PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: “Frightening” Global Synchronized Slowdown

Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO, one of the top investment firms with more than $1.7 trillion of managed funds, has been apprehensive with current global economic conditions.

From Bloomberg,

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian called recent declines in purchasing manager indexes in Europe and Asia “frightening” and said the world economy is suffering its severest slowdown since the global recession ended in 2009.

El-Erian, who is chief executive officer of the Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, predicted global growth of 2.25 percent over the next 12 months. That’s down from the 3.9 percent in 2011 and 5.3 percent in 2010 recorded by the International Monetary Fund. The world economy contracted 0.6 percent in 2009.

“This is a serious, synchronized slowdown,” El-Erian said in an interview today.

His forecast highlights the troubles the global economy is facing as the euro area struggles to contain its debt crisis and growth in the U.S. and China slows. Separate surveys of purchasing managers released yesterday showed manufacturing in the 17-nation euro area shrinking by the most in 37 months while Chinese factories teetered on the edge of contraction.

Mr. El-Erian shares my concern about the huge uncertainty which beclouds the global economy.

The growing risks of global recession, in my view, has been brought about by political gridlocks in major economies, aside from tentative central bankers who seem to have shifted to Public Relations work to manage the public’s expectations than from taking real actions.

Considering that global financial markets and economies have become heavily dependent on central banking steroids, the dearth of these only brings to the surface all the misdirected investments which only magnifies the bubble busting conditions.

Below is a list of the factory activities of some of the major economies of the world. Table from the Wall Street Journal Blog

About 70% of the global factory activity index has been in contraction, this includes all G-7 economies.

To add, over the past three days, news seems to be getting a lot bleaker.

Taiwan’s economy contracted in the three months which ended in June (BBC).

Japan’s industrial output fell for the third straight month. (BBC)

South Korea’s factory index sank the most in seven months in July (CNBC)

US consumer spending slips in June (Northern Trust)

US Manufacturing contracts for the second month in a row (Zero Hedge)

This morning, China’s non-manufacturing industries expanded at a slower pace in July as new orders and outlooks for future business slipped, an official survey indicated (Bloomberg)

This seems congruent to the recent decline of China’s Manufacturing Index which seems at the brink of contraction (Bloomberg)

Be careful out there.

More Promises from ECB’s Mario Draghi and the US Federal Reserve

Central bankers continue to engage in talk therapy or jawboning the markets or manipulating the public's expectations in the hope that promises to inflate may be enough to rejuvenate the “animal spirits”.

From Bloomberg,

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled the ECB intends to join forces with governments to buy bonds in sufficient quantities to ease the region’s debt crisis, while conceding that Germany’s Bundesbank has reservations about the plan.

ECB bond purchases would likely focus on shorter-term maturities, would be conducted in a way to soothe investors’ concerns about seniority, and wouldn’t breach European Union rules prohibiting the financing of government deficits, Draghi told reporters in Frankfurt today. ECB officials are working on the plan and details will be fleshed out in coming weeks, he said.

“Risk premia that are related to fears of the reversibility of the euro are unacceptable, and they need to be addressed in a fundamental manner,” Draghi said at a press conference after keeping the benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.75 percent. “The euro is irreversible.” There is a “severe malfunctioning” in bond markets, he said.

This seems little different from the US Federal Reserve which has deferred from taking on more stimulus but gave a strong signal that such contingency would be used in case the economy deteriorates further.

From an earlier Bloomberg article,

The Federal Reserve said it will pump fresh stimulus if necessary into the weakening economic expansion to boost growth and reduce an unemployment rate that’s been stuck at 8 percent or higher for more than three years.

The Federal Open Market Committee “will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability,” it said today in a statement at the end of a two-day meeting in Washington. “Economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year.”

So far markets have held on well to such promises, although as I previously admonished, eventually markets will seek the real thing.

should markets continue to rise in ABSENCE of REAL actions from central bankers, we cannot rule out that the markets could fall like a house of cards (fat tail risks) or what I would call a Dr. Marc Faber event.

The market’s deep addiction to stimulus will eventually seek REAL stimulus more than just promises or in central bank lingo, signalling channel. Reversal of expectations can become violent.

Such opaqueness in policy directions only underscores the uncertainty of the financial marketplace which only amplifies the risks of sharp volatilities.

Be very careful out there.

Will Soaring Agricultural Commodity Prices Bring about Stagflation to Asia?

Over the past few weeks, US dollar prices of key agricultural commodities have soared.

Prices of corn, wheat and grains have reached their highest levels in 3 years.

And this has alarmed economic experts from Africa.

From Reuters, (bold emphasis mine)

Rising food prices could hit commodity producers in Africa with a dangerous "double whammy" when combined with an economic slowdown in Europe and China reducing African exports of oil and raw materials, a leading African economist said on Tuesday.

Mthuli Ncube, Chief Economist and Vice President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), saw the threat of a food price spike casting a shadow over an otherwise positive growth outlook for Africa that will outpace much of the rest of the world.

