French GDP Shrinks Amidst Surging Stock Market

More signs of today’s financial market-real economy disconnect or the parallel universe.

I earlier posted about the "surprise" recession in Japan, in spite of the “Abenomics” (aggressive monetary and fiscal interventionism), which has bizarrely been viewed by media as justifying more stimulus; after all previous attempts failed.

Add to this the latest development: the contraction in the French economy

From Bloomberg.com

The French economy shrank in the fourth quarter as manufacturers slashed thousands of jobs and President Francois Hollande struggled to keep the nation from falling back into recession for the first time since 2009.

Gross domestic product dropped 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months when it climbed 0.1 percent, the national statistics office Insee in Paris said today in an e-mailed statement. Economists had forecast a 0.2 percent drop, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. GDP fell 0.3 percent from a year earlier.

France, like others among the 17 nations using the euro, is suffering in the wake of the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Yet while neighboring Germany is showing signs of recovery in confidence, exports and manufacturing, Hollande is grappling with tens of thousands of job cuts in companies such as Renault SA and an economy that has barely grown in more than a year.

Whether seen from quarter on quarter…

or annualized…

the French statistical economy has been deteriorating since 2011. (both charts from tradingeconomics.com)

But the French equity benchmark the CAC 40 apparently sees things starkly different from main street. (chart above from stockcharts.com)

One cannot really expect any significant real economic recovery when the Hollande regime has been on an onslaught against capital via class warfare policies and via various economic interventionism. This means that much of the French asset inflation will depend on the continuing bubble blowing policies by Mr. Draghi and his team at the ECB.

Nonetheless if the economic contraction deepens this may lead to a French debt crisis that may spell doom for the ill-fated EU project.

How Regulations Deter Investments: The China-Europe Story

Many Chinese firms including State Owned Enterprises (SoE) have been considering to invest in Europe as the latter eyes $560 billion of Chinese FDIs in 5 years.

Unfortunately regulatory barriers have been a huge turn off

From Reuters:

But getting your head around European laws and visa restrictions, as well as the fear that tough economic times could spark more political instability, make Europe hard to navigate for Chinese firms.

In fact the surveyed firms perceive Africa and the Middle East as having a more favourable business environment than the EU.

Chinese firms find EU law particularly troublesome because there is no unified inbound investment approval process and some member states have their own security reviews…

Six in 10 of the firms surveyed were SOEs and the most popular EU country for Chinese investment was Germany, with France a distant second.

Chinese firms asked for more support with the operational issues they face from policymakers in Europe and back home.

Regulatory obstacles can also signify as forms of disguised protectionism via technical barriers to trade as product or safety standards as well as people protectionism which limits flow of people.

The European crisis will hardly be resolved until real reforms to promote a business friendly environment or by the liberalization of the economy.

Also the above also reflects on the Africa’s ‘globalization’ boom story which has been attracting lots of Chinese investments. Chinese FDI reportedly zoomed to $14.7 billion in 2012 up by 60% from 2009 (ChinaUSfocus.com)

Symptoms of Welfare Crisis: French Actor Gérard Depardieu Joins Ballooning Lists of Tax Exiles

French actor Gérard Depardieu joins the growing list of wealthy French residents fleeing “soak the rich” politics.

The increasing number of so-called "tax exiles" is one of the major symptoms of the chronic disease called the welfare state crisis.

From the Telegraph.co.uk 

French actor Gérard Depardieu has set up legal residence in a Belgian village just over the French border to escape his country's punitive taxes, the local mayor has confirmed.

The 63-year-old star has bought an unglamorous-looking former customs official's house in the village of Nechin, a stone's throw from the nearest French town of Roubaix.

The corpulent screen icon is the latest rich Frenchman to flee the country ahead of a new tax of 75 per cent on all earnings over one million euros - around 850,000 pounds. Belgium's top rate is 50 per cent.

Around a third of the 2,800-strong population of Nechin was already French, the village mayor Daniel Senesael said.

The Depardieu case once again exhibits of how people’s incentives are shaped by social policies.

Apparently new repressive tax policies have breached Mr. Depardieu’s tax paying tolerance threshold level for him to consider voting with his feet and become a "tax exile". 

This could be seen as the curse of the Laffer curve.

Obviously the current tax policies have been meant to preserve the nation’s unsustainable welfare state. As this Op ED from Forbes.com notes,

In 2009, 11.2 million French persons received welfare payments, out a total population of 65.3 million. This amounted to $78 billion in payments. Moreover, these 11 million beneficiaries have families (parents, spouses, children); thus, more than 35 million people are actually benefiting directly or indirectly from welfare payments, which is more than 50 percent of the French population.

France’s welfare state may have seemed to work before, when there had been enough resources from productive citizens for the government to forcibly redistribute. But such era's curtains have been coming down.

Demographical forces particularly declining fertility rate amidst higher life expectancy, diminishing economic freedom and increasing politicization of the marketplace has led to a marked decline in relative global competitiveness according to the World Economic Forum. 

All these have combined to reduce the nation’s capability to finance the bulging welfare state.

And repressive tax policies have been the recourse of increasingly desperate French politicians wishing to maintain a highly fragile welfare based system based on debt and taxes. 

Yet myopically imposing stratospheric taxes on the rich seems to be backfiring as manifested by the expanding number of tax exiles. 

This seems similar to the recent experience in the United Kingdom, where 2/3 of the rich has recently disappeared.

Worst, aside from a growing anti-business environment from politics, the welfare state has been promoting a deepening culture of dependency. 

France has fallen to a poverty trap, says the same Op Ed from the Forbes.com, 

Since work cannot significantly bring a real improvement in daily life, it is better to stay “poor” and do nothing, which is not rewarding. Assistantship becomes more important than entrepreneurship.

A looming French debt crisis will likely represent as the proverbial final nail in the coffin for the centralization fantasies of the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels which should lead to more political instability in the region.

I worry that the risks of war is greater in the Eurozone (than in Asia) which may be triggered by the EU’s abrupt disintegration. 

And another thing. Here is another symptom of French entropy; there have been proposals for scheduled lighting outrages or a lighting ban in Paris, which has been popularly known as the "City of Lights", in order to "save energy". Beautiful Paris now a victim of politics.

Asian Banking: China and Asian Banks Fill Void Left by European banks

Nature abhors a vacuum.

In Asia, the Bank of International Settlements recently remarked that China and Asian banks filled the void left by retrenching European banks

The Central Banks News notes…

A pullback by Swiss and euro area banks from Asia-Pacific has been countered by an expansion of local banks, including Chinese and offshore centers, resulting in a continuous rise in international credit to the booming region, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) said.

