Poker Bluffing Central Bankers Means Gold Bullmarket Should Continue

Everytime gold prices goes into hibernation, devotees of the state yell “where is inflation?!”

The “No Inflation” Propaganda

As I have been repeatedly saying, the impact of monetary inflation has always been relative. Inflation affects different economic sectors at different degrees and at different times. Politically favored sectors are the primary beneficiaries followed by the sectors that commercially interact with them, thus the gradient multiplier effect to the economy as earlier explained.

In the stock market, this phenomenon is manifested through what I call as the rotational process.

Yet today’s seeming benign conditions of consumer price inflation (CPI), which account for as symptoms of monetary inflation, does not imply of the absence of CPI inflation nor has CPI inflation solely been manifested on gold prices alone.

Nonetheless anti-gold arguments based on reductio ad absurdum and the fallacy of reading history into the future represents no less than pretexts for further inflationism and government interventions: no inflation today, thus inflate more!

These people should be reminded that economic laws are always in operation and applies equally to everyone. And that the inflation disease operates through different stages which means that CPI inflation could explode at any given time.

In reality, gold has been up for the 11^th straight year despite the ephemeral bout of deflationary episode during the crisis of 2008.

Chart from Goldmoney.com

And gold’s 11 year phenomenal record rise came amidst the US Federal Reserve’s Bubble blowing policies.

The point is, prices of gold will continue to respond to policies and that there hardly are any market trends that moves in a straight line—unless the marketplace endures an episode of extreme pressure from embedded imbalances.

As I previously wrote,

If they do, then markets must be experiencing an episode of extreme stress, symptomatic of the ventilation of acute systemic imbalances on the marketplace. They appear in the form of a blowoff phase (climax) of a bubble cycle or of hyperinflation in motion.

These extreme episodes are the black swan moments.

And the seemingly harmless CPI inflation landscape has been prompting for what seems as the crisis-political response feedback loop mechanism: where policymakers intervene in response to the market reactions and vice versa.

Political agents and their followers will naturally ‘selectively focus’ on data that supports or fits on their views, for the simple reason any admission of the CPI inflation threat will force them to reverse on their policies that would discomfit the markets and work against their interests (more below).

Until we see CPI inflation surge and or a major political backlash on central bank actions, we should expect this cycle of political interventionism/inflationism to continue.

And such actions will come under the half-truth discourse of a “no” or “little” inflation risk environment.

Gold Outperforms Obama Crony Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway

And it is also important to point out that gold has beaten the portfolio of the Obama crony and statist, Warren Buffett in spite of his repeated ranting against gold.

Whether priced in the equivalent of gold grams...

Chart from Pricedingold.com

Or based on relative performance…

Chart from the Daily Reckoning

“Unproductive” gold has clearly outperformed Mr. Buffett’s flagship Berkshire Hathaway over the past few years.

While past performance may not guarantee future outcomes, the second point is that fundamental drivers underpinning gold’s bullrun remains firmly in place.

Inflationism (expansion of monetary base in the US—see lower window—as well as in other developed economies) and the policy of negative real rates worldwide should continue to drive gold higher in spite of the current consolidation phase (chart from US Global Investors)

So, aside from highly distorted markets through various forms of market interventionism, I think this phase can be construed as a normal profit taking consolidation phase following the recent record run.

And reading price signals over the short term in an environment of heavy interventions can mislead, as acts of market interferences may have short to medium term volatile effects on the market’s price channels.

And given these highly politically influenced conditions, gold should continue to defy any statist expectations and beat the returns of Berkshire Hathaway.

Poker Bluff, Redux

It can also be observed that many of the current attributions to weak gold prices have centered on the supposed reluctance by policymakers to continue with “further stimulus”.

Such blarneys over withholding stimulus have been the dominant narrative and may have partly influenced the recent violent downside swing of September of 2011 and in March 2012 (two arrows indicated). I don’t recall of what news was ascribed to the December decline, I was on vacation.

Yet it has been a predilection, if not a habit, of the mainstream to associate current events to the market’s price actions (available bias).

We have seen this happen before through the gibberish of so called “exit strategy” in 2010. Then, I called this nonsensical propaganda as poker bluffing central bankers.

In reality in 2011, the US Federal Reserve monetized about 61% of US treasury issuance or a “whopping 8.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) on average per annum” according to Lawrence Goodman of Center for Financial Stability.

The US Federal Reserve financed most of the expenditures of the US government to compensate for the insufficiency of funding sources from private sector savings and the decline of foreign demand for US government papers. As US government expenditures continue to swell, the buyer and financier of last resort will be the US Federal Reserve.

The third point is that any constrains towards further “stimulus” would extrapolate to an outright default by the US government. Such event would ripple across the political spectrum that would adversely impact the favored banking industry and to welfare-warfare state. And US politicians and bureaucrats won’t likely resort to this option as this would put in jeopardy the survival of current political institutions or the cartelized central banking-welfare warfare state-banking system.

So policymakers will find ways and means to conduct more inflationism through overt or through stealth and possibly will come in different names.

Alternatively, this means another round of poker bluffing chatters.

Gold’s Correlation with Various Asset Classes

Lastly gold’s correlations with asset markets have been vacillating.

For most of the past years, the inflation tide has been manifested with gold’s leading the way relative to the equities as represented by the US S&P 500.

But this relationship appears on the rocks. During parts of 2011 (red ellipses), prices of gold and US equity markets parted ways. This came coincident to the end of QE 2.0 and the policy dithering by the US Federal Reserve. Then, gold prices rose as US stocks fell. This divergence was finally resolved when central bankers abroad reintroduced their versions of QE.

However, such divergence—but on an opposite path where gold has been in consolidation gold while the US S&P continues to ascend—seems to have remerged anew today.

My guess is that gold will close this anomalous divergence by heading higher.

