Hot: Swiss National Bank to Embrace Zimbabwe’s Gideon Gono model

The Swiss National Bank has impliedly adapted Zimbabwe’s Central Bank Governor Gideon Gono’s hyperinflationary model.

From Reuters, (bold emphasis mine)

The Swiss National Bank said on Tuesday it would set a minimum exchange rate target of 1.20 francs to the euro and would enforce it by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities.

The Fiat money standard’s race to perdition via competitive devaluation seems to be accelerating.

All these for saving the banking system. As I recently wrote,

Late last week, the US Federal Reserve has extended a $200 million loan facility via currency swap lines to the Swiss National Bank (SNB), as an unidentified European bank reportedly secured a $500 million emergency loan. This essentially validates my suspicion that the so-called currency intervention by the SNB camouflaged its true purpose, i.e. the extension of liquidity to distressed banks, whose woes have been ventilated on the equity markets.

Creative Destruction: The Growing Obsolescence of Postal Service

The US Postal Service is a great example of how vertical hierarchical organizations or political institutions are headed the way of the dinosaurs.

From the New York Times, (bold emphasis mine)

The United States Postal Service has long lived on the financial edge, but it has never been as close to the precipice as it is today: the agency is so low on cash that it will not be able to make a $5.5 billion payment due this month and may have to shut down entirely this winter unless Congress takes emergency action to stabilize its finances.

“Our situation is extremely serious,” the postmaster general, Patrick R. Donahoe, said in an interview. “If Congress doesn’t act, we will default.”

In recent weeks, Mr. Donahoe has been pushing a series of painful cost-cutting measures to erase the agency’s deficit, which will reach $9.2 billion this fiscal year. They include eliminating Saturday mail delivery, closing up to 3,700 postal locations and laying off 120,000 workers — nearly one-fifth of the agency’s work force — despite a no-layoffs clause in the unions’ contracts.

The post office’s problems stem from one hard reality: it is being squeezed on both revenue and costs.

As any computer user knows, the Internet revolution has led to people and businesses sending far less conventional mail.

At the same time, decades of contractual promises made to unionized workers, including no-layoff clauses, are increasing the post office’s costs. Labor represents 80 percent of the agency’s expenses, compared with 53 percent at United Parcel Service and 32 percent at FedEx, its two biggest private competitors. Postal workers also receive more generous health benefits than most other federal employees.

The postal office model represents an artifact of the industrial age. The deepening of the information age or the internet revolution has been rendering such model obsolete. This is creative destruction at work.

This is also a magnificent example of how the internet has been reconfiguring social activities.

Because the postal office is a political institution, organizational inefficiencies have exacerbated its financial woes. This can be seen by the labor heavy share of the agency’s expenses relative to the private sector counterparts. Its existence has palpably been designed to generate votes than to serve the public.

Under current conditions, the agency’s survival entirely depends on taxpayer funding. With the welfare state apparently crumbling from the self-inflicted borrow-tax-spend ways, any imperative to balance the fiscal budget extrapolates to the agency’s prospective extinction or privatization.

The fate of the US postal service and its growing obsolescence will apply around the world.

Joseph Stiglitz: The US Federal Reserve is ‘Corrupt’

From the Huffington Post,

One of the world's leading economists said Wednesday that the very structure of the Federal Reserve system is so fraught with conflicts that it's "corrupt."

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a former chief economist at the World Bank, said that if a country had applied for World Bank aid during his tenure, with a financial regulatory system similar to the Federal Reserve's -- in which regional Feds are partly governed by the very banks they're supposed to police -- it would have raised alarms.

"If we had seen a governance structure that corresponds to our Federal Reserve system, we would have been yelling and screaming and saying that country does not deserve any assistance, this is a corrupt governing structure," Stiglitz said during a conference on financial reform in New York. "It's time for us to reflect on our own structure today, and to say there are parts that can be improved."

Stiglitz made the remarks at a conference held by the Roosevelt Institute. He and other speakers, including Harvard Law Professor and federal bailout watchdog Elizabeth Warren and legendary investor George Soros, had bold ideas about reforming the nation's financial system.

After the conference, Stiglitz said that his remarks on the Fed were "maybe a little hyperbole," but then again made the case that if another country had presented a plan to reform its financial system, and included a regulatory regime that copied the makeup of the Federal Reserve system, "it would have been a big signal that something is wrong."

To Stiglitz, the core issue is that regional Fed banks, such as the New York Fed, have clear conflicts of interest -- a result of the banks being partly governed by a board of directors that includes officers of the very banks they're supposed to be overseeing.

Corruption is a product of arbitrary edicts, fiats or laws which benefits vested interest groups.

Central banking has been institutionalized to safeguard the interests of the welfare-warfare state through the funding mechanism of the banking system. So obviously ‘conflicts of interests’ that leads to corruption has been the institution's conventional trait.

