Quote of the Day: Nassim Taleb on Bankers Ethics

Celebrated author of the Black Swan theory fame Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Spitznagel questions the propriety of nearly $5 trillion paid to bankers, who continues to operate on the model of privatizing profits and socializing losses.

They write, (bold emphasis mine)

One may wonder: If investment managers and their clients don’t receive high returns on bank stocks, as they would if they were profiting from bankers’ externalization of risk onto taxpayers, why do they hold them at all? The answer is the so-called “beta”: banks represent a large share of the S&P 500, and managers need to be invested in them.

We don’t believe that regulation is a panacea for this state of affairs. The largest, most sophisticated banks have become expert at remaining one step ahead of regulators – constantly creating complex financial products and derivatives that skirt the letter of the rules. In these circumstances, more complicated regulations merely mean more billable hours for lawyers, more income for regulators switching sides, and more profits for derivatives traders.

Investment managers have a moral and professional responsibility to play their role in bringing some discipline into the banking system.

So ad hoc conventionalism or peer pressures have been one of the key influences for the financial industry to shore up bank equities, which apparently has resulted to the unethical banking practices brought about by the sense of entitlement and moral hazard from continued government support.

Obviously this has been part of the comprehensive framework to buttress the decadent welfare state-central banking-banking system architecture.

Read the rest of their excellent piece here

More Signs of Decentralization: Europe Eyes Liberalization of Professions

Speaking of centralized forces giving way to decentralization, here is another very important development—parts of Europe now plans to liberalize professions

This from Bloomberg,

While Greece started lifting the legal shield for more than 150 jobs two months ago, Italy retains restrictions on who can enter professions. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi plans to strip away the protection as he tries to avert a debt crisis by revitalizing an economy that’s trailed the average growth rate for the euro region since its formation.

Fostering competition across the economy would boost growth by as much as 1.8 percentage points a year, according to Antonio Catricala, head of the country’s Antitrust Authority. That includes protected groups such as pharmacists, notaries, accountants and taxi drivers.

“A liberalization of professions and more in general of the whole economy may lead to additional growth,” Catricala said in a telephone interview. More competition would “have a positive impact on employment,” as joblessness among young people is about 30 percent, he said...

The parliament in Rome will vote as early as next week on a plan passed by Berlusconi’s cabinet on Aug. 12 that commits lawmakers to liberalizing the professions within a year. Some barriers, such as compulsory membership of professional groups and tests to join, would require changes to the constitution.

Important changes have been happening at the margins. Such transition would not be smooth though, as many entrenched forces will fight to preserve the status quo.

How the Information Age Affects Asian Banking

The McKinsey Quarterly writes, (bold emphasis mine)

Banks doing business in Asia face rapidly changing consumer behavior, with big consequences for both local and multinational institutions. Consumers increasingly prefer local banks over multinationals, are less loyal to existing banking relationships, are much more cautious about borrowing, and are more open to Internet and mobile banking. These shifts in the nature of banking relationships, product and service needs, and channels are reflected in a 2011 McKinsey survey of 20,000 consumers in 13 Asian markets...

Asian consumers are being weaned from brick-and-mortar branches: for the first time since McKinsey began conducting the survey, 13 years ago, bank branch usage has dropped, plunging by 27 percent on average across Asia between 2007 and 2011.

This drop has been matched by an uptick in Internet and mobile banking, a trend particularly pronounced in developed Asian markets, such as Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. There, consumers now use new channels, such as the Internet and mobile devices, for their banking more often than traditional ones, such as telephones and branches: the use of new channels rose to 3.2 times a month in 2011, from 2.35 in 2007, while that of traditional channels dropped to 2.57 times a month, from 3.5. In China, about 18 percent of all people who patronize banks now use Internet banking, compared with only 3 percent in 2007.

That shift arises largely from the increased penetration of remote channels. A growing number of customers across income segments are getting accustomed to and comfortable with them for both sales and service. The multichannel environment has thus become a reality: our research highlights the fact that, on average, Asian consumers are using as many as 5 channels for research and 1.8 channels for maintenance.

Some comments

The rapid shift in the preferences of Asian consumers reveals of the increasing personalization or specialization of markets. This extrapolates to an intensifying trend of de-massification of financial services towards niche markets or a transition from products and services designed for the masses towards decentralization or localization. Providers who cannot cope will this seismic development will perish. This is the forces of creative destruction at work.

And this paradigm shift is being enabled and facilitated by the internet which again exhibits how the web revolution has immensely been affecting people’s lifestyle.

In addition, this is another proof that people are getting to be more sophisticated with an extended reach or access to information.

This also means more value added services for the increasingly discriminate consumers.

The forces of centralization seems to be paving way for reign of the forces of decentralization.

The great F. A. Hayek’s knowledge revolution is underway.

P.S. My computer hasn't normalized yet so my post will remain limited

Asian Capital Markets Likely a Beneficiary of Europe’s High Taxes and Regulatory Maze

“If you tax something, you get less of it”, that’s Professor Mark Perry’s Economics 101

The following should be a great example, from Bloomberg, (bold highlights mine)

Banks in Europe are exploring ways to cut costs by routing more of their trades and other business through overseas subsidiaries, a plan that may shift tax revenue away from London and loosen European regulators’ influence over the lenders.