Fears of a lack of funding in Asia-Pacific due to the retrenchment of European banks after the global financial crises and the euro area’s debt crises thus never materialized….

The statistics…

Foreign lending to Asia Pacific rocketed by 41 percent, or $613 billion to total outstanding claims of $2.1 trillion by mid-June 2012 from mid-2008, just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, BIS said in its December quarterly review.

This expansion is in stark contrast to a drop in international lending to emerging Europe of 14 percent, or $230 billion, and a more modest increase in lending to Latin America of 24 percent, or $254 billion, in the same period.

In Asia Pacific, the total claims of euro area banks shrank by an estimated 30 percent, or around $120 billion, between mid-2008 and mid-2012 and their share of foreign lending fell from 27 percent  to 13 percent by mid-2012, BIS said.

More stats…

Drawing on other sources, such as Bankscope, BIS found that the unconsolidated total assets of Chinese banks’ foreign offices in Asia (excluding Singapore) grew by $135 billion, or 74 percent, from 2007 to 2011.

And based on data from Dealogic, BIS learned that Asian banks, including those from Hong Kong and Singapore, increased their syndicated loans to emerging Asia Pacific by 80 percent, or $223 billion, from 2007 to 2001. Asian banks' share of total signings rose to 64 percent from 53 percent.

Insights to draw from the above.

Unlike mainstream thinking, Chinese and Asian banks’ picking up of where European banks vacated signifies as spontaneous market action at work. This has essentially dissipated “fears” over the lack of funding. Again, nature abhors a vacuum.

The withdrawal of European banks in Asia may perhaps be read as “home bias”. Due to the ongoing crisis, European banks may have taken a defensive posture or may have reconfigured their corporate strategies to optimize on their competitive advantages on the domestic arena or has been made to raise capital by reducing expenses and by taking lesser external risks.

Yet such void presented an economic opportunity for Chinese and Asian banks. The report does not indicate that the actions of Asian banks have been under the directives of respective governments.

Also, the increasing role of China’s banks in providing financial intermediation to Asia has been consistent with her government’s push to promote the yuan as an international reserve currency. Deepening trade and financial relations and exposures will help promote regional currency based transactions.

On the other hand, this again reveals of the paradox between China’s militant regional (territorial claims) policy and economic and financial relations with the region—another instance of Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde relationship.

Importantly, this report shows of the deepening trend of financial integration in the region. The implication is that regional markets will be more correlated and more intertwined which should optimize the region’s economies of scales and hasten the financial and economic development

Alternatively, greater interconnectivity and interdependence infers to greater contagion risks.

Southern Europeans Flee to Germany

The crisis affected European nations or the PIGS (Portugal Italy Greece and Spain) have not just been enduring capital flight from fears of prospective devaluation by a forced exit, but likewise have seen a mass exodus from residents.

As I earlier pointed out, many European emigrants seem to have opted for emerging markets, meanwhile fresh reports tells us that many others have been flocking into Germany at a steepening rate.

From the Wall Street Journal

The influx of Southern Europeans into Germany has gathered pace in recent months, as a growing number of Greeks, Spaniards and Portuguese ventured north to escape deepening recession and growing social tensions.

The biggest increase came from Greece. The number of Greeks moving to Germany jumped 78% in the first half of 2012 from a year earlier, Germany's statistics office said.

In all, more than 16,000 people moved to Germany from Greece between January and June, an acceleration of a trend that began in 2010 after the Greek crisis began. The number of immigrants to Germany from Spain and Portugal was up by 53% for each country.

The trend bodes ill for countries on Europe's southern periphery at a time of worsening economic malaise. Many of those leaving are young professionals with valuable skills. Their departures could have long-term consequences for countries such as Greece and Portugal as they struggle to recover.

"There are absolutely no jobs here—that's the main reason why people move away," said Charalampos Koutalakis, a politics professor at the University of Athens.

Jobs are symptoms of a deeper systemic malaise.

On the one hand, the productive class have been finding diminished economic opportunities from which to go about or to work on, given the political trends of deepening financial and economic repression that has led to the asphyxiation of the business and entrepreneur class

Such includes the risks of the erosion individual savings which has prompted for capital flight—again from the perceived risk of more inflationist policies, the risks of an implosion of the banking system and a wider confiscatory tax dragnet for these insolvent and desperate nations.

On the other hand, the parasitical class have been fighting to retain their entitlements which have been bringing about greater political risks.

Picture from Spiegel Online

Strikes and demonstrations in protest of so-called “austerity” have only been intensifying social frictions that have sparked political violence. This has only worsened the investment climate that has brought Europe down to its knees through a double dip recession.

"The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money [to spend]" remarked former UK’s PM Margaret Thatcher. This has been the zeitgeist of the social feud in Europe as welfare and bureaucrats bitterly contest with the ruling political class and the privileged and protected (crony) bankers on how to divvy up the residual spoils from an unsustainable system of mandated plunder.

And for the citizens who refuses to partake of political of the struggles, and who may have chosen to stay or who may have been trapped by the inability to migrate, the desire to normalize life have led to a booming informal economy which now averages 17.3% of the euro GDP or EUR 1.5 trillion.

As I have been pointing out, the informal economy seems like guerrilla capitalism operating under business or investment hostile or adverse political landscape

Bottom line: People respond to developing political trends or political risks. A political trend towards economic repression leads to violence, to capital flight, to the informal economy and to emigration.

Chart of the Day: Europe’s Double Dip Recession

Political solutions in the Eurozone, meant to preserve the status quo for the political establishment, has been worsening economic conditions as industrial production has rolled over even in major nations as Germany and France.

Writes Dr. Ed Yardeni (chart also from Dr. Yardeni’s Blog)

The Euro Mess remains as messy as ever. However, investors have been less concerned about a financial meltdown in Europe ever since ECB President Mario Draghi volunteered at the end of July to do whatever it takes to avert a euro cliff. Furthermore, the Europeans continue to kick Greece down the road rather than force it out of the euro zone. Nevertheless, Europe is sinking deeper into a recession. That’s becoming a more significant concern to investors I’ve talked with recently, especially if the US economy falls off the fiscal cliff.

Particularly unsettling yesterday were massive and widespread anti-austerity protests across Europe. The strikes and demonstrations, some involving hundreds of thousands of people, hit more than 20 countries in the EU, disrupting airports and ports, closing roads and public transportation, and shutting some essential services. The biggest protests were in Portugal, Spain, Greece, and Italy. The union-led protests--called "European Day of Action and Solidarity"--were mostly peaceful, but turned violent in Lisbon, Madrid, and Rome.