"Certainly, there is a lot of reason to worry," Ncube told Reuters, recalling a food and fuel prices squeeze in 2008 that touched off social unrest and food riots in several African nations and also directly affected the continent's growth.

Global economic slowdown compounded by surging food prices would mean stagflation.

From the same Reuters article,

Despite Africa's comparatively strong economic expansion rates, the continent was experiencing "jobless growth", particularly in relation to its huge reservoir of unemployed youth, Ncube said.

Youth represented 60 percent of Africa's unemployed, and despite recording world-topping growth rates between 2000 and 2008, the continent was failing to create the number of jobs necessary to absorb the 10-12 million young and increasingly educated people entering the labor market each year.

Ncube said a major obstacle to more job creation was the persistence of what he called "one-sided economies" in Africa that exported oil and raw materials instead of moving decisively to diversify into job-multiplying manufacturing, commercial agriculture or agro-processing.

"It's a painful slog to diversify," he said.

"We need entrepreneurs to do it. We need to spend the time to build that business culture, the entrepreneurs," he added.

While Africa has taken important steps towards embracing liberalization, their hefty dependence on commodity exports remains an impediment to economic freedom which is the reason for the dearth of entrepreneurs.

This serves as more evidence where the supposed blessing from abundant resources can in fact translate to disadvantage—resource curse. Politicians and their cronies who benefit from commodities have little incentive to open their respective economies until forced by economic reality.

Although the bright side is that multilateral experts from Africa, who provide policy recommendations to political leaders, have exhibited increased recognition of the importance of entrepreneurship and of a political friendly business environment to economic development.

Yet while news tell us that drought in the US has mainly been the catalyst for the spike in prices of agri commodities, others share my insight that an integral element of these price surges has been because of central bank actions.

From yesterday’s Bloomberg article, (bold emphasis mine)

For the first time in more than two years, commodities, equities, bonds and the dollar posted gains, as the U.S. drought sent corn prices to a record and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s pledge to protect the euro buoyed stocks.

Raw materials led the increase as the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 raw materials rose 6.4 percent in July, the most since October. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities rallied at the end of the month for a 1.4 percent gain. The Dollar Index, a measure against six currencies, added 1.3 percent. Bonds of all types returned 1.4 percent on average, the most since December, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Index shows.

The last time all four measures rose for a month was in April 2010, when concerns about Greece were heating up and U.S. economic reports were improving. While corn rose the most last month in almost a quarter century and wheat reached a four-year high, financial assets gained as policy makers worked to boost global growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said he’s prepared to take more steps, and Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro.

“A lot of the rally in everything is central-bank led,” said Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which oversees $80 billion. “So now we have a world where central-bank actions are really what people are looking at, and those actions are really positive for all asset prices and negative for savers and folks who are looking to put money in at reasonable levels over a longer period of time.”

And Africa’s stagflation concerns should also haunt Asia, and the Philippines, whom have been major agricultural commodity importers

As Zero Hedge points out, (bold original)

The level of inventories were already low going in and as Bloomberg notes, consumers around the world will feel the effect of higher food prices as the worst drought in 50 years impact the world's largest exporter of corn and wheat (and 3rd largest of soymeal). Within Asia, Korea and Malaysia will be most adversely affected, considering direct effects referenced in per capita and GDP terms. Indonesia and Japan are Asia’s largest importers of wheat, both importing roughly 5.7 million metric tons on average. China is by a wide margin the region’s largest importer of soy, with average imports of 49.9 million in the last five years. The impact on headline inflation in Asia will be stronger for the economies with lower per capita incomes — Vietnam, India, the Philippines and Indonesia — where food and food products account for a larger share of the typical consumption basket. Even in places where incomes are high, such as Singapore, food accounts for 22 percent of the consumer price index.

This only means that high commodity prices will be transmitted to Asia, whom has been inflating too (mostly through negative real interest rates).

And that a prolonged environment of elevated prices in agricultural commodities will likely induce an adverse impact to the region’s domestic economies too. (chart from Financial Times)

Stagflation risks therefore represents as another potential source of contagion.

Yet the most likely political response from the risks of a food crisis will be protectionist in nature (couched through cries of “self sufficiency”) that will only exacerbate such conditions.

In the Philippines, the risks of global and local food crisis may have been amplified by the desire by the Philippine central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) to stoke inflation through the recent cut of policy interest rates to new lows.

As the Inquirer reported last week,

Lower interest rates are expected to spur demand for loans which, in turn, could help boost purchases of goods and services. Higher demand, if supply remains constant, will help accelerate inflation.

The BSP said preventing the consumer price index from falling below target was as important for the economy as avoiding a higher-than-target inflation. Depending on variables, a very low inflation rate can be just as bad for business as high inflation, according to economists.

The BSP shares the same demand side interventionist creed as her international contemporaries.

They believe that the stealth redistribution of resources from the society (which includes the poor) to the cronies and to the political class will ‘help the economy’. In reality, this functions no more than a political setup, where markets will eventually get the blame, and thus lays the groundwork for more interventionism.