Nomura Holdings Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and UBS AG (UBSN) are among lenders preparing plans to book as much business as possible through legal entities in jurisdictions where tax rates are lower and rules on capital and liquidity are less onerous, the banks and lawyers and accountants working with them say.

“Every bank is trying to work out the best way to be structured under the new rules,” Chris Matten, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in Singapore, said in a telephone interview. “It’s not just a question of what activities banks are in. It’s about which entities they put that business through and in which jurisdictions.”

Banks could record as much as 30 percent of the value of their trades through Hong Kong, Singapore and other jurisdictions instead of hubs such as London and New York without running into trouble with regulators, Matten said. Such a move would hurt traditional hubs such as London because assets are treated for tax and regulatory purposes in the country where they are booked. It would also allow banks to sidestep the U.K. bank levy, introduced last year to raise 2.5 billion pounds ($4.1 billion) from lenders operating in Britain, as well as any financial transaction tax imposed by the European Union.

This is one major lesson politicians and their followers can’t seem to digest, absorb or learn.

Nevertheless, this is also one major factor that could drive funds and the banking business to Asia.

Their loss could be our gain, that’s if we heed of the fundamental truism shown above.

Quote of the Day: Ludwig von Mises on Fascism

Fascism, as defined by dictionary.com, is a government system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc…, and emphasizing on aggressive nationalism and often racism

In today’s political environment, here and abroad, almost all aspects of civil and economic liberties have been under assault from the gradualist expansion of implicit fascism; think bailouts, QEs, manipulated interest rates, war on commodities, bans on short sales, smoking, anti-smoke belching and etc…

Nevertheless, this prescient block quote from the great Ludwig von Mises written in 1927 runs valid today [Liberalism, The Argument of Fascism, Chapter 1 Section 10]

What distinguishes liberal from Fascist political tactics is not a difference of opinion in regard to the necessity of using armed force to resist armed attackers, but a difference in the fundamental estimation of the role of violence in a struggle for power. The great danger threatening domestic policy from the side of Fascism lies in its complete faith in the decisive power of violence. In order to assure success, one must be imbued with the will to victory and always proceed violently. This is its highest principle. What happens, however, when one's opponent, similarly animated by the will to be victorious, acts just as violently? The result must be a battle, a civil war. The ultimate victor to emerge from such conflicts will be the faction strongest in number. In the long run, a minority -- even if it is composed of the most capable and energetic -- cannot succeed in resisting the majority. The decisive question, therefore, always remains: How does one obtain a majority for one's own party? This, however, is a purely intellectual matter. It is a victory that can be won only with the weapons of the intellect, never by force. The suppression of all opposition by sheer violence is a most unsuitable way to win adherents to one's cause. Resort to naked force -- that is, without justification in terms of intellectual arguments accepted by public opinion -- merely gains new friends for those whom one is thereby trying to combat. In a battle between force and an idea, the latter always prevails.

Fascism can triumph today because universal indignation at the infamies committed by the socialists and communists has obtained for it the sympathies of wide circles. But when the fresh impression of the crimes of the Bolsheviks has paled, the socialist program will once again exercise its power of attraction on the masses. For Fascism does nothing to combat it except to suppress socialist ideas and to persecute the people who spread them. If it wanted really to combat socialism, it would have to oppose it with ideas. There is, however, only one idea that can be effectively opposed to socialism, viz., that of liberalism.

It has often been said that nothing furthers a cause more than creating, martyrs for it. This is only approximately correct. What strengthens the cause of the persecuted faction is not the martyrdom of its adherents, but the fact that they are being attacked by force, and not by intellectual weapons. Repression by brute force is always a confession of the inability to make use of the better weapons of the intellect -- better because they alone give promise of final success. This is the fundamental error from which Fascism suffers and which will ultimately cause its downfall. The victory of Fascism in a number of countries is only an episode in the long series of struggles over the problem of property. The next episode will be the victory of Communism. The ultimate outcome of the struggle, however, will not be decided by arms, but by ideas. It is ideas that group men into fighting factions, that press the weapons into their hands, and that determine against whom and for whom the weapons shall be used. It is they alone, and not arms, that, in the last analysis, turn the scales.

So much for the domestic policy of Fascism. That its foreign policy, based as it is on the avowed principle of force in international relations, cannot fail to give rise to an endless series of wars that must destroy all of modern civilization requires no further discussion. To maintain and further raise our present level of economic development, peace among nations must be assured. But they cannot live together in peace if the basic tenet of the ideology by which they are governed is the belief that one's own nation can secure its place in the community of nations by force alone.

It cannot be denied that Fascism and similar movements aiming at the establishment of dictatorships are full of the best intentions and that their intervention has, for the moment, saved European civilization. The merit that Fascism has thereby won for itself will live on eternally in history. But though its policy has brought salvation for the moment, it is not of the kind which could promise continued success. Fascism was an emergency makeshift. To view it as something more would be a fatal error.

Intellect versus force, that’s the essence of classical liberalism.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito", this favorite quote of Prof von Mises comes from Vigil which means "do not give into evil but proceed ever more boldly against it".