My impression is that the gold appears to partly mirror the actions of the euro.

While the gold-Euro correlations has been loose over the past 3 years, where the upward streak of gold’s trend came amidst the sharp gyrations of the euro, recently gold seems to be moving in sympathy along with the euro’s decline.

Correlation should not be read as causation though. It would be mistake to think of gold as plainly anti-US dollar trade.

In reality, gold is the nemesis of fiat or political money, whether the US dollar, European euro, China’s yuan, Japanese yen, British pound or the Philippine Peso.

The bottom line is inflationism will continue to breath life into gold’s bullmarket, current volatility notwithstanding.

Betting against gold, says Professor Gary North, is the same as betting on governments. He who bets on governments and government money bets against 6,000 years of recorded human history.

The ‘New’ Old Idea: Central Banking Ponzi Financing Schemes

From the Wall Street Journal,

Even as the European banking crisis shows signs of easing, lenders across the Continent are engaging in a variety of maneuvers to avoid, or at least delay, coming to terms with potential problems lurking on their books.

Some banks are concocting unorthodox structures designed to improve all-important capital ratios, without raising new capital or moving unwanted assets off their balance sheets. Others are engaging in complex transactions with struggling customers to help temporarily avoid loan defaults—but possibly exposing the lenders to future problems.

Banks now have greater flexibility to pursue such tactics because of the roughly €1 trillion ($1.33 trillion) of cheap three-year loans that the European Central Bank recently handed out to at least 800 lenders. The program, known as the Long-Term Refinancing Operation, or LTRO, is widely credited with averting a possible catastrophe as banks struggled to pay off their maturing debts.

But by granting the new lease on life, the ECB program also has enabled the industry to delay its cleanup process, according to some bankers, investors and other experts.

The impact of the current inflationist policies in the Eurozone has been to:

-shield bankers from adapting reforms,

-promote the moral hazard of accounting or book keeping prestidigitation,

-become heavily dependent government’s sustained rescue efforts and

-rely on continued asset inflation by the ECB in order to keep the banking sector’s balance sheets afloat. The late neo-Keynesian Hyman Minsky would have labelled this Ponzi financing.

Here is a very relevant quote from fund manager David R. Kotok (bold emphasis mine)

“The mind, once expanded to the dimensions of larger ideas, never returns to its original size.” Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr.

Holmes, Sr. lived in the century before World War I. He preceded central banks like the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. He didn’t know there would be an International Monetary Fund. In his time, he was a thinker, author, physician, poet. His son was the famous Supreme Court Justice.

Fast forward. The new idea is to take the government-institutional official sector coalition and empower it when there is a financial crisis. This approach is at work in the Eurozone, the UK, the US, and a growing number of other venues. The new idea is to crush the private sector and to keep the official sector in the game for a prolonged period.

This “idea shift” is a distinguishing feature of the recent crisis period that started in 2007-2008. The old idea was that the official sector would intervene, rebalance the system, and then exit. The old idea was to get the private sector back in the game quickly. The old idea was to recover the official money and then let the market resume its functions of pricing and clearing and providing capital.

The old idea is dead.

So Ponzi schemes from central banking have been the “new” idea. Well, it’s really nothing new. Simply ask the incumbent governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Gideon Gono.

Today’s inflationism by developed nations has signified as a modified digital version of an ‘age old’ practice by political authorities.

Quote of the Day: Troubles of Mild inflation

The Wall Street Journal’s Notable & Quotable section presented the great Henry Hazlitt’s excerpt on the “troubles of even a mild inflation”.

Here is the complete quote from Hazlitt’s must read classic Economics in One Lesson (p.150-51) [bold emphasis mine]

So inflation turns out to be merely one more example of our central lesson. It may indeed bring benefits for a short time to favored groups, but only at the expense of others. And in the long run it brings disastrous consequences to the whole community. Even a relatively mild inflation distorts the structure of production. It leads to the overexpansion of some industries at the expense of others. This involves a misapplication and waste of capital. When the inflation collapses, or is brought to a halt, the misdirected capital investment—whether in the form of machines, factories, or office buildings—cannot yield an adequate return and loses the greater part of its value.

Nor is it possible to bring inflation to a smooth and gentle stop, and so avert a subsequent depression. It is not even possible to halt an inflation, once embarked upon, at some preconceived point, or when prices have achieved a previously-agreed-upon level; for both political and economic forces will have got out of hand. You cannot make an argument for a 25 percent advance in prices by inflation without someone’s contending that the argument is twice as good for an advance of 50 percent, and someone else’s adding that it is four times as good for an advance of 100 percent. The political pressure groups that have benefited from the inflation will insist upon its continuance.

It is impossible, moreover, to control the value of money under inflation. For, as we have seen, the causation is never a merely mechanical one. You cannot, for example, say in advance that a 100 percent increase in the quantity of money will mean a 50 percent fall in the value of the monetary unit. The value of money, as we have seen, depends upon the subjective valuations of the people who hold it. And those valuations do not depend solely on the quantity of it that each person holds. They depend also on the quality of the money.

This only goes to show why policies of inflationism has hardly been about economics, but mostly about advancing the interests of some politically favored groups. Such that once embarked upon, like narcotic addiction, inflationism becomes hard to stop as this would reverse the gains made from the early infusions.

Importantly, the consequent economic and financial system built around such policies becomes entirely dependent, not only on the sustenance, but on accelerated inflationism.

Mr. Hazlitt’s warning seems in full motion as central banks persistently ramps on their balance sheets.

chart from Cumber.com

And like narcotics addition, the long term outcome would not be pleasant.

