Moody’s on the Philippines: No Property Bubble, Move along Nothing to see here

An official of Moody’s claims that there has been “no property bubble” in the Philippines.Moving along nothing to see here.

The Businessworld writes,

Real estate has again become a hot-button topic after banks saw their exposure to the industry breach regulatory limits in 2012. At P821.7 billion and comprising 20.9% of their total loan portfolio, the amount exceeded the BSP-mandated 20% cap.

The breach, though, was due to a new definition of "exposure." Banks were required to report not just real estate loans but also investments in debt and equity securities that finance real estate activities. These activities range from the acquisition, construction and development of properties, as well as buying and selling, rental and management.

Banks also had include loans for socialized and low-cost housing developments, which were previously exempted from the reportorial requirements.

Mr. Tremblay said the figure was no cause for alarm, noting: "The new definition of ‘exposure’ includes loans to low-cost and socialized housing and these segments tend to be less susceptible to speculation."

The BSP is mulling raising the 20% cap to accommodate the new definition as well as property market growth since 1997, when the limit was first introduced.

"Prospectively, we are not too fixated on any specific numerical cap. There is no magic number that can determine the point beyond which real estate exposure becomes a credit concern," Mr. Tremblay said.

The focus, instead, should be on factors such as demand and supply, underwriting standards, loan-to-value ratios and the leverage of households and firms. These can more accurately show whether the appreciation of prices and borrowers’ behavior is driven by fundamentals or speculation, he pointed out.

"So far, trends in these areas have remained within reasonable limits," Mr. Tremblay claimed. -

The Moody’s expert says the market should focus on demand and supply. Totally agreed.

But if domestic demand has been growing at anywhere at 6-9%, part of which has been financed by debt, and that the supply side has been growing at the rate of about 25% or more bolstered mainly by credit, then are these not signs of burgeoning imbalances? Particularly the ballooning variance between demand, on one side, and on the other, the growth of credit, as well as, the supply side, are not signs of bubbles? 

And when such exemplary growth in credit and the supply side is being clustered into popular sectors (real estate, shopping malls, casino, BPO vertical offices), these do not account for as signs of asset bubbles? 

Where then is economics in the above article which the Moody’s expert supposedly preaches?

One does not establish the presence or absence of a bubble by reading only statistics and by proclaiming immense faith on authorities for managing them. 

Statistics are historical data. They don’t tell much about the future.

While governments have been pursuing activist policies, this does not ensure the sustainability of current trends for the simple reason that their actions merely signifies as "extend and pretend" or "kick the can down the road". All such actions will have serious ramifications. Japan's much ballyhooed Abenomics has as of this writing triggered riots in the Japanese bond markets. If the riots escalate then we might soon see a debt crisis in Japan that will have a domino effect around the world. Does the Moody's see this?

It’s the same reason why mainstream economists failed to see the bubble which culminated with the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008 from which UK’s Queen Elizabeth censured them. In reality most of them were cheerleading the bubble until the bubble boomeranged on their faces.

Moody’s has also not failed to see the US bubble, but even played an important part in the lowering of credit standard by becoming stamp pads for issuers of structured securities.

Yet what Moody’s ignore, is the most critical factor: the trajectory of credit growth both from the supply and demand side, not limited to real estate but to other sectors associated with them.

Importantly what needs to be established are the incentives that will drive such trajectory.

When the Philippine government promotes zero bound rates to induce “domestic demand” and at the same time reduce SDA rates purportedly for “banks to withdraw some of their funds parked in the BSP, thereby increasing money circulating in the economy” , these policies don’t incentivize or promote debt a build-up?  

And what’s the purpose of credit rating upgrades? 

Investopedia on Credit ratings:

Credit is important since individuals and corporations with poor credit will have difficulty finding financing, and will most likely have to pay more due to the risk of default.

So upgrades extrapolates to an ease of finding credit finance. In short, it is a reward for borrowers or an inducement to borrow. So current upgrades doesn’t provide incentives to further fuel a bubble through more debt?

This is basic economic logic which seem to operate in a vacuum.

Apparently in the eyes and mind of the mainstream, "economics" is a convenient word used to disguise pseudo expertise from the truth and to pander to a politically brainwashed crowd who has been mesmerized by the four most dangerous words of investing, “this time is different”.

Yet unfortunately such mentality is in itself a sign of the manic phase of a bubble cycle in motion. 

Caveat emptor.

