Thursday, May 30, 2013

China Bubble: Diminishing Returns of Credit

Here is an example why asset bubbles are being blown in China.

From the Bloomberg:
China’s economy is proving less responsive to credit, escalating pressure on Premier Li Keqiang to strengthen the role of private enterprise.

The government’s broadest measure of credit rose 58 percent to a record 6.16 trillion yuan ($1 trillion) in January-to-March, when gross domestic product gained 7.7 percent, compared with 8.1 percent a year earlier. Each $1 in credit firepower added the equivalent of 17 cents in GDP, down from 29 cents last year and 83 cents in 2007, when global money markets began to freeze, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The diminishing returns to lending heighten focus on the need for what the International Monetary Fund said yesterday are “decisive” policy changes in the world’s second-largest economy. Without a refocus away from state-approved projects, Li and President Xi Jinping risk overseeing both a further slowdown in growth and an increase in non-performing loans.

The article reveals of the Chinese government’s entrenched adaption of Keynesian policies which views credit as an indispensable macro tool used to attain economic growth. 
The Zero Hedge has great on charts representing the above dynamics:

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China’s credit boom…
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…amidst languishing economic growth

Policymakers hardly distinguish on the character of credit. For them, credit growth of any kind presupposes increased consumption or “aggregate demand”.

And the above report only validates my suspicion that the Chinese government’s covert stimulus has been channeled via state owned enterprises (SOE) since late last year.

In order to avoid controversies from the peering eyes of world, the Chinese government uses the SOEs, which remains a substantial force in her economy, as principal conduits for the transmission of social policies

Yet as explained yesterday much of the credit expansion has only been channeled into yield chasing speculations which has been evident by the ballooning property bubbles and massive expansion of the shadow banking system. 

The existence of ghost communities (towns or shopping malls) are manifestations of wanton misallocation of resources or capital wastage, thus the clueless media and policymakers scratch on their heads on the so-called ‘diminishing returns’ from credit in producing “economic growth”. 

In contrast to the mainstream impression and as shown above, inflationist and interventionist policies reduce aggregate demand over the long run. Thus, macro tools will hardly solve on real micro problems.

To add, the 58% jump in credit growth in the first quarter only means that much of the 7.7% “growth” represents a statistical artifice or a mirage.

The call to focus on private enterprises via economic freedom should signify a policy imperative. This means that the Chinese political economy should further decentralize and that the Chinese government must relinquish political power to the marketplace. This also suggest that people should be allowed to keep their savings from the stealth predations enabled by financial repression policies (e.g. negative interest rates)

But it is doubtful if officials will sacrifice political privileges.

Nonetheless real "private enterprise" based reforms will constitute real growth over the longer term.

Unfortunately there will be short to medium term consequences from all the intensive accumulation of malinvestments. 

Where every action has an attendant consequence, markets must be allowed to clear these imbalances. Otherwise these will continue to mount, until it snaps with greater intensity.

Bottom line: In a recast of Newton's 3rd law: for every bubble boom, there will be a corresponding bubble bust.


Ex-Fed Chair Paul Volcker on Bernanke Policies: Good luck in that

The Bloomberg has a noteworthy quote on Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker's recent speech dealing with the policies of the incumbent Fed chief Ben Bernanke which the former thinks that the FED may “fall short” in achieving their goals (bold mine)
The Federal Reserve, any central bank, should not be asked to do too much to undertake responsibilities that it cannot responsibly meet with its appropriately limited powers,” Volcker said. He said a central bank’s basic responsibility is for a “stable currency.”

“Credibility is an enormous asset,” Volcker said. “Once earned, it must not be frittered away by yielding to the notion that a little inflation right now is a good a thing, a good thing to release animal spirits and to pep up investment.”

“The implicit assumption behind that siren call must be that the inflation rate can be manipulated to reach economic objectives,” according to Volcker. “Up today, maybe a little more tomorrow and then pulled back on command. Good luck in that. All experience demonstrates that inflation, when fairly and deliberately started, is hard to control and reverse.”
When price inflation rears its ugly head, it will be sudden, swift and dramatic.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Richard Ebeling: The Case For Freedom and Free markets in the writings of Ludwig von Mises, F.A. Hayek and Ayn Rand

Dr. Richard Ebeling, American libertarian author, former president of the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE) and professor of economics, in a recent speech dealt with the works of Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich von Hayek and Ayn Rand as providing for the intellectual and ethical foundations for the case of Freedom and Free markets.  

