify who the nouveau super rich Chinese and Russians are, because many of them have attained their status via political privilege.

Yet, shifting preference for Western household workers by EM super millionaires could also signify symptoms of the ongoing wealth convergence from globalization.

And such dynamic could be magnified by the continuing trend to adapt inflationist policies by the West, as Emerging Markets open their economies to the world and or to domestic entrepreneurship. Interesting signs of evolving times.

Stanford University Expands Free Online Courses

I’ve been pointing out how the information age will reconfigure and transform almost every aspect of our lives including education. (see here here and here).

Education’s evolving online platform will put a lot of pressure to the incumbent school models designed out of the industrial age. And today’s high cost of tuition will eventually crumble, not only from online competition but also from globalization--where education will become less dependent on local or territorial access, and instead, will increasingly be facilitated by distance learning.

From ZDNET

A couple of months back, we reported on how some IT professors at Stanford University were opening up their courses for the world to participate, with no tuition cost. This fall, courses onIntroduction to Artificial Intelligence, Introduction to Databases and Introduction to Machine Learning were launched, all delivered between October and December. (I have been participating in the AI course, it’s really extremely well presented and informative.)

Three million people have checked out the AI course page since it was announced (now doubt driven by my blog post here), and course co-professor Peter Norvig reports that 35,000 students have stuck with the course and exams. There are also 135 students taking the course onsite, Norvig is quoted as saying in the Good News site,

Now it is being reported that due to the great success of the program, Stanford plans to offer eight more computer science classes beginning in January, including Software as a Service,Computer Science 101, Machine Learning, Cryptography, Natural Language Processing, Human Computer Interaction, Design and Analysis of Algorithms I, and Probabilistic Graphic Models.

Here is the write-up on the SaaS course:

“This course teaches the engineering fundamentals for long-lived software using the highly-productive Agile development method for Software as a Service (SaaS) using Ruby on Rails. Agile developers continuously refine and refactor a working but incomplete prototype until the customer is happy with result, with the customer offering continuous feedback. Agile emphasizes user stories to validate customer requirements; test-driven development to reduce mistakes; biweekly iterations of new software releases; and velocity to measure progress. We will introduce all these elements of the Agile development cycle, and go through one iteration by adding features to a simple app and deploying it on the cloud using tools like Github, Cucumber, RSpec, RCov, Pivotal Tracker, and Heroku.”

Being in the heart and brains of Silicon Valley, Stanford professors will also be offering two online courses on entrepreneurship. The entrepreneurship courses include Technology Entrepreneurship—a class on how to launch a successful startup, and The Lean Launchpad, which will teach how to turn “a great idea into a great company.”

At zero bound tuition costs, education will eventually become democratized worldwide, will not require or justify taxpayer funding and will become increasingly specialized.