Bubbles Everywhere: Australian Banks fret over credit fueled property bubble

No, I am not saying this, the Australian banks are.

From the Bloomberg:

Australia’s biggest banks, whose lending standards helped the nation avoid a property crash during the global credit crisis, are raising concern with home loans helping to fuel record house prices.

The proportion of mortgages that represented more than 80 percent of a home’s value -- the loan-to-value ratio -- rose in the third quarter to the highest since the second quarter of 2009,data from the banking regulator show. Mortgages in which borrowers pay only interest also increased to the highest in at least five years, according to the figures.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2.25 percentage points rate reduction in the past two years is luring buyers counting on home prices, which jumped the most in three years in the 12 months through Oct. 31, to extend gains. As the proportion of risky loans climbs -- allowing some people to purchase homes who otherwise couldn’t -- lenders, home-buyers and mortgage insurers are more exposed to any decline in prices.

To give a perspective on what the article have been saying; when Australia’s interest rates had been 'pushed to the floor' in 2008, domestic credit provided by the banking sector markedly jumped.

Bank credit stands at 145.76% of GDP as of 2011 according to Trading Economics, this must be much higher today (update: 154.4% as per World Bank data 2012)

More signs of bubbles; Australian properties have have been transformed into objects of rampant speculation

From the same article. (bold mine)

Mortgages with loan-to-value ratios higher than 80 percent rose to 35 percent as of Sept. 30 at Australia’s four big banks -- Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Ltd., Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC) and National Australia Bank Ltd. (NAB) -- the highest since June 2009, according to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.

The average ratio at the major banks rose to 67 percent in the third quarter from 65 percent a year earlier and a low of 63 percent in the second quarter of 2009, according to Digital Finance Analytics, the data company.

“It’s not that we’ve changed any of our policies, but the mix of demand is changing,” Phil Chronican, chief executive officer of ANZ’s Australian business, said in an interview in Sydney on Nov. 27. “More people are trading up and people who trade up tend to go for higher loan-to-value ratios.”

ANZ’s average ratio increased to 70 percent in the six months to Sept. 30, from 64 percent a year earlier, according to regulatory filings.

The big four banks held 85 percent of the country’s A$1.2 trillion ($1.1 trillion) of outstanding mortgages in September, according to the banking regulator…

Aside from existing home owners trading up, investors are also piling in. In New South Wales, the country’s most populous state, investor mortgage approvals accounted for about 40 percent of all home loans by value, the highest since 2004, the RBA said in its semi-annual Financial Stability Review on Sept. 25. The average LVR on loans to this group has risen to about 80 percent from about 60 percent in 2009, according to Digital Finance.

Investors are betting on further capital gains after house prices started to rise in early 2013.

Australia’s property bubble (as measured by the NSW Sydney index as of March 2013) has coincided with a firming of the Aussie dollar…

This has partly been due to foreign funds chasing the property bubble…

 

The latter two charts represents the survey of foreign flows and the distribution of foreign flows in Australia based on a report conducted by the Financial Services Council and The Trust Company (2011)

And the property boom has been overvaluing the domestic factors of production. This has partly been manifested by the soaring of producer’s prices. The growth in Australia’s producer prices have been magnified since 2008

Australian productivity has grown by only 24% since 1998…

however, Australian wages has nearly doubled over the same period.

The differentials can be construed as the bloating of wage rates engendered by Australia’s bubble policies.

It’s not just a property bubble but could be a stock market bubble as well. The Aussie S&P ASX 200 now drifts at near recent highs post 2007. If measured by the ASX Ltd. or the Australian stock exchange, the firm's PE ratio stands at a dear 18.84 in the backdrop of zero bound rates

Properties and stocks which are titles to capital goods have been the main beneficiaries of credit inflation.

Bubbles can last until it collapses on its own weight or when the inadequacy of resources will get reflected on interest rates.

Yields of Australia’s 10 year bonds have been on an uptrend since Bernanke’s QE 3.0 in September of 2013

So Australia's banks have been right to worry, a sustained insurrection by global bond vigilantes threatens to expose on Australia’s massive malinvestments.

Bond Vigilantes: US Banks hoard Cash, shuns US Treasuries

Another very interesting development. US banks have reportedly shunned US Treasuries in favor of stashing cash.