From Dr. Ebeling at the Northwood University Blog (bold mine)
Three names are widely associated with the cause of human freedom and economic liberty in the 20thcentury: Friedrich A. Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, and Ayn Rand. Indeed, it can be argued that Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom (1944) and The Constitution of Liberty (1960), Mises, Socialism ((1936) Human Action(1949), and Rand’s The Fountainhead (1943) and Atlas Shrugged (1957) did more to turn the intellectual tide of opinion away from collectivism in the second half of the twentieth century than any other works that reached out to the informed layman and general public.

Now, in the second decade of the 21st century their enduring influence is seen by the continuing high sales of their books, and the frequency with which all three are referred to in the media and the popular press in the face of the current economic crisis and the concerns about the revival of dangerous statist trends in the United States and other parts of the world.

The Influence of Mises, Hayek, and Rand

In Hayek’s case, his influence has reached inside academia, that bastion of the social engineering mentality in which too many professors, especially in the social sciences, still dream wistfully about society being remade in their own images of “social justice” and political correctness – regardless of the expense in terms of people’s personal and economic liberty.

Hayek’s message of intellectual humility – that there is more to the complexities of the world than any government planning or intervening mind can ever master – has forced some in that academic arena to take seriously the possibility that there may be “limits” to what political paternalism can achieve without undermining the essential institutional foundations of a free and prosperous society.

Mises continues to be recognized as the most original and influential member of the Austrian School of Economics during the greater part of the 20th century. Mises stands out as that unique and original thinker who proved why socialist planning cannot work, that government intervention breeds inescapable distortions and imbalances throughout the market, and how central bank manipulation of money and interest rates sets in motion the booms and busts of the business cycle. The current recession has brought new attention to the Austrian theory of money and economic fluctuations, which was first formulated by Mises in the early decades of the 20th century.

While the academe of philosophers is still not willing to give Ayn Rand the respect and serious attention that others believe she rightly deserves, it is nonetheless true that her novels and non-fiction writings, especially The Virtue of Selfishness (1964) and Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal (1966), continue to capture the interest and imagination of a growing number of students in the halls of higher education in the United States. In other words, her ideas continue to reach out to that potential generation of “new intellectuals” that Rand hoped would emerge to offer a principled and morally grounded defense of individualism and capitalism.

The Common Historical Contexts of Their Time

Hayek, Mises and Rand each made their case for freedom and the political order that accompanies it in their own way. While Mises was born in 1881 and, therefore, was 18 years older than Hayek (who was born in 1899) and nearly a quarter of a century older that Rand (who was born in 1905), there were a number of historical experiences they shared in common, and which clearly helped shape their ideas.

First, they came from a Europe that was deeply shaken by the catastrophic destruction and consequences of the First World War. Both Mises and Hayek saw the horrors of combat and the trauma of military defeat while serving in the Austro-Hungarian Army, as well as experiencing the economic hardships and the threat of socialist revolution in postwar Vienna. Rand lived through the Russian Revolution and Civil War, which ended with the triumph of Lenin’s Bolsheviks and the imposition of a brutal and murderous communist regime; she also experienced “socialism-in-practice” as a student at the University of Petrograd (later Leningrad, now St Petersburg) as the new Marxist order was being imposed on Russian society.

Second, they also experienced the harsh realities of hyperinflation. Rand witnessed the Bolshevik’s intentional destruction of the Russian currency during the Russian Civil War and Lenin’s system of War Communism, which was designed as a conscious attempt to bring about the abolition of the market economy and capitalist “wage-slavery.” In postwar Germany and Austria, Mises and Hayek watched the new socialist-leaning governments in Berlin and Vienna turn the handle of the monetary printing press to fund the welfare statist and interventionist expenditures for instituting their collectivist dreams. In the process, the middle classes of Germany and Austria were decimated and the social fabric of German and Austrian society were radically undermined.