Hat tip: Cato’s Jason Kuznicki

P-Noy’s Entourage is a Showcase of the Philippine Political Economy

“As a society, culturally we get what we celebrate”, that’s how prolific Forbes nanotech analyst-writer Josh Wolfe describes the importance of role models in shaping society.

Who we celebrate essentially reflects on our actions. For instance, if we worship politicians and celebrities, we tend to follow their actions. Our time orientation would narrow to match with theirs.

And having a short term time preference means we value today more than the future, thus we would be predisposed to indulge in gambling, hedonistic (high risk but self gratifying) activities and political actions that would dovetail with such values.

However, if we see entrepreneurs or scientists as our role models then we are likely to value the future more than today. We would learn of the essence of savings, capital accumulation and trade.

What has this got to do with P-Noy’s trip to China? A lot.

President Aquino’s entourage simply is a showcase of how the Philippine political economy works.

From today’s Inquirer

Underlining the trade and investment slant of his state visit to China, President Benigno Aquino III arrived here with a 270-strong business delegation, including the Philippines’ top industry leaders.

It is the biggest business contingent of Mr. Aquino’s foreign trips.

And for what stated reason? Newswires say this is meant to secure $60 billion worth of investments.

According to Bloomberg,

The Philippines may secure as much as $60 billion in Chinese investments under a five-year plan to be signed during Aquino’s stay, Christine Ortega, assistant secretary for foreign affairs, told reporters in Manila on Aug. 24. This trip alone may bring $7 billion in commitments, Trade Undersecretary Cristino Panlilio told reporters in Beijing yesterday…

Aquino is counting on investments to boost economic growth that slowed for a fourth straight quarter. Gross domestic product increased 3.4 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, from a revised 4.6 percent in the first quarter, the National Statistical Coordination Board said today.

Lagging Investments

Net foreign direct investment in the Philippines fell 13 percent to $1.7 billion in 2010 from a year earlier, the central bank said in March. Between 1970 to 2009, the country lured $32.3 billion in FDI, compared with $104.1 billion for Thailand, according to United Nations data.

Higher returns on investments will come from resources “that have been untapped for such a long time,” Aquino said in an Aug. 18 interview, citing plans to explore for energy in the South China Sea. Two of 15 blocks put out for tender in June are in waters China claims.

The Philippines plans to boost hydrocarbon reserves by 40 percent in the next two decades. Mineral fuels accounted for 17 percent of total monthly imports on average last year, from 11 percent in 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“We want to resolve the conflicting claims so that we can have our own gas,” Aquino said Aug. 29. “Once we have our own, we will not be affected by events in other parts of the world.”

First of all it isn’t true that the Philippines have little access to $60 billion worth of funds for investment.

In fact, the Philippines has a disproportion of savings to investment as shown below.

National savings alone is almost enough to bankroll these required investments (charts above and below from ADB)

Yet this doesn’t even count other domestic assets which can be used as collateral or as alternative sources for funding.

The Philippine Equity markets had a market cap of $202 billion as of the last trading day of 2010.

Foreigners hold around 20% of the market cap; even assuming 50% foreign ownership that’s still $100 billion worth of potential collateral.

And we also have the corporate bond markets (4.1% of GDP) and vast property assets which because of the lack of secured property rights, around 67% of rural residents in the Philippines live in housing that is considered as ‘dead capital’ which is worth about $133 billion Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto estimated in 2001 in his book, the Mystery of Capital

In other words, many of the big shot investors who went with P-Noy do not see sufficient returns on their investments, hence have been reluctant to deploy their savings on local investments.

They instead went with the President to supposedly seek out “partners” to 'spread the risks'.

On the other hand, these business honchos will likely use this opportunity to invest overseas!

Why then the lack of domestic investments?

Aside from the lack or insufficient protection of property rights, a very important hurdle to investments is simply the inhospitable environment for investors.

As the table above shows, the Philippine economy has been strangled or choked by politics.

So bringing in a high powered presidential entourage won’t help unless there would be dramatic structural reforms on our political institutions that would encourage profitable investments.

Most of the deals that would be obtained from this trip will likely be political privileges or concessions (most possibly backed by implicit guarantees from the Philippine government).

This brings us to the significance of role models.

Essentially, P-Noy sees big business as the main way to entice investments or reinvigorate the economy, hence this star-studded retinue (could this be a junket??)

Why leave out the public, when I would presuppose that much of the investable savings are held by them? Is it because that, as his political supporters, this would serve as the ripe opportunity to be rewarded (with state induced deals)?

Or is this authorative show of force simply been about showmanship? (Public choice theory is right again showing how politicians are attracted to symbolisms to promote their self interests)

Bottom line: P-Noy’s China trip reveals of the essence of the Philippine political economy; economic opportunities allocated or provided for by the state.

In short, state or crony capitalism.

Asians are World’s Top Blog Readers

That’s according to Comscore.com

Global analysis of the Blog category revealed that Japan led all markets in blog engagement, with the average visitor in Japan spending more than an hour (62.6 minutes) visiting blogs in June. South Korea ranked second with an average of 49.6 minutes on blog sites, followed by Poland at 47.7 minutes.

Japan was also among the top markets for Blog category penetration with 80.5 percent of its online population visiting blogs in June. Taiwan ranked highest globally with 85.5 percent of its online population visiting blogs, followed by Brazil (85.2 percent reach), South Korea (84.9 percent reach) and Turkey (81.9 percent reach).