The great Ludwig von Mises presciently warned of this in his Theory of Money and Credit (bold highlights mine)

The undesirable but inevitable consequence of inflation, the rise in prices, provides them with a welcome pretext to establish price control and thus step by step to realize their scheme of all-round planning. The illusory profits which the inflationary falsification of economic calculation makes appear are dealt with as if they were real profits; in taxing them away under the misleading label of excess profits, parts of the capital invested are confiscated. In spreading discontent and social unrest, inflation generates favourable conditions for the subversive propaganda of the self-styled champions of welfare and progress. The spectacle that the political scene of the last two decades has offered has been really amazing. Governments without any hesitation have embarked upon vast inflation and government economists have proclaimed deficit spending and 'expansionist' monetary and credit management as the surest way towards prosperity, steady progress, and economic improvement. But the same governments and their henchmen have indicted business for the inevitable consequences of inflation. While advocating high prices and wage rates as a panacea and praising the Administration for having raised the 'national income' (of course, expressed in terms of a depreciating currency) to an unprecedented height, they blamed private enterprise for charging outrageous prices and profiteering. While deliberately restricting the output of agricultural products in order to raise prices, statesmen have had the audacity to contend that capitalism creates scarcity and that but for the sinister machinations of big business there would be plenty of everything. And millions of voters have swallowed all this.

So the next time a food crisis erupts, you should know the real culprit.

False Flag Operations by Governments

Here is a list of False Flag operations conducted by governments.

False Flag, according to Wikipedia.org, are covert operations designed to deceive in such a way that the operations appear as though they are being carried out by other entities. The name is derived from the military concept of flying false colors; that is: flying the flag of a country other than one’s own.

From Washington’s Blog (hat tip Lew Rockwell.com)

• A major with the Nazi SS admitted at the Nuremberg trials that - under orders from the chief of the Gestapo - he and some other Nazi operatives faked attacks on their own people and resources which they blamed on the Poles, to justify the invasion of Poland. Nazi general Franz Halder also testified at the Nuremberg trials that Nazi leader Hermann Goering admitted to setting fire to the German parliament building, and then falsely blaming the communists for the arson

• The CIA admits that it hired Iranians in the 1950's to pose as Communists and stage bombings in Iran in order to turn the country against its democratically-elected prime minister

• Israel admits that an Israeli terrorist cell operating in Egypt planted bombs in several buildings, including U.S. diplomatic facilities, then left behind "evidence" implicating the Arabs as the culprits (one of the bombs detonated prematurely, allowing the Egyptians to identify the bombers, and several of the Israelis later confessed) (and see this and this)

• The former Italian Prime Minister, an Italian judge, and the former head of Italian counterintelligence admit that NATO, with the help of the Pentagon and CIA, carried out terror bombings in Italy and other European countries in the 1950s and blamed the communists, in order to rally people’s support for their governments in Europe in their fight against communism. As one participant in this formerly-secret program stated: "You had to attack civilians, people, women, children, innocent people, unknown people far removed from any political game. The reason was quite simple. They were supposed to force these people, the Italian public, to turn to the state to ask for greater security" (and see this)(Italy and other European countries subject to the terror campaign had joined NATO before the bombings occurred)

• As admitted by the U.S. government, recently declassified documents show that in the 1960's, the American Joint Chiefs of Staff signed off on a plan to blow up AMERICAN airplanes (using an elaborate plan involving the switching of airplanes), and also to commit terrorist acts on American soil, and then to blame it on the Cubans in order to justify an invasion of Cuba. See the following ABC news report; the official documents; and watch this interview with the former Washington Investigative Producer for ABC's World News Tonight with Peter Jennings. Official State Department documents show that - only nine months before - the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and other high-level officials discussed blowing up a consulate in the Dominican Republic in order to justify an invasion of that country. (While the Joint Chiefs of Staff pushed as a serious proposal for Operation Northwoods to be carried out, cooler heads fortunately prevailed; President Kennedy or his Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara apparently vetoed the plan)

• The South African Truth and Reconciliation Council found that, in 1989, the Civil Cooperation Bureau (a covert branch of the South African Defense Force) approached an explosives expert and asked him "to participate in an operation aimed at discrediting the ANC [the African National Congress] by bombing the police vehicle of the investigating officer into the murder incident", thus framing the ANC for the bombing

• An Algerian diplomat and several officers in the Algerian army admit that, in the 1990s, the Algerian army frequently massacred Algerian civilians and then blamed Islamic militants for the killings (and see this video; and Agence France-Presse, 9/27/2002, French Court Dismisses Algerian Defamation Suit Against Author)

• Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Hugh Shelton says that a Clinton cabinet member proposed letting Saddam kill an American pilot as a pretext for war in Iraq (and see this)
• According to the Washington Post, Indonesian police admit that the Indonesian military killed American teachers in Papua in 2002 and blamed the murders on a Papuan separatist group in order to get that group listed as a terrorist organization.