Yet political solutions (bank and sovereign bailouts, ECB’s interventions, surging regulations, higher taxes and etc…) will not only hamper economic recovery, they will lead to more social frictions which increases the risks of the EU’s disunion—as evidenced by the snowballing secession movements—and of the escalation of violence.

Graphic of the Day: When History Repeats….

This striking chart demonstrates why there have been patterns of similarities in history…

Writes Simon Black at the Sovereign Man (bold mine)

But it’s not just debt burdens that are problematic. ‘Rich’ countries in the West are also rapidly debasing their currencies, spawning tomes of regulatory impediments, restricting the freedoms of their citizens, aggressively expanding the powers of the state, and engaging in absurd military folly from Libya to the South China Sea.

Once again, this is not the first time history has seen such conditions. In our own lifetimes, we’ve seen the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the tragi-comical hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, and the unraveling of Argentina’s millennial crisis. Plus we can study what happened when empires from the past collapsed.

The conditions are nearly identical. Is our civilization so different that we are immune to the consequences?

Probably not. And the cycle that has befallen so many great powers before us– decline, collapse, turmoil, and reset– will likely happen in our time too.

But it’s not the end of the world. Not by a long shot.  It’s a complete reshuffling of the deck. A brand new game with brand new rules. And the old way of doing things (like printing money backed by nothing) will be resigned to history’s waste bin.

One of the things that we see frequently in history is that this transition occurs gradually, then very rapidly.

Think about the Soviet Union, which you may recall. One day, they were the greatest threat to the planet. The next day, the wall came down. It happened so quickly. It’s like what Hemingway said about bankruptcy– it happens slowly at first, then all at once.

Unfortunately we don’t know where we are along this path. And we won’t know until we’re over the cliff on the way down. Everything will feel normal until then.

The repetition of crises had been the outcome of the short term obsession of attaining political goals mostly through economic and political repression.

Thus it is equally nonsense to assert debt by itself creates all these troubles.

For instance this self-contradictory claim by populist analyst John Mauldin…

As an aside, it makes no difference how the debt was accumulated. The black holes of debt in Greece and in Argentina had completely different origins from those of Spain or Sweden or Canada (the latter two in the early '90s). The Spanish problem did not originate because of too much government spending; it developed because of a housing bubble of epic proportions. 17% of the working population was employed in the housing industry when it collapsed.

…who earlier admits that

Debt (leverage) can be a very good thing when used properly.

The reality is that debt can be distinguished through productive and consumptive activities where debts from consumption (welfare, government spending) and malinvestments (for instance convergence of interest rates and moral hazard from policies in the euro which brought about a bubble) have all been a result of interventionism or emanates from political policies that leads to business cycles or bubbles.

In a paper submitted to the classical liberal organization, the Mont Pelerin Society, which recently held a meeting in Prague, Terry College of Business University economics professor George Selgin gives a terse but insightful dynamic of the Euro crisis, (bold mine) 

Philip Bagus (2012) explains the particular course by which Greece was able to take the European Monetary Union hostage. Banks throughout the Eurozone, he says, bought Greek bonds in part because they knew that either the ECB or other Eurozone central banks would accept the collateral for loans. Thus a Greek default threatened, first, to do severe damage to Europe’s commercial banks, and then to damage the ECB insofar as it found itself holding Greek bonds taken as collateral for loans to troubled European banks.

In short, in a monetary union sovereign governments, like certain banks in single-nation central banking arrangements, can make themselves “too big to fail,” or rather “too big to default.” As Pedro Schwartz (2004, p. 136-9) noted some years before the Greek crisis: “[I]t is clear that the EU will not let any member state go bankrupt. The market therefore is sure that rogue states will be baled [sic] out, and so are the rogue states themselves. This moral hazard would increase the risk margin on a member state’s public debt and if pushed too could lead to an Argentinian sort of disaster.

Indeed, the moral hazard problem as it confronts a monetary union is all the worse precisely because sovereign governments, unlike commercial banks, can default without failing, that is, without ceasing to be going concerns. This ability makes their ransom demands all the more effective, by making the implied threats more credible. A commercial bank that tries to threaten a national central bank using the prospect of its own failure is like a suicide bomber, whereas a nation that tries to threaten a monetary union is more like a conventional kidnapper, who threatens to harm his innocent victim rather than himself.

Next, it is not debt alone, but rather attempts at the preservation of the status quo which has been founded on unsustainable political-economic premises through political and financial repression which makes conditions all the worst.

This means that the popularity of absolving culpability of those responsible for them, the “inattentiveness” to genuine conditions and or the cognitive fallacy of selective perception out of political bias or economic ideology signifies as principal reasons of the recurrence of patterns in history. 

This block excerpt from philosopher George Santayana gives as some useful lessons; from REASON IN COMMON SENSE Volume 1) [bold mine]

Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. 

In the first stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted; it misses progress by failing in consecutiveness and persistence. This is the condition of children and barbarians, in whom instinct has learned nothing from experience. In a second stage men are docile to events, plastic to new habits and suggestions, yet able to graft them on original instincts, which they thus bring to fuller satisfaction. This is the plane of manhood and true progress. Last comes a stage when retentiveness is exhausted and all that happens is at once forgotten; a vain, because unpractical, repetition of the past takes the place of plasticity and fertile readaptation. In a moving world readaptation is the price of longevity. The hard shell, far from protecting the vital principle, condemns it to die down slowly and be gradually chilled; immortality in such a case must have been secured earlier, by giving birth to a generation plastic to the contemporary world and able to retain its lessons. Thus old age is as forgetful as youth, and more incorrigible; it displays the same inattentiveness to conditions; its memory becomes self-repeating and degenerates into an instinctive reaction, like a bird's chirp.

More Financial Repression in Europe: Tobin’s Tax

Well Europe seems to see only taxation as a way out of their problems which are meant at preserving the status quo.

Eleven countries in the EU have proposed to impose a Tobin’s Tax or Financial Transaction Tax

From Reuters.com, 

A plan by a group of euro zone countries to introduce a tax on financial transactions threatens to drive more trading to London from centres such as Frankfurt, exacerbating divisions in Europe as it struggles to overcome an economic crisis. 

On Tuesday, 11 countries agreed to press ahead with a tax set to fall on the trading of shares, bonds and derivatives, although it may take up to two years before the necessary legislation is in place and the scheme starts.

Commonly known as a "Tobin tax" after Nobel-prize winning U.S. economist James Tobin, who proposed one in 1972 as a way of reducing financial market volatility, it has become a political symbol to make banks, hedge funds and high-frequency traders pay towards cleaning up a debt crisis shaking the continent.