US Government Admits: Drone Warfare Killed Innocent Americans

Imperial US foreign policies coursed through drone warfare has killed even their own citizens

From the New York Times: (hat tip Zero Hedge)

In a letter to Congressional leaders obtained by The New York Times, Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. disclosed that the administration had deliberately killed Anwar al-Awlaki, a radical Muslim cleric who was killed in a drone strike in September 2011 in Yemen.

The American responsibility for Mr. Awlaki’s death has been widely reported, but the administration had until now refused to confirm or deny it.

The letter also said that the United States had killed three other Americans: Samir Khan, who was killed in the same strike; Mr. Awlaki’s son Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, who was also killed in Yemen; and Jude Mohammed, who was killed in a strike in Pakistan.

“These individuals were not specifically targeted by the United States,” Mr. Holder wrote.

Are these more signs of things to come? Will drones be used against the US citizens in their homeland in the name of public safety?

Cognitive Dissonance and the US Stock Markets

Media, politicians and the US stock market operates in a cognitive dissonance. Cognitive dissonance is the confusion arising from the state of holding (Wikipedia.org) “two or more conflicting cognitions: ideas, beliefs, values or emotional reactions”

First the record run in US stocks has been been attributed to “growing confidence in the U.S. recovery” Good news is read as good for stocks, that's as of the other day.

Then today, falling stocks have been imputed to concerns over a pushback on stimulus; “will scale back its stimulus efforts if the labor market continues to improve”. 

Here good news is seen as bad news.

From the above account, one wonders whether the “growing” economy is really good or bad for stocks? Or whether “growth” has merely served as a cosmetic for the deepening addictions by the markets on the FED's steroids?

More rhetorical conflict of rhetoric from Media, Wall Street, and the US government;

On the one hand, the economy has been exhibiting strength for some of the FED officials to propose tapering of stimulus 

A number said they were willing to taper bond buying as early as the next meeting on June 18-19 if economic reports show “evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth,” according to the record of the April 30-May 1 gathering released today in Washington.

“Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress” since the-bond buying program began in September, according to the minutes. “But many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate.”

On the other hand, Ben Bernanke contradicts the above by stating that the economy doesn’t seem to be strong enough for premature withdrawal of stimulus

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke defended the central bank’s record stimulus program under questioning from lawmakers, telling them that ending it prematurely would endanger a recovery hampered by high unemployment and government spending cuts.

“A premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further,” Bernanke said today in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington.

From Mr. Bernanke’s point of view, “premature tightening of monetary policy could lead interest rates to rise” implies the exposing of the risks of the highly leverage markets and economy. And that such tightening would extrapolate to a bubble bust or in economic gobbledygook “the risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further”

So essentially, people at the Fed have been talking at different wavelengths. Bernanke's discourse has been premised on the entrenched bubble conditions, whereas other Fed officials have used statistics to generate economic forecasts (or reading history as the future).

Thus Fed officials seem as clueless as to the real direction of the economy or of the markets. Or are they?

And a bollixed FED has been used by the stock markets as a reason to retrace. From intraday gains, US stocks went from green into the red yesterday (stockcharts.com)

Record setting US stocks has been on fire rising for 19 straight sessions before today’s correction and whose winning streak was cut short by cognitive dissonance.

Why is this important? Because, aside from direct and indirect interventions, the state of bewilderment of the causal process of the current environment by the media and political agents has contributed immensely to the skewing of price signals and to the accumulation of imbalances in the system. This has also been used to sabotage gold prices.

Well, Philip Coggan of the Economist Buttonwood fame points to studies reinforcing the “parallel universe” or the growing disconnect between stocks and the real economy. (bold mine)

The annualised growth rate of the US economy in the first quarter was 2.5 per cent; the annual gain in earnings per share was 5.2%; the annualised gain in the market was 46%. Of course, as has been pointed out by the assiduous Marsh, Dimson and Staunton, or by Jay Ritter, there is no clear statistical link between GDP growth and equity returns at all.

The mainstream has now been recognizing this.

And as I have been pointing out this is not your daddy or your granddaddy's stock markets.

And more on why the current environment or the parallel universe is unsustainable, again from the Buttonwood… (bold mine)

The hope is that higher share prices can eventually produce a self-fulfilling cycle via a wealth effect (and on this note, the University of Michigan survey last week showed consumer confidence at a six-year high) or indeed on business investment. Mr Makin notes that real household net worth is up by about $4 trillion over the last year, helped by houses as well as stocks. He estimates the wealth effect at about 4% over a year; thus the boost to consumer spending was $160 billion, or 1% of GDP. This may indeed explain why US consumer have shaken off the effect of the rise in payroll taxes this year.

