A US Stock Market Black Swan in 2014?

A bubble represents a market process in response to government policies.

And as I have pointed out last year I call the topping process of a bubble cycle a Wile E. Coyote moment[1]

rising markets on greater debt accumulation amidst higher interest rates is a recipe for the Wile E. Coyote moment.

Markets can continue to run until it finally discovers that like Wile E. Coyote they have run past the cliff.

The Wile E. Coyote momentum continues to blossom in the US and may continue to flourish for as long as stock market returns outpaces the rate of increase in the interest rates or outruns the burden of financing from debt accumulation.

The point of establishing the Wile E. Coyote conditions is to understand the risk environment, and not to predict the timing of its inflection point, where the latter is the work of soothsayers.

Record US stocks are also being pushed by near record margin debt. As of November, based on 1995 US dollar and inflation adjusted chart, NYSE margins debt has been knocking on a record high[2].

Meanwhile corporate buybacks have breached past 2000 and 2007 highs largely funded by debt. On the other hand, retail investors continue to pile into the US stock markets, likewise beating the 2000 and 2007 highs.

As of January 6^th, based US flow of funds on US equities[3], households stampeding into the stock markets has largely been channelled through equity mutual funds and equity ETFs as institutional investors sold.

And this fantastic ramping up of record credit via various instruments has been accounted by Prudent Bear’s eagle eyed Doug Noland[4]. (bold mine)

The year 2013 saw record ($1.52 TN from Bloomberg) U.S. corporate debt sales. For the second straight year, investment-grade debt issuance set an annual record ($1.125 TN). Junk bond issuance ($360bn) set a new record, with record sales of payment-in-kind (PIK) and “cov-light” bonds. Junk-rated loan volumes surged to a record $683 billion, surpassing 2008’s $596 billion (according to Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ Leveraged Commentary and Data). Total global corporate bond issuance surpassed $3.0 TN. Global speculative-grade bond sales approached an unprecedented $500 billion (from S&P). Global IPO volumes jumped 37% from 2012 to $160 billion (from S&P).

At $233bn, private-equity buyouts reached their highest level since 2007 (Dealogic). The U.S. IPO market enjoyed its strongest issuance year since 2007. A total of 229 deals raised $61.7bn, with dollars raised up 31% compared to 2012. And it’s certainly worth noting that hedge fund assets increased more than $360 billion during the year to reach a record $2.70 TN (from Prequin), despite ongoing (“crowded trade”) performance issues.

This massive absorption of credit from the yield chasing crowd has been indiscriminate, as yield chasing has prompted junk bond issuance as noted above[5] to fresh records above the pre-Lehman levels. 

Such incredible record breaking streak where 2000 and 2007 highs have been dislodged, could this time be different?

Yet the speculative excess by mostly the households have driven up earnings based on Dr. Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio to proximate the 25x trailing earnings level which has been threshold “where secular bull markets have previously ended” notes STA Wealth’s Lance Roberts[6].

It’s interesting to see if the following dynamic will still hold: “if America sneezes, does the world catch a cold?”

And such massive credit creation reminds me of what essentially drives the potential 2014 Black Swan event. From the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises[7]

All governments, however, are firmly resolved not to relinquish inflation and credit expansion. They have all sold their souls to the devil of easy money. It is a great comfort to every administra­tion to be able to make its citizens happy by spending. For public opinion will then attribute the resulting boom to its current rulers. The inevitable slump will occur later and burden their successors. It is the typical policy of après nous le déluge. Lord Keynes, the champion of this policy, says: "In the long run we are all dead." But unfortunately nearly all of us outlive the short run. We are destined to spend decades paying for the easy money orgy of a few years.

Will a Black Swan event in the US occur in 2014?