Third, Rand was fortunate enough to escape the living hell of socialism-in-practice in Soviet Russia by being able to come to America in the mid-1920s. But from her new vantage point, she was able to observe the rise and impact of “American-style” collectivism, during the Great Depression and the coming of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal in the 1930s. In Europe, Mises and Hayek watched the rise of fascism in Italy in the 1920s and then the triumph of Hitler and National Socialism in Germany in 1933, the same year that FDR’s New Deal was implemented in the United States. For both Mises and Hayek, the Nazi variation on the collectivist theme not only showed it to be one of the most deadly forms that socialism could take on. It represented, as well, a dark and dangerous “revolt against reason” with the Nazi’s call to the superiority of blood and force over the human mind and rational argumentation.

Their Common Premises on Collectivism and the Free Society

What were among the common premises that Mises, Hayek and Rand shared in the context of the statist reality in which they had lived? Firstly, I would suggest that it clarified conceptual errors and political threats resulting from philosophical and political collectivism. The “nations,” “races,” “peoples” to which the totalitarian collectivists appealed resulted in Mises, Hayek and Rand reminding their readers that these do not exist separate or independent from the individual human beings who make up the membership of these short-hand terms for claimed human associations.  Anything to be understood about such “collectives” of peoples can only realistically and logically begin with an analysis of and an understanding into the nature of the individual human being, and the ideas he may hold about his relationships to others in society.

Furthermore, political collectivism was a dangerous tool in the hands of the ideological demagogues who used the notions of the “people’s will,” or the “nation’s purposes,” or the “society’s needs,” or the “race’s interests,” to assert their claim to a higher insight that justified the right for those with this “special intuitive gift” to guide and rule over others.

Secondly, all three rejected positivism’s denial of the human mind as something real, and as source for knowledge about man and his actions. Mises and Rand, especially, emphasized the importance of man’s use of his reasoning ability to understand and master the world in which he lived, and the importance of reasoned reflection for conceiving rational rules and institutions for a peaceful and prosperous society of free men.  Mises and Rand considered the entire political trend of the 20thcentury to be in the direction of a “revolt against reason.”

Even Hayek, who is sometimes classified as an “anti-rationalist” due to his emphasis on the limits of human reason for designing or intentionally constructing the institutions of society, should also be classified as an advocate of man’s proper use of his reasoning powers when reflecting on man and society. While the phrasing of his arguments sometimes created this confusion, in various places Hayek went out of his way to insist that he was never challenging the centrality of man’s reasoning and rational faculty. Rather, he was reminding central planners and social engineers that one of the important uses of man’s reasoning ability is to understand the limits of what man can and cannot know or hope to do in terms of trying to remake society according to some preconceived design.

Thirdly, all three firmly believed that there was no societal arrangement conceivable for free men and human betterment other than free market capitalism. Only a private property order that respects and protects the right of the individual to his life, liberty, and honestly acquired possessions give people control over their own lives. Only the voluntary associative arrangements of the marketplace minimize the use of force in human relationships. Only the market economy allows each individual the institutional means of being free from the power of the government and its historical patterns of plunder and abuse. And only the market economy gives each individual the latitude to live for himself and use his knowledge and abilities to further his own ends as he best sees fit.

And, finally, Mises, Hayek, and Rand all emphasized the importance of the intellectuals in society in influencing the tone and direction of political, economic, and social ideas and trends. These “second-hand” thinkers of ideas were the driving force behind the emerging and then triumphing collectivist ideas of the 19th and 20th centuries. They were the molders of public opinion who have served as the propagandizers and rationalizers for the concentration of political power and the enslavement and deaths of hundreds of millions of people – people who were indoctrinated about the need for their selfless obedience and sacrifice to those in political power for a “greater good” in the name of some faraway utopia.

The Consequentialist Rationale for Freedom

But where they differed was on the philosophical justification for the free society and the rights of individuals within the social order. Both Mises and Hayek were what today might go under the term “rule utilitarians.” Any action, policy or institution must be evaluated and judged on the basis of its “positive” or “negative” consequences for the achievement of human ends.