From Bloomberg:

Never before have America’s banks been so wary of risking their cash deposits on U.S. government debt.

After holdings of U.S. debt surged to a record $1.89 trillion in 2012, lenders from Citigroup Inc. to Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) are culling for the first time in six years and amassing dollars. Banks’ $1.8 trillion of the bonds now equal less than 70 percent of their cash, the least since the Federal Reserve began compiling the data in 1973.

With net interest margins falling to the lowest since 2006, banks are spurning Treasuries and hoarding unprecedented amounts of cash on prospects that loan demand will revive as a strengthening economy leads the Fed to reduce its own debt purchases. Five years of cheap-money policies also have depressed yields and made it less attractive for banks to buy Treasuries as a way to bolster income.

Lowest government bond holdings on record…

Banks’ stakes of Treasuries and federal agency bonds have declined more than $80 billion in 2013, data compiled by the Fed show. That would be the first annual decrease since 2007. At the same time, cash held by banks has surged by a record $882 billion this year to an all-time high of $2.59 trillion.

Government bonds now represent 69 percent of banks’ cash, which would be the lowest on record and the first time lenders ended a year with a smaller proportion of U.S. debt relative to cash since 1980, the data show. Banks’ holdings of assets consisting primarily of municipal bonds, asset-backed securities, company debt and equity investments have also risen.

Some observations

US Banks have now been lending to Wall Street at a record pace. 

Banks holdings have rotated from USTs into cash but also partly into equities.

Banks appear to be sensing trouble with the US treasury markets as indeed cash assets of all commercial banks have spiked to unprecedented levels.

US treasuries (USTs) have mainly been supported by foreigners (mostly by the Chinese and the Japanese) which has staved off a bond market rout. (Data from the US Treasury TIC)

I argue that the behind the controversial Senkaku island dispute has been the politics of US Treasury holdings by China and Japan or the financing of the US government spending.

You see Japanese and Chinese record holding of USTs comes amidst a partial recovery from a near term decline in the overall purchases of USTs by foreigners. This means that in terms of foreign holdings, USTs has been essentially a Chinese-Japanese affair. 

Yet if the Chinese government makes good on her threat to trim holdings of USTs, along with a continuing decline of UST holdings by most of foreigners (ex-Japan), and if US banks persist to reduce exposure then this leaves the US Federal Reserve as the buyer of last resort.

The Fed now owns a third or 32.47% of the 10 year UST equivalent according to the Zero Hedge

This tell us that there will hardly be any taper, because a taper means a dearth of buyer of USTs which also extrapolates to a bond market disaster.

Lastly the above report seems as partial vindication to what I wrote on USTs 2 weeks back

Mr. Bernanke’s tapering bluff was called last September.

Aside from tapering expectations, rising rates of US treasuries (USTs) have been partly reflecting on a combination of the following factors

-inflationary boom gaining traction which has spurred accelerating demand for credit thus pushing up interest rates.

-erosion of real savings or the diminishment of wealth generators or growing scarcity of real resources due to the massive misallocation of resources prompted by central bank inflationist policies.

-diminishing returns of central bank policies where continued monetary pumping has led to higher rates.

-inflation premium, despite relatively low statistical CPI. Perhaps markets have been pricing inflation of asset bubbles

-growing credit risks of the US government

-Triffin Dilemma or Triffin Paradox where improving US trade deficits have been reducing US dollar liquidity flows into the global economy.

Any astute observer will realize that a single policy mistake can bring--the entire house of cards standing on a credit bubble--crumbling down.

US Black Friday Sale Disappoints

Very interesting. Stocks zoom to record levels as Black Friday holiday sales disappoints.

From Bloomberg:

The average U.S. shopper spent less during the Black Friday weekend than last year, according to a survey commissioned by the National Retail Federation.

Consumers spent $407.02 on average, a 3.9 percent decline from $423.55 last year, Washington-based NRF said in an e-mailed statement. From Thanksgiving Day through planned trips today, the number of Americans who shopped at stores and websites rose 1.4 percent to 141 million for total spending of $57.4 billion, according to the survey of more than 4,400 people by Prosper Insights & Analytics.