[update: I adjusted for the font size]

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[1] See How Volatile Bond Markets May Affect the Phisix June 3, 2013

[2] Doug Short, NYSE Margin Debt Is Fractionally Off Its Real All-Time High December 30, 2013

[3] Yardeni Research, Inc. US Flow of Funds: Equities January 6, 2014

[4] Doug Noland 2013 in Review Credit Bubble Bulletin Prudent Bear.com December 27, 2013

[5] Wall Street Journal 'Junk' Loans Pick Up the Slack, January 9, 2014

[6] Lance Roberts Market Bulls Should Consider These Charts January 9, 2014

[7] Ludwig von Mises Come Back to Gold Mises.org April 25, 2013

Has the French Atlas Shrugged Moment Arrived?

In the dystopian classic one of the world’s best selling novel, Atlas Shrugged, written by the great philosopher, novelist and free market champion Ayn Rand, deepening government intervention in a society has led the wealthiest to refuse paying soaring taxes and to reject government regulations by shutting down vital industries and the economy.

It seems that we are witnessing a real time “Atlas Shrugged” moment in France such that even establishment media seem to acknowledge the gravely flawed political economic model.

The Newsweek recently published an article by Janine di Giovanni depicting the Atlas Shrugged moment entitled "The Fall of France".

Some excerpts (hat tip Cato’s Dan Mitchell)

Since the arrival of Socialist President François Hollande in 2012, income tax and social security contributions in France have skyrocketed. The top tax rate is 75 percent, and a great many pay in excess of 70 percent.

As a result, there has been a frantic bolt for the border by the very people who create economic growth – business leaders, innovators, creative thinkers, and top executives. They are all leaving France to develop their talents elsewhere…

This angry outburst came from a lawyer friend who is leaving France to move to Britain to escape the 70 percent tax he pays. He says he is working like a dog for nothing – to hand out money to the profligate state. The man he was pointing to, in a swanky Japanese restaurant in the Sixth Arrondissement, is Pierre Moscovici, the much-loathed minister of finance. Moscovici was looking very happy with himself. Does he realize Rome is burning?…

The curse of the welfare state…

But the past two years have seen a steady, noticeable decline in France. There is a grayness that the heavy hand of socialism casts. It is increasingly difficult to start a small business when you cannot fire useless employees and hire fresh new talent. Like the Huguenots, young graduates see no future and plan their escape to London.

The official unemployment figure is more than 3 million; unofficially it’s more like 5 million. The cost of everyday living is astronomical. Paris now beats London as one of the world’s most expensive cities. A half liter of milk in Paris, for instance, costs nearly $4 – the price of a gallon in an American store…

Part of this is the fault of the suffocating nanny state. Ten years ago this week, I left my home in London for a new life in Paris. Having married a Frenchman and expecting our child, I was happily trading in my flat in Notting Hill for one on the Luxembourg Gardens.

At that time, prices were such that I could trade a gritty but charming single-girl London flat for a broken-down family apartment in the center of Paris. Then prices began to steadily climb. With the end of the reign of Gaullist (conservative) Nicolas Sarkozy (the French hated his flashy bling-bling approach) the French ushered in the rotund, staid Hollande.

Almost immediately, taxes began to rise…

Productive citizens flee as the Santa Claus fund goes dry…

When I began to look around, I saw people taking wild advantage of the system. I had friends who belonged to trade unions, which allowed them to take entire summers off and collect 55 percent unemployment pay. From the time he was an able-bodied 30-year-old, a cameraman friend worked five months a year and spent the remaining seven months collecting state subsidies from the comfort of his house in the south of France.

Another banker friend spent her three-month paid maternity leave sailing around Guadeloupe – as it is part of France, she continued to receive all the benefits.

Yet another banker friend got fired, then took off nearly three years to find a new job, because the state was paying her so long as she had no job. “Why not? I deserve it,” she said when I questioned her. “I paid my benefits into the system.” Hers is an attitude widely shared.