But the EU has not been unanimous. To the contrary, such tax may even threaten escalation of political rifts among the member states that could undermine the already fragile relationships. 

More from the same article:

But the move threatens to open yet another rift in Europe, where countries already diverge in their regulation of finance and politicians have long argued over how best to control the banks blamed for triggering financial turmoil in 2007.

Proponents first tried to introduce the tax worldwide in 2008 via the Group of 20 major economies. Faced with U.S., Swiss and Chinese opposition, they tried to persuade the 27-member European Union to lead the way, or even the 17-nation euro zone. But each organisation had its sceptics.

Following an aborted attempt to introduce its own such levy in the mid-1980s, Sweden has repeatedly warned that introducing the tax will simply drive trading elsewhere. Britain, home to the region's biggest financial centre, London, will not join.

The group of Tobin taxers:

Germany, France, Italy and Spain have made it clear, however, they will be among a group that will impose the charge that is set to be 0.1 percent on the trading of bonds and shares and 0.01 percent for derivatives deals.

But the move by the group, which includes Austria, Belgium, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, Estonia and Slovakia, has been greeted with scepticism by analysts and industry, who believe it fragments Europe's approach to regulating finance at a time when a separate plan tries to unify euro zone banking supervision.

If transaction costs rise enough due to these taxes, compounded by intensifying regulations, particularly capital controls, we should expect to see capital move away from these Europe nations and seek out places where money is treated best or is welcomed.

Asia should take this opportunity to liberalize more her financial markets in order to attract investors looking for capital friendly environments.

A Looming Tax Revolt? Protesting French Entrepreneurs Goes Viral

Because government holds the badges and guns, they haughtily presume of the complete subjugation of their subjects. They fail to realize that as humans, their constituents will respond to policies based on the latter’s self-interests—which could mean either life or death.

In France, the class warfare policies of President Francois Hollande has compelled entrepreneurs to bond together to demonstrate or protest on the highly repressive tax regime being rammed down their throats. 

The French entrepreneur’s grievances has gone viral (above logo is from their Facebook page) 

From Bloomberg,

French entrepreneurs have a new mascot -- the pigeon.

Using the bird’s role in French slang as the “sucker,” owners of startups have formed a group dubbed “Les Pigeons” to show that President Francois Hollande’s new taxes make them the fall guys for France’s economic woes. They are protesting the almost doubling of the tax rate on capital gains generated from selling a business in Hollande’s budget for 2013.

The group has gathered more than 34,000 supporters in less than six days on Facebook Inc.’s social network and spurred more than 3,600 posts under the “#geonpi” tag on Twitter, with the founders of Iliad SA (ILD), Vente-Privee and Meetic SA (MEET) throwing in their voices of support.

“The government thinks France’s entrepreneurs are pigeons,” the movement’s initiators wrote on a dedicated Facebook page. “Anti-economic policies are crushing the entrepreneurial spirit and exposing France to a big risk.”

Entrepreneurs have for months called on France’s government to avoid slapping them with more taxes, saying it will dry up interest in creating new companies or drive startups away.

Socialist President Hollande, seeking to appease his base in his first annual budget last week, raised taxes on the rich and big companies and included a minimum of spending cuts to reduce the deficit. The government introduced a 75 percent tax for income above 1 million euros ($1.29 million).

Class warfare policies foster social divisions. This means that if the French government will remain recalcitrant in the pursuit of harsh socialist redistributionist policies, untoward consequences or the risks of capital flight,  tax revolt and or civil unrest rises. 

Moreover, by assailing the productive tax paying class, French fiscal position will likely worsen thus the likelihood of bringing down the entire euro project with it.

So instead of attaining “social justice”, class warfare policies will only lead to greater risks of intensifying the current crisis, a violent outcome and social instability.

Again politicians and their sycophants never learn.

US Companies Prepare for Greece Exit

More evidence of the financial market-real world detachment.

Seen from the financial markets, Euro’s problems seem headed for a silver lining. But from the ground, events seems turning for the worst.

US companies are reportedly preparing for a “Greece exit”

From the New York Times,

Even as Greece desperately tries to avoid defaulting on its debt, American companies are preparing for what was once unthinkable: that Greece could soon be forced to leave the euro zone.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has looked into filling trucks with cash and sending them over the Greek border so clients can continue to pay local employees and suppliers in the event money is unavailable. Ford has configured its computer systems so they will be able to immediately handle a new Greek currency.

No one knows just how broad the shock waves from a Greek exit would be, but big American banks and consulting firms have also been doing a brisk business advising their corporate clients on how to prepare for a splintering of the euro zone.

That is a striking contrast to the assurances from European politicians that the crisis is manageable and that the currency union can be held together. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will consider measures that would ease pressure on Europe’s cash-starved countries.

Public’s opinion has been shifting rapidly. Again from the same article… (bold emphasis mine)

In a survey this summer, the firm found that 80 percent of clients polled expected Greece to leave the euro zone, and a fifth of those expected more countries to follow.

“Fifteen months ago when we started looking at this, we said it was unthinkable,” said Heiner Leisten, a partner with the Boston Consulting Group in Cologne, Germany, who heads up its global insurance practice. “It’s not impossible or unthinkable now.”

Mr. Leisten’s firm, as well as PricewaterhouseCoopers, has already considered the timing of a Greek withdrawal — for example, the news might hit on a Friday night, when global markets are closed.

A bank holiday could quickly follow, with the stock market and most local financial institutions shutting down, while new capital controls make it hard to move money in and out of the country.

“We’ve had conversations with several dozen companies and we’re doing work for a number of these,” said Peter Frank, who advises corporate treasurers as a principal at Pricewaterhouse. “Almost all of that has come in over the transom in the last 90 days.”

From the hindsight everything looks easy to explain, but as I have been saying events can be so fluid, where moves can be swift and dramatic.

I’d say that an exit will mark the climax of the bear market of Greece equity markets.

The Athens General Exchange index has fallen by nearly 90% since 2007. (chart from Bloomberg)

Greece will likely devalue (inflate) intensively. These should put a floor and perhaps reverse the bear market trend. But rising stocks doesn’t necessarily translate to an economic recovery, instead they can be symptoms of severe inflation or even hyperinflation.

Eurozone’s Nascent Signs of Stagflation

Stagflation according to Wikipedia.org is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows down, and unemployment remains steadily high

This Bloomberg article entitled Euro-Area Unemployment At Record, Inflation Quickens: Economy suggests that the Eurozone is now suffering from stagflation.