More signs of parallel universes brought about by central bank policies

China’s Bipolar Markets and Economy

The Chinese financial and economic sphere operates on a bipolar world or might I say "parallel universe".

Today, Chinese PMI data reveals of better than expected growth. Chart above from AAstocks.com From Bloomberg:

Chinese manufacturing growth beat analyst estimates in November, indicating the nation’s economic recovery is sustaining momentum amid government efforts to rein in credit growth.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index was 51.4, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday. That’s the same reading as October, which was an 18-month high, and exceeded 24 out of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A number above 50 signals expansion

This comes even as the Chinese government has compelled for a reduction in sectors with glut in capacity...

China in July ordered more than 1,400 companies in 19 industries to cut excess production capacity and the Communist Party’s reform document said local officials will be evaluated on controlling overcapacity.

The Hebei provincial government said last month it demolished iron and steel furnaces and Xingtai Longhai Iron & Steel Group Co., a unit of China’s biggest producer, Hebei Iron & Steel Group Co., has halted production because of operational difficulties, according to Shenzhen stock exchange filings from customer Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.

It is important to point out that the Chinese political economy has largely been state driven. Many of what seems as private enterprises are really a spin off of local government units which has contributed to the ballooning of China's shadow banking industry. 

Yet Chinese industrial production growth varies from the PMI data. 

While the PMI has been surging, after a big upside move in July from the earlier stealth stimulus applied by the government, Chinese industrial production has been static from August to October. So confidence shown in the PMI data seems as having been overstated (so far).

Meanwhile sanguine expectations in the manufacturing sector seems incompatible with soaring costs of credit. Yields of Chinese 10 bonds has been spiraling higher. Yields have reached 4.71% until last Friday’s last minute decline.

Spiking interest rates are having real economic impact. From another Bloomberg article:

Chinese companies’ borrowing costs are climbing at a record pace relative to the government’s, increasing the risk of defaults and prompting state newspapers to warn of a limited debt crisis.

The extra yield investors demand to hold three-year AAA corporate bonds instead of government notes surged 35 basis points last week to 182 basis points, the biggest increase since data became available in September 2007, Chinabond indexes show. That exceeds the similar spread in India of 120 basis points. The benchmark seven-day repurchase rate has averaged 4.47 percent in November, the highest since a record cash crunch in June and up from 3.21 percent a year earlier.

Even the state run media recently warned of a potential crisis. From the same article

Borrowing ratios at some Chinese corporations are already relatively high, and rising interest rates may cause a “partial debt crisis to explode,” the China Securities Journal said in a front-page commentary yesterday. The central bank should take a “mild” approach to deleveraging as the economy is still delicately balanced, said the Economic Information Daily.

Hmmm. "Partial debt crisis to explode"

Curiously higher rates has partly altered borrowing patterns by Chinese enterprises, as more companies shift to foreign currency denominated debt.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Asia's market for foreign-currency loans is booming.

Banks across the region are lending record sums in the U.S. dollar, the yen and the euro—the so-called G3 currencies—even as economic growth slows and bad debts continue to rise in places like China and South Korea.

Loans in these currencies amounting to $133.4 billion have been issued this year in Asia, excluding Japan, 54% more than a year earlier and more than in all of 2011, the record year for such loans, according to Dealogic, a data provider.

Companies in Asia typically borrow in foreign currencies for capital expenditures, transactions linked to commodities or to fund cross-border acquisitions.

In short, despite deteriorating credit conditions Chinese credit markets continue to blossom. The recourse to foreign debt exposes the Chinese economy not only to credit risks but to currency risks as well.

So far Chinese financial markets have ignored signs of escalating credit risks. The Shanghai index has been rapidly recovering.

The Yuan is at record highs while default risks has plummeted back to the ‘normal’ levels.

Interesting because like almost everywhere the risks from the frenzy in credit accumulation has largely been ignored.

Charts: US Stocks and The Greater Fool Theory; No Weekend Stock Market Commentary

I’m taking this week off from my weekly stock market outlook.

In gratitude to my readers, I will leave something for you to ponder on this weekend: Important charts depicting what seems as the greater fool theory in motion at the US stock markets. Remember, what happens to the US will most likely have a domino effect to the world.