When you retire, you are well cared for. There are 36 special retirement regimes – which means, for example, a female hospital worker or a train driver can retire earlier than those in the private sector because of their “harsh working conditions,” even though they can never be fired.

But all this handing out of money left the state bankrupt…

The most brilliant minds of France are escaping to London, Brussels, and New York rather than stultify at home. Walk down a street in South Kensington – the new Sixth Arrondissement of London – and try not to hear French spoken. The French lycee there has a long waiting list for French children whose families have emigrated.

Read the rest here

So no matter how mainstream media portrays improving statistics or rising financial markets as signs of recovery, in the real world, for as long as the government wages war on her productive citizens, real economic recovery will hardly materialize.

And considering France’s ballooning debt (measured by debt to GDP which stands at 90% as of 2012), soaring yields of French bonds (10 year as shown in the chart above from Bloomberg), which extrapolates to higher cost of servicing debt amidst economic stagnation, will equally make the highly levered French economy vulnerable.

Importantly, given the global dynamic of rising bond yields, France may serve as another potential trigger for a Black Swan event in 2014.

ASEAN Crisis Watch: Indonesian Bond Market Convulses, Rupiah and Stocks plummet, Thai’s Stock Market New Year Meltdown

I was in a shut down mode when Thailand’s stocks, as measured by the SET, met the new year or 2014 with a 5+% collapse.

The stock market crash had been in tandem with equally a crumbling currency, the Thai baht. 

The USD-Thai Baht has reached a 3 year high yesterday, with the gist of USD Thai baht spike in over just two months. The plummeting baht appears to be accelerating.

All these had mostly been attributed to outflows from political jitters

 

While politics serve as a visible ‘cause’, they are actually aggravating circumstances to Thailand’s hissing credit Bubble.

Thailand’s stunning New Year meltdown serves as a reminder of how fragile ASEAN markets has been.

On the other hand, since last year I have been posting on the growing risks from Indonesia’s sharply deteriorating financial conditions which I call as the Indonesian crisis watch (see here here and here)

Yesterday, Indonesia’s local currency government bond market collapsed, with 10 year yields soaring to a 2011 high.

The bond meltdown has been accompanied with the continued foundering of the USD-rupiah which has now reached a 5 year high.

Indonesian stocks as measured by the JCI likewise fell yesterday. 

In contrast to the SET, the JCI remains relatively resilient. Although the path of least resistance has been on a downside albeit at a moderate pace compared to her peers.

Finally yields of 10 year Philippine government LCY bonds spiked yesterday as the US Treasury counterpart has now drifted at the plus or minus 3% level. 

Has this been another "one off" event as the mainstream likes to portray? Or are these signs of the cracking of the convergence trade? 

The Philippine peso has been in chorus with her ASEAN counterparts as the USD-Php hits a 3 year high.

It should be interesting to see how rising domestic and foreign interest rates along with the steep fall in the Peso will affect the small but concentrated highly leveraged financial system.

Like China, ASEAN markets and economies serve as potential triggers for 2014 Black Swan event.

Ignore the above facts at your own peril.

Graphic of the Day: Fish Politics

Source/hat tip AEI’s Mark Perry

Property Bubbles Promotes Homelessness: China Edition

Property bubbles also reduces the disposable income of marginal fixed income earners who will have to pay more for rent and likewise reduces the affordability of housing for the general populace.

That’s how I earlier described the impact of property bubbles to a society which addicts of inflationism choose to ignore.

Well it appears that the property bubbles in China appears to be confirming my view.

From Reuters:

Zig-zagging left and right through a maze of dark, narrow corridors in a high-rise's basement, 35-year-old kitchen worker Hu has joined the many thousands of Chinese fleeing fast-rising property prices by heading down - down underground.

Hu lives here beneath an affluent downtown apartment building, in a windowless, 4 square-meter (43 square-foot) apartment with his wife. For 400 yuan ($65.85) a month in rent, there's no air-conditioning, the only suggestion of heat is a pipe snaking through to deliver gas to the apartments above and the bathroom is a fetid, shared toilet down the hall.