• The well-respected former Indonesian president also admits that the government probably had a role in the Bali bombings

• As reported by BBC, the New York Times, and Associated Press, Macedonian officials admit that the government murdered 7 innocent immigrants in cold blood and pretended that they were Al Qaeda soldiers attempting to assassinate Macedonian police, in order to join the "war on terror".

Read the rest here

Recently the supposed underwear bomber suicide bomber turned out to be a CIA double agent

In the Philippines, the Marcos regime staged the ambush of then Secretary of National Defense Juan Ponce Enrile as pretext to impose Martial Law.

Bottom line: Political events can be manipulated by governments to achieve stealth goal/s.

I believe this may apply to the controversial territorial disputes

We can’t simply trust politically influenced media or the mainstream to tell us the truth.

The IRS Awaits US Olympic Winners

Poor US Olympic athletes.

Triumph from years of hard work will only mean that much of their earnings (seized) taxed away by the IRS.

From America’s Tax Reform, (bold original)

While 529 hardworking athletes proudly represent the United States in the 2012 Olympics, any medals and money they earn wearing red, white and blue will be taxed by the IRS. According to research done by the Americans for Tax Reform Foundation, U.S. Olympic athletes are liable to pay income tax on medals earned and prizes received at the London games.

American medalists face a top income tax rate of 35 percent. Under U.S. tax law, they must add the value of their Olympic medals and prizes to their taxable income. It is therefore easy to calculate the tax bite on Olympic glory.

At today’s commodity prices, the value of a gold medal is about $675. A silver medal is worth about $385 while a bronze medal is worth under $5.

There are also prizes that accompany each medal: $25,000 for gold, $15,000 for silver, and $10,000 for bronze.

So how much will U.S. Olympic medal winners have to pay in taxes to the IRS?

	Medal Tax	Prize Tax	Total Tax Burden
Gold	$236	$8,750	$8,986
Silver	$135	$5,250	$5,385
Bronze	$2	$3,500	$3,502

American gold medal winners will pay the IRS up to $8,986. Silver medal winners will pay up to $5,385. Bronze medal winners will pay up to $3,502.

Of course add to the miseries of the world Olympians are the vastly reduced value of their medallions which I showed earlier.

Below is from the Economist,

Calculations by The Economist find that this is much more than the "podium value" of any previous gold medal (based on estimates of the composition of medals and bullion prices at the time, adjusted for inflation). This is partly because gold and silver prices are now historically high and partly because this year's medal is so much heavier, even though the extra weight is silver rather than gold. For the first time, the silver in this year's "gold" medal is actually worth more than its gold content. Moreover, if the metal content of earlier medals is valued at today's bullion prices, the London gold is worth only just over half of those handed out in 1912.

Yet the above signifies as evidences that governments barely reward the efforts and merits by their citizenry.

Quote of the Day: Olympics: A Giant Exercise in Sports Socialism

The Olympics are a giant exercise in sports socialism—or crony capitalism, if you prefer—where the profits are privatized and the costs socialized. The games never pay for themselves because they are designed not to. That’s because the International Olympic Committee (an opaque “nongovernmental” bureaucracy made up of fat cats from various countries) pockets most of the revenue from sponsorships and media rights (allegedly to promote global sports), requiring the host country to pay the bulk of the costs. Among the very few times the games haven’t left a city swimming in red ink was after the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, when voters, having learned from Montreal’s experience, barred the use of public funds, forcing the IOC to use existing facilities and pick up most of the tab for new ones.

This is from Shikha Dalmia at Reason. (Hat tip Professor Mark Perry)

Politicized activities are frequently characterized by guilt, envy, anger, finger pointing, victimization, divisiveness and covetism.

The astonishing record breaking feat by China’s 16 year old lady swimmer, Ye Shiwen, who even bested the 50 meter free style record of male American swimmer Ryan Lochte in the men’s race triggered swirl of rumors about “doping” which she vehemently denies.

Even without proof, such controversies reveal of the intolerance of the establishment of the unorthodox, where they would instead resort to mudslinging or rumor mongering.

As Professor Kling recently wrote

Politics channels the base emotion of hatred. A lot of political actions derive from hatred of the other.

Such antagonistic controversies only highlights the socialism of sports via the Olympics.

P.S. I was bogged down by the day long power outage (localized earth hour) yesterday so I wasn’t able to do much posting.

Quote of the Day: Preservation of Political Freedom through the Free Markets

What the market does is to reduce greatly the range of issues that must be decided through political means, and thereby to minimize the extent to which government need participate directly in the game. The characteristic feature of action through political channels is that it tends to require or enforce substantial conformity. The great advantage of the market, on the other hand, is that it permits wide diversity. It is, in political terms, a system of proportional representation. Each man can vote, as it were, for the color of tie he wants and get it; he does not have to see what color-the majority wants and then, if he is in the minority, submit.