Entrepreneurship: The Gap Between Theories and Practice

Kate Maxewell of the Kauffman Foundation writing at the Growthology blog observes of the chasm between entrepreneurial literatures and entrepreneurs in action (bold emphasis mine)

In my reading of the entrepreneurship literature I have been struck by the large gap between entrepreneurs and people who study entrepreneurship. The group of people who self select into entrepreneurship is almost entirely disjoint from the group of people who self select to study it. Such a gap exists in other fields to greater and lesser degrees. Sociologists, for instance, study phenomenon in which they are clearly participants whereas political scientists are rarely career politicians but are often actors in political systems.

But in the case of entrepreneurship the gap is cause for concern. My sense is that all too often those studying entrepreneurship don’t understand, even through exposure, the messy process of creating a business, nor, due to selection effects, are they naturally inclined to think like an entrepreneur might. At Kauffman, we have had multiple scholars say to us that they’ve found that talking to entrepreneurs is useful in their research.

This should be obvious, but it’s not. The result is research that can lack grounding, perspective and credibility. As a researcher I understand the natural impulse to keep things neatly ordered so as to create elegant papers and clear conclusions. But the fact of entrepreneurship is that it is anything but pretty or neat. More importantly, the research product resulting from such a disconnect can present a distorted view of the entrepreneurial process that may actually hinder our understanding of it. Such ill-informed research can then go on to form the basis of a policy directed at entrepreneurs – without ever having involved or understood them.

Like investing in markets, theories and practice are often detached. Yet many cling to the barnacle of academic mirages that perceives entrepreneurship as rigorous methodological science.

And as I earlier pointed out entrepreneurial traits are not acquired from books or from the academia and don’t require ‘new attitudes’. Instead they emanate from observation, knowledge, the willingness to learn from failure, and most importantly, the desire to undertake activities that profits from risk ventures through servicing or producing for the consumers.

As the great Ludwig von Mises pointed out, (bold emphasis added)

In order to succeed in business a man does not need a degree from a school of business administration. These schools train the subalterns for routine jobs. They certainly do not train entrepreneurs. An entrepreneur cannot be trained. A man becomes an entrepreneur in seizing an opportunity and filling the gap. No special education is required for such a display of keen judgment, foresight, and energy. The most successful businessmen were often uneducated when measured by the scholastic standards of the teaching profession. But they were equal to their social function of adjusting production to the most urgent demand. Because of these merits the consumers chose them for business leadership.

In short, as part of human action entrepreneurship represents more a work of art—which attempts to satisfy the preferences and value scales of consumers—than of science.

Video: "Ideas Having Sex" A Conversation with Matt Ridley and John Tierney

(hat tip Greg Ransom)

The Unraveling Global ‘Earth Hour’ Energy Industry Bubble

Like the welfare state, the supposedly politically correct environmental position represented by green energy projects are being exposed for what they truly are—delusions of grandeur.

Political support for green ‘renewable’ energy has been diminishing in Western nations.

From the Wall Street Journal, (bold emphasis mine)

The green economy strikes again, or shall we say strikes out. Oakland-based Solar Trust of America filed for bankruptcy this week, leaving its planned multibillion-dollar plant in California on ice. The company declared itself insolvent after its parent—Germany's Solar Millennium—filed for bankruptcy in December, and Solar Trust realized it wouldn't be able to pay a $1 million rent check due April 1.

Solar Millennium, in turn, had been hoping to sell a controlling stake in Solar Trust to the German company, solarhybrid, until solarhybrid also filed for bankruptcy in March. Then there's Q-Cells, another German solar company, which also filed for bankruptcy this week, sharing that fate with Solon, the Berlin-headquartered photovoltaic firm that went bust in December.

This cascade of insolvencies comes after Germany decided last year to slash the above-market prices it forces utilities to pay for renewable energy sources and to cut the subsidies that have locked German taxpayers into €100 billion in handouts to the solar industry. Even before the subsidy cut, German solar manufacturers were struggling under price pressure from China, which has responded to Western subsidies by ramping up its own production, undercutting higher-cost European and American producers in the process.

Greens in Germany and beyond are protesting that if only governments would continue soaking taxpayers to prop up solar, wind and other low-carbon favorites, these technologies would be viable. But even that is far from clear. Q-Cells and others had responded to Chinese competition by outsourcing some of their own production to Asia to cut costs. That wasn't enough to save them.

The real story is that green manufacturing, which was supposed to be the planet's salvation and Europe's new industrial base, proved to be as vulnerable to low-cost competition as many other industries. Far from creating a sustainable comparative advantage, German subsidies sparked the very rivalry now putting its home-grown industry out of business.

The Italian government appears to have taken note of these economic realities and last weekend said it would slash "excessive" subsidies for solar and wind power. Industry Minister Corrado Passera uttered the obligatory promise that Rome remains committed to generating a carbon-free, wind- and sun-powered economy, but that "we need to do so without overreliance on taxpayer resources."

So economic reality has been prevailing over mass hysteria.

Aside from gross mismanagement, mainly due to the moral hazard of political support which has been wasting taxpayers money, competition from Asia has added to the industry’s woes.

Of course, the most important factor is that there is no such thing as a free lunch, or the Santa Claus Principle, as most political zealots believe.

And considering the tremendous financial pressures to survive the welfare state, politicians see the latter as more of a priority than sustaining the economically unviable green industry, which ironically, has been contributing to the welfare state’s financial burden.

Under fiscal pressure from the ongoing debt crisis ordeal, Spain has also cut subsidies to unfeasible political pet projects.

From Bloomberg, (bold emphasis mine)

Spain halted subsidies for renewable energy projects to help curb its budget deficit and rein in power-system borrowings backed by the state that reached 24 billion euros ($31 billion) at the end of 2011.

“What is today an energy problem could become a financial problem,” Industry Minister Jose Manuel Soria said in Madrid. The government passed a decree today stopping subsidies for new wind, solar, co-generation or waste incineration plants.