However, the benchmark for such evaluation and judgment is not the immediate “positive” or “negative” effects from any action or policy. It must, instead, be placed into a longer-run context of theoretical insight and historical experience to determine whether or not the policy or action and its effects are consistent with the sustainability of the overall institutional order that is judged to be most effective in furthering the long-run possible goals and purposes of the members of society, as a whole.

Thus, the rule utilitarian is concerned with the “moral hazard” arising from an action or policy implemented. That is, will it create “perverse incentives” that results in members of society acting in ways inconsistent with the long-run betterment of their circumstances?

Welfare payments may not only involve a transfer of wealth from the productive “Peters” in society to the unproductive “Pauls.” It may also reduce the motives of the productive members of society to work, save and invest as much as they had or might, due to the disincentive created by the higher taxes to pay for the redistribution. At the same time, such wealth transfers may generate an “entitlement” mentality of having a right to income and wealth without working honestly to earn it. Thus, the “work ethic” is weakened, and a growing number in society may become welfare dependents living off the honest labor of others through the paternalistic transfer hands of the State.

The net effect possibly is to make the society poorer than it otherwise might have been, and therefore making everyone potentially worse off in terms of the longer-run consequences of such policies.
Read the rest here.

I would add the great Murray Rothbard, but contra rule utilitarians Mr. Rothbard was a champion of natural rights based libertarianism

JGB Watch: 10 Year Yields Reenters Crash Zone

I am in a Japan debt crisis alert mode so my JGB updates.

Japan’s key stock market benchmark, the Nikkei closed marginally up (.1%) today after steep intraday swings

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Part of the early upside in the Nikkei could be due to the early interventions by the BoJ on JGBs

Near the closing bell, the Nikkei’s more than 1% gains were almost wiped out, except for the residual gains.

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As of this writing, JGB yields across the curve has gone materially higher except the 30 year.

10 year yields have already encroached on Last Thursday’s flash crash zone.

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So far, the ongoing turmoil in Japan’s bond markets have not yet caused panic elsewhere. Although Europe’s markets have been modestly lower as of this writing.

The Nikkei futures has likewise been moderately down by less than 1%.

Fitch Defies S&P on China’s Credit Bubble

Defying the consensus, US Credit rating agency Fitch ratings says China’s bubble is unsustainable.

From the Bloomberg: (bold mine)
Chinese banks are adding assets at the rate of an entire U.S. banking system in five years. To Charlene Chu of Fitch Ratings, that signals a crisis is brewing.
Total lending from banks and other financial institutions in China was 198 percent of gross domestic product last year, compared with 125 percent four years earlier, according to calculations by Chu, the company’s Beijing-based head of China financial institutions. Fitch cut the nation’s long-term local-currency debt rating last month, in the first downgrade by one of the top three rating companies in 14 years.

“There is just no way to grow out of a debt problem when credit is already twice as large as GDP and growing nearly twice as fast,” Chu, 41, said in an interview.
Usually I would take the opposite side of the fence vis-à-vis credit rating agencies, but in the case above, the Fitch analyst Ms. Charlene Chu resonates on my analytical methodology: She focuses on the trajectory.

China has implemented a massive RMB 4 trillion or $586 billion stimulus meant to shield against the US epicenter crisis in 2008. This serves as an aggravating or secondary cause. From the same article:
Amid the global credit crunch of 2008, China ramped up lending by state-controlled banks to prevent an economic slowdown. The assets of Chinese banks expanded by 71 trillion yuan ($11.2 trillion) in the four years through 2012, according to government data. They may increase by as much as 20 trillion yuan this year, Chu said April 23. That will exceed the $13.4 trillion of assets held by U.S. commercial banks at the end of last year, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Chu says companies’ ability to pay back what they owe is wearing away, as China gets less economic growth for every yuan of lending.
In short, the stimulus only created massive malinvestments or transfers of resources to wealth consuming activities. Thus the diminishing returns of credit. The payback from which is likely to come sooner than later.

The Chinese government’s denial:
China’s expansion of credit hasn’t caused a surge in the proportion of bad loans, data from the banking regulator show.