There could be many interpretations from the above survey.

For one it shows of the deepening extent of web based information acquisition most possibly at the expense of traditional media.

Another, the breadth of readership has been globalized and has not been limited to developed economies.

Next, more and more people are learning to appreciate blogs as one of the principal web based sources of information.

From a marketing point of view, the above represents as high growth markets which any enterprising bloggers could capitalize on.

Lastly, the above dynamics can be seen as increasing manifestations of the democratization of information and knowledge, or of the intensification of the information or knowledge revolution.

As the great Friedrich von Hayek once wrote,

The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

The knowledge revolution should serve as catalysts to the development of transformational ideas that could promote innovation via the ‘Bourgeois revaluation’ or heightened appreciation of the benefits of free market or laissez faire capitalism.

The knowledge revolution and increased social connectivity should also deepen specialization (division of labor) and encourage more voluntary trade and commerce.

And importantly, attune greater number of people towards more decentralized path or way of social interactions, which alternatively means to wean away from the vertical flow (e.g. mass education, mass media) or structures (e.g. centralized bureaucracies, mass production) or lifestyles (e.g. 9-5 work schedules, mass cultures) derived from the industrial age template.

These material changes are hardly appreciated by the public but will persist as the world evolves.

UPDATE: My blog's readership departs from the comscore survey, where most of my readers come from Northern America, UK and the Philippines, as one would observe from the lower right column of this blog. My experience may be shared by many local bloggers too.

Nonetheless my comments above have been mostly premised on the comscore survey.

Third Week for ECB’s QE: 6.7 billion Euros

Last week accounted for the third week where the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Quantitative Easing (QE) has been in action.

This from Reuters, (bold emphasis mine)

The ECB said on Monday it had more than halved its bond purchases to 6.7 billion euros last week. The central bank had bought a record 22 billion euros in the week to Aug. 12, when it intervened in the bond market after 19 weeks of inactivity.

Continued support from the central bank remains crucial to prop up investors' confidence in the short-term, analysts and traders said, amid uncertainties over a second bailout package for Greece.

Adding to markets' jitters, Italy is struggling to agree changes to a 45.5 billion euro austerity package the government hastily approved this month in return for the ECB's help and which is making its way through parliament.

"Italy needs to convince the market it can make it without help from the ECB," Cazzulani said.

This follows the previous two weeks of €22 billion and €14.3 billion of bond buying where ECB’s debt monetization facility has now reached €120.3 billion, according to Zero Hedge.

The above news account only exhibits that global financial markets have been artificially propped up by actions of major global central banks, in the hope that markets will be assuaged by the political tokenism applied by crisis affected governments in reforming their system.

The fact is that there hardly has been any meaningful free market reforms or reforms aimed to improve on the real economy. Resources are, in this process, merely being rechanneled or transferred from the welfare state to the banking system.

The underlying goal has been to preserve the banking system, which has over the years bankrolled the welfare state, through government bonds. And the welfare state-banking system relationship has been backed, regulated and implicitly guaranteed by the central banks.

Professor Gary North aptly writes,

Governments always announce and defend by monopolistic violence their legal sovereignty over money. They say that they will control the terms of exchange. All monetary standards are based on government promises and IOUs called government bonds. These contracts are always broken by governments.

Contracts are being broken consistently as governments’ inflate in order to uphold the current welfare based political system.

A system that depends on inflation is never sustainable.

Apples to Oranges: The Gold-Stock Market Spread

[Note: I am operating from a borrowed computer]

Stocks are cheap when seen from gold, that’s according to some experts.

From Bloomberg’s chart of the day,

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the price spread between the SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks bullion, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, a fund which mimics the performance of the 30 stocks in the index. The premium widened by the most since the fund for the precious metal was started in November 2004.

Gold surged to an all-time high above $1,900 an ounce last week, pushing the value of bullion to $9.1 trillion based on cumulative supply, or about 2.75 times the market capitalization of companies in the Dow index, said John Wadle, head of regional banks research at the Hong Kong unit of Mirae Asset. Companies in the U.S. equities gauge have an average dividend yield of 2.7 percent and trade at 11.3 times estimated earnings as of Aug. 25, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Gold is now a bubble compared with U.S. blue-chip stocks,” Wadle said in an e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. U.S. equities are “massively undervalued” based on future dividend yields of more than 3 percent, compared with no investment yields and storage costs associated with gold, he said in a report. Billionaire George Soros cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust this year as prices rallied, while Paulson & Co., the hedge fund run by John Paulson, remained the largest holder, according to regulatory filings this month.

This represents apples to oranges comparison.

First of all, the stock market essentially operates from the premise of risk relative to rewards or returns from expected streams of future business revenues. There is no revenue stream or cash flow for gold.

Second, current policies maintained by governments have been to serially inflate bubbles. The main effect has been continued volatility in the stock markets.

Meanwhile price actions of gold have been manifesting the chronic malady from the cumulative effects of such political actions.

Third, there has hardly been a bubble in gold prices. The bubble is in paper money, government bonds and the tripartite 20^th century designed political institutions functioning on the cartelized system of the welfare-warfare state, the central banks and the politically privileged banking system.