Greater fool theory—buying assets in the hope that greater fools will buy the same assets at a much higher price—or as per Wikipedia.org—”a situation where the price of an object is not being driven by intrinsic values, but by expectations that irrational bidders for limited assets or commodities, will set the price”

Bullishness in investor sentiment has now reached extreme levels (Zero Hedge). The sustained upside movement has only strengthened the convictions of the bulls and the fools, luring more and more of them into a bidding spree.

Yet this appear to be signs of a ‘crowded trade’ where everybody’s "all in" and everyone's expecting higher prices from more fools buying at higher prices (endowment bias). 

Question is but what if there are lesser number of fools to sell to?

Who could be the fools?

Record US stocks have been driven mostly by retail/household punters (in billion of dollars).

Household buying of US stocks have also reached milestone highs, drifting slightly above the 2000 and 2007 levels (Yardeni.com).

The last 2 times US households furiously stampeded into the stock markets, bear markets followed (see pink rectangles). Remember the crash from the dot.com bubble bust and the US housing mortgage bubble bust? Again household buying has reached "peak" levels of 2000 and 2007.

Question is could the Bernanke-Yellen policies have transformed stocks into a “permanently high plateau” (to borrow from the late economist Irving Fisher)? 

Will this time be different?

What has financed such bidding frenzy from the bulls and the fools? The short answer is DEBT.

Record US stocks have now coincided with record margin debt.

Margin ‘real inflation-adjusted’ debt has currently surpassed the 2000 levels but has been slightly off the 2007 record highs.

Margin debt including free cash accounts and credit balances in margin accounts or Credit Balance as the sum of Free Credit Cash Accounts and Credit Balances in Margin Accounts minus Margin Debt  as per Doug Short, which are also at record levels, reveals how punters have increasingly used leveraged to push up stocks to record territory. 

It's more than just margin debt and investor credit. 

Systemic leverage in order to chase yields have been intensifying and broadening, from bond issuance to finance stock buybacks, near record consumer and industrial loans, stratospheric unprecedented levels for commercial real estate lending and more.

What have the bulls and the fools been buying?

Record stocks comes amidst declining EPS (Business Insider)…

…as well as record negative over positive eps announcements (Zero Hedge).

All these means that the fools have been chasing multiples rather than eps growth with escalating debt.

Will the current bonanza via a “don’t worry be happy” trade remain in favor of the stock market bulls and the fools?

Perhaps. Depending on how many more fools can be seduced into the frenzied pile up. Mania phases can have an extended period of euphoria. Manias signify the "peak" of the bubble cycles where convictions have been the strongest.

Nevertheless the farther the height of the serial increases, the bigger the accumulation of risk via more debt, the greater the fall.

Based on the “log periodic” pattern designed by economist Didier Sornette where bubbles reflect on “a widening gap between the increasingly extrapolative expectations of market participants and the prospective returns that can be estimated through present-value relationships linking prices and likely cash flows” current momentum indicates of an accelerating odds of a text-book stock market crash, according to fund manager John Hussman

Well such risks will be discarded and the ignored by the bulls and their fools because stock markets, for them, have been perceived as a one way street: "up, up, up and away!"—courtesy of the Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen Put, which some believe have worked as an elixir.

At the end of the day, let us see who will be holding the proverbial bag.

Indonesia Crisis Watch: USD-Rupiah Pierces 12,000 level

The US-Indonesia rupiah pierced on the 12,000 psychological threshold today

Intraday, the US-IDR closed at the highest level

Indonesia’s LCY 10 year bonds also fell again at the last minute.

Indonesia’s officials dismissed concern over the rupiah’s unhinging noting that this would “help local manufacturers increase their exports”

Unfortunately Indonesia’s stock markets hardly seemed to agree as the JCI slipped, albeit modestly.

The falling rupiah which means higher CPI inflation also extrapolates to a significant distortion of economic calculation for commercial or business enterprises. For instance in response to popular clamor, the Indonesian government pushed up minimum wages significantly, although varying at local levels.

Higher minimum wages means an increase in input costs which erodes on any advantage from a weaker currency.

This hasn’t just been an Indonesian story.

Thailand surprisingly cut interest rates yesterday which spiked up local stocks yesterday.