But the offset of this wealth effect is that the household savings rate fell to 2.6% in the first quarter, down from 5.1% in 2010. As Mr Makin points out, this is ominously similar to the pre-2007 pattern of high consumption based on the hope that asset prices would stay high. The potential long-term problem here is that asset prices tend to revert to the mean; people may be saving too little for their retirement on the view that markets will do all the work. As in 2007 and 2008, they may get a nasty shock later on. One could make quite a bearish case for US equities in the long run, on the grounds that share price valuations (as measured by the Shiller p/e) are higher than average and profits are at a post-1947 high as a proportion of GDP.

The lesson is whatever statistical growth seen from today is mostly a reflection of credit driven elevated prices of financial assets rather from real economic growth. The same holds true for the Philippines. 

The mirage of statistical growth. 

Hence Ben Bernanke realizes that any pullback of steroids would expose on this sham that would undermine the banking sector’s balance sheets.

Also an ‘exit’ would also mean the pulling of the proverbial rag underneath the FED’s monetization of US debts which hardly anyone talks about.

Bottom line: The protection of the banking sector and the Fed’s financing of US government debt have been the main pillars that undergirds the FED’s credit easing policies. That’s why such “exit” or “withdrawal” blarney are what I call as poker bluff. The Fed cannot afford it.

IN withholding the truth, the Fed’s communication’s strategy seems as the guileful employment of cognitive dissonance in order to confuse the public.

As English novelist Eric Arthur Blair popularly known for his pen name George Orwell wrote in Politics and the English Language (italics original)

Political language…is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. One cannot change this all in a moment, but one can at least change one's own habits, and from time to time one can even, if one jeers loudly enough, send some worn-out and useless phrase — some jackboot, Achilles’ heel, hotbed, melting pot, acid test, veritable inferno, or other lump of verbal refuse — into the dustbin where it belongs.

Quote of the Day: Libertarianism: Putting Justice, Truth, Goodness and Beauty into Reality

Libertarianism is not merely the intellectual contemplation of a wonderful, true and just political philosophy, it's not just the esthetic contemplation of a beautiful ideal, the ideal of a world without organized aggression, a world of harmony, of freedom, of prosperity, of mutual cooperation through voluntary activities in free markets. It is, of course, all of that. Because we become Libertarians in the first place because we fall in love, so to speak, with the goodness, the truth and the beauty of Libertarianism. But we Libertarians, it seems to me, are not content with contemplating justice, with contemplating truth, goodness and beauty. We're not playing intellectual games. We mean to change the world. We want to put this thing into reality.

This snippet from a talk given by "Mr. Libertarian", Dr. Murray N. Rothbard at the First World Libertarian convention in 1982

I posted earlier the video "The Six stages of the Libertarian movement" here.

Pls read the rest of the transcript at the lewrockwell.com

War on Coins: European Commission Proposes 1, 2 cent phase out as German Official Balks

Euro Commission officials has proposed to phase out small denomination coins. Such proposals follows other nations like Canada,  Netherland and Finland whom has similarly embarked on extinguishing coins from circulation.

From Reuters:

Saving pocket change may not end the euro zone crisis, but the European Commission hopes that scrapping the smallest coins could help penny-pinching governments cut costs.

The European Commission outlined proposals this week for the 17 euro zone countries to scrap their 1 and 2 cent coins, leaving 5-cent pieces as the smallest in circulation.

The Commission says the cost of making the coins has exceeded their face value for the past 11 years, effectively costing member states 1.4 billion euros ($1.8 billion).

More than 45 billion of the 1 and 2 cent coins have been minted since the euro entered circulation in 2002, but many are now buried behind sofas, lost in back pockets or left on the street rather than making their way to cash registers.

While scrapping them all together may appear to make sense, some consumers worry that rounding prices up to the nearest 5 cents will prove inflationary. On the other hand, rounding prices down to the nearest 5 cents might be beneficial.

Some observations:

European officials admit that these coins have greater value than the designated official face value.

Here is the content of the euro coins, according to the Wikipedia.org

The euro 1 and 2 coins are two-toned. The "gold" is an alloy, 75% copper, 20% zinc and 5% nickel. The "silver" is cupronickel, 75% copper, 25% nickel. The 10, 20 and 50-cent coins are a proprietary alloy known as "Nordic gold", consisting of 89% copper, 5% aluminium, 5% zinc and 1% tin. The 1, 2 and 5-cent coins are copper-coated steel fourrées. The copper alloys make the coinage antimicrobial.

So for the EU bureaucracy to cut further losses, it has been alleged, coin production need to be halted.

Next, EU officials imply that the public has been unintentionally hoarding coins: “buried behind sofas, lost in back pockets or left on the street rather than making their way to cash registers”.