"I can't afford to rent a house," said Hu as he showed off his meager appointments. Living in basement apartments isn't illegal in China, but like anywhere else it is nothing to brag about and Hu, who guts fish for 2,500 yuan a month at a popular Sichuanese hotpot restaurant on the street above, declined to provide his given name. "If I weren't trying to save money, I wouldn't live here," he said.

Locals have dubbed Hu and his fellow subterranean denizens the "rat race" - casualties and simultaneously emblems of a housing market beyond the government's control.

More:

That's pushing more and more newly arrived urbanites underground. Of the estimated 7.7 million migrants living in Beijing, nearly a fifth live either at their workplace or underground, according to state news agency Xinhua. Beijing's housing authority refuted this statistic, saying in an email to Reuters that a government survey last year found only about 280,000 migrants living in basements and that only a small percentage of Beijing's basements were being used as dwellings.

Last month, authorities sealed Beijing's manhole covers after local media discovered a group of people living in the sewers below, with one, a 52-year-old car washer, reported by the local media to have been living there for at least a decade. The sewer dwellers were relocated and those not from Beijing sent back home.

Surging residential prices are both boon and bane to the government. China's booming property sector accounts for roughly 15 percent of GDP and heavily indebted local governments rely on land sales - selling land earns them roughly three times what they collect from taxes.

But rising prices are putting home ownership farther out of reach for most Chinese, worsening the gap between rich and poor and breeding social discontent.

Surging bond yields (which translates to interest rate increases)…

(Yields of China’s 10 year bonds from investing.com)

…along with spiraling debt (e.g. local government debt which includes the shadow banking system has reached $2.95 to $3.3  trillion) and skyrocketing property prices are ingredients to a bubble bust.

Even the Chinese government as I earlier pointed out (via state newspapers) has recently warned of a “limited debt crisis”.

China’s unwieldy debt conditions is just one of the potential triggers for a Black Swan event in 2014. 

Gary North: Inflation: The Economics of Addiction

I will start my 2014 post with a recommended read from Austrian economist Gary North on the economics of addiction to inflationism.

Inflation: of all the dangers to the free market economy, historically and theoretically, the greatest is this one, yet it is one of those subjects that remain wrapped in mystery for the average citizen. This elusive concept must be understood if we are to return to the free market, for without a thorough comprehension of inflation's mechanism and its dangers, we will continue to enslave ourselves to a principle of theft and destruction.

This essay is an attempt to compare the process of inflation to a more commonly recognized physiological phenomenon, that of drug addiction. The similarities between the two are remarkable, physically and psychologically. Nevertheless, it must be stressed from the outset that any analogy is never a precise scientific explanation. No analogy can claim to be so rigorously exact as to rival the accuracy of the original concept to which it is supposed to be analogous. It is, however, an excellent teaching device, and while it is no substitute for carefully reasoned economic analysis, it is still a surprisingly useful supplement, which can aid an individual in grasping the implications of the economic argument.

Before beginning the comparison, it is mandatory that a definition of inflation be presented, one which can serve as a working basis for the development of the analogy.

One workable definition has been offered by Murray N. Rothbard, who is perhaps the most reliable expert on monetary theory: inflation is "any increase in the economy's supply of money not consisting of an increase in the stock of the money metal." An even better definition might be this one, adopted for the purposes of exposition in this study: "any increase in the economy's supply of money, period." Thus, the level of prices is not the criterion in determining whether or not inflation is present. The only relevant factor is simply whether any new money is being injected into the system, be it gold, silver, credit, or paper.