Fourth, gold prices have been more correlated with actions of the stock market, than used as a measure against it.

As I recently wrote,

Gold prices seems as in a cyclical downturn, that's because of sharply OVERBOUGHT conditions. On the other hand, global stock markets has been on a bounce largely due to OVERSOLD conditions (backed by expectations of added steroids).

The correlations of Gold and equity markets has been predominantly positive, where gold prices has risen in the backdrop of rising equity markets, except for the past quarter (sorry I am operating in an internet cafe, that's why I can't attach charts to give evidence).

That evidence can be seen in the above chart, where the flow of gold prices has essentially mirrored the actions of the S&P 500 (see blue lline) for the past 3 years. Such correlation can even be seen in the Philippine Phisix below.

It is only during the last quarter where such correlations (see red ellipse) has broken down.

True, correlations between assets perpetually changes as people’s actions respond to changes in the environment and to changes in the incentives that underpins their actions.

But the point here is it would seem unworthy to compare gold (what can be seen as money) with conventional risk assets as stocks or bonds and infer recommendations based on flimsy grounds.

Fox News Interview: Ron Paul Explains the Austrian School of Economics

At this Fox interview, Presidential candidate Ron Paul deals with the coming elections, the Fema, US Foreign policy and the Austrian School of economics (hat tip Bob Wenzel)

The Twilight Age of the Aircraft Carriers

Even the course of conventional-traditional warfare will be adapting to the ever changing realities. Vastly technology-enhanced anti-ship ballistic missile will render aircraft carriers obsolete

Writes Eric Margolis,

Batteries of DF-21D’s based safely inland may keep the US Navy far off China’s coasts, isolate Taiwan, and threaten US bases in Japan, Okinawa and Guam. In fact, the mere existence of the DF-21D’s and their deployment in sizeable numbers may be enough to keep US carriers at least 2,000 km from China’s coasts, thus beyond the useful range of the carrier’s strike aircraft…

But anti-ship missiles are lethal to carriers. Layered anti-ship missile defense can stop small number of attacking missiles. But if enough high-speed missiles are fired, and from different directions, at least one or two will permeate carrier and escort defenses.

Just one missile, filled with explosives and fuel, hitting a carrier will cause massive damage and fires that will put the great capitol ship out of action. I have joined numerous naval warfare simulations: in almost every case, some anti-ship missiles fired by enemy aircraft and subs inevitably leaked through layered defenses and hit the carriers. Each carrier and its escorts costs over $25 billion (not including its aircraft). They simply cannot be risked against relatively inexpensive Chinese missiles.

Officially, the US Navy denies claims its beloved carriers are increasingly vulnerable. The Navy’s brass is dominated by former naval aviators, just as the pre-war US Navy was run by battleship admirals. There is huge institutional bias against abandoning big attack carriers, just as there is bitter Navy and Air Force opposition to abandoning manned fighter aircraft and relying on drones.

Which makes all the more amazing an article in the May 2011 issue of the US Naval Institute Proceedings (for which I’ve written) by two Pentagon strategists urging an immediate end to building aircraft carriers, “Proceedings” is the voice of the US naval establishment.

For this heresy to be printed is a bombshell. But a needed one. It’s time the US Navy face facts and plan for the obsolescence of its attack carriers. There will still be a role for smaller carriers carrying drones and helicopters, but in wartime, the days of the mighty flattop that won the epic WWII victories at Midway and the Marianas are over.

Aircraft carriers signify as artifacts of the industrial age warfare. The information age (Third Wave) will radically change even the methods of engagement of military conflicts.

Global Central Bankers Call For Fiscal Expansion

Central bankers don’t want to take the entire burden of reflating their respective economies.

From Bloomberg, (bold emphasis mine)

Central bankers gathered at an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend had a message for political leaders: monetary policy alone can’t keep the global expansion going.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urged adoption of “good, proactive housing policies” to reverse the depressed U.S. real estate market and warned lawmakers to avoid steps that may hurt short-term growth. Ewald Nowotny of the European Central Bank Governing Council said euro-area governments should expand the powers of their regional bailout fund.

“Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank,” Bernanke said at the annual conference of policy makers and economists, sponsored by the Kansas City Fed.

The call to arms ended a month in which the Fed and the ECB raced to shield their economies from fiscal tightening and strengthen a world economy that is losing momentum…

Warning of a “dangerous new phase” for the world economy, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde told the forum that risks have been aggravated by “a growing sense that policy makers do not have the conviction, or simply are not willing, to take the decisions that are needed.”

‘Twin Perils’

“Fiscal policy must navigate between the twin perils of losing credibility and undercutting recovery,” said Lagarde, who took the helm of the IMF in July.

Bernanke told the conference that the U.S. central bank still has a “range of tools” it could use to help the economy if needed, although he stopped short of signaling that the Fed would embark on a third round of government bond buying.

Central bankers essentially want global governments to reengage in expansionary fiscal actions or the euphemism for increasing government spending.

Regardless of whether this has proven to be effective or not, for policymakers what has been more important is the MEANS (borrow, tax and or inflate to spend) to attain an END (recovery).

Monumental amounts of money (or resources) have been thrown into the system since 2008 (or in about 3 years), yet the economic recovery of crisis-afflicted nations has continued to stagger.