Gold Reclaims $1,900 level

As Europe equities endures another bout of paroxysm today, gold prices race back to reclaim the $ 1,900 level.

Why Capital Standard Regulations Will Fail (Part 2)

In my earlier post, I presented one of the three major arguments on why capital regulation standards won’t live up on its expected role to curb systemic failures.

regulators think that the action of bankers can be restrained by virtue of fiat. They are delusional. They forget that as humans, regulator-banker relationship will be subject to various conflict of interests relationships such as the agency problems, time consistency dilemma, regulatory arbitrage and regulatory capture aspects.

In reality, more politicization of the banking-central banking amplifies systemic fragility.

In a recent paper Cato’s Kevin Dowd, Martin Hutchinson, Simon Ashby, and Jimi M. Hinchliffe writes, (bold emphasis mine)

In this paper, we provide a reassessment of the Basel regime and focus on its most ambitious feature: the principle of “risk-based regulation.” The Basel system suffers from three fundamental weaknesses: first, financial risk modeling provides the flimsiest basis for any system of regulatory capital requirements. The second weakness consists of the incentives it creates for regulatory arbitrage. The third weakness is regulatory capture.

The Basel regime is powerless against the endemic incentives to excessive risk taking that permeate the modern financial system, particularly those associated with government-subsidized risk taking. The financial system can be fixed, but it requires radical reform, including the abolition of central banking and deposit insurance, the repudiation of “too big to fail,” and reforms to extend the personal liability of key decision makers—in effect, reverting back to
a system similar to that which existed a century ago.

The Basel system provides a textbook example of the dangers of regulatory empire building and regulatory capture, and the underlying problem it addresses—how to strengthen the banking system—can only be solved by restoring appropriate incentives for those involved.

So the Cato study essentially echoes my insights.

For me, ‘regulatory empire building’ signifies as the conventional political process that has been designed to promote and sustain a welfare-warfare state. The welfare-warfare state depends on the de facto fiat paper money platform that basically operates on a central banking-banking industry cartel, which funnels much of the funds from the private sector to the political class (financial repression).

The Basel system essentially institutionalizes such operating framework. Capital standard regulations applied to the global banking system which assigns government bonds as ‘risk free’, which requires banks to finance government spending by holding sovereign liabilities into their balance sheets, has been backfiring on the back of unsustainable economics of the welfare-warfare state. Economics cannot be dictated by fiat or by legislation.

The financial system can indeed be fixed, but I think, it will take a a major systemic collapse for the political incentives to change.

In the meantime, politicians around the world will invariably resort to various band-aid, kool aid and ‘extend and pretend’ measures in response to any emergent problems. This will continue to accrue strains into the fragile incumbent operating system.

Let me repeat, politicization of the banking and financial industry will amplify, and not reduce, systemic fragility.

Genuine reforms must be directed towards empowering the markets over politics.

Hot: Wikileaks Exposes Gold Price Suppression

Writes Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer of Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. (GATA), published at the goldseek.com (bold emphasis mine)

China knows that the U.S. government and its allies in Western Europe strive to suppress the price of gold, and the U.S. government knows that China knows, according to a 2009 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington.

The cable, published in the latest batch of U.S. State Department cables obtained by Wikileaks, summarizes several commentaries in Chinese news media on April 28, 2009. One of those commentaries is attributed to the Chinese newspaper Shijie Xinwenbao (World News Journal), published by the Chinese government's foreign radio service, China Radio International. The cable's summary reads:

"According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration, China's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the United States and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi."

It's hard to believe that, two years later, China is still leaving so much of its gold with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England when even little Venezuela has publicly figured out the gold price suppression component of the Western fractional reserve banking system and is attempting to repatriate its gold from the Bank of England and various Western bullion banks:

http://www.gata.org/node/10281

http://www.gata.org/node/10286

It is already a matter of record that China dissembled about its gold reserves for the six years prior to the public recalculation of its gold reserves in April 2009 that prompted the commentary in Shijie Xinwenbao. At that time China announced that its gold reserves were not the 600 tonnes it had been reporting each year for the previous six years but rather 76 percent more, 1,054 tonnes:

http://www.gata.org/node/9545

ZeroHedge, which seems to have broken the story of the Beijing embassy cable this evening, comments:

"Wondering why gold at $1,850 is cheap, or why gold at double that price will also be cheap, or, frankly, at any price? Because, as the following leaked cable explains, gold is, to China at least, nothing but the opportunity cost of destroying the dollar's reserve status. Putting that into dollar terms is, therefore, impractical at best and illogical at worst. We have a suspicion that the following cable from the U.S. embassy in China is about to go not viral but very much global, and prompt all those mutual fund managers who are on the golden sidelines to dip a toe in the 24-karat pool."