Unfortunately, many economists and virtually the entire population define inflation as a rise in prices. The more careful person will add that this rise in prices is a rise in the overall price level of most goods in the economy, one which is not due to some national disaster, such as a war, in which the rise can be attributed to an increase in aggregate demand as a result of changed economic expectations. Other economists, even more precise, attempt to define inflation as an increase in the money supply greater than the increase of aggregate goods and services in the economy. Professor Mises himself, in his earliest study on monetary theory, employed a definition involving comparisons between the aggregate supply of money and the aggregate "need for money." But in later years, he abandoned this definition, and for very good reasons, as he has explained:

There is nowadays a very reprehensible, even dangerous, semantic confusion that makes it extremely difficult for the non-expert to grasp the true state of affairs. "Inflation," as this term was always used everywhere and especially also in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and of bank deposits subject to check. But people today call inflation the phenomenon that is the inevitable consequence of inflation, that is, the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been up to now called "inflation." It follows that nobody cares about inflation in the traditional sense of the term. We cannot talk about something that has no name, and we cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil. They try to keep prices low while firmly committed to a policy which which must necessarily make them soar. As long as this terminological confusion is not entirely wiped out, there cannot be any question of stopping inflation.

Read the rest here.

I strongly suspect that 2014 will be the year of the Black Swan (low probability, high impact events that have hardly been seen by the mainstream) or what in statistics is known as  the “fat tail distribution”. 

This stage will signify as the traumatic withdrawal syndrome phase for addicts of inflationism.

Mr. North describes this phase:

5. Shaking the Habit

Withdrawal -- the most frightening word in the addict's vocabulary. Depression -- the most horrible economic thought in the minds of today's citizens. Yet both come as the only remedies for the suicidal policies entered into.

To the addict, withdrawal means a return to the normal functioning of the body, a return to reality. The path to normalcy is a decidedly painful avenue. Withdrawal will not restore him to his pre-addiction condition, for too much has already been lost -- socially, physically, financially, spiritually. But he can live, he can survive, and he can make a decent life for himself.

For the inflationist economy, a cancellation, or even a reduction, of the inflation means depression, in one form or another. This is inevitable, and absolutely necessary. Prices must be permitted to seek their level, production must rearrange itself, and this will mean losses to some and gains for others. The inflationary effects of the monetization of debt, the pyramiding of credit, are then reversed. The man who deposited the $100 is pressed for payment by creditors, so he withdraws his money. The banks are faced with either heavy (and unfulfillable) specie demands, or at least with credit and currency withdrawals. The bank calls in its loans, sells its property, and begins to liquidate. The man who bad borrowed the $90 now must pay up, with interest. He goes to his bank, takes out the $90, and his bank has to call in the $81 it had loaned out. The $900 built on the original $100 disappears, again as if by magic. This is the process of demonetization of debt, and it is clear why there would be a drastic decline in prices, and why a lot of banks would be closed, some of them permanently.

The suffering imposed by depression is unfortunate, but it is the price which must be paid for survival. If the consequences of runaway inflation are to be avoided, then this discomfort must be borne. The depression, lest we forget, is not the product of a defunct capitalism, as the critics invariably charge. It is the restoration of capitalism. Free banking, even without the legally enforced one hundred percent reserve requirement, can never develop the rampant inflation described here. The inflation came as a direct result of State-enforced policies, and the State must bear the blame. Sadly, it never does. It accepts responsibility for the politically popular "boom" conditions, but the capitalists cause the "busts."

Such withdrawal phase, or the transitory phase where boom morphs into a bust, will be signaled by a progressive rise in interest rates (expressed via the tanking bond markets) which will greatly impact the incumbent deeply leveraged global financial and economic system.

Happy 2014!

Wishing you the best of 2014!



Source Colourbox.com

2013 Holiday: Blogging Lite

I will be out of town starting tomorrow and will likely refrain from touching the computers. This means I will be blogging lite until the first week of January 2014.

I would like to thank you for patronizing my blog. 

Enjoy the holidays!