Authorities acknowledge that such coins have higher value, but they insinuate that their constituents, the average citizens, don’t see or realize this. So the public is completely ignorant from real world affairs.

Such is an example where authorities are engaged in what seems as rhetorical sophistry which media imbibes as the gospel of truth.

In reality, such proposal has been all about political subterfuge.

Even if the ECB has been inflating less than her peers, they have been inflating. (charts from Cumber.com)

Yet by holding coins, one’s resources will affected less from the stealth transfer of being wealth conducted through inflationist policies.

In other words, coins provides refuge against policies that facilitate indirect looting of people’s savings, especially during run away inflation.

Recognizing this, the German central bank or Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann in an interview at the Bild.ge indirectly expressed opposition on such proposals…

In the German population, the desire to hold on to the coinage. Personally, I can only agree with that.

This is natural given the trauma from horrors of the Weimar hyperinflation as shown by the coin above in stating that “On 15 November 1923 1 pound of bread cost 80 billion, 1 pound of meat: 900 billion, 1 glass of beer: 52 billion”

Albeit, Mr. Weidmann leaves the decision on reducing the circulation of coins to the EU finance ministers than to central bankers.

Again whether it is cash transactions, gold and other precious metals, crypto-currencies like bitcoins or even government made coins, world governments have been working around the clock to ensure forced access on people’s savings.

An Example of Mania Thinking to Justify the US Stock Market Bubble

Look at the so-called “analysis” below from the following Bloomberg article:

A rising dollar may help push U.S. stocks higher by giving international investors more incentive to buy, according to Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer of Marketfield Asset Management.

The CHART OF THE DAY displays the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the Dollar Index since 1994 in the top panel. The correlation between the gauges, based on the most recent 200 weeks of trading, appears in the bottom panel.

March marked the first time since 2005 that the Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency’s value against the currencies of six of the largest U.S. trading partners, had a positive correlation with the S&P 500. Since then, the relationship has grown stronger each week.

“Foreign capital flows are starting to be attracted to the U.S. equity market” in a way last seen when the Internet bubble sent stocks surging in the 1990s, Shaoul wrote. The New York-based analyst added that he expects the dollar and share prices to rise together for the next few months.

One doesn’t need to be an “expert” to note of the bandwagon effect from higher financial market prices. This is not just an example of reflexivity—feedback loop between expectations and outcomes, it is an example of survivorship bias (looking only at the winners) and most importantly it is an example of the incentive to yield chase via momentum trade. People simply love to chase winners or the popular. The same applies to politics.

Here foreign capital flows serve merely as fundamental “rationalization” for the pattern and narrative seeking momentum trade behavior.

Look at the provided chart, while there are periods of extended tight positive correlations, there are also prolonged periods of negative correlations. Importantly, there have been whipsaws such as 1996 or 2002. In short, the correlation trade, between the S&P and the US dollar, has hardly been a sure thing.

Given today’s environment, a higher dollar means a bubble or credit fuelled yield chasing process is in progress. The artificial boom becomes a magnet for international speculators. Thus “foreign capital flows”. The same applies to the Philippines or ASEAN.

It also means that the race to devalue everyone’s currency has temporarily been tilted in favor of the US dollar. The marketplace temporarily expects counterparts of the US dollar to relatively devalue more. For instance Japan’s Abenomics may have made the US dollar as interim shock absorber for capital flight.

The strength of the US dollar also means that given today’s financial globalization, political-economic woes, such as the Eurozone, having been aggravated by the prospects of widening bank deposit seizures, has resulted, not only to reaching for yields for the benefit of the US dollar, but again the US dollar as interim refuge for capital from fears of confiscation.

But what this article fails to cite is the economic aspect: does higher prices lead to more demand or less? What if the booms turn into a bust? What if the FED revs up on the $85 billion a month purchases? What if the hibernating bond vigilantes in the US reawaken? What if for some reason or another, financial markets lose confidence on the US dollar? What if there will be a run on fiat money in general or across the world?

Banking on correlation without understanding the causal process signifies a hazardous undertaking.

The above oversimplified justification of buying stocks by using the US dollar correlation is an example of bubble mentality.

Caveat emptor.

First Paper Gold Exchange Casualty? Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange Closes, Settles in Cash

Is the closing of the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange signs of things to come for paper gold exchanges?

From the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange:  (hat tip Goldseek.com)

The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) announces today it has decided to voluntarily surrender the authorisation to provide automated trading services (“ATS”) granted by the Securities and Futures Commission (“the SFC”).