Euro-area unemployment rose to a record and inflation quickened more than economists forecast as rising energy costs threaten to deepen the economic slump.

The jobless rate in the economy of the 17 nations using the euro was 11.3 percent in July, the same as in June after that month’s figure was revised higher, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995. Inflation accelerated to 2.6 percent in August from 2.4 percent in the prior month, an initial estimate showed in a separate report. That’s faster than the 2.5 percent median forecast of 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

A 12.4 percent surge in crude-oil prices over the past two months is leaving consumers and companies with less money to spend just as governments seek ways to contain the debt crisis. European economic confidence dropped more than economists forecast to a three-year low in August and German unemployment increased for a fifth month, adding to signs the euro-area economy continued to shrink in the third quarter.

“The whole euro zone is undergoing negative growth developments,” Don Smith, a London-based economist at ICAP Plc, told Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio yesterday. “The sense is that increasingly the euro-zone crisis is bearing down on countries in northern Europe and Germany in particular and this is really forcing officials’ hands toward coming up with a firm solution.”

Europe’s nascent stagflation in pictures,

All three elements of stagflation, namely, elevated CPI or price inflation, contracting economic growth and high unemployment rates appear to be intact. (chart from trading economics)

And the so-called “firm solution” for policymakers translates to even more inflationism by the European Central Bank (ECB).

From the same article…

The ECB, which in July cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.75 percent, is working out details of a plan to purchase government bonds of distressed nations along with Europe’s rescue fund. So far, neither Italy nor Spain has asked for help from the bailout facility, the European Stability Mechanism.

The central bank, led by Mario Draghi, will hold its next meeting on Sept. 6 in Frankfurt.

“There may be a little bit of disappointment,” Piero Ghezzi, head of global economics at Barclays Plc, told Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” on Aug. 29. “A solution in Europe could be coming from the ECB if they were willing to do unlimited and unconditional purchases.”

Policymakers are fighting the last war. Incipient signs of stagflation will likely turn into intractable inflation or a deepening phase of stagflation once the next round of “unlimited and unconditional purchases” becomes a reality.

The ECB’s actions will then be likely complimented by the US Federal Reserve this September, and perhaps by other central banks such as BoJ, SNB and the BoE or even possibly China's PBoC soon.

These concerted inflationism by global central bankers could bring about the "worst of both worlds" for the global economy.

China-EU Deal: China may Buy EU Bonds, Bilateral Trade to be Settled in Yuan or Euro

China’s government promises to support the Eurozone by proposing to buy EU government bonds in return for expanded economic relations.

From Reuters,

China is prepared to buy more EU government bonds amid a worsening European debt crisis that is dragging on the world economy, Premier Wen Jiabao said, in the strongest sign of support for its biggest trading partner in months.

The debt crisis, which has dented demand for Chinese exports and dragged China into its worst downturn in three years, was the primary focus of talks between Wen and German Chancellor Angela Merkel who arrived in Beijing on Thursday.

The pair also concluded a flurry of business agreements, including a deal by China to buy 50 Airbus worth $3.5 billion, and multi-million-dollar investment deals involving Volkswagen AG and Chinese telecoms equipment maker ZTE.

But China’s pledge to backstop the Eurozone has been conditional.

More from the same article.

Wen said Beijing is willing to continue supporting the debt-stricken euro zone, and will step up talks with the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- also known as the troika -- to help struggling EU nations.

"China is willing, on condition of fully evaluating the risks, to continue to invest in the euro zone sovereign debt market, and strengthen communication and discussion with the European Union, the European Central Bank the IMF and other key countries to support the indebted euro zone countries in overcoming hardships," he said after meeting Merkel.

Wen, who did not elaborate, said he remained worried about the crisis in the euro zone.

"Recently, the European debt crisis has continued to worsen giving rise to serious concerns in the international community. Frankly speaking, I am also worried," Wen told a news conference.

"The main worries are two-fold: first is whether Greece will leave the euro zone. The second is whether Italy and Spain will take comprehensive rescue measures. Resolving these two problems rests with whether Greece Spain, Italy and other countries have the determination for reform."

China’s government made the same promise before but domestic politics proved to be an obstacle

China Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said Beijing would continue buying European government debt in February, but various Chinese agencies, including the sovereign wealth fund, countered the remarks by saying such investments were not wise due to risks.

The article does not elaborate whether China’s central bank pursued to fulfill on the pledge, or deferred until a comprehensive package has been contrived at.

My guess is that the kernel of the current deal of support by China to the EU, may have been set on the condition that bilateral trade will be settled mostly with the use of the yuan and or the Euro.

Both countries also agreed to settle more bilateral trade in the euro and yuan, as Beijing welcomed investments in China's interbank bond market by German banks, and the issuance of yuan-denominated financial products in Germany.

In short, the EU-China accord will work on bypassing the US dollar.

Given the marked slowdown or increasing signs of hard landing in China, it is not clear if China's government will undertake to buy significant amounts of EU bonds.

Nonetheless my guess is that the pact lays the foundation for the expanded use of China’s currency, the yuan, as international medium of exchange and as potential reserve currency, the reduced role of the US dollar, and the evolving balance of geopolitical power.

Explaining Super Mario’s Trifecta

The Buttonwood’s Notebook columnist (Philip Coggan) of the Economist provides a presumable explanation of last week’s rally following ECB Prez Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “Whatever it Takes to Save the Euro”

AN interesting note from the always-perceptive Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research shows that July was a remarkable month. It was the only month in the last 400 in which European stocks, the German 10-year bund and gold rallied by more than 2.5%. Even when Mr Joshi uses a lower 2% hurdle, the last simultaneous rally on this scale was February 1987, and there have been only seven such months in the last 30 years.

Normally, you would expect the conditions for a simultaneous rally to be rare. Inflation would be good for gold and bad for bonds; a recession would be good for bonds and bad for equities and so on.

Super Mario was partly responsible for July's trifecta with his promise to do whatever it takes to save the euro. Equities rallied on the hope that Europe's economy would avoid a catastrophe; gold rallied because the ECB would likely create money; and bunds rallied because the ECB would save all the costs of Spanish rescue from falling on the German taxpayer. or at least that is a plausible explanation, based on the fundamentals. An alternative is that this was a risk-on rally in which investors moved money out of cash and into any likely asset class.

I may add a more important dimension to the above explanation: shorts had been deliberately set up for the ambush

One example: Euro shorts collapsed by 10% in one week and 35% in one month.