This only shows that for policymakers, only the short term impact matters.

Never mind if most of these stimulus programs would end up in waste. Wasted resources represent consumed capital which is an obstacle to a real recovery.

Never mind if these measures would only be funnelled to the pockets of vested interest groups such as the politically privileged banking sector or the military industrial complex. The political redistribution of resources would only translate to the furtherance of political, wealth and social inequalities which many mistakenly blame on laissez faire capitalism, when in truth it has been crony or state capitalism, particularly the cartelized system of welfare-warfare government-central banking-banking system and the preservation of which, that has been responsible for the current mess.

Never mind if higher taxes would be another important consequence from such actions. Yet high taxes would serve as another vital impediment to genuine recovery overtime.

Never mind that in combination with central bank activities these activities would cause a surge in consumer prices that would not only hamper economic recovery but also stoke geopolitical and domestic destabilization since inflationism distorts economic calculation and impairs the division of labor.

The world has been continually living off from steroids provided for by the governments. These are symptoms of a rapidly degenerating system.

Ayn Rand said it best,

When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed.

Such charades won’t last.

The Broken Window Fallacy as seen from my Damaged Computer

If there is anything I can share with you this week, it is the practical economic lessons from the broken window fallacy as seen from my continuing anguish with my damaged computer.

For now, there are two possible alternatives to my computer dilemma: hope that the repair turns out fine and done soonest, or that I may be forced to acquire a new one.

Over the past few days, the activities of my post computer crash life has revolved around

plying back and forth to the repair center by use of cabs,

getting limited access to the web from several internet café

taking meals outside in support of the above

For people who see destruction as a way of prosperity, they would focus on the money I would be spending on the repair center (if repaired) or the retail outfit and the computer manufacturer (if replacement) and the ancillary costs of these activities—taxi fare, computer rental fees and meals from vendors--as helping the economy.

However they would ignore or downplay the impact of my losses.

For me, money spent for either repair or replacement and all of the additional costs would have been money meant to buy a pair of new shoes or a new tablet.

This means that instead of my normal computer AND a new pair of shoes, or my normal computer AND a new tablet, at the end of the day, I would only have a ‘normal’ computer. Or the opportunity cost from my actions to repair or replace the existing damaged computer is a pair of shoes or a tablet. Instead of TWO goods I end up with one. So there is NO value added from the repair or the replacement.

In addition, as I await the verdict of the computer service center, my output has been vastly reduced. I can only make 1 post on my blog, where I usually make an average of 3 per day, and importantly, I wouldn’t be sending any weekend reports to my clients. So productivity has likewise been affected.

[Aside, my savings has allowed me to consider the two options, if I had no savings I would be at a total loss.]

I also have not been on track with what’s been happening on the global financial markets, as I told my principals that I would be ‘trading blind’. Such dislocation has brought me a great deal of distress. You see, the web has altered my way of living such that I have been become greatly dependent on it. This brings about the adverse mental aspects from such displacement or losses.

While these may represent as my personal issues, when amplified as natural or manmade disasters you would notice that destruction doesn’t lead to prosperity. While some economic agents may indeed prosper from such misfortune, the overall the damage would be greater than the peripheral benefits.

Statistics cannot articulate the mental and emotional strains and real productivity and purchasing power losses from the economics of destruction. Be leery of anyone who tells you so.

War on Drugs Failure: Alabang Boys Acquittal

Notice: This is horrible for me, the long weekend means an extended limited access to the web. Worse, I fear that my data could have been lost.

Here is an example of the futility of the War on Drugs

From the Inquirer.net

A “glaring blunder” in the handling of evidence has led to the acquittal of two of the so-called “Alabang Boys” arrested in 2008 for the alleged possession and sale of 60 “ecstasy” tablets.

“That (breach) in the chain of custody of evidence became a fatal flaw,” Justice Secretary Leila de Lima said Friday after a Muntinlupa Regional Trial Court judge dismissed the charges against Richard Brodett and Jorge Joseph, citing the prosecution’s failure to prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt.

Here we see how government enforces a law but fails to successfully prosecute out of sheer incompetence. One can argue that this may be deliberate or not.

Another, this also shows how the war on drugs is nothing more than a tool for politicization or the law is used for political ends.

Next, the above exhibits the arbitrary or selective application of the law as the well-off can get off the hook or the system can be gamed. One can call this political inequality.

To add, government's action represents unwarranted coercion. The failure to prosecute means civil liberties of the accused have been trampled.

This goes to show that noble intentions can't square with reality or that the applied cure is worse than the disease.

Blogging Hiatus

Dear Readers,

My computer's operating system crashed. And the repair center says that it might or could take a few days to restore to the factory default conditions. So I will have limited access to the web. This means my blog posts will either be limited, or I will be in a recess.

Thank you for your patronage and understanding

Benson

Gold Prices Dive on Cyclical Profit Taking

Gold prices fell sharply last night as stock markets rose.

This is how the mainstream sees it; from the Associated Press.

Gold prices plunged 5.6 percent Wednesday as investors grew more confident about the global economy.

Gold dropped $104 to finish at $1,757.30 an ounce. It was the steepest percentage drop since March 2008. Gold is still up 24 percent for the year.