With immediate effect, no new orders may be placed and all open positions will be financially settled at the settlement price determined by HKMEx and its designated clearinghouse.

The voluntary surrender decision was made to enable the Exchange to re-align its strategy with the new industry environment since its trading revenues have not been sufficient to support operating expenses and, as a result, its inability to meet the required regulatory financial conditions.

While trading on the Exchange will discontinue, HKMEx as an organisation will continue to operate with its existing staff, and will focus on developing new products including renminbi-denominated precious and base metals contracts that will better meet customer needs. It also intends to re-apply at an appropriate time for an ATS authorization to launch these products with stronger and more effective market maker programs.

“The favourable conditions under which HKMEx was founded have not changed. Global commodity demand continues to shift towards Asia as the region undergoes sustained growth, presenting great opportunities that we will continue to exploit,” said Barry Cheung, Chairman of HKMEx. “Our priorities now are to protect members’ interests by ensuring effective closing of open positions while strengthening our shareholding base and developing new products that play to our distinctive strengths.”

In closing out the open positions, the Exchange has developed a plan in consultation with the SFC to ensure the process is orderly and that investors are well informed of the matter.

Will more default soon (out of supply shortages)? Things are really getting to be a lot interesting.

Contra Media: George Soros hasn’t been Selling Gold, He’s Buying Mines and Redeeming Physical Gold

Mainstream media likes to promote the supposed bear market in gold by attributing to actions of celebrity investors like George Soros. 

From yesterday’s Bloomberg:

Soros Fund Management LLC lowered its investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion ETP, by 12 percent to 530,900 shares as of March 31, compared with three months earlier, a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed May 15.

Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal, writing at the lewrockwell.com unearths what George Soros’ real position is (bold mine)

You know that gold bear market that the financial press keeps touting? The one George Soros keeps proclaiming? Well, it is not there. The gold bear market is disinformation that is helping elites acquire the gold.

Certainly, Soros himself doesn’t believe it, as the 13-F release issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 15 proves. George Soros has significantly increased his gold holding by purchasing $25.2 million of call options on the GDXJ Junior Gold Miners Index.

In addition the Soros Fund maintains a $32 million stake in individual mines; added 1.1 million shares of GDX (a gold miners ETF) to its holdings which now stand at 2,666,000 shares valued at $70,400,000; has 1,100,000 shares in GDXJ valued at $11,506,000; and 530,000 shares in the GLD gold fund valued at $69,467,000. [values as of May 17]

The 13-F release shows the Soros Fund with $239,200,000 in gold investments. If this is bearish sentiment, what would it take to be bullish?

The misinformation that Soros had sold his gold holdings came from misinterpreting the reason Soros’ holdings in the GLD gold trust declined. Soros did not sell the shares; he redeemed the paper claims for physical gold. Watching the gold ETFs, such as GLD, being looted by banksters, Soros cashed in some of his own paper gold for the real stuff.

The giveaway that Soros is extremely bullish on gold comes not only from his extensive holdings, but also from his $25.2 million call option on junior gold stocks. This is a highly leveraged bet on the weakest gold mines. With high production costs and falling gold price from constant short selling in the paper market, Soros’ bet makes no sense unless he thinks gold is heading up as the short raids concentrate gold in elite possession.

Well isn’t this poop and scoop or the spreading disiformation in order to force prices down and enable unscrupulous practitioners to profit?

Media has been deceptive, while it may be true that Mr. Soros may have reduced ETF holdings, they didn’t say that this was not a result of selling but from paper redemption to physical gold. Mr. Soros has shifted from paper gold and joined the physical real gold markets

And it is important to note that in watching what he does rather than what he says (demonstrated preference), Mr. Soros has been buying up the depressed mining sector both from derivatives (call option) ETFs (GDX) and from direct share ownership.

Media can be so toxic.

Video: Designing Confidence: How 3D Printing Improves on Prosthetic design

The following video features the the innovative work of Scott Summit in using 3D Printing and digital scanning technology to greatly improve Prosthetic design. (hat tip Professor Mark Perry)

Thailand’s Credit Bubble: Rising Baht is a Symptom Not the Disease

Thai’s former prime minister adores Abenomics. He claims that a rising currency the Thai baht may spark a crisis.

From Nationalmultimedia.com

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra warned yesterday that a lack of cooperation between the central bank and the Finance Ministry in reining in the strengthening baht could lead to a new financial crisis for Thailand.

Thaksin said the current economic indexes were worrying. "I like looking at different indexes and often get alarmed," he said.

"During the crisis, only the paranoid survived," he added, quoting Andrew Grove, former chief executive of computer-chip maker Intel.