It is this feature of the market that we refer to when we say that the market provides economic freedom. But this characteristic also has implications that go far beyond the narrowly economic. Political freedom means the absence of coercion of a man by his fellow men. The fundamental threat to freedom is power to coerce, be it in the hands of a monarch, a dictator, an oligarchy, or a momentary majority. The preservation of freedom requires the elimination of such concentration of power to the fullest possible extent and the dispersal and distribution of whatever power cannot be eliminated – a system of checks and balances. By removing the organization of economic activity from the control of political authority, the market eliminates this source of coercive power. It enables economic strength to be a check to political power rather than a reinforcement.

(bold emphasis added)

This from Milton and Rose Friedman’s 1962 book (p.15), Capitalism and Freedom (as quoted by Professor Don Boudreaux at Café Hayek).

The illustrious economist and freedom fighter Milton Friedman celebrated his centennial birthday yesterday. And this stirred up the hornet’s nest about Dr. Friedman’s “love fest” with Keynes.

I’d say that this controversy just shows how people’s views evolve and this applies to Dr. Friedman. For instance, despite promoting activist monetarism, Dr. Friedman eventually declared that he favored the abolishment of the US Federal Reserve see here and here

Nevertheless, while I may not be agreeable to some of his earlier “statist comprises”, he surely has been one of the most eloquent and charismatic promoter and advocate of free markets, in general. That's why many of his videos have been posted here.

Belated Happy Birthday Dr. Friedman

Massive Earth Hour (Blackouts) in India

Massive power outages in India has affected more than half of the population.

From the Bloomberg, (bold highlights mine)

India’s electricity grid collapsed for the second time in as many days, cutting off more than half the country’s 1.2 billion population in the nation’s worst power crisis on record.

Commuter trains in the capital stopped running, forcing the operator, Delhi Metro Rail Corp., to evacuate passengers, spokesman Anuj Dayal said. NTPC Ltd. (NTPC), the biggest generator, shut down 36 percent of its capacity as a precaution, Chairman Arup Roy Choudhury said by telephone. More than 100 inter-city trains were stranded, Northern Railway spokesman Neeraj Sharma said, as the blackout engulfed states in the north and east.

So what went wrong?

From the same article…

State-owned Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd., which operates the world’s largest transmission networks, manages power lines including in the northern and eastern regions. NTPC and billionaire Anil Ambani-controlled Reliance Power Ltd. (RPWR) operate power stations in north India that feed electricity into the national grid. The northern and eastern grids together account for about 40 percent of India’s total electricity generating capacity, according to the Central Electricity Authority.

The grids in the east, north, west and the northeast are interconnected, making them vulnerable, said Jayant Deo, managing director of the Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. The outage has also spread to seven additional states in the northeast, NDTV television channel reported.

“Without a definitive plan by the government to gradually bring the grids back online, this problem could absolutely get worse,” Deo said.

Singh is seeking to secure $400 billion of investment in the power industry in the next five years as he targets an additional 76,000 megawatts in generation by 2017. India has missed every annual target to add electricity production capacity since 1951.

Well in reality, the root of the problem hasn’t been about ‘definite plans’ by the Indian government, but rather largely due to India’s statist political economy.

Again from the same article…

Improving infrastructure, which the World Economic Forum says is a major obstacle to doing business in India, is among the toughest challenges facing Singh as he bids to revive expansion in Asia’s third-largest economy that slid to a nine- year low of 5.3 percent in the first quarter.

Tussles over policy making with allies in the ruling coalition, corruption allegations and defeats in regional elections have weakened Singh’s government since late 2010.

Must I forget, artificial electricity demand has partly been boosted by India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), who passes the blame on others.

Again from the same article

The Reserve Bank of India, which has blamed infrastructure bottlenecks among others for contributing to the nation’s price pressures, today refrained from cutting interest rates even as growth in the $1.8 trillion economy cooled to a nine-year low in the first quarter.

Indian consumer-price inflation was 10.02 percent in June, the fastest among the Group of 20 major economies, while the benchmark wholesale-price measure is more than 7 percent.

The last time the northern grid collapsed was in 2001, leaving homes and businesses without electricity for 12 hours. The Confederation of Indian Industry, the country’s largest association of companies, estimated that blackout cost companies $107.5 million.

Chart above from global-rates.com and tradingeconomics.com

India’s bubble ‘easy money’ (upper window) policies in 2009-2010 fueled a stock market recovery (below window) in 2010.

On the other hand, the then negative interest rate regime also stoked local inflation (pane below policy interest rates).

This has prompted the Reserve Bank of India to repeatedly raise policy rates or tightened monetary policy. The result has been to put a brake on India’s economy and the stock market rebound.

Part of the Indian government’s attack on her twin deficits, which has been blamed for inflation through the decline of the currency, the rupee, has been to turn the heat on gold imports and bank gold sales.

Aside from demand from the monetary policies, electricity subsidies has also been a culprit. Farmers have been provided with subsidized electricity. Such subsidy has not only increased demand for power but also put pressure on water supplies.