While loans overdue for at least three months have grown for six straight quarters to reach 526.5 billion yuan at the end of March, the ratio of nonperforming loans declined to 0.96 percent as of March 31 from 2.42 percent at the end of 2008, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
As previously noted, Non Performing Loans (NPL) are coincidental or lagging indicators. They usually become apparent when the bubbles are in the process of reversing. 

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Yet for as long as the bubble inflates, or for as long as housing prices moves up, the Ponzi financing scheme may continue to thrive.

When entities (private or public) can hardly finance principal and interests of outstanding loans from cash flows but increasingly depends on rising assets to cover funding requirements, through asset sales or as collateral for more borrowing such is called a Ponzi finance as postulated by economist Hyman Minsky.

China’s housing bubble continues to balloon even as the real economy has materially been slowing down, as shown in the chart from Wall Street Journal. Such is a sign of growing Ponzi finance.

In short, current inflationist policies by the Chinese government motivates the public to speculate on housing and other financial packages rather than invest on productive enterprises.

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Such housing bubble has likewise drawn in hot money as shown by the chart from Zero Hedge

The Chinese government has recently moved to curtail hot money flows using copper imports to facilitate “carry trades” based on “interest rate arbitrages”.

Going back Fitch. Ms. Chu says China’s statistical data has been unreliable. Importantly she says that much of what I call Ponzi finance may have found a channel in the burgeoning “Shadow Banking Sector”
Chu, who has covered Chinese financial institutions at Fitch for seven years, says these figures are distorted. The ratio of nonperforming loans to total lending has declined mainly because credit has surged, she said. Moreover, the regulator’s data doesn’t reflect the real amount of debt because of the ways banks move loans off their books, Chu said.

Some loans, often for real estate, are bundled together and sold to savers as so-called wealth-management products, while other assets are sold to non-bank financial institutions, including trusts, to lower the lenders’ bad debt levels, according to Chu. Wealth management products and trusts are sold to investors eager to get more than the government-mandated benchmark of 3 percent annual interest on bank savings accounts.

“The data may be somewhat accurate for the on-balance-sheet loan portfolios of the banks, but banks have substantial off-balance-sheet positions for which there is no asset-quality information,” she said.
The Moody’s estimates that China’s Shadow Banking System have reached 29 trillion yuan or  $4.7 trillion  compared to 17.3 trillion yuan in 2010

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Shadow banks are manifestations of regulatory arbitrages or the circumvention of regulations. China's shadow banks has been mainly through Wealth Management Products (WMP) which have mainly been about short term financing

Quoting Ms. Chu from another article:
WMPs are vehicles that can borrow/lend, and banks engage in transactions with their own and each other’s WMPs. This makes the pools of assets and liabilities tied to WMPs in effect second balance sheets, but with nothing but on-balance-sheet liquidity, reserves, and capital to meet payouts and absorb losses. These hidden balance sheets are beginning to undermine the integrity of banks’ published balance sheets.

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The leverage being accreted can be seen in the accelerating growth of China’s bank assets as shown from the chart by Northern Trust. Bank Assets in the official sector have now topped 250% of GDP and excludes the shadow banks. Bank assets has spiked since 2008. 

Every bubble culminates with a mania phase, characterized by a blow off in the build up of debt which ultimately implodes
A jump in the ratio of credit to GDP preceded banking crises in Japan, where the measure surged 45 percentage points from 1985 to 1990, and South Korea, where it gained 47 percentage points from 1994 to 1998, Fitch said in July 2011. In China, it has increased 73 percentage points in four years, according to Fitch’s estimates.

“You just don’t see that magnitude of increase” in the ratio of credit to GDP, Chu said. “It’s usually one of the most reliable predictors for a financial crisis.”
New Picture (12)

I have previously shown this chart from Harvard’s Reinhart-Rogoff where debt build up leading to every crisis intensifies until this hits a certain debt intolerance level which may triggered internally or externally.

Fitch versus S&P
The nation is in a better position now to tackle nonperforming loans, said Liao Qiang, a Beijing-based director at S&P. In the past decade, China’s economy has quadrupled, the number of urban residents surpassed those on farms and policy makers allowed freer flows of its currency in and out of the country. Its foreign-exchange reserves surged fivefold from 2004 to $3.3 trillion at the end of 2012.