The latest message on his Facebook account (www.facebook.com/thaksinofficial) posted yesterday afternoon said that Japan was able to achieve a GDP growth of 3.5 per cent in the first quarter because the Bank of Japan works directly with the Japanese government. He said Thailand's problem was that the Bank of Thailand was independent, and he accused the central bank of refusing to listen to the government.

"They [the Japanese] have a holistic approach to dealing with their economic problems. Their monetary policy and their fiscal policy are united," Thaksin said.

I have previously pointed out that Thailand has been nursing and blowing a bubble. Here is an update

Thailand’s loans to the private sector has spiked by nearly 40% since 2010 chart from tradingeconomics.com. That’s about 17%+ annual growth in the last 2 years + in a economy that has recently grown by an annual rate of 5.3%

Thailand’s debt to gdp in 2011 was at 132%. Current the explosive growth of loans imply that Thailand’s debt to gdp ratio nears or is at the 1997 highs of 166%.

And since banks has accounted for the gist of lending, domestic credit sourced from the banking sector in 2011 was at 150.78. This should be much larger today, perhaps near or at the 1997 levels of 177%

The credit boom in Thailand has led to swelling trade deficits. This implies that the Thais have been spending more than they have been producing, such that the consumption boom has been financed through credit expansion. This also implies reduced productivity as resources are being squandered on yield chasing and rampant speculative activities.

The former Thai PM sees the Japan’s model as a worthy paradigm to emulate. But the Thai government has already been doing an Abenomics but at a modest rate.

The Thai’s government budget has swung from surpluses to deficits over the last few years, which means government spending has increasingly been outpacing revenues.

And given the rate of increase in spending, the Thai government-debt to gdp has marginally risen the recent years. The subdued effect from rising government expenditures has been due to the bloated denominator from credit driven boom

And where does the Thai government get its funding to finance government’s accelerated spending? Well like the private sector, through debt expansion. 

Thailand’s external debt has DOUBLED at the close of 2012 relative to 2006.

The following chart hasn’t been updated. But it shows that the short term debt segment of the external debt, in 2010 constituted 54% share, which may be higher today.

This ratio has already topped the 1997 levels. And this also means Thailand’s debt profile makes it highly vulnerable to short term interest spikes. 

Slower statistical economic growth have already been whetting the steroid addicted financial markets of another rate cute. This should further aggravate the ongoing credit bubble seen in Thai’s private sector and government.

Like Philippines, policy induced bubbles have led Thailand's stock markets to boom. The SET now fast approaches the 1997 highs.

Bottom line: Former PM Shinawatra has his reasoning backward. The rising baht has not been the disease. Rather the rising baht, like the strong Philippine peso accounts for as symptoms. The disease is that of the manipulated boom financed by a credit bubble, fired up by zero bound rates (as shown by explosive growth in private sector loans) and of the intensifying government outlays (which is being funded by ballooning) external debt.

So if Thailand’s government does an Abenomics, a surge in short term interest rates could trigger a debt crisis

Thailand’s credit bubble seems as in a very much advanced state than the Philippines. And this could become the catalyst for a regional contagion.

Déjà vu 1997?

Massive Short Covering Prompts for Gold’s Best Day in 11 Months

The precious metals markets have been experiencing extreme volatility. But the pendulum seems to have suddenly shifted towards the bulls

Here is the Reuters: (bold mine)

Gold and silver prices gained nearly 3 percent on Monday after a roller-coaster session that opened with a gut-wrenching dive in silver to its lowest in 2-1/2 years before an abrupt midday turnaround.

After trading lower through most of the day, gold suddenly lurched more than $10 an ounce higher around noon U.S. time, with traders citing a wave of pent-up short-covering after seven consecutive days of losses. Also, COMEX silver futures had plunged more than 9 percent after a big sell order at the open, triggering technical buy signals, they said.

Yet this is one of the very scanty reports that covered gold’s fantastic one-day bounce. 

It looks like most media, whom has been preaching of "the end of the gold bubble" meme, went into a blackout with gold’s single day comeback. 

I know, this may be a short-term dead cat's bounce.

The chart from the Zero Hedge reveals of the massive intraday swing from a test of the mid-April low to the 3% gain which accounted for as gold’s best day in 11 months

It is interesting to note that gold’s bounce comes amidst a RECORD pile up of Wall Street shorts;

Here is the Bloomberg: (bold mine)

The funds and other large speculators held 74,432 so-called short contracts on May 14, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s the highest since the data begins in June 2006 and compares with 67,374 a week earlier. The net-long position dropped 20 percent to 39,216 futures and options, the lowest since July 2007. Net-bullish wagers across 18 U.S.- traded raw materials rose 1.1 percent to 588,482, led by gains in hogs, corn and cotton.