Environmentalists would likely cheer this development as ‘Earth Hour’ environment conservation.

Yet India’s widespread blackouts are evidences and symptoms of government failure.

Rampant rolling blackouts extrapolate to severe economic dislocations which not only to means inconveniences but importantly prolonged economic hardship.

Bloomberg Censored in China

China’s authoritarian tendencies can still be seen from her continuing censorship of Bloomberg which seems in retaliation for the latter’s recent exposure of the China’s crony capitalist political economy.

Notes the CNN/Financial Times

Bloomberg's news website remains blocked by China's state censors a full month after it detailed the riches amassed by the family of Xi Jinping, the man who is expected to be the country's next president.

Although periodic outages of foreign media websites in China are common, the month-long total blackout of Bloomberg is an unusually harsh response, highlighting the extent to which its coverage angered the government.

Beijing has tried to apply pressure in other ways, too. In the weeks since the article was published, people believed to be state security agents have tailed some Bloomberg employees; Chinese bankers and financial regulators have cancelled previously arranged meetings with Matthew Winkler, Bloomberg's editor-in-chief; and Chinese investigators have visited local investment banks to see if they shared any information with Bloomberg, according to people with knowledge of these incidents…

In the report published on June 29, Bloomberg used publicly available records to show that Mr Xi's extended family had investments in companies with total assets of $376m; an 18 per cent indirect stake in a rare earths company with $1.73bn in assets; a $20.2m holding in a publicly traded technology company; a luxury villa in Hong Kong worth about $31.5m and at least six other Hong Kong properties worth a combined $24.1m.

Bloomberg was unable to trace any assets to Mr Xi himself, or to his wife or daughter. There was also no evidence of any wrongdoing by Mr Xi or his family.

Nevertheless, the report was seen as embarrassing for Mr Xi, threatening to undermine his image as a clean official in a country rife with corruption just months before he is set to succeed Hu Jintao as president in a once-in-a-decade leadership transition…

No other English-language mainstream media website has been blocked in China for longer than a few days since the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Censors now target specific articles or disrupt access to sites at politically sensitive times such as when dissident Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010.

This just goes to show why the Panglossian view of China’s future seems unwarranted.

China’s fate will ultimately depend on how political trends evolve (Will China revert to socialism or statism or a closed economy? Or will China embrace deeper liberalization?).

This cannot be interpreted merely from past performance. The above may also be symptoms of the strains from ongoing political deadlock and from economic slowdown (or bubble bust?).

For now China’s bubbles from previous Keynesian quasi boom bust policies will have to be addressed.

So far, the Shanghai Composite index keeps plumbing to new depths.

Quote of the Day: The Glass Steagall Myth

From Washington Post’s Steve Pearlstein. (hat tip Bob Wenzel)

Repeal of Glass-Steagall has become for the Democratic left what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are for the Republican right — a simple and facially plausible conspiracy theory about the crisis that reinforces what they already believed about financial markets and economic policy.

But why let facts get in the way of a good screenplay?

Facts such as that Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch — three institutions at the heart of the crisis — were pure investment banks that had never crossed the old line into commercial banking. The same goes for Goldman Sachs, another favorite villain of the left.

The infamous AIG? An insurance firm. New Century Financial? A real estate investment trust. No Glass-Steagall there.

Two of the biggest banks that went under, Wachovia and Washington Mutual, got into trouble the old-fashioned way – largely by making risky loans to homeowners. Bank of America nearly met the same fate, not because it had bought an investment bank but because it had bought Countrywide Financial, a vanilla-variety mortgage lender.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo — two large banks with big investment banking arms — resisted taking government capital and arguably could have weathered the crisis without it.

Did U.S. investment banks create a shadow banking system and derivatives market outside the normal regulatory framework that encouraged sloppy lending and created what turned out to be toxic securities? You betcha.

And did regular banks make some of those bad loans and buy up some of those toxic securities? Yes, they did.

But that was as much a problem at the banks and investment banks that combined as those that remained independent. More significantly, the bulk of the money that flowed through the shadow banking system didn’t come from government-insured bank deposits. It came from money market funds, hedge funds, pension funds, insurance companies, foreign banks and foreign central banks.

Confronted with these inconvenient facts, the conspiracists like to double-down and argue that the real damage caused by repeal of Glass-Steagall is that it triggered a wave of bank consolidation — which has now left more than half of the country’s banking assets under the control of a handful of institutions that are so big that the government has no choice but to bail them out if they risk a meltdown of the financial system.

No doubt about it — too-big-to-fail is a problem. It turns out, however, that it was also a problem in 1984, when Continental Illinois, the seventh-largest U.S. bank with a whopping $40 billion in assets, had to be rescued. It was a problem a few years later when the Fed quietly rescued Citicorp because of mountains of loans to Latin American governments that turned sour. It was a problem in 1998 when the Fed had to orchestrate the rescue of Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund with less than $5 billion in capital. And it was the reason behind the Fed’s 2007 rescue of Bear Stearns, with less than a quarter the size of its biggest Wall Street rivals.