The ZeroHedge commentary can be found here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wikileaks-discloses-reasons-behind-chinas-...

In addition to fund managers throughout the world, this cable may be of special interest to the gold bears CPM Group Managing Director Jeff Christian, who says he consults with most central banks and that they hardly ever think about gold, and Kitco senior analyst Jon Nadler, who insists that central banks have no interest whatsover in manipulating the gold price.

In fact, of course, gold remains the secret knowledge of the financial universe, and its price is actually the determinant of every other price and value in the world.

The Beijing embassy cable can be found here:

http://cables.mrkva.eu/cable.php?id=204405

And, just in case, at GATA's Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/USEmbassyBeijingCable-04-28-2011.txt

This only exhibits how the welfare-warfare state-central banking-banking cartel have been deeply averse to reinstate a sound money regime which extrapolates to a dilution of their political power, and thus the continuing saga of the war on gold (sound money) and on free markets.

Graphic: Interpreting Reality

I am still working on normalizing my computer, so my weekly stock market posting will hopefully resume by next weekend.

For the meantime, enjoy this great graphic from David Shrigley at ilovecharts.tumblr.com, which I labeled as 'interpreting reality'.

Does Rising Global Middle Class Presage Growing Demand for Classical Liberalism?

Globalization seems to have brought about a significant surge in the number of middle class.

Chart from the Economist

As a political force, the role of the middle class has been transitioning from one of passivism into activism.

The Economist notes, (bold highlights mine)

In rich countries the humbling of governments has been largely a result of economic slowdown, combined with problems in controlling public finances. Emerging markets, in contrast, have kept growth going, while public spending is (mostly) under control. The explanation for their political woes must lie elsewhere. The most plausible one is that India and China—and possibly other emerging markets, too—are experiencing the early stirrings of political demands by the growing ranks of their middle classes…

Polling evidence says middle-class values are distinctive. In a survey of 13 emerging markets by the Pew Global Attitudes Project in Washington, DC, the middle classes consistently give more weight to free speech and fair elections than do the poor, who are more concerned than the middle class about freedom from poverty. These differences hardly come as a shock. But they still matter because they mean that as the middle class grows, abstract ideas about governance come to play a bigger role in politics.

For now their focus has mostly been in the politics of corruption (bold emphasis mine)

There is no single explanation for the new middle-class activism. Given the rise in their numbers, it was probably bound to happen at some point. The spread of micro-blogging services has surely made some difference. Sina Weibo claims 140m users, mostly from China’s urban middle class. They posted 10m messages about the rail crash within days. The emerging giants have lost some of their economic sizzle lately, which might have had an effect—not (as in the West) by cutting jobs and government services, but by casting doubts on the cult of growth. Some observers (including, it seems, the Chinese Communist Party) have even worried that demonstrators might be emboldened to copy the Arab spring, though that seems far-fetched.

In contrast to the unrest in Middle Eastern countries, the middle-class activism of India and China is not aimed at bringing governments down. Rather, a narrower concern animates them: corruption…

This focus on corruption suggests that, at the moment, middle-class activism is a protest movement rather than a political force in the broader sense. It is an attempt to reform the government, not replace it. But that could change. In most middle-income countries, corruption is more than just a matter of criminality; it is also the product of an old way of doing politics, one that is unaccountable, untransparent and undemocratic. Ashutosh Varshney, at the Institute of Social and Economic Change in Bangalore, also argues that richer Indians resent corruption less because of the money wasted—which they can afford—than because they want clean government for its own sake: “the middle class is asserting its citizenship right to get government services without a bribe.”

As wealth from globalization expands and diffuses, it is likely that the desire for political freedom would follow. Such dynamic appears to be epitomized by the seminal focus on free speech, ‘fair’ elections and corruption free governance.

Yet again, the internet (via the blogsphere) has been proving to be a potent force in influencing such changes.

As the great Ludwig von Mises wrote (Planning for Freedom p.38),

The idea that political freedom can be preserved in the absence of economic freedom, and vice versa, is an illusion. Political freedom is the corollary of economic freedom. It is no accident that the age of capitalism became also the age of government by the people. If individuals are not free to buy and to sell on the market, they turn into virtual slaves dependent on the good graces of the omnipotent government, whatever the wording of the constitution may be.

In my view, the trend towards Classical liberalism seem to be seguing from the fringes towards the mainstream.

Quote of the Day: Nassim Taleb on Bankers Ethics

Celebrated author of the Black Swan theory fame Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Spitznagel questions the propriety of nearly $5 trillion paid to bankers, who continues to operate on the model of privatizing profits and socializing losses.

They write, (bold emphasis mine)

One may wonder: If investment managers and their clients don’t receive high returns on bank stocks, as they would if they were profiting from bankers’ externalization of risk onto taxpayers, why do they hold them at all? The answer