The system’s debts were racked up as revenue from state- controlled prices failed to cover the cost of delivering power. Costs have swollen in the past five years because of an increase in regulated payments for the power grid, support for Spanish coal mines and subsidies for renewable energy plants…

Spain’s decision is a “first step” to rein in debts, and officials are working on a broader package of measures, Soria said. The nation isn’t planning a levy on hydropower or nuclear plants, nor will it take on power-system liabilities, he said.

The Spanish action follows Germany’s announcement last week that it would phase out support for solar panels by 2017 and the U.K.’s legal battle to reduce its subsidies for the industry.

Spain was an early mover in developing renewables plants, and support for wind energy helped Iberdrola become the world’s biggest producer of clean power, with plants in the U.S. and Brazil. The industry sustains about 110,000 Spanish jobs, according to the Renewable Energy Producers Association.

The government is wrestling with competing priorities as it struggles to convince investors it can meet a target to cut the budget deficit to 4.4 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 8 percent last year, while trying to create jobs in a country where 23 percent of workers are unemployed.

Oooooh that ought to hurt.

A relevant quote from Warren Buffett on bubbles,

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

Apparently green energy has been caught swimming naked and whose bubble seems to have been pricked.

Yet those proposing to promote green energy in the Philippines through the same political route of subsidies (whether consumer or supplier based) ought to open their eyes and see what has been happening abroad.

Any industry that cannot survive on its own [because the consumers don’t want them] and which requires political fiat to thrive extrapolates to a redistribution of resources from the economy to the political privileged groups. This is rank crony capitalism.

And crony capitalism results to huge wastages, economic inefficiency, discoordination of the economy and corruption among the many other nasty side effects. And this accounts for as the reverse Robin Hood where the poor and the middle class subsidizes the rich cronies (through taxes and inflation).

Worst is that the underlying (feel good) dogma of such environmental political religion has been founded on supposed infallibility and omniscience of computer based models.

As the great H.L. Mencken wrote,

Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.

Unintended Consequences from the Libyan Intervention

Benjamin Friedman of the Cato Institute enumerates the unintended consequences of the foreign policy of military interventions in Libya in 2011

Writes Mr. Friedman (bold emphasis added)

Advocates of both interventions underestimate coercion’s contribution to political order. Autocratic rule in these countries is partially a consequence of state weakness—the absence of strong liberal norms, government institutions, and nationalism. By helping to remove the levers of coercion in places like Libya and Syria, we risk producing anarchy—continual civil war or long-lived violent disorder. Either outcome would likely worsen suffering through widespread murder, a collapse of sanitation and health services, and stunted economic growth conducive to well-being. And the most promising paths to new of forms of unity and order in these states are illiberal: religious rule, war, or new autocrats. The humanitarian and liberal cases for these interventions are unconvincing.

Aside from Qaddafi’s fall, U.S. leaders gave three primary rationales for military intervention Libya (I repeatedly criticized them last spring). One was to show other dictators that the international community would not tolerate the violent suppression of dissenters. That reverse domino theory has obviously failed. If Qaddafi’s fate taught neighboring leaders like Bashar al-Assad anything, it is to brutally nip opposition movements in the bud before they coalesce, attract foreign arms and air support, and kill you, or, if you’re lucky, ship you off to the Hague.

The second rationale was the establishment of liberal democracy. But Libya, like Syria, lacks the traditional building blocks of liberal democracy. And history suggests that foreign military intervention impedes democratization. Whether or not it manages to hold elections, Libya seems unlikely to become a truly liberal state any time soon. As with Syria, any path to that outcome is likely to be long and bloody.

Meanwhile, Libya’s revolution has destabilized Mali. Qaddafi’s fall pushed hundreds of Tuareg tribesmen that fought on his side back to their native Mali, where they promptly reignited an old insurgency. Malian military officers, citing their government’s insufficient vigor against the rebels, mounted a coup, overthrowing democracy that had lasted over twenty years. Thus far, the military intervention in Libya has reduced the number of democracies by one.

The most widely cited rationale for helping Libya’s rebels was to save civilians from the regime. Along with many commentators, President Obama and his aides insisted that Qaddafi promised to slaughter civilians in towns that his forces were poised to retake last March. Thus, intervention saved hundreds of thousands of lives. A minor problem with this claim is that Qaddafi’s speeches actually threatened rebel fighters, not civilians, and he explicitly exempted those rebels that put down arms. More importantly, if Qaddafi intended to massacre civilians, his forces had ample opportunity to do it. They did commit war crimes, using force indiscriminately and executing and torturing prisoners. But the sort of wholesale slaughter that the Obama administration warned of did not occur—maybe because the regime’s forces lacked the organization needed for systematic slaughter.

The limited nature of the regime’s brutality does not itself invalidate humanitarian concerns. It might be worthwhile to stop even a historically mild suppression of rebellion if the cost of doing so is low enough. The trouble with the humanitarian argument for intervention in Libya is instead that the intervention and the chaos it produced may ultimately cause more suffering than the atrocities it prevented. Libya’s rebel leaders have thus far failed to resurrect central authority. Hundreds of militias police cities and occasionally battle. There are many credible reports that militias have unlawfully detained thousands of regime supporters, executed others, driven mistrusted communities from their homes, and engaged in widespread torture.

The looting of Libya’s weapons stockpiles is also likely to contribute to Libya’s misery, in part by arming the militias that obstruct central authority. The weapons depots reportedly included thousands of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), some of which may still work. It is worth noting that the widely-reported claim that Libya lost 20,000 MANPADS appears exaggerated. That figure comes from Senate testimony last spring by the head of Africa Command, who did not substantiate it (my two requests to Africa’s Command PR people for information on this claim were ignored). A State Department official recently gave the same figure before essentially admitting that we have no idea what the right figure is.

As always, the politics of interventionism has been veneered with noble “humanitarian” intentions which not only fails to meet their goals but eventually backfires.

In reality, "noble intentions" has always been used as cover to promote the interests of parties who operate 'behind the curtains' through the state.