Read the rest here

For the left, evidences that goes against them have simply been ignored.

The creed of the infallible moral authority of governments implies that all so-called “market failures” intuitively stem from the lack of government controls or oversight, the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act, notwithstanding.

Canada didn’t have a Glass-Steagall yet avoided the crisis of 2008 (Tom Woods). This only goes to show that, not only from the evidence perspective, their logic has been inconsistent or does not add up.

Reducing government, for the neo-liberals, essentially takes away the path to political nirvana. It would be senseless to argue against faith based political zealotry.

Progressive Ideology: The 10 Paths to Nirvana

Progressives or the neo-liberalsm who account for populist politics in the US, unwaveringly embrace big government

Professor Robert Higgs enumerates the Progressives’ 10 paths to nirvana.

An economist notes in particular that progressive ideology now embraces the following default conclusions:

1. If a social or economic problem seems to exist, the state should impose regulation to remedy it.
2. If regulation has already been imposed, it should be made more expansive and severe.
3. If an economic recession occurs, the state should adopt “stimulus” programs by actively employing the state’s fiscal and monetary powers.
4. If the recession persists despite the state’s adoption of “stimulus” programs, the state should increase the size of these programs.
5. If long-term economic growth seems to be too slow to satisfy powerful people’s standard of performance, the state should intervene to accelerate the rate of growth by making “investments” in infrastructure, health, education, and technological advance.
6. If the state was already making such “investments,” it should make even more of them.
7. Taxes on “the rich” should be increased during a recession, to reduce the government’s budget deficit.
8. Taxes on “the rich” should also be increased during a business expansion, to ensure that they pay their “fair share” (that is, the great bulk) of total taxes and to reduce the government’s budget deficit.
9. If progressives perceive a “market failure” of any kind, the state should intervene in whatever way promises to create Nirvana.
10. If Nirvana has not resulted from past and current interventions, the state should increase its intervention until Nirvana is reached.

The foregoing progressive predispositions, and others too numerous to state here, provide the foundation on which the state justifies its current actions and its proposals for acting even more expansively. Progressives see no situation in which the best course of action requires that the government retrench or admit that it can do nothing constructive to help matters. They see the state as well-intentioned, sufficiently capable, and properly motivated to fix any social and economic problem whatsoever if only the public allows it to do so and bears the costs.

The Philippine social democracy version can be reduced into three: namely, change the leader, tax and regulate, and finally, throw money at the problem. Anything beyond these have been deemed as blasphemy.

I wrote about them here.

Understanding Political Terminologies 3: Frédéric Bastiat on Mercantilism

Why is it very easy to sell political crap? Because all one needs is to broach information that caters to heuristics and emotionalism.

In the case of mercantilism or protectionism, the great Frédéric Bastiat wrote of how the public can easily be swayed by falsehoods,

We must confess that our adversaries have a marked advantage over us in the discussion. In very few words they can announce a half-truth; and in order to demonstrate that it is incomplete, we are obliged to have recourse to long and dry dissertations.

This arises from the nature of things. Protection concentrates on one point the good which it produces, while the evils it inflicts are spread over the masses. The one is visible to the naked eye; the other only to the eye of the mind. In the case of liberty, it is just the reverse.

In the treatment of almost all economic questions we find it to be so.

You say: Here is a machine that has turned 30 workmen onto the street.

Or: Here is a spendthrift who encourages every branch of industry.

Or: The conquest of Algeria has doubled the trade of Marseilles.

Or: The budget secures subsistence for 100,000 families.

You are understood at once and by all. Your propositions are in themselves clear, simple, and true. What are your deductions from them?

Machinery is an evil.

Luxury, conquests, and heavy taxation are productive of good.

And your theory receives wide support in that you are in a situation to support it by reference to undoubted facts.

On our side, we must decline to confine our attention to the cause and its direct and immediate effect. We know that this very effect in its turn becomes a cause. To judge correctly of a measure, then, we must trace it through the whole chain of effects to its final result. In other words, we are forced to reason upon it.

To the unwitting public, if you tell lies that are big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.

And that’s why even centuries after being debunked or being refuted by classical economics and by classical liberals, the spirit of mercantilism has remained politically popular.

This only exhibits that because many seem to have hardly been capable to think beyond their emotions, they become instruments for oppression, especially through the tyranny of mob-rule (democracy), by scheming politicians and their institutional followers.

Even in the Olympics, Central Planning Fails

Why do Olympic games suffer from financial losses? Because Olympic planners think that they have it all worked out.

From the Telegraph,

-Large areas of empty seats seen in stadia for the second day running

-London 2012 chairman Lord Coe reveals students and teachers are also being called in at the last minute

-Every tout arrested had tickets sent to foreign VIPS

-Organisers Locog have begun an investigation into the ticketing fiasco

To the chagrin of political authorities, to cover on the scores of empty seats, students and soldiers had to be bussed in.