Notes the Zero hedge,

And where two months ago, the net short position in the EUR hit an all time record, north of -200K contracts, in the interim this number has contracted by over a third, and as of minutes ago was revealed to be "just" 139K in the week ending July 31, a 10% drop in shorts in one week. Why is this important? Because while short covering rallies have long been yet another narrative to keep shorts on the sidelines, the probability of such an event has declined dramatically now that the bulk of the weak hands have been kicked out, and the net exposure is back to January 2012 levels.

Underneath all the supposed noble sounding rhetoric to save the Euro, interventionism has mostly been about price controls or the manipulation of markets.

Will this Week Highlight the Climax for the Euro Debt Crisis?

Will the Euro debt crisis see its climax this week? The head of the Eurogroup Jean Juncker thinks so…

From Marketwatch.com

The head of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the countries sharing the common currency, their rescue fund and the European Central Bank will soon act to save the euro, according to a pre-release of an interview to be published Monday by Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

"We will decide in the coming days which measures to take," Mr. Juncker is quoted as saying.

Mr. Juncker indicated the European Financial Stability Fund and the ECB will buy Spanish government debt to bring down yields after a summit of euro-zone leaders in late June had paved the way for sovereign-bond purchases by the bailout fund.

"I have no doubt that we will implement the decisions of the last summit," Mr. Juncker said, according to the newspaper.

His statements seem to be the first official confirmation of media reports that European leaders are drawing up a plan of purchases of Spanish and Italian government debt by the ECB and the rescue fund.

"The euro countries have reached a point at which we have to make clear with all available means that we are strongly determined to ensure the financial stability of the currency union," the German daily quotes him as saying.

"The world is talking about whether the euro zone will still exist in a few months," Mr. Juncker said, according to Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

Despite a gamut of bailouts, Euro’s debt crisis has lingered since 2008 and have been worsening,

The belief that a political solution will arrest the crisis, like in the recent past, will likely be just another delaying the day of reckoning, that would go against the central designs of the political masters—Messrs. Junker, Draghi, Hollande, Ms. Merkel and the rest, and this includes team Ben Bernanke of the US Federal Reserve, whom has been working closely with the ECB—to prop up the unsustainable political welfare-crony system.

But of course, real actions from central banks will have real effects in the marketplace and in the economy. And this is why the details of what they will do will greatly matter.

Global financial markets have priced in heavily the expectations of the coming massive bailout by the ECB.

So political actions will have to deal first with the market’s expectations. The failure of which may result to the magnified market tremors which could swiftly eviscerate gains we have seen in the recent days.

Next, financial markets have become extremely complacent and heavily dependent on steroids. Bad new has been interpreted as good news.

Growing signs of political desperation by Euro officials have only reinforced the market’s HOPE of a political fix from political narcotism (inflationism) even when unfolding events keeps us telling us the opposite.

Financial markets have been reduced to a branch of a grand casino according to ex-US President Reagan’s former budget director David Stockman

Not only will this mean sustained volatility of market pricing—out of the repeated price distortions from widespread interventions—such complacency amplifies the fat tail risks (or a market crash). Of course I hope that this won’t happen.But the risk environment or conditions says that this is a possibility.

But hope would not serve as a better guide for prudent investors, instead, we should prepare for the worst while hope for the best

Be very careful out there.

IMF Economist Resigns, Cites Conflict of Interests, Says: “Ashamed to Have Had Any Association with the Fund at all”

Brewing trouble at the IMF.

A renegade IMF economist recently resigned out of alleged conflict of interests. The Wall Street Journal Blog reports,

A senior International Monetary Fund economist is resigning from the Fund, writing a scathing letter to the board blaming management for suppressing staff warnings about the financial crisis and a pro-European bias that he says has exacerbated the euro-zone debt crisis.

“The failure of the fund to issue [warnings] is a failing of the first order, even if such warnings may not have been heeded,” Peter Doyle said in a letter dated June 18 and copied to senior management.

Doyle is formerly a division chief in the IMF’s European Department responsible for non-crisis countries. He currently acts as an adviser to the Fund but is expected to officially leave in the fall.

“The consequences include suffering [and risk of worse to come] for many including Greece, that the second global reserve currency is on the brink, and that the Fund for the past two years has been playing catch-up and reactive roles in the last-ditch efforts to save it,” he said in the letter.

Mr. Doyle’s shift in positions at the fund–from division chief to adviser–occurred around the same time that a new European Department chief was appointed. A senior official at the IMF said the new chief restructured the department, replacing many of its staff from outside the department earlier.

“After twenty years of service, I am ashamed to have had any association with the Fund at all,” he said in the letter. Mr. Doyle wasn’t immediately available for further comment.

IMF is funded by taxpayers from different member nations thus, like all other multilateral agencies, the IMF is a political institution subject to the advancement of the political interests of major contributors (represented through the quota-voting system).

Such distribution of power can already be seen from the appointment of executive directors. From the IMF,

Five Executive Directors are appointed by the member countries holding the five largest quotas (currently the United States, Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom), and 19 are elected by the remaining member countries. Under reforms currently being finalized, all 24 Directors will be elected by the member countries, starting in 2012.

As a political institution, one really cannot expect the IMF to become apolitical and dispense their role in an objective manner, no matter the stated mission or job goals.

This also demonstrates of the web of complicity of the global cartelized tripartite political institutions of the welfare-warfare state, the privileged banking class and central banks whose interests has been promoted or upheld through all the political multilateral agencies.

And the uneven political representations in the IMF adds to the many reasons why bailouts or the redistribution of resources from poor nations (like Philippines) to the crisis stricken rich bankers and political class (whom fall under the umbrella of political interests of the major IMF fund contributors) has not only been financially unviable but immoral.

Phisix and ASEAN Equities in the Shadow of Contagion Risks

The common feature for today’s global financial marketplace has been extreme volatility

Sharp price fluctuations are seen by scalpers and short term traders as wonderful opportunities. On the other hand, such landscape for me, exhibits signs of increasing market distress. From a trading perspective, this implies for a low profit-high risk engagement.

In short, when the risk is high or when uncertainty dominates, I opt to take a defensive posture. For me, it is better to lose opportunity than to lose capital.

The Philippine and ASEAN markets have not been spared of such volatility.

The local benchmark fell by a measly .07% this week. But this comes after the Phisix opened strongly on Monday, lifted by the late week rally of Wall Street from the other week. Unfortunately such one day rally failed to hold ground as the following sessions essentially more than erased Monday’s gains.

Global markets have closed mixed for the week.

Almost every major equity benchmark encountered a rollercoaster week. Like the Phisix most of the early gains came under pressure during the close of the week.

In the ASEAN region, there have been signs of rotation.