Unfortunately the zero bound rates policy appears to have only an overnight magical impact as the Thai SET fell by 1% today.

The good news is that the IDR plunge has not triggered a panic. Yet it remains to be seen how ASEAN financial markets will react if the rupiah and or if Thai’s stocks continue to substantially decline. 

Risks remains very high.

Senkaku Islands Dispute: The Risks from Political Brinkmanship

The US, Japan and China appears to be playing a dangerous geopolitical brinkmanship game.

From today’s headlines at the Inquirer.net

Days after China asserted greater military control over a swath of the East China Sea to bolster claims to a cluster of disputed islands, the US defied the move Tuesday as it flew two B-52 bombers through the area.

China, however, insisted Wednesday it has the capacity to enforce its controversial newly declared air zone over islands disputed with Japan, despite Beijing’s reluctance to intervene after American B-52 bombers flouted its rules.

The US said what it described as a training mission was not flown to respond to China’s latest military maneuver, yet the dramatic flights made clear that the US will not recognize the new territorial claims that Beijing laid out over the weekend.

There are several angles I see here

One these nations have been attempting to promote “nationalism” in order to justify government spending in their respective military industry, to “pump prime” their fragile economies.

If this is true then, then all these has been a smokescreen in favor of pushing the interests of the military industrial complex. (charts above from the Economist)

Second, since China’s central bank recently signaled that they may be scaling back on purchases of US treasuries (euphemism for financing of the US government which includes the military) because these “does not benefit any more from increases in its foreign-currency holdings”, the US taunting of China’s government at the disputed Senkaku islands could have been implicit threat on the Chinese to sustain such such financing arrangement or else…

As one would note, both Japan and China has been providing support to the US government by cushioning the impact of the bond vigilantes through record UST accumulations.

Based on the US Treasury’s TIC September data, Japan holdings of USTs has spiked to record levels while China’s drifts at record levels

So while we see these countries posture and debate on media, behind the scenes Japan and China appear as coordinating their support to the US government via the bond markets against the bond vigilantes.

So we have a strange case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

Third, the three crisis prone governments have earnestly been trying to divert the public’s attention from the real issue.

As shown above (via the Zero Hedge) despite the so-called 7+% economic growth in China, the PBoC has been rapidly expanding her balance sheet faster than the US.

And with unfulfilled expectations for real economic growth, despite the huge ballooning of central bank assets, governments need schemes to distract the public. And geopolitical brinkmanship with major political economies looks like a convenient way to achieve this.

Of course, it could all be a combination of the above

And we understand that all wars have been financed by inflationism.  

The problem is when games transform into reality.

Philippine statistical ‘bubble’ economy grows as expected

In discussing the convergence trade, here is what I wrote two weeks back (bold original)

The surge in banking loans was equally reflected on domestic liquidity or M3 which grew by 31% year on year.

So the BSP will achieve a $32k per capita income by continually inflating of bubbles via a massive build-up of debt or by borrowing tomorrow’s spending today.

This also means that statistical economic growth for the third quarter will likely remain at 7% or above.

Let us see where the latest (3rd Quarter) statistical growth has been attributed to… [note I will not depend on the NSCB's narration but rather on the data they presented.]

From the NSCB’s breakdown of the statistical economy based on expenditure type (at constant prices), durable goods powered growth…

In the durable equipment sector, transportation equipment has been instrumental in the attainment of this quarter’s 'strong' statistical economic growth.

The Transportation sector accounts for 57.8% of the gross capital formation category based on 3rd quarter output. Air Transports reported a stunning 23.9x (times) growth. Meanwhile railway transports posted a 25.2% growth rate and road vehicles grew by a modest 12.9%. Although the above numbers appear to be different here and here

Since the NSCB’s sources of data for transportation and communications are from National Statistics Office (NSO), Land Transportation Office (LTO), Philippine National Railways (PNR), Light Rail Transit Authority (LRTA), Philippine Postal Office (PPO), Philippine Air Lines (PAL), Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) and Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC), my guess is that airline companies may have added new planes or that the government has acquired non-military planes that has contributed to gist of the growth in the “fixed capital formation”.

On growth based on industry type, the services sector has again delivered the substance of this quarter’s statistical growth. 