After markets closed Wednesday, exchange operator CME Group said it was raising its collateral requirements for gold trading. Earlier Wednesday China also required traders to set aside more collateral when borrowing money to buy gold.

Investors have been buying gold because of concerns about economic weakness in the United States and Europe as well as a stretch of severe volatility in financial markets that began in early August.

This is mere rationalization of the current events. Gold steep decline hasn't been about 'confidence', as these confidence has been artificially boosted.

As I earlier explained

Gold’s recent phenomenal rise has been parabolic! Gold has essentially skyrocketed by $1,050+ in less than TWO weeks! Gold prices jumped by 6% this week. The vertiginous ascent means gold prices may be susceptible to a sharp downside action (similar to Silver early this year) from profit takers.

In short, Newton's third law of motion applies "To every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction"

Gold prices seems as in a cyclical downturn, that's because of sharply OVERBOUGHT conditions. On the other hand, global stock markets has been on a bounce largely due to OVERSOLD conditions (backed by expectations of added steroids).

The correlations of Gold and equity markets has been predominantly positive, where gold prices has risen in the backdrop of rising equity markets, except for the past quarter (sorry I am operating in an internet cafe, that's why I can't attach charts to give evidence).

Gold prices will continue to rise over the long term as the welfare-warfare state will continue to inflate in order to meet political goals which has mostly been directed towards the preservation of the current political order.

My Prayer to the Lord on Krugman’s Wish for More Destruction

[IMPORTANT UPDATE: The Krugman google+ quote below is an admitted forgery. Although Mr. Krugman could have said this in different ways. Forgery isn't justifiable.]

The Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman posted at the google+

People on twitter might be joking, but in all seriousness, we would see a bigger boost in spending and hence economic growth if the earthquake had done more damage

Dear Lord,

In reading the above, I became distraught when I realized that people of high stature would actually wish or even impliedly invoke harm, damage or loss on other people for the sake of statistics.

In case You should grant Mr. Krugman and his followers their wishes, I do pray that You would not include them in that specter of greater destruction.

That’s because if you did, they will be spending for repairs, hospitalization expenses, reconstruction and etc…, money which they would have spent for other useful and more desirable things than on contingents.

Although they could be helping out the economy as they claim this would, it would be better that they be left unscathed, so that they can keep on telling half truths which the world so badly needs.

I pray too that Mr. Krugman and his followers would not suffer from the losses of lives and injuries associated with the accompanying devastation.

Because if You allowed this to happen, I would suppose that Mr. Krugman and company will also suffer from the misery, trauma and tragedy of the losses of family members, relatives close friends, colleagues and or associates.

Also they might even endure the agony of medical recuperation and therapy if they have been wounded. And if this is so, they will have to consume their savings unless they are adequately covered by insurance. Again they would be diverting money to spending on emergency than on attaining more convenience during 'normal' times.

And under the period of rehabilitation they may not be able to spread their negative knowledge to their disciples and to the gullible.

And they may not be also paid by their respective employers if their treatment will be prolonged or if they become permanently handicapped.

As I understand, the economy is about interacting human beings, where losses of lives and physical impairment translates to the reduction of human capital. And losses of human life, I understand essentially reduces, and not adds to, real economic growth.

If You so decide to take away all our lives and leave only Mr. Krugman and his followers alive, there won't be much to spend on because there will hardly be anyone left to produce to serve the needs of these hallowed survivalists. And countless green pieces of paper won't do anything too.

Most importantly I pray that Mr. Krugman and his followers will be forgiven for their misanthropic desires and dogmatic superciliousness.

And that such forgiveness be extended to me for my aghast response over what seems for me as a demented opinion.

Thanks for listening,

Benson

The Coming Global Debt Default Binge: Moody’s Downgrades Japan

The global debt default binge is in process with credit rating downgrades signifying as the initial symptoms.

US credit rating agency Moody’s today downgraded Japan.

From Bloomberg, (bold emphasis mine)

Japan’s debt rating was lowered by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited “weak” prospects for economic growth that will make it difficult for the government to rein in the world’s largest public debt burden.

Moody’s cut the grade one step to Aa3, with a stable outlook, it said in a statement today. Rebuilding costs from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, along with continuing efforts to contain the Fukushima nuclear crisis, may make it hard for officials to meet their borrowing target this year, it said.

The first Japan downgrade by Moody’s since 2002 reflects deteriorating credit quality across developed nations from Italy to the U.S., which lost its AAA status at Standard & Poor’s this month. While the move adds to the challenges of the next Japanese prime minister, scheduled to be picked next week, the impact on bond yields may be limited by what Moody’s described as domestic investors’ preference for government debt.

The rerating has also been felt in the CDS markets…

The cost of insuring corporate and sovereign bonds in Japan against default increased, according to traders of credit- default swaps. The Markit iTraxx Japan index rose 7 basis points to 153 basis points as of 12:09 p.m. in Tokyo, on course for its highest level since June 10, 2010, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc. and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market…

Today’s rating move brings Japan to the same level as China, showing the diverging paths of Asia’s two biggest economies. China replaced Japan as the world’s No. 2 last year and Moody’s has a positive outlook on its ranking

But debt acquisition won’t be curtailed despite the downgrade…

Moody’s said today’s decision was “prompted by large budget deficits and the build-up in Japanese government debt since the 2009 global recession.”