“Given that China’s credit is mostly funded by its internally generated deposits, I don’t think a real financial crisis, which is normally manifested in a liquidity shortage, will happen anytime soon,” S&P’s Liao said by phone. Local-currency savings stood at 92 trillion yuan at the end of 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Again we see the conflict between analysis based on statistics and with that of economic logic.

Bubbles are symptoms of savings being squandered for yield chasing speculative wealth consuming activities.

With underdeveloped capital markets and as the Chinese government uses financial repression via negative real rates to confiscate people’s savings, real savings by the average Chinese are being transferred (to the government) and consumed (through speculations—housing and Ponzi Shadow banks). The implication is that real savings are being depleted. 

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China’s stock market continues to languish since the 2007 top. This provides scant returns for the public (tradingeconomics.com)

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And that’s why many Chinese gravitate to gold. The state of the Chinese yuan, like other fiat currencies, reveals of the "inflation tax" and continues to depreciate against gold as shown by the chart from GoldMoney.com

Surging bank loans
Chinese banks extended 2.8 trillion yuan of loans in the first quarter, 12 percent more than a year earlier and the second-largest quarterly total on record, government data show. Economic growth in the period slowed to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

Only 29 percent of last year’s aggregate financing translated into economic growth, the lowest rate on record, as borrowers use more resources to finance outstanding debt and less for investment, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Michael Werner wrote in January.

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The reality is that the Chinese government has already launched a stealth stimulus since last year. 

This can be seen in the continuing credit growth in the Chinese banking sector as seen from ‘the chart from Dr. Ed Yardeni.

Most of the pick up in credit growth I believe has been directed to State Owned Enterprises (SOE). One must realize that Chinese economy remains heavily politicized where many firms are wards of the government. So Chinese policies can be coursed through them without official admission. 

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And as a final note, the covert stimulus being reflected as credit boom is likewise manifested on money supply as shown by the chart from Zero Hedge

Denials will not assume away the effects of unsound policies.

At the end of the day: bubbles (something out of nothing) and Ponzi schemes will reveal of their true nature. 

This means I will not bet on the China led “Asian century” until we see significant liberalization of her economy and monetary system.



Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Oops, JGBs Yields Edge Higher Again

I am in a Japan debt crisis watch mode. So my focus on JGBs.

Japan’s stock market markedly rallied today, the benchmark Nikkei close 1.2% higher today. Most Asian markets have been up today, some are still trading as of this writing.

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Chart from Bloomberg

But despite the stock market rally, Japan’s bond markets remain queasy as investors failed to show up at the Japanese government’s 20 year bond offering today.

From Reuters (bold mine) 
Japanese government bonds skidded on Tuesday, with the benchmark yield moving back toward last week's 13-month high, after a 20-year sale disappointed some investors and a Bank of Japan official offered no specific steps on market operations.

BOJ board member Ryuzo Miyao told a news conference on Tuesday it was vital to keep long- and short-term interest rates on a stable path.

His remarks offered little in the way of concrete reassurance to a market left reeling by the central bank's massive stimulus scheme unveiled on April 4, under which it is buying a monthly amount equivalent to 70 percent of JGB issuance.

Miyao's comments, combined with a recovery in recently languishing Japanese shares, added to the pallor cast by the downbeat auction outcome.

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Yields rose across the JGB curve with 5 and 10 years rising most at an even 5 bps. Meanwhile, the yields of 30 years inched up by 2 bps and the 2 year added 1 bp.

With the 10 year at .87%, will the 1% mark be tested again in the coming days? If so how will financial markets react? Will global markets interpret this as just hunky dory or topsy turvy?

Yes, things are getting to be a lot interesting.

China’s “Power Market” Political Economy

A Friedrich von Hayek influenced Chinese journalist Yang Jisheng recently discussed about China’s history and current political economy.