Yours in liberty

Benson

Robert Ringer: The Curse of the Lottery

Free lunch has always been a seduction. Yet people hardly realize that there are always consequences to every action. This includes free lunch. Take for instance, in winning the lottery, the public sees only the 'winning' side, while ignoring the costs from such events.

The prolific self development author Robert Ringer explains

Here we go again, another centimillionaire via the Mega Millions lottery — $173.8 million after taxes.  The winner was fifty-six-year-old Ira Curry, who bought her ticket at an Atlanta newsstand.  A second winner, who bought his/her ticket at a gift shop in San Jose, California, had not yet come forward as of the time this article was being written.

Let’s hope that Ms. Curry doesn’t follow in the footsteps of the vast majority of past mega-lottery winners, whose lives became totally unraveled as a result of their newfound wealth.  In this regard, perhaps West Virginian Jack Whittaker is the poster man for past lottery winners.

Back in 2002, Whittaker was the winner of $315 million in the Powerball multi-state lottery.  Since he opted to take a one-time payout, Whittaker actually received “only” a little over $113 million after taxes.

The first reality of sudden wealth that Whittaker was confronted with was an endless parade of people with requests for money.  Some folks didn’t even bother to ask for a handout in person.  They just sent letters — fifty thousand of them! — telling him they needed some of his green stuff as soon as possible.

Whittaker forked over about $50 million before he came to his senses.  But when he backed away from his role as year-round Santa Claus, the mooches became angry.  A number of them even threatened him.

When their threats failed, many of the good folks in West Virginia started suing Deep Pockets Whittaker for a variety of alleged torts.  In fact, he’s counted about four hundred legal claims against him since he won the lottery.

Confused and intensely unhappy, Whittaker began carousing, drinking, and propositioning young gals in strip clubs.  His wife of forty-four years threw him out and, after giving away millions, he found himself with no friends.

But there was one glowing light in his life — his beloved granddaughter, seventeen-year-old Brandi.  Whittaker gave her four new cars and an allowance of $2,000 a week.  It was a real-life Beverly Hillbillies saga, only played out in West Virginia instead of California.

As one might have predicated, having that kind of cash in her pocket led Whittaker’s granddaughter to drugs.  Soon after that, her boyfriend, Jesse Tribble, died of a drug overdose in Whittaker’s home in September 2003.  Then, a little over a year later, Brandi, too, was found dead of an overdose.

Since then, things have only gotten worse for Whittaker.  Stating the obvious in a tearful 20/20interview, he said, “Money is not what makes people happy.”  Of course, every half-sober, mature adult already knows that.  But it’s important to understand that money also doesn’t automatically saddle a wealthy person with unhappiness.

As popular as the aphorism may be, money is not “the root of all evil.”  And, in fact, that’s not what the source of those words — the New Testament (Timothy, 6:10) — actually says.  Rather, it states, “For the love of money is the root of all evil.”  (My emphasis.)

Read the rest here.

This has not just been an isolated case, here is a list of 19 lottery winners who blew their winnings; some of them endured wrecked lives. 

This just shows how free lunches distort on people’s incentives by magnifying on the winner’s short term priorities or the quest for short term or instant gratification. Such collapse in self-discipline results to money taking over their lives. As a result, such windfalls in many occasions have led to adverse outcomes.

And to think of it, in many countries governments endorse or even operate lotteries

The Fed Tapers, Tremors on China’s Debt Market

Contra my expectations of another Fed poker bluff, the US Federal Reserve has made good her ‘exit strategy’ by “tapering” on her buying of financial assets from $85 billion a month to $75 billion in January of 2014

Yet this represents a token symbolism as the Fed’s balance sheet will continue to expand substantially (chart from Prof David Howden)

One should realize that the bond vigilantes have began to make their presence felt even way before the taper talk. Yields of US 10 year notes have been rising since July 2012. Bernanke’s QE 3.0 has even failed to stem this rise.

The taper talk only accelerated this trend.