Incredible Futuristic Eyeglasses from Google

From KurzweilAI,

In a post on Google Plus, Google X employees unveilved a prototype of the company’s “Project Glass” wrap-around augmented-reality glasses.

The glasses can superimpose information on the lenses and allow the wearer to send and receive messages via voice commands, similar to Siri.

A built-in camera can record video and take pictures.

“We’re sharing this information now because we want to start a conversation and learn from your valuable input,” the Google employees wrote. “Please follow along as we share some of our ideas and stories. We’d love to hear yours, too. What would you like to see from Project Glass?”

See video below

So eyeglasses with many digital based functionalities that can be found in today's Smartphones or the tablet. (X-Ray vision next? Lol!)

The pace of technological advancement has taken on a fantastic leap. And these have been enabled and facilitated by market forces in spite of the current spate of governments interventions.

And this is why I remain cautiously or guardedly optimistic about the future as forces of decentralization gnaws away at the foundations of 20th century centralized welfare-warfare states.

Quote of the Day: Government Driven Inequality

The regulatory and tax states have made the lower classes into pariahs from the point of view of the commercial world. They are expensive to hire and hard to fire, which makes them even more expensive to hire. The minimum wage is bad enough, but that is only the beginning. A giant machinery governs how, where, when, and under what terms they can work and enjoy fulfilling lives. Business creation is harder than ever for anyone but the highly educated elite.

When they do get jobs, the whole system is allied against their social advancement. Cash business is criminalized. Everything requires a permit. The bureaucracy rules, instead of the entrepreneur. The laws, taxes, mandates, programs — and everything else the state has done — work like a giant bed of sharp rocks in the middle of a river that punishes those who tried to get to the other side.

Inflation and the Fed’s interest-rate policy have punished the accumulation of wealth and shortened the time horizon of the lower third of the population classes. The rise of the police state and the criminalization of their lifestyle have driven them into a culturally, socially, and legally marginal existence, so that they are always one step away from entanglement with police, courts, and jail.

As government grows — and the regulatory and tax states expand — and as the prohibitions on behaviors, services, and goods grow and grow, society becomes ever less economically mobile and dynamic. The class system that is part of every society becomes a caste system of entrenched position. It becomes a society of the put-upons versus the privileged.

That’s an excellent excerpt from a book review by Jeffrey Tucker at the Laissez Faire Books.

Every choice represents a tradeoff. Growth of government equates to reduced growth for the private sector. And where choices are politicized, the end result is wealth inequality prompted for by asymmetric political exposures—political inequality. So wealth becomes concentrated to the political class and their cronies at the expense of everyone else. Yet media and the academe have been blind to these developments.

Easter’s Message: There is Hope for Freedom

There is hope for Freedom. And that’s Easter’s message according to this splendid article from Judge Andrew Napolitano…

Today it seems the power of the government continues to expand and the freedom of the individual continues to shrink. The loss of freedom comes in many forms. Sometimes it is direct and profound, as when the government stops you from doing what you formerly had the freedom to do – like choose your own doctor and your own health care insurance or choose not to have health care insurance. Sometimes it is more subtle – like when the government prints money to pay its bills and, as a result, all the money you already have loses much of its value. And sometimes the government steals freedom without you knowing it – like when federal agents write their own search warrants, authorizing themselves to learn of your computer use or medical or banking records; and they never tell you what they've done.

Freedom is the ability of every person to exercise his own free will, rather than be subject to the will of someone else. Free will is the essence of humanity, and humanity is God's greatest gift. When the government affirmatively takes away freedom, the government violates the natural law; it prevents us from having and utilizing the means to the truth. Your moral ability to exercise your free will to seek the truth is your natural right, and the government may only morally interfere with the exercise of that right when you have used fraud or force to interfere with the exercise of someone else's natural rights….

Easter is the linchpin of human existence: With it, life is worth living, no matter its cost or pain. Without it, life is meaningless, no matter its fleeting joys or triumphs. Easter has a meaning that is both incomprehensible and simple. It is incomprehensible that a human being had the freedom to rise from the dead. It is simple because that human being was and is God. Easter means that there is hope for the dead. And if there's hope for the dead, there's hope for the living.

Read the rest here

Lenten Thoughts for the Day: My Salute to Holy Week Entrepreneurs

Celebrating the Lenten tradition does not eliminate human needs and wants.

So while some entrepreneurs take these as opportunities to benefit financially, in reality, the main beneficiaries are the consuming public especially when many, if not most, people elect to spend time away from work. Life becomes a lot more convenient for the most of us.

Thus I salute entrepreneurs who elect to tradeoff leisure time to open shop when most businesses are closed. This is an example of ethical self-interest which extrapolates into public good.

In the words of investing guru Doug Casey

It's in your selfish best interest to provide the maximum amount of value to the maximum number of people

And the provision of public service through trade is, in effect, loving and servicing one's neighbors, clues of which can be found in the Bible.

From Galatians 5:13-14

For you were called to freedom, brothers. Only do not use your freedom as an opportunity for the flesh, but through love serve one another. For the whole law is fulfilled in one word: “You shall love your neighbor as yourself.”

Chart of the Day: The Inflation Cycle

Today’s crisis-political response feedback loop mechanism incisively captured by this diagram from Zero Hedge.

The reason for this as resoundingly pointed out by Professor Ludwig von Mises in his magnum opus the Human Action, more than half a century ago,

The hindrance that the monetary or circulation credit theory had to overcome was not merely theoretical error but also political bias. Public opinion is prone to see in interest nothing but a merely institutional obstacle to the expansion of production. It does not realize that the discount of future goods as against present goods is a necessary and eternal category of human action and cannot be abolished by bank manipulation. In the eyes of cranks and demagogues, interest is a product of the sinister machinations of rugged exploiters. The age-old disapprobation of interest has been fully revived by modern interventionism. It clings to the dogma that it is one of the foremost duties of good government to lower the rate of interest as far as possible or to abolish it altogether. All present-day governments are fanatically committed to an easy money policy.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Why Property Rights is NOT a Public Policy Problem

I know most people are on a vacation this Passover week or the culmination of the Lenten Season. But for as long as the computer is within my handle, I’d continue to keep sharing ideas of liberty.