Here’s Austrian economist Joseph Salerno at the Mises Blog
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal Mr Yang now reveals that he was greatly influenced by Friedrich A. Hayek’s classic work The Road to Serfdom , a heavily redacted version of which was translated into Chinese in 1997. Indeed Hayek had presciently written in this book, “In a country where the sole employer is the state, opposition means death by slow starvation.” Not only did Hayek’s book provide Mr. Yang with an explanation of the tragic events of his youth, it also explains the current Chinese system, which he maintains, has been completely misunderstood. The Wall Street Journal summarized Mr. Yang’s position as follows:
“China’s economy is not what [Party leaders] claim as the ‘socialist-market economy,’ ” he says. “It’s a ‘power-market’ economy.”
What does that mean?
“It means the market is controlled by the power. . . . For example, the land: Any permit to enter any sector, to do any business has to be approved by the government. Even local government, down to the county level. So every county operates like an enterprise, a company. The party secretary of the county is the CEO, the president.”
Put another way, the conventional notion that the modern Chinese system combines political authoritarianism with economic liberalism is mistaken: A more accurate description of the recipe is dictatorship and cronyism, with the results showing up in rampant corruption, environmental degradation and wide inequalities between the politically well-connected and everyone else. “There are two major forms of hatred” in China today, Mr. Yang explains. “Hatred toward the rich; hatred toward the powerful, the officials.” As often as not they are one and the same.
(bold mine)
Well, “a more accurate description of the recipe is dictatorship and cronyism” is really about fascism. And this has not just been about China.

Fascism, as traditional conservative and an outspoken critic of the Roosevelt administration's domestic and foreign policy decision, John Thomas Flynn wrote, is
a system of social organization in which the political state is a dictatorship supported by a political elite and in which the economic society is an autarchic capitalism, enclosed and planned, in which the government assumes responsibility for creating adequate purchasing power through the instrumentality of national debt and in which militarism is adopted as a great economic project for creating work as well as a great romantic project in the service of the imperialist state.
(bold mine)

Fascism via "instrumentality of national debt" or vastly increased public non-military spending as evident in ballooning budget deficits, and militarism's "great romantic project" such as "to defend the territory from bullies". 

Sounds familiar?

The Religion Called Central Banking: Swiss National Bank Edition

The worship of central banking as superheroes continues

From today’s Bloomberg headline: Swiss Seen Immune From Euro Recession as SNB Holds Firm
The Swiss National Bank (SNBN) has shielded the economy from the effects of the slump in the euro region with its currency ceiling of 1.20 francs per euro. Such a policy has helped ensure Switzerland suffered only one quarter of contraction since the cap was imposed in September 2011, and an unemployment rate about a quarter of that in the 17-nation bloc.
So far yes.
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But what will be the long term costs of shielding the economy by massively expanding the SNB’s balance sheets

Media believes in the philosopher's stone or of attaining something from nothing or that there are no costs from money printing.

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But the Swiss government and the SNB’s policies has prompted for a ballooning of external debt.
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Likewise domestic credit to the Private sector continues to swell
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Moreover the growth of domestic credit Provided by the Banking sector has been accelerating.
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Swiss stock market measured by the SMI has been making a run but still short of the 2007 high. Above charts courtesy of tradingeconomics.com
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Swiss housing prices continues to spiral higher. The reflexive feedback loop in play Higher prices, more debt.  More debt. Higher prices

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And the Swiss banking sector as % of GDP is about to 400% which ranks third only to France and Netherland.

Unless one comes to believe that interest rates will stay low forever, the crux of the question is how will all these measure up when interest rates rise?

Parallel Universe in Gold: Wall Street’s Record Gold Shorts Amidst Rapid Inventory Depletion

If your source of information is only mainstream media, you’d have the impression that gold prices will be headed for the gutters. That's because gold shorts are at a record.

From yesterday’s Bloomberg: (bold mine)
Hedge funds are the least bullish on gold in more than five years as speculation about the pace of money printing by central banks whipsawed prices, driving volatility to a 17-month high.

Money managers cut their net-long position by 9 percent to 35,686 futures and options as of May 21, the lowest since July 2007, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Holdings of short contracts rose 6.7 percent to a record 79,416. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.-traded commodities slid 2.1 percent, as investors became more bearish on coffee and wheat.