This is a familiar scene in the Philippines which we call the “hakot crowd”

Again from the same Telegraph article,

Last night, Team GB cyclist Geraint Thomas said: ‘It’s quite sad, seeing all the empty seats.’

Lord Coe revealed yesterday how troops, students and teachers were being drafted in to help end the embarrassing spectacle of empty seats at Olympic venues.

By discriminating against the markets, authorities had these coming to them after all

Professor Christopher Westley at the Mises Blog rightly points out,

The Olympics are essentially mercantile events in which planning takes place outside of market forces so as to achieve outcomes preferred not by consumers but by states. (Peter Hitchens argues here that this trend started with the 1936 Olympics in Berlin when Hitler and Goebbels transformed them into “grandiose and torch-lit” spectacles.) Regardless, the events in London are demonstrating once again what an LSE economist in the 1930s said about economics–that its “curious task” was “to demonstrate to men how little they know about what they imagine they can design.” Why did Sebastian Coe and his team think they could effect a better outcome than what would result from the price system? These are practical men, but even Keynes might admit that they are probably slaves of some defunct and incorrect economist.

So at the end of the day, financial losses extrapolates to the debasement of medallions for winners or may even lead to higher taxes for the unfortunate London residents whom has hosted such grand boondoggle.

Quote of the Day: Shun the Non-Believers

When you do important work, work that changes things and work that matters, it's inconceivable that the change you're trying to make will be met with complete approval.

Trying to please everyone will water down your efforts, frustrate your forward motion and ultimately fail.

The balancing act is to work to please precisely the right people, and just enough of them, to get your best work out the door.

Shun the non-believers.

This is from my favorite marketing guru Seth Godin.

This powerful marketing message seems highly relevant to the struggle for liberty and to the advocacy of the unpopular economic truths.

Will this Week Highlight the Climax for the Euro Debt Crisis?

Will the Euro debt crisis see its climax this week? The head of the Eurogroup Jean Juncker thinks so…

From Marketwatch.com

The head of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the countries sharing the common currency, their rescue fund and the European Central Bank will soon act to save the euro, according to a pre-release of an interview to be published Monday by Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

"We will decide in the coming days which measures to take," Mr. Juncker is quoted as saying.

Mr. Juncker indicated the European Financial Stability Fund and the ECB will buy Spanish government debt to bring down yields after a summit of euro-zone leaders in late June had paved the way for sovereign-bond purchases by the bailout fund.

"I have no doubt that we will implement the decisions of the last summit," Mr. Juncker said, according to the newspaper.

His statements seem to be the first official confirmation of media reports that European leaders are drawing up a plan of purchases of Spanish and Italian government debt by the ECB and the rescue fund.

"The euro countries have reached a point at which we have to make clear with all available means that we are strongly determined to ensure the financial stability of the currency union," the German daily quotes him as saying.

"The world is talking about whether the euro zone will still exist in a few months," Mr. Juncker said, according to Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

Despite a gamut of bailouts, Euro’s debt crisis has lingered since 2008 and have been worsening,

The belief that a political solution will arrest the crisis, like in the recent past, will likely be just another delaying the day of reckoning, that would go against the central designs of the political masters—Messrs. Junker, Draghi, Hollande, Ms. Merkel and the rest, and this includes team Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve, whom has been working closely with the ECB—to prop up the unsustainable political welfare-crony system.

But of course, real actions from central banks will have real effects in the marketplace and in the economy. And this is why the details of what they will do will greatly matter.

Global financial markets have priced in heavily the expectations of the coming massive bailout by the ECB.

So political actions will have to deal first with the market’s expectations. The failure of which may result to the magnified market tremors which could swiftly eviscerate gains we have seen in the recent days.

Next, financial markets have become extremely complacent and heavily dependent on steroids. Bad new has been interpreted as good news.

Growing signs of political desperation by Euro officials have only reinforced the market’s HOPE of a political fix from political narcotism (inflationism) even when unfolding events keeps us telling us the opposite.

Financial markets have been reduced to a branch of a grand casino according to ex-US President Reagan’s former budget director David Stockman

Not only will this mean sustained volatility of market pricing—out of the repeated price distortions from widespread interventions—such complacency amplifies the fat tail risks (or a market crash). Of course I hope that this won’t happen.But the risk environment or conditions says that this is a possibility.

But hope would not serve as a better guide for prudent investors, instead, we should prepare for the worst while hope for the best

Be very careful out there.

Video: I, Smartphone (Made Everywhere)

This is video is the modern day representation of Leonardo Read's must read classic I, Pencil.

Two points here:

One, nobody knows how to make a product on their own or the folly of self-reliance as peddled by politicians. This emphasizes the importance of the division of labor (or Prof. Kling's Patterns of sustainable trade and specialization).

Second, division of labor implies that products have been "made everywhere", which today, extrapolates to the global supply chain networks or "globalization"--which is why politically colored claims of "Made in China" have been utterly fallacious.