Yet part of the reason why the Fed could have tapered is that as noted in the June 2013, “markets are forcing them to realign their actions lest lose credibility. Thus any of such act, if there should be one, will be marginal or will signify as token symbolism.”

Another way to look at this is that Ben Bernanke could be doing a Pontius Pilate of washing his hands from a prospective bubble bust. 

As I wrote at the start of this year, “Authorities of the FED will most likely evade the responsibility from the financial market bloodbath or meltdown that may ensue once interest rate substantially rises.  And like Pontius Pilate, they will likely be washing their hands and leave tightening to the marketplace.

And as I previously noted, ASEAN markets have substantially been weakening as partly revealed by the developments in the currency markets. 

Malaysia's ringgit, which has been the least affected so far, has also began to lose ground against the US dollar even prior to the taper. 

Indonesia’s rupiah has been free falling against the USD. 

The USD-Thai baht appear to be testing new highs. 

The Philippine Peso continues to fall vis-à-vis the US Dollar as the stock market has entered the bear market zone for the third time since June.

Media wants to blame taper for the region’s woes. But it has been more than just taper. There seems to be renewed tremors on China’s intractable and unsustainable debt markets. 

(chart from zero hedge)

This fresh report from Marketwatch

Interest rates in China's money markets jumped Friday to levels last seen during a crippling cash crunch this summer, as banks continue to struggle to raise funds in the interbank market.

The borrowing costs initially fell early Friday after the central bank said Thursday that it had "recently" injected cash to try to ease stress, but rates later rose higher. Traders said it remains difficult to borrow in the interbank market despite yesterday's central bank pledge to offer liquidity.

 

I have noted in the past that any rally from China’s supposed reforms will be suspect because of the clear and present danger posed by her fragile debt status.

From my post last November:

Yet the Chinese political economy and her financial markets will have to face vast immediate or short term challenges first. And the ultimate  challenge is how to deal with her overleveraged economy.

China’s stock markets have reversed coursed, and is being drubbed as of this writing where the Shanghai index has slumped by 1.76%. This has not been the first time. The initial episode was in June this year.

The question is will the tremors morph into a debt implosion?

Bottom line: The Fed’s taper has been used as a convenient scapegoat on what has been truly a regional if not domestic dynamic.

Such rationalization is a sign of denial and the self-attribution bias.

And here is another prediction. Once US stock market bubble crumbles, expect the Fed to reverse course from tapering into massive expansion.

To Subscribers: Feed Burner Problems

To my blog's subscribers via email and RSS Feed Burner feeds

One my latest articles unfortunately exceeded the allowable 512k limit for Feed Burner to process the sending of email, and I think includes RSS, to subscribers.

So no email updates has been sent since Sunday December 15th. (updated to add: I noticed that this has affected my blog's post at Before It's News too)

I wasn’t aware of the limits in blog postings until this.

I apologize to my subscribers. 

I have tried to apply Feed Burner’s troubleshooting recommendations, which I hope, and pray, will work.

Thank you for your understanding

Yours in liberty

Benson

China Buys Record US Treasuries; Keeps Financing US military

The Chinese government and the private sector bought record amounts of US treasuries last October.

From the Wall Street Real Time Economic Blog

China scooped up more Treasury debt in October than any other foreign investor, a sign recent U.S. fiscal troubles haven’t tainted the Treasury bond market’s status as a global safe harbor.

China boosted its Treasury debt holdings by $10.7 billion in October to $1.3045 trillion, according to the latest monthly capital flows data released by the Treasury Department on Monday. Foreign investors overall added $24.4 billion in Treasury debt holdings in October. China primarily bought T-bills due in one year or less, known as T-bills with $8.4 billion added in October.

China’s overall holdings of Treasurys at the end of October marks the second highest level following a record high of $1.3149 trillion set in July 2011, according to Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC. China is the largest foreign owner of Treasury debt.