Gold’s 60-day historical volatility touched the highest since December 2011 last week and a gauge of price swings for the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, surged 73 percent this year.

Record short contracts from SPDR Gold Trust as of May 23, 2013 (Bloomberg’s chart of the Day)

Another record short contract from COMEX gold. According to Zero Hedge on May 24th “showed that the Comex gold short position grew once again to a new all time high of 79,416 shorts”

In short, Wall Street seem to have repositioned for another assault on gold prices.
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Despite such record shorts, so far gold prices has held. 

Japan’s twin bond and stock market crash appears to have benefited gold over the short run.

As a side note; yesterday the public holiday in the US in celebration of the Memorial Day is the likely reason for the late update from stockcharts.com.

Anyway, the interim short term rebound of the yen coincides with gold’s immediate rally. Notice too that gold prices seems to have formed a “double bottom”

What really interest me is the growing parallel universe in the gold markets, particularly the record pile up in shorts amidst rapidly dwindling physical inventories

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Comex gold via 24 hours gold continues to plunge 

Harvey Organ reports of a sustained hemorrhage in GLD inventories which he calls a “bullion bank run”.

Last week’s withdrawals:
Friday: 2.41 tonnes
Thursday: 1.5 tonnes
Wednesday: 3.01 tonnes
Tuesday: 8.42 tonnes
Monday: 6.91 tonnes
The point is Wall Street appears to be selling what they barely possess.
Wholesale premium/discount to melt on 90% us silver coins
I have repeatedly been pointing out of the widening disparities between real physical gold and Wall Street paper gold since gold’s flash crash in April. The chart above from the Daily Reckoning represents the Premium chart of silver coins (which I use here as a proxy for gold). 

The next point is that while Wall Street detests gold, main street loves gold. Thus falling inventories amidst record shorts only means of an on going transfer process of possession from Wall Street to the Physical real markets.

Yet this comes in spite of the obstacles thrown by some governments.

For instance, the Indian government today vastly expanded its frontlines on her war on gold. Today, the Indian government banned loans on gold funds.

The Reserve Bank of India said on Monday banks would not be allowed to give loans against units of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and gold mutual funds.

As these products are backed by bullion and primary gold, the restriction on grant of loan against gold bullion will be applicable to loan against units of gold ETFs and units of gold mutual funds, the RBI said in a statement.

The RBI also said that while giving loan against gold coins sold by banks, the lenders should ensure that the weight of the coins does not exceed 50 grams per customer
So the Indian government’s sustained assault on gold means official transactions (statistical growth) will be reduced as the black markets take over.

Importantly the Indian government’s brazen siege on gold, which has huge religious and cultural attachment on the Indians, will likely spawn violence in overtime. Apparently like almost all governments, the lessons from history are hardly heeded.

Additionally the robust demand in the physical gold market is being compounded by accumulations by emerging market central banks which have reportedly used the recent crash to add to their reserves.

From another Bloomberg report:
Russia and Kazakhstan expanded gold reserves for the seventh straight month in April, when prices tumbled into a bear market, International Monetary Fund data show. The volume for the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s benchmark cash contract jumped to a three-week high on May 24, while assets in gold-backed exchange-traded products dropped for a 15th week last week.

IMF data showed Turkey, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Greece joined Russia and Kazakhstan in adding gold to reserves last month. Mexico and Canada reduced holdings, the data showed. In China, the volume for cash bullion of 99.99 percent purity rose to 22,455 kilograms on May 24 from 12,521 kilograms on May 23, according to data on the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s website.
Bottom line: When the cabal of Wall Street-insolvent governments find themselves out of physical gold to short or when more people discover of the reality of fractional reserve gold trade used by Wall Street, there will be tremendous repercussions. (As an example: billionaire George Soros' reduced exposure to paper gold which was bandied by media as "bearish for gold" was really a redemption from paper to physical gold)

There will be bankruptcies of institutions who fail to meet required deliveries, perhaps this could have been the plight that led to the closure of the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange. Gold markets will also be emancipated from political interventions and from the collusion to suppress gold prices. Importantly a gold buying panic to cover on such massive shorts.