This year’s ASEAN laggards, Indonesia (+6.8% year-to-date) and Malaysia (+7.33% also y-t-d) ended the week strongly as ASEAN outperformers, the Philippines (+19.2%) and Thailand (+17.9%) retrenched.

This only goes to show that the destiny of the Phisix has been tied with that of the region. So any belief that the local benchmark may perform independently will likely be disproven.

Also given the rotational dynamics, we might see some “catch up” play or the narrowing of the recent wide variance between the laggards and leaders overtime. But this doesn’t intuitively mean that such gaps will close.

But the fate of ASEAN’s markets will ultimately depend on the unfolding events in the US.

US Markets and Economy as ASEAN’s Anchor

Yes there have occasional instances where the Phisix has diverged from US or world markets[1], but overtime, the mean reversion capabilities of the markets govern.

Thus, the exemplary performance of ASEAN markets can be traced to the buoyancy of the US markets.

For as long as the US remains firm, so will likely be the fortunes of ASEAN markets and vice versa.

The US markets has so far been resilient from the Europe’s crisis, partly due to the capital flight dynamics from the Euro into the US, and similarly from the slowdown from major emerging markets as the BRICs.

Nonetheless such sustainability must be questioned considering that much of the world’s major economies (developed and emerging markets) have been in a marked downtrend.

Unlike in 2008, there hardly will be any China and other major emerging markets to rely on to do much of the weightlifting. Many emerging markets, particularly the BRICs have been bogged down by their domestic quasi-bubble problems.

In addition, the US Federal Reserve continues to employ talk therapy (signaling channel or policy communications management) instead of undertaking real actions. Media continues to broadcast the prospects of a Bernanke Put (“bad news is good news”), as Fed officials continue to signal verbal support in projecting hope for the steroid addicted markets.

And importantly political gridlock and regime uncertainty has been worsening (taxmaggedon, fiscal cliff, debt ceiling, Dodd-Frank[2], Obamacare, the forthcoming national elections and lately even the controversial LIBOR[3] issue) will likely intensify the current business, economic and financial uncertainties.

And considering that the US markets and her economy has been bolstered by sustained injections of steroids, the lack of and the perceived dearth of policy palliatives, as evidenced by the decelerating money supply growth, will likely bring to the surface and expose most of the misallocated investments, which has been camouflaged by recent monetary policies.

Such dynamics will be manifested through an economic slowdown if not a recession—but again this would really depend on how Ben Bernanke and US Federal Reserve will react or respond to increasing evidences of a slowdown.

Lately even the New York Federal Reserve swaggered about having to boost to US stock markets[4], which they say without them would have been 50% lower!!!

Proof that low interest rates have hardly worked: record low mortgage interest rates[5] have been amiss in providing sustained recovery to US property markets[6].

Yet steroid addicted financial markets continue to look forward to the FOMC’s meeting during the end of July in the hope for another round of policy opiates.

Add to these the soaring costs of agricultural commodities (chart from US global investors)[7], which have been mostly attributed to weather or drought conditions.

This, I believe, has been exacerbated by easy money policies and other interventions (e.g. agricultural subsidies, tariffs and etc…) which should extrapolate to higher food prices.

So we seem to be witnessing incipient signs of stagflation as I have long been predicting.

[As a side note, a UBS analyst recently noted that the risks of hyperinflation has been greatest for the US and UK[8]. But he sees less than 10% chance for this to occur in the near future.

Yet he believes that hyperinflation results from “unsustainable deficits” which “occurs after central banks monetize a large amount of debt”. Thus hyperinflation is a fiscal phenomenon.

I’d still say that hyperinflation is a monetary phenomenon meant to address fiscal concerns. Yes hyperinflation signifies a means to an end approach.

In dire financial straits and in desperation due to the lack of access to domestic and overseas private sector financing, governments frenetically print money to preserve on their political entitlements and power.

At the end of day, all these unwieldy or unsustainable levels of debt expansion will be defaulted upon directly through restructuring, or indirectly through inflation, where hyperinflation may arise as consequence to policy miscalculation, if not deliberately.

And this is why the risks of hyperinflation shouldn’t be discounted[9] despite today’s low interest rate environment]

Also, Spanish bonds at record highs are manifestations of persisting and growing financial and economic stress in the Eurozone and of the extreme fluidity of current conditions, which will have an impact to the US and to the world.

Markets have never really anticipated this.

As Doug Noland of the Credit Bubble Bulletin rightly observed[10],

It was not that many months ago that Spain was viewed as part of a financially stable European “core.” Indeed, Spain (5-yr) CDS ended Q1 2010 at about 100 bps. Spain commenced 2010 with government debt at a seemingly healthy 54% of GDP. Few anticipated the incredible pace of fiscal deterioration. With the federal government on the hook for the EU’s 100bn euro bank bailout package, the IMF now projects Spain will end 2012 with debt at about 90% of GDP – and poised for continued rapid growth.

Who would expect that French bonds to dramatically narrow against German bunds, where “spreads on French debt have narrowed by 16 bps in the last month and are currently at their lowest levels of 2012”[11] as French government paper morph into a ‘safe haven’ from the Euro crisis?

That’s how swift and powerful events have been moving.

To consider, people stampeding into French bonds seem to have overlooked the many sins underpinning the French sovereign paper.

As the BCA Research explains[12]

The French public sector is not in good financial health and is in worse condition than that of Italy in many respects. Italy has run large primary surpluses through much of the last two decades, while France has run large deficits. The Italian debt/GDP ratio was rather stable, while France’s has been rising sharply. In fact, France has accumulated 60% more debt than Italy since 1999, and its debt service costs are rising. More worrisome is that France’s combined private and public sector debt load is higher than that of Italy, putting the French economy in a perilous situation. The only variable where France looks better is economic growth, but even this has mostly come from larger government spending, and in turn at the cost of escalating debt.

And considering the incumbent socialist administration’s penchant for more government spending, taxes and regulations[13] which again will translate to more debt, reduction of productivity and competitiveness and potential exodus of investors, today’s safehaven may become tomorrow’s epicenter for the progressing crisis.

So we are seeing existing policy error compounded by more policy errors that only aggravates such crisis conditions, from which the sentiment of financial markets shifts violently from one end to another.

Hence, while earnings report of US publicly listed corporations may seem buoyant which has given the impetus for the bulls to provide the recent strength to the US equity markets[14], all the above compounds to signify substantial headwinds that US financial markets (equities, bonds, commodities) will be faced with.

And to add, it would be big mistake to read current market activities as tomorrow’s outcome given the huge swings happening in the financial markets around the world. That’s how unstable and mercurial current conditions are.