The Chinese accumulation of USTs has now reached $1.3045 trillion. 

The US government has earmarked $633 billion for her defense budget in 2014. This can be as interpreted as the Chinese government partially financing the US military.

Here is the 2012 global budget on military spending

US defense budget has been projected to keep rising.

Question is why does the Chinese government continue to finance America’s budget (or military spending) if both countries have been really at odds with each other?

Of course, the report is as of October, which is prior to the PBoC’s announcement last November that their accumulation of USTs may be put on hold.

Could the PBoC’s threat to decrease funding of the US debt be reason behind the recent political brinkmanship by the US on China’s declared Air Zone?

Chinese buying of USTs has also helped in keeping the bond vigilantes at bay last October. Yields of 10 year UST notes fell in October.

So the American government significantly depends on the foreign buying, particularly from China and Japan, to keep her debt musical chairs ongoing, yet media and politicians try to camouflage on these.

This becomes even more accentuated as US banks have been reported to have been reducing their holdings of USTs. 

And in the absence of US banks and foreign buying, USTs will become almost entirely a US Federal Reserve dynamic.  The FED now owns 33% of the outstanding 10 year USTs, according to the Zero Hedge. Fed holdings of USTs will significantly affect the capital standards required for the banking and financial system

So it has been a Dr.Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when it comes to the bilateral relationship between China and the US, as geopolitics and financing appear to be worlds apart.

As I have been saying, the theatrics in arguing and posturing over uninhabited islands seem to be meant at justifying more military spending (through inflationism) by the incitation of nationalism.

And nationalism based rationalization of defense spending it has been. The Japanese government recently approved an increase to her military spending budget… 

From Reuters:

Japan will boost its military spending in coming years, buying early-warning planes, beach-assault vehicles and troop-carrying aircraft, while seeking closer ties with Asian partners to counter a more militarily assertive China.

The planned 2.6 percent increase over five years, announced on Tuesday, reverses a decade of decline and marks the clearest sign since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office a year ago that he wants a bigger military role for Japan as tension flares with China over islands they both claim…

The policies, including a five-year military buildup and a 10-year defense guideline, call for stronger air and maritime surveillance capabilities and improved ability to defend far-flung islands through such steps as setting up a marine unit, buying unarmed surveillance drones and putting a unit of E-2C early-warning aircraft on Okinawa island in the south.

Japan will budget 23.97 trillion yen ($232.4 billion) over the coming five years for defense, up from 23.37 trillion yen from the previous five years.

Who will benefit?  No other than the US military complex…

U.S. contractors would be major beneficiaries of Abe's increased spending. These include V22 Osprey maker Boeing Co, lead F-35 fighter-jet contractor Lockheed Martin Corp, missile-fabricator Raytheon Corp, and Northrop Grumman Corp, which builds the Global Hawk unarmed drone.

Another corporate winner could be Britain's BAE Systems PLC, which through its American subsidiary, U.S. Combat Systems, is a major supplier of "amtrack" assault amphibious vehicles to the U.S. Marines.

You see, wars signify as good business, particularly for the politicians and their private sector allies. All that is needed is public approval. And to do this governments drum up nationalism by creating conflicts.

Of course governments also use wars as diversion from economic malaise.

The risk is that when the pantomine transmogrify into reality.

Charts of the Day: Incredible Bubbles in Twitter and Moncler

FT Alphaville’s Paul Murphy has been horrified by the following charts which he calls as “this is nuts”.

Twitter….

Why?

Because “Twitter is valued at just 48 times 2013 sales”!

Next, Italian skiwear maker Moncler a company that specialises in €1,000 jackets.

Moncler’s stock leapt 50% in yesterday’s initial board listing

Why has Mr. Murphy been terrified with Moncler?

Well because markets had been “valuing the company somewhere north of ¢3.6bn’'” when “Revenue last year was ¢490m”

I would be running scared too…