Happy Easter in advance.

Below is a superb essay by Professor David Henderson on how private property resolves our societal problems.

Should restaurants allow smoking or not? Should schools teach evolution or intelligent design or both? Should insurance companies cover contraception? Should I be able to take off my shoes in your living room?

You might think that that last question doesn't belong with the first three. After all, the first three questions are momentous ones about "public policy." The last one is only about the rules you have for my behavior in your living room—a "private-policy" question. And your answer to that question will depend on how you want to use your property.

But think about what you just read: Your answer to whether I should be able to remove my shoes in your living room depends on how youwant to use your property. What is implicit here, but obvious to all, is that the choice is yours. I have no say in the matter. That doesn't mean you won't take account of my thoughts and feelings. You will. Let's assume that you find it distasteful for me to take off my shoes, but that you like my company. Let's further assume that telling me that I can't get comfortable by taking off my shoes will mean that I won't want to visit you. Then you will trade off your distaste at having me shoeless with the pleasure you take from my company. If one outweighs the other, in your subjective estimation, then you'll choose accordingly.

Notice how property rights solve the problem. It's your living room and so you get to choose. How your living room gets used is not a public-policy problem.

Read the rest here

As a final point, the capital markets, which includes stock markets, are rooted on property rights. Take away property rights, capital and stock markets ceases to exist.

Quote of the Day: Blaming Capitalism, Redux

But blaming capitalism for the world’s economic ills is like blaming the guy who invented gunpowder for nuclear holocaust. Sure, you could make an argument that the two are loosely related, but the real blame lies with the system itself– a system which awards perverse power and control to an elite few.

As I’ve often written, future historians will look back on our time with utter incredulity and wonder how we could allow such a system to take over… to allow a tiny handful of men to control the lives and livelihoods of billions of people.

Certainly, injustice in the world is great. There are a lot of people who are suffering, people who have had their lives turned upside down from state-sponsored corporate welfare.

Holding out for the government to fix it, though, is like waiting for a thief to give your stuff back. It’s not going to happen. They’re instrumental in perpetuating the problem.

That’s from the Mr. Simon Black of the sovereignman.com commenting on the fallacies of the Occupy Movement.

My earlier quote of the day on blaming capitalism here.

Let me add that not only governments “perpetuate” the problem, they are THE problem. If “a tiny handful of men to control the lives and livelihoods of billions of people”, then governments represent as instruments of control by the political class in complicity with vested interest groups who profit from political rents or popularly known as “state-sponsored corporate welfare”.

These are the people who disdain the free market, capitalism or economic freedom for the simple reason of aversion to competition, which stems from valid and real concerns of the erosion of their current usufruct privileges, which they enjoy out of government protection and redistribution. Take away government’s aegis, then these parasites will be vanquished.

And their tentacles of venal influence for the public to continue with their servitude extends vastly through the incumbent establishment institutions—media, academia, Wall Street and many others, covering all the aspects of our lives.

So the analogy of “waiting for a thief to give your stuff back” is correct. These politically entrenched groups will fight to preserve their unsustainable privileges until the point of self-destruction. The chickens will come home to roost.

Occupational Licensing: Tokyo Eases Restrictions on Blowfish Culinary Licenses

Japan’s exotic delicacy, the Porcupine fish or commonly known as the blowfish can be fatal to people. The preparation of which requires skilled expertise.

Yet Tokyo’s city government seeks to promote competition by reducing regulations that once protected experts.

From the Reuters,

With a scoop of a net Tokyo chef Naohito Hashimoto selects a poisonous blowfish, considered a delicacy in Japan, and with a few deft strokes of his gleaming knife starts the delicate process of preparing it for a customer.

In moments, Hashimoto has separated the edible parts of the fish from organs filled with a poison more deadly than cyanide.

For more than six decades, dicing blowfish in Tokyo has been the preserve of a small band of strictly regulated and licensed chefs, usually in exclusive restaurants.

But new laws coming into effect from October are opening the lucrative trade to restaurants without a license, making chefs like Hashimoto see red.

"We have spent time and money in order to obtain and use the blowfish license, but with these new rules anybody can handle blowfish even without a license," said Hashimoto, a blowfish chef for some 30 years.

Occupational licensing is a form of protectionism which politicizes the supply of labor through permissions, licenses, restrictions, and cartelization of jobs that has been meant to raise incomes for the people in these fields.

Yet the effects of occupational licensing has done little to benefit the consumers.

In a 2008 interview, Professor Morris Kleiner, labor economics and public policy professor at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute and Carlson School of Management, said,

Occupational licensing has either no impact or even a negative impact on the quality of services provided to customers by members of the regulated occupation. Additionally, as occupations become licensed, members of regulated occupations see their earnings go up.

Well I guess Mr. Kleiner’s observation has been validated from Japan’s blowfish culinary experience.

Again from the same Reuters article,

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says city laws covering the serving of blowfish should be changed to reflect changing times and hope that relaxing the rules will cut prices and bring Tokyo in line with the rest of the nation.

"Outside of Tokyo, the regulations for blowfish are even more relaxed and yet there are hardly any poison-related accidents," said Hironobu Kondo, an official at the city's Food Control Department.

"There is the hope that the number of restaurants with unlicensed chefs serving blowfish will rise, and that blowfish as an ingredient will be used not only for traditional Japanese foods but also others such as Chinese and Western foods."