And this also comes amidst the escalating divergence between the supposedly larger physical markets, but which Wall Street has overpowered through the use of massive leveraged derivatives

More from Bloomberg:

Gold premiums in India, the world’s biggest buyer, more than doubled to $40 an ounce May 15 from $17 to $18 a day earlier, according to Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director at the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. China’s bullion demand jumped to a record 294.3 tons in the first quarter, the World Gold Council said in a report May 16.

India's remarkable doubling of the premium in just a few days has partly been due to the Indian government's stepped up war on gold. 

Nonetheless skyrocketing premiums in the physical markets signifies as the accelerating imbalances between very strong demand and an enfeeble supply coming from reluctant sellers (gold prices are determined by reservation price model and not by consumption)

Here is what makes things interesting; what has prompted for the “wave of pent-up short-covering” in the light of the record position of Wall Street shorts, even as Wall Street’s gold inventories has been rapidly depleting?

While the mainstream attributes the rally to superficial "seen" or "rationalized" factors--such as yesterday’s "reversal of the strength in the US dollar" or "weaker stock markets" or “crowded trade”, could it be that increasing demand for physical deliveries from Wall Street serve as the “unseen” or “invisible” factor?

If the latter holds sway, then the current concerted acts of gold suppression by Wall Street-goverment cabal may be losing its energy.

Things are getting to be more and more interesting.

Abenomics Fails to Spur Business Spending

I recently pointed out that the 3.5% boost in Japan’s statistical GDP has not reflected on real economic growth for the basic reason that monetary policy induced price distortions impede economic calculation and promotes discoordination. And that such growth has merely represented the frontloading of spending actions in view of forthcoming higher taxes.

We have anecdotal proof on this:

From the Bloomberg’s today’s Abe’s Resurgent Japan Hurt by Lack of Business Spending (bold mine)

As Japan’s cherry trees bloomed and the stock market soared, Kohetsu Watanabe flew to a blossom-viewing party in Tokyo hosted by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to tell the premier personally how bad things really are.

When the head of machine-parts maker Daikyo Seiki Co. shook hands with Abe at the 12,000-guest event in Shinjuku Gyoen park, he says he begged the premier to help small- and medium-sized companies that make up 70 percent of Japan’s industry.

“Stocks and the yen may have come back, but the state of the real economy is very different,” said Watanabe, 49, who has no plans to raise wages for his 17 employees and hasn’t paid a bonus since 2008. “It’s impossible for me to be optimistic.”

His company in Akita, northern Japan, highlights the hurdle Abe faces in his quest to end 15 years of deflation and reinstate Japan as a pillar of the global economy. The first two “arrows” of so-called Abenomics, fiscal and monetary stimulus, have caused shares to rise and the yen to slump. While that helps exporters, it means more expensive imported materials and energy for Watanabe. With sales taxes set to rise in April, Abe’s third arrow -- restructuring rules to help businesses -- probably will take too long or be too watered down to prevent a drop in domestic demand next year.

What’s Japan’s real structural problem? From the same article:

With executives such as Watanabe waiting for earnings to improve before raising salaries, that pain may last beyond next year as the government faces opposition to dismantling decades-old policies, such as labor laws that make it difficult to fire workers.

How will such distortive labor regulations be eased by Abenomics?

In his May 17 speech, Abe said he wants to boost private investment to 70 trillion yen ($683 billion) a year -- the level before the 2008 financial crisis -- through deregulation, taxes, spending and equipment-leasing deals. He aims to triple infrastructure exports to about 30 trillion yen by 2020…

Yet the bias for the politicization of the marketplace:

The measures announced so far don’t go far enough, according to Izumi Devalier, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, who says major restructuring is needed in agriculture, health care and labor laws…

“The Cabinet appears to be shying away from deregulation, opting instead to use subsidies and usual government-support programs,” Devalier wrote in a May 14 research note.

Just think of it; how will business investments and domestic demand improve when increasing taxes means a diversion of resources from the private sector to the government? 

Whatever money government spends is money that the private sector won’t be spending. These are called opportunity costs and the crowding out effect from government interventions. 

Yet government spending will be financed by more debt in the light of continuing weak business environment burdened by taxes and constrained by price instability. So Abenomics essentially will compound on her precarious nearly 220% debt to gdp.

Yet the above account shows how the Japanese government refuses to deal with the stringent labor laws that has choked the economy.  