China’s “Good News” Ignored by the Markets

Such unpredictability has been no different for China.

This week, there has been a torrent of supposed good news that should have reanimated, if not fired up, China’s financial markets.

China’s banking system has reportedly posted a big jump in loan growth or bank lending rose by 16% to 919.8 billion yuan (US$144.3 billion) last June[15]

While news say that this signifies a positive sign from government efforts, this seems largely unclear. I am not even sure if these have been contracted by the private sector. As in the recent past, most of the so-called stimulus has been directed to the overleveraged and overindebted State Owned Enterprises (SoE)[16] which only adds to the current juncture.

The property sector likewise reported a significant surge in bank loans from April to June, up by 20% from last year to the tune of 322.6 billion yuan ($50.64 billion)[17].

Reports also say that China will ease restrictions on her shadow banking system, as well as, double up investments on railway projects[18].

This goes in contrast to previous reports where 70% of China’s railways projects recently has been suspended as a result of ballooning deficit financing, as well as last year’s deadly train crash which has brought upon safety concerns and exposed corruption at the highest levels of the ministry[19]

The confusing signals from supposed government stimulus and support, as well as, positive developments seems to have been discounted by the China’s financial markets as both the major equity market bellwether, the Shanghai Composite (SSEC-top pane), and China’s currency the Yuan (CNY/USD-bottom pane) have not demonstrated auspicious responsiveness to such developments.

Unlike at the end of the 2012 where the SSEC hit a low but the yuan remain lofty, this time both the SSEC and the yuan have been treading downwards.

These are hardly reactions that could be reckoned as bullish.

In contrast these could be symptoms of deeper underlying malaise—a bursting bubble, punctuated by intensifying hot money outflows[20].

With scarcely any household savings to tap, most of the increases in savings are from government and corporations[21] there seems little room for bailouts without incurring risks of inflation.

So like the US, we have the same ingredients contributing to the current highly uncertain climate, ambivalent central bank (PBoC) and political stalemate which has been prompting for increasing manifestations of the unraveling of malinvestments that has been the driving force of the current slowdown.

The Asian Electronic Export Nexus

Many seem to have developed the hardened belief that domestic (or regional) markets have been made invincible by the recent events, particularly record high equities.

As I have been saying, today’s globalization has made the world much deeply interconnected through trade, capital, labor and even through the US dollar standard based banking system.

Embracing the idea of decoupling can be hazardous to one’s portfolio and detrimental to one’s emotions and ego.

In terms of trade, a slowdown in world growth will have impact negatively on Asia’s electronic exports.

As The Economist recently commented[22]

THE electronics industry accounts for two-fifths of manufacturing output in Asia, according to calculations by HSBC. So when electronics grows quickly, Asia's GDP tends to speed up too, to the tune of almost 0.2 percentage points for each full-point increase in the electronics sector. Unfortunately this correlation also applies when things slow down (see left-hand chart). And recent signs are that Asia’s electronics industry is doing just that: HSBC’s lead indicator, which gives a rough two-month preview of future production, has slowed sharply in recent months, in contrast to the latest available output figures. One bright side, given the economic woes of Europe and America, is that Asian manufacturing is no longer as closely tied to Western markets as it was. Three of the five components that comprise HSBC's lead indicator measure conditions within Asia. So when the next rebound occurs, it is likely to be home-grown.

Again while it is true that Asia has been less dependent on the West, there is no guarantee that other sectors will not be affected from slomo diffusing or spreading of the global debt crisis.

A slowdown in electronic exports incidentally constitutes about half of Philippine exports[23]

So those dreaming of immunity from a global slowdown will likely be refuted.

Bottom line: The contagion risk is real.

Unless we see aggressive collaborative actions from major central banks (which may place a temporary patch or booster to the markets), or signs of economic stabilization from developed nations or from major emerging economies (whom are experiencing market clearing liquidations from domestic bubbles), we should expect global markets to remain sharply volatile and erratic in both directions but faced with greater probabilities of “fat tail” risks.

As a final note: I don’t expect the coming State of the Nation Address by the Philippine President to have lasting effects. They are likely to be meaningless feel good political rhetoric whose goals are for his party to seize the majority in the coming congressional elections in 2013.

Bubble policies and the effects thereof will continue to be main drivers of the asset markets.

Approach the equity markets with caution.

---

[1] See Phisix: Will the Risk ON Environment be Sustainable? June 24, 2012

[2] See Infographic: Dodd Frank-enstein, July 21,2012

[3] See Barclay’s LIBOR Scandal: Self Fulfilling Turmoil July 19, 2012

[4] See Bernanke Doctrine: New York Fed Boasts of Pushing Up the US Stock Markets, July 14, 2012

[5] Wall Street Journal Blog Vital Signs: Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low July 13, 2012

[6] Wall Street Journal Blog Vital Signs: Mortgage Rates Hit Record Low July 13, 2012

[7] US Global Investors America’s Competitive Spirit, July 20, 2012

[8] BusinessInsider.com UBS: The Risk Of Hyperinflation Is Largest In The US And The UK, July 17, 2012

[9] See Taking The Hyperinflation Risk With A Grain Of Salt?

[10] Noland Doug Risk On, Risk Off And The Spanish/Chinese Tug Of War, Credit Bubble Bulletin PrudentBearcom July 20, 2012

[11] Bespoke Investment Group EU Sovereign Spreads, July 20, 2012

[12] BCA Research, Watching France, July 10, 2012

[13] See Quote of Day: The Last Hurrah of Socialist Welfare States May 8, 2012

[14] See US Stocks Markets: Earnings Trump Economic Data, Leading Economic Indicators Fall, July 20, 2012

[15] Channelnewsasia.com China bank loans rise in June, July 12, 2012

[16] See China’s New Loans Unexpectedly Surged in May June 12, 2012

[17] Reuters.com China Q2 property loans rebound with sales, July 19, 2012

[18] See Will China Ease Banking Curbs? Has the Railway Stimulus been Launched?, July 17 2012

[19] Payne Amy Morning Bell: Transportation Secretary Wants Us to Be Like Communist China, Heritage Network, July 9, 2012

[20] Zero Hedge, Forget China's Goal-Seeked GDP Tonight; This Is The Chart That Keeps The PBOC Up At Night, July 12, 2012

[21] See Contagion Risk: Watch for China’s Catastrophic Deleveraging, July 16, 2012

[22] Graphic Details Chips are down, The Economist July 18, 2012

[23] RGE Analyst Blog Philippines: Reconciling Short-Circuiting Electronic Exports, Economonitor, February 17, 2012