My guess is that many of the today's social problems may partly involve job protectionism, but has been overlooked by contemporaneous analysis. [I will deal with this in the future]

Yet I hope that more of such marginal acts to liberalize the economy and induce competition will become a common practice in Japan and elsewhere around the globe.

China Deepens Liberalization of Capital Markets

I have pointed out that the ongoing tensions in the political spectrum in China may have been ideologically based.

Entrepreneurs in China may have grown enough political clout enough to challenge to the degenerative command and control political structure of the old China order.

And it seems as if the forces of decentralization seem to be getting the upper hand, as China undertakes further liberalization of their capital markets.

From the Bloomberg,

China accelerated the opening of its capital markets by more than doubling the amount foreigners can invest in stocks, bonds and bank deposits as the government shifts its growth model to domestic consumption from exports.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission increased the quotas for qualified foreign institutional investors to $80 billion from $30 billion, according to a statement on its website yesterday. Offshore investors will also be allowed to pump an extra 50 billion yuan ($7.95 billion) of local currency into the country, up from 20 billion yuan

China, the world’s second-biggest economy, has pledged this year to free up control of the yuan and liberalize interest rates as the government deepens reforms to revive growth and offset slowing exports and a cooling housing market. China needs to rely more on markets and the private sector as its export- oriented model isn’t sustainable, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in February.

Here’s more

The regulator had granted a total of $24.6 billion in quotas to 129 overseas companies since the program first started in 2003 through the end of March. About 75 percent of assets were invested in Chinese stocks, with the rest in bonds and deposits, according to the statement.

The CSRC accelerated the program last month, granting a record $2.1 billion of quotas to 15 companies. It was more than the $1.9 billion in 2011 as a whole.

“The QFII program enhances our experience of monitoring and regulating cross-board investment and capital flows,” the CSRC said in the statement. “It is a positive experiment to further open up the market and achieve the yuan convertibility under the capital account.”

Premier Wen Jiabao is seeking to attract international investment as economic growth cools, prompting the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index to slump 24 percent in the past year. The country posted its largest trade deficit since at least 1989 in February as Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil damped exports.

China needs to break a banking “monopoly” of a few big lenders that makes easy profits, Wen told private company executives in Fujian province yesterday, as cited by China National Radio.

Breaking up a privileged banking monopoly essentially transfers resources to the productive sector which should serve China well, as well as, serves as welcome and enriching news for Asia and the rest of the world.

And by liberalization of their capital markets, China will become more integrated with the world, and thus diffusing risks of brinkmanship geopolitics, or the risks of military confrontations.

Again such development adds evidence to my theory that the Spratlys tensions may have just been about political leverage or about helping promote indirectly the US arms sales.

Nevertheless, China has yet to face the harmful unintended consequences of her past and present Keynesian bubble policies.

However the long term is key, or far more important. The kind of reforms matters most.

And reforms that deepen economic freedom or laissez faire capitalism (away from state capitalism) in China and the attendant development of capital markets could likely mean that the rest of Asia may follow suit. The implication is that regional and domestic capital will less likely be recycled to the West, and instead would find more productive use at home or a ‘home bias’ for Asian investors.

Moreover, the crumbling welfare states of the west would mean more capital flows into the Asia as savings seek refuge from sustained policies of inflationism.

All these should accentuate my wealth convergence theory.

Of course, China’s strategy to liberalize her capital markets may also represent a move to challenge the US dollar standard.

Recently BRICs officials slammed US and Euro’s monetary “tsunami” policies and in the process has been contemplating to put up their version of a World Bank—joint development bank.

While these gripes have been valid, the latter’s action has little substance. What the other ex-China BRICs should to do is to mimic China’s path to rapidly liberalize their economy and their capital markets.

That’s because societal integration functions as a natural force when commercial activities or economic freedom intensifies.

As the great Ludwig von Mises wrote about the social effects of the division of labor,

Social cooperation means the division of labor.

The various members, the various individuals, in a society do not live their own lives without any reference or connection with other individuals. Thanks to the division of labor, we are connected with others by working for them and by receiving and consuming what others have produced for us. As a result, we have an exchange economy which consists in the cooperation of many individuals. Everybody produces, not only for himself alone, but for other people in the expectation that these other people will produce for him. This system requires acts of exchange.

The peaceful cooperation, the peaceful achievements of men, are effected on the market. Cooperation necessarily means that people are exchanging services and goods, the products of services. These exchanges bring about the market. The market is precisely the freedom of people to produce, to consume, to determine what has to be produced, in whatever quantity, in whatever quality, and to whomever these products are to go. Such a free system without a market is impossible; such a free system is the market.

Picture of the Day: Capitalism

This picture practically captures the tangible benefits of capitalism to mankind…

…technology convergence, innovation, productivity impelled deflation et.al. Many gadgets of the past have now been bundled into one that serves to the convenience of the consumers.

Simply incredible.

Of course, the picture does not include the intangible benefits—the better quality of life from the services these gizmos have been providing us.

Professor Russ Roberts rightly calls this picture “worth a thousand words”. Indeed

Yet I am fortunate to have witnessed such progression in my lifetime.

And I further believe that the coming generations will see even more of this, in spite of the intense challenges posed by the archaic welfare based industrial age political system.

Video: Economics is Fun: Why Economics Isn't (Natural) Science

Dr Madsen Pirie of Adam Smith Institute does a great job in explaining vivaciously why economics isn't (natural) science, which conventional practitioners try to mold them into--through statistical or econometric models.

Here's a good quote [1:07]

When an economist tries to simplify it by leaving out stuff by, so that a small model can be created you have assumed away the real world.

(hat tip Greg Ransom)



Economics is the youngest of all sciences to quote the great Ludwig von Mises.