Japan's rigid immigration laws represents as another vitally important structural hindrance which politicians refrain from reforms.

This shows that in politics, there is no such thing as economic logic, thus the tendency to deal with superficialities or treating the symptom rather than the disease.

Well of course, the Abenomics path of “subsidies and usual government-support programs” has been tried and tested since the Japanese bubble imploded in 1990s.

Let me quote in length Douglas French’s narrative of the doing the same thing over and over again yet expecting different results:

The Japanese government didn’t just leave matters to the monetary authorities. Between 1992-1995, it tried six stimulus plans totaling 65.5 trillion yen and even cut tax rates in 1994. It tried cutting taxes again in 1998, but government spending was never cut.

In 1998, another stimulus package of 16.7 trillion yen was rolled out, nearly half of which was for public works projects. Later in the same year, another stimulus package was announced, totaling 23.9 trillion yen. The very next year, an 18 trillion yen stimulus was tried, and in October 2000, another stimulus of 11 trillion yen was announced.

During the 1990s, Japan tried 10 fiscal stimulus packages totaling more than 100 trillion yen, and each failed to cure the recession.

In spring 2001, the BOJ switched to a policy of quantitative easing — targeting the growth of the money supply, instead of nominal interest rates — in order to engineer a rebound in demand growth.

The BOJ’s quantitative easing and large increase in liquidity stopped the fall in land prices by 2003. Japan’s central bank held interest rates at zero until early 2007, when it boosted its discount rate back to 0.5% in two steps by midyear. But the BOJ quickly reverted back to its zero interest rate policy.

In August 2008, the Japanese government unveiled an 11.5 trillion yen stimulus. The package, which included 1.8 trillion yen in new spending and nearly 10 trillion yen in government loans and credit guarantees, was in response to news that the Japanese economy the previous month suffered its biggest contraction in seven years and inflation had topped 2% for the first time in a decade.

In December 2009, Reuters reported, “The Bank of Japan reinforced its commitment to maintain very low interest rates on Friday and set the scene for a further easing of monetary policy to fight deflation. The bank said that it would not tolerate zero inflation or falling prices.”

In a paper for the International Monetary Fund entitled Bank of Japan’s Monetary Easing Measures: Are They Powerful and Comprehensive?, W. Raphael Lam wrote that the BOJ had “expanded its tool kit through a series of monetary easing measures since early 2009.” The BOJ instituted new asset purchase programs allowing the central bank to purchase corporate bonds, commercial paper, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

According to Lam’s work, the BOJ bought 134.8 trillion yen worth of government and corporate paper between December 2008 and August 2011. Lam described the impact of these purchases as “broad-based and comprehensive,” but it failed to impact “inflation expectations.”

For more than two decades, the Japanese central bank and government have emptied the Keynesian tool chest looking for anything that would slay the deflation dragon. Reading the hysterics of the financial press and Japanese central bankers, one would think prices are plunging. Or that borrowers cannot repay loans and the economy is not just at a standstill, but in a tailspin. Tokyo must be one big soup line.

At the end of the day, all the hero worship on Abenomics or Japan inflationism as elixir will turn out badly for the simple reason that, as I recently wrote:

Abenomics operates in an incorrigible self-contradiction: Abenomics has been designed to produce substantial price inflation but expects interest rates at permanently zero bound. Such two variables are like polar opposites. Thus expectations for their harmonious combination are founded on whims rather from economic reality.

Abenomics will advance on Japan’s coming debt crisis.

Video: Peter Schiff: This time it is different, it will be a lot worse

This time is different, it will be a lot worse, says Peter Schiff speaking at the 2013 Las Vegas MoneyShow. 

Mr Schiff's talk covers a wide range of interrelated topics from today's deja vu of 2006 in terms of steroid induced market euphoria, the bond market ponzi scheme, the Fed exit's bluff, manipulation of price inflation and growth statistics, runaway inflation and hyperinflation and the gold bubble (a bubble which ironically hardly anybody from Wall Street owns). (hat tip Lewrockwell.com)

Graphics: Here Comes Super-Abenomics!

From this week’s cover of the Economist magazine.

The worship of inflationists and the religion of inflationism has reached new heights. Yes we are at the pinnacle of the central banking-inflationism bubble.

As the great Ludwig von Mises once wrote, “The favor of the masses and of the writers and politicians eager for applause goes to inflation.”

Yet all such optimism looks nothing new. The following article from the New York Times in March 1999 showcases an almost similar level of optimism where interventionism has been seen as an elixir to Japan’s economy.

Fourteen years after, yet still the hope for political magic to work.