Thursday, October 11, 2012

Has the Swedish Recovery from the Banking Crisis of the 90s been due to Devaluation?

Here is another claim by an advocate of inflationism: Devaluation kickstarted the recovery of the Swedish economy from the banking crisis of 1990s.

I will quote mainstream references as rejoinder, so as to assume neutrality.

From Wikipedia.org (bold emphasis mine)   
In the 1980s, a real estate and financial bubble formed, driven by a rapid increase in lending. A restructuring of the tax system, in order to emphasize low inflation combined with an international economic slowdown in the early 1990s, caused the bubble to burst. Between 1990 and 1993 GDP went down by 5% and unemployment skyrocketed, causing the worst economic crisis in Sweden since the 1930s. According to an analysis by George Berglund published in Computer Sweden in 1992, the investment level decreased drastically for information technology and computing equipment, except in the financial and banking sector, the part of the industry that created the crisis. The investment levels for IT and computers were restored as early as 1993. In 1992 there was a run on the currency, the central bank briefly jacking up interest to 500% in an unsuccessful effort to defend the currency's fixed exchange rate. Total employment fell by almost 10% during the crisis.

A real estate boom ended in a bust. The government took over nearly a quarter of banking assets at a cost of about 4% of the nation's GDP. This was known colloquially as the "Stockholm Solution". The United States Federal Reserve remarked in 2007, that "In the early 1970s, Sweden had one of the highest income levels in Europe; today, its lead has all but disappeared... So, even well-managed financial crises don't really have a happy ending."

The welfare system that had been growing rapidly since the 1970s could not be sustained with a falling GDP, lower employment and larger welfare payments. In 1994 the government budget deficit exceeded 15% of GDP. The response of the government was to cut spending and institute a multitude of reforms to improve Sweden's competitiveness. When the international economic outlook improved combined with a rapid growth in the IT sector, which Sweden was well positioned to capitalize on, the country was able to emerge from the crisis.

The crisis of the 1990s was by some viewed as the end of the much buzzed welfare model called "Svenska modellen", literally "The Swedish Model", as it proved that governmental spending at the levels previously experienced in Sweden was not long term sustainable in a global open economy. Much of the Swedish Model's acclaimed advantages actually had to be viewed as a result of the post WWII special situation, which left Sweden untouched when competitors' economies were comparatively weak.
The allegation of devaluation as having jumpstarted the recovery seems materially misplaced.

Instead, the devaluation looks to be part of the bubble forming process which ultimately ended with a “run” on the currency.

While “restructuring of taxes” served as the likely catalyst for the ensuing bust, I think this has been more about central bank tightening (whom jacked up rates up to 500%). 

image

While the Swedish government did intervene to rescue the banking system, overall, the general economic recovery has been mostly the result of the much maligned "AUSTERITY" defined here as cuts in government spending as shown by Sweden’s material decline in government’s debt to GDP, as well as, Sweden’s government’s budget which turned into surpluses, the restoration of trade COMPETITIVENESS and the DECLINE of Sweden’s “Svenska modellen” welfare state. [charts from tradingeconomics.com]

More anecdotal evidence from Johnny Munkhammar, a member of the Moderate Party of the Swedish Parliament, and the author of "The Guide to Reform" (Timbro/IEA 2007)at the Wall Street Journal in January 26, 2012 [bold added] 
But Socialism was fashionable in post-War Europe and Sweden was not immune. The 1970s were a decade of radical government intervention in society and in markets, during which Sweden doubled its overall tax burden, socialized a slew of industries, re-regulated its markets, expanded its public systems, and shuttered its borders. In 1970, Sweden had the world's fourth-highest GDP per capita. By 1990, it had fallen 13 positions. In those 20 years, real wages in Sweden increased by only one percentage point.

Remnants of its earlier success remained, and the idea of following "the Swedish model" had already caught hold around the world. Fine, except the roots of this success were confused with Stockholm's more recent big-government policies, which in fact were destroying the country's enviable prosperity. This confusion also played into domestic debates, stalling reform for too long.

By the late 1980s, though, Sweden had started de-regulating its markets once again, decreased its marginal tax rates, and opted for a sound-money, low-inflation policy. In the early 1990s, the pace quickened, and most markets except for labor and housing were liberalized. The state sold its shares in a number of companies, granted independence to its central bank, and introduced school vouchers that improved choice and competition in education. Stockholm slashed public pensions and introduced private retirement schemes, keeping the system demographically sustainable.

These decisive economic liberalizations, and not socialism, are what laid the foundations for Sweden's success over the last 15 years. After the reforms of the early 1990s, Swedes' real wages increased by roughly 35% in a decade. And, as businesses have become more productive and people's incomes have risen, living standards improved. More people eat at restaurants now, more people travel abroad, more people buy DVDs and new cars. More people get more.
It’s funny or bizarre to see political zealots mistake symptoms of the diseases for medical treatment (which in reality are snake oil nostrums).

1 comment:

Hans said...

http://docstalk.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-swedish-model-government-austerity.html