And it is important to note that the science of economics represents a subdiscipline to the science of human action. Again Professor Mises in his magnum opus Human Action,

The scope of praxeology is the explication of the category of human action. All that is needed for the deduction of all praxeological theorems is knowledge of the essence of human action. It is a knowledge that is our own because we are men; no being of human descent that pathological conditions have not reduced to a merely vegetative existence lacks it. No special experience is needed in order to comprehend these theorems, and no experience, however rich, could disclose them to a being who did not know a priori what human action is. The only way to a cognition of these theorems is logical analysis of our inherent knowledge of the category of action. We must bethink ourselves and reflect upon the structure of human action. Like logic and mathematics, praxeological knowledge is in us; it does not come from without.

All the concepts and theorems of praxeology are implied in the category of human action. The first task is to extract and to deduce them, to expound their implications and to define the universal conditions of acting as such.

And the difference between the science of human action from natural science in the words of Mises (emphasis added)

WHAT differentiates the realm of the natural sciences from that of the sciences of human action is the categorical system resorted to in each in interpreting phenomena and constructing theories. The natural sciences do not know anything about final causes; inquiry and theorizing are entirely guided by the category of causality. The field of the sciences of human action is the orbit of purpose and of conscious aiming at ends; it is teleological.

Both categories were resorted to by primitive man and are resorted to today by everybody in daily thinking and acting. The most simple skills and techniques imply knowledge gathered by rudimentary research into causality. Where people did not know how to seek the relation of cause and effect, they looked for a teleological interpretation.

Another US Government Sponsored ‘Earth Hour’ Company Goes Bust

First, mainstream environmental politics tell us of the need to become energy independent

Next, mainstream environmental politics tell us that people have been mainly responsible for the deterioration of the environment [based on computer models].

Third environmental politics tell us of the need to shift to green energy, by suggesting that prices of oil should rise to facilitate such a shift.

I may add this really serves as cover to promote the interest as well as to ensure the survival of welfare state nations, whom has depended on the sustainment of lofty oil prices to bribe their citizenry for them to stay in power.

Overall, mainstream environmental politics has been about promoting the privileges of a few entrenched vested interest groups through political privileges of social control by immersing the public with indoctrination based on tomfoolery and propaganda.

So how has the business of green energy fared?

Here is Zero Hedge, (bold emphasis mine)

Solyndra was just the appetizer. Earlier today, in what will come as a surprise only to members of the administration, the company which proudly held the rights to the world's largest solar power project, the hilariously named Solar Trust of America ("STA"), filed for bankruptcy. And while one could say that the company's epic collapse is more a function of alternative energy politics in Germany, where its 70% parent Solar Millennium AG filed for bankruptcy last December, what is relevant is that last April STA was the proud recipient of a $2.1 billion conditional loan from the Department of Energy, incidentally the second largest loan ever handed out by the DOE's Stephen Chu. That amount was supposed to fund the expansion of the company's 1000 MW Blythe Solar Power Project in Riverside, California. From the funding press release, "This project construction is expected to create over 1,000 direct jobs in Southern California, 7,500 indirect jobs in related industries throughout the United States, and more than 200 long-term operational jobs at the facility itself. It will play a key role in stimulating the American economy,”said Uwe T. Schmidt, Chairman and CEO of Solar Trust of America and Executive Chairman of project development subsidiary Solar Millennium, LLC." Instead, what Solar Trust will do is create lots of billable hours for bankruptcy attorneys (at $1,000/hour), and a good old equity extraction for the $22 million DIP lender, which just happens to be NextEra Energy Resources, LLC, another "alternative energy" company which last yearreceived a $935 million loan courtesy of the very same (and now $2.1 billion poorer) Department of Energy, which is also a subsidiary of public NextEra Energy (NEE), in the process ultimately resulting in yet another transfer of taxpayer cash to NEE's private shareholders.

As Bloomberg notes: "The company joins Energy Conversion Devices Inc., a U.S. solar manufacturer that suspended production last year; LSP Energy LP, the owner of a natural-gas-fired power plant in Mississippi; Ener1 Inc., maker of lithium-ion batteries for plug-in electric cars; solar-panel maker Solyndra LLC; and energy storage company Beacon Power Corp. (BCONQ) in bankruptcy."

And so central planning fails again, and again, and again, and again. But it sure will be better with the centrally planned monetary (and in the absence of a working Congress - also fiscal) policy. Because this time it really will be different.

US taxpayer's money down the drain again.

Politics based on social control, this time applied to environmentalism, fits very much into Ben Franklin/Albert Einstein’s description of insanity —doing the same thing over and over and expecting it to come out different. [The insanity quote may have been misattributed to Mr. Franklin and to Mr. Einstein but the essence of the message holds. ]

The unsustainable political picking of winners and losers will work only for as long as the public remains dense to reality, and for as long there remains real savings from the private sector from which would be forcibly diverted into such wasteful political enterprises.

As the great Professor Ludwig von Mises warned,

An essential point in the social philosophy of interventionism is the existence of an inexhaustible fund which can be squeezed forever. The whole system of interventionism collapses when this fountain is drained off: The Santa Claus principle liquidates itself.

Quote of the Day: Anatomy of a Power Grab

The pathology of a government power grab is not hard to discern. The state creates the conditions for crisis. Crisis strikes. Politicians seize extraordinary powers. Crisis passes. Left behind is a popular perception that complete annihilation was averted due to government genius. Politicians are permitted to expand their power.

That’s an excellent excerpt from columnist Mary Anastasia O’Grady at the Wall Street Journal who tersely narrates of the anatomy of political power grab by governments.

In using Argentina as example, Ms. O’Grady exposes the Kirchner administration use of the above stratagem to extend political control of their monetary policies through the central bank.

Yet this is not limited to Argentina but applies to the politics of interventionism everywhere.

Chart of the Day: Terrorist Identification Chart

Looks like everyone can be branded a terrorist (hat tip Karen De Coster at the Lew Rockwell Blog)