The services sector has largely been fueled by Financial Intermediation and Real Estate Renting & Business Activities

Remember this chart where we saw a vibrant revival of banking loans to the same industries during August-September?

Meanwhile the agricultural sector has taken the second spot mainly led by fishing.

But what of the industry sector which trailed services and agriculture?  (note all of the above are based on constant 2000 prices)

The growth in the construction sector eased while manufacturing took leadership.

Now go back to the chart above from the BSP. One would note of a two month spike in manufacturing loans while construction loans 'dived' over the same period. Trends in the loan growth dynamic have been manifested on statistical growth.

I’d also like to point out that despite the so-called moderation in the growth rate of construction activities in the 3rd quarter, based on 1st up to 3rd quarter for the past 3 years, slope of growth in the construction activities has been ascending in a near vertical fashion.

The table above which represents the NSCB’s breakdown on the quarter on quarter growth in construction sector reveals the numbers.

How about household consumption? Well again, household consumption (via the HFCE), which represents the final demand, has grown less than the overall statistical growth.

In other words, supply-side growth continues significantly outpace demand. The continuing dynamic essentially leads to a widening of the chasm between supply side and demand side growth which extrapolates to an accumulation of more imbalances, brought about by a credit boom from zero bound rates. 

No bubble?

The Phisix (chart from technistock) appears to be celebrating what seems much of an expected outcome.

As I said last weekend:

Well the oversold markets will surely experience bounce. Mr Pacquiao’s victory or the coming announcement on Philippine GDP which I expect to be in line with the mainstream’s expectations given the late spurt of credit growth will have little do with it.

Again I’d rather watch what is happening to our neighbors.

The Inflation of Airline Frequent Flyer Miles

In response to the Fed policies, Airline companies in the US have been giving away less services by inflating frequent flyer miles. Or simply put; indirect price increases.

Simon Black of the Sovereign Man explains

Today, millions of passengers in the Land of the Free will take off their shoes and assume the “I surrender” pose inside a radiation machine that provides negligible benefit and maximal cost to taxpayers.

Our modern security theater is a stark contrast to the past. But there’s been something else happening over the last several decades that is even more insidious… and far less obvious.

In 1979, Texas International Airlines (the precursor to Continental) introduced the first modern frequent flier program. American Airlines soon followed, launching their AAdvantage frequent flier program in 1981.

When the program launched, you could upgrade to a first class seat on the Concorde for 20,000 miles (something that you couldn’t even do today). Today, an upgrade to first class between the US and Europe would set you back 50,000 miles, plus $900 in fees.

In fact, just about every mileage award category has been getting more ‘expensive’, particularly among the major US carriers. The majority of the increases have taken place in the last several years.

United Airlines, for example, is raising the number of miles required for most of its awards starting February 1st. The steepest is an 87% increase for first class award seats on United’s partner airlines flights to the Middle East.

A United economy class ticket to Hawaii will increase by ‘only’ 12%. And business class to Europe and Japan will increase 20%.

Just like central bankers with paper currencies, airlines are devaluing their miles.

They have created trillions of miles in the system, many of these through special gimmick promotional giveaways. We’ve probably all seen the ‘sign up for the new credit card and receive 25,000 bonus miles’.

But just like the real economy, rapidly increasing the money supply (airline miles) devalues the currency and creates inflation.

That’s exactly what’s happening here. Airline miles are worth less and less.

Read the rest here

Thanksgiving Treat: The Turkey Inflation

In the US and elsewhere, media and their ivory tower experts allege that statistical CPI inflation has been “low”.

But not for the Turkey which will grace the dinner tables of Americans in celebration of Thanksgiving day…

Notes the Zero Hedge: (bold original)

While shoppers will perceive the discounts on Black Friday as 'saving' them fortunes, the cost of the 2013 Thanksgiving Day dinner may be the most expensive ever. As the gorging commences, despite an entirely benign inflation in the eyes of the Federal Reserve, the prices of everything from chocolate chip cookies to ice cream are on the rise. But it is the centerpiece of the meal that is weighing on pocket-books. As Bloomberg's Michael McDonough notes, Americans are paying the most for whole frozen turkeys since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing data on the series in 1980.

Happy Thanksgiving.