Japan’s public debt is projected to reach 219 percent of gross domestic product next year even before accounting for borrowing to fund reconstruction after the March 11 earthquake, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The government has amassed a debt of 943.8 trillion yen, according to the Finance Ministry, after two decades of fiscal spending to energize an economy hobbled by the collapse of an asset bubble in 1990 and lingering deflation that’s sapped private demand. The yen’s advance to a post World War II high this year also threatens exports, a main driver of the nation’s economic growth…

The government has pledged to raise the sales tax to 10 percent by the middle of the decade, a rate that would still be below the IMF’s recommendations. The additional revenue is intended to pay for social welfare for the aging population.

Japan’s government plans total spending of 19 trillion yen over five years to rebuild after the magnitude-9 temblor and tsunami that devastated the northeast coast of Japan and triggered the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl.

Politicians won’t learn until forced upon by economic realities.

So the initial preemptive response to the anticipated downgrade has been to inflate the system using the recent triple whammy calamity as pretext.

Finally, it certainly is not true that current developments recognized as “fiscal austerity” have been about getting off the welfare state-big government-deficit spending path.

What has been happening instead is the political process where massive amount of resources are being transferred from the welfare state to the banking sector.

Global political leaders are hopeful that by rescuing the politically privileged interconnected banks, they can bring 'normalcy' back to the 20th century designed politically entwined institutions of the welfare state-banking system-central banking system.

Proof?

Just look how the Japanese government (and other developed governments) addresses their dilemma—mostly by raising taxes!

As the illustrious Milton Friedman once said,

In the long run government will spend whatever the tax system will raise, plus as much more as it can get away with. That’s what history tells us. So my view has always been: cut taxes on any occasion, for any reason, in any way, that’s politically feasible. That’s the only way to keep down the size of government.

So tax increases equates to the preservation of the welfare state or big government.

Unfortunately, the system has already been foundering from under its own weight. And importantly, politicians apparently blase to these risks, continue to impose measures that would only increase the system's fragility. What is unsustainable won't last.

Sensing Steroids, US Equity Markets Sharply Rebounds

Last night the US equity markets made a substantial move

Here’s how the mainstream sees it. This from Bloomberg, (bold emphasis)

U.S. stocks rallied, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up from the cheapest valuations since 2009, as weaker-than-estimated economic data reinforced optimism the Federal Reserve will act to spur growth.

Monsanto Co. (MON), Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) added at least 3 percent, pacing gains in companies most-tied to the economy. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index rose 2.9 percent, breaking a five-day losing streak. Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) jumped 10 percent, the most since May 2010, after the Wall Street Journal said it will start selling Apple Inc.’s iPhone. Financial shares reversed losses after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s list of “problem” banks shrank for the first time since 2006.

I have talked about this earlier here

This only shows that current behavior of stock markets

-has hardly been driven by earnings but by politics,

-have been artificially boosted

-reacts like Pavlov’s Dogs, and

-importantly like addicts, has totally become dependent on steroids.

Never mind if recent reports say that stimulus money ends up going to the coffers of the rent-seekers, as graph of the bailout money by the US Federal Reserve in 2008 shows

From Bloomberg interactive

The important thing is to have the Fed print money to pacify Wall Street insiders, who constitute part of the cartelized incumbent political system.

Profit from folly.

Graphic: Distribution Share of World Market Cap

…of select countries.

Below is another deck of wonderful and telling charts from Bespoke Invest

Basically, the above charts say that the % share of developed economy equity markets has been declining overtime as Asian and emerging markets have been increasing.

What we are seeing is simply a deepening of the convergence trend and a rebalancing of roles which previously had been dominated by the former.

Of course there are many factors driving this, one of the principal factor would be globalization. But the point is: market dynamics, which essentially is about acting humans, has been about constant changes.

Here Comes the British Nannies

Step aside Filipina domestic helpers, here comes the British Nannies.

This looks like a reversal of roles, as emerging market elites have commenced on hiring Western household help.

From the Business Insider,

Lucky London nannies are earning insanely high salaries thanks to an influx of wealthy Russians, Chinese and Indians, who want their children to learn English from a native, according to The Times of London.

The starting pay at the elite agency Imperial Nannies is $75,000, typically including room and board in an upscale neighborhood and extraordinary perks like a car, clothes and luxury travel. One Russian family reportedly offered $200,000 to lock down a top nanny.

Of course the work isn't easy. Founder Sarajane Ambrose tells The Times:

“You’re walking into a completely different culture and environment of extraordinary wealth and different family values. Russian families require you to be on call 24 hours a day, 6 days a week. The children are always accompanied by bodyguards. There are cameras everywhere. They have a jet-setting lifestyle, which means you spend a lot of time packing and unpacking. They’re very ambitious for their children and because they dress them in designer clothes, they’re not allowed to get dirty. Russian children don’t wear Gap.”

The above dynamic has been symptomatic of what has been happening in the world today.

Yet this trend could intensify or deepen, if the West-East wealth transfer or wealth convergence persists, which will be magnified by sustained policies of inflationism by the sitting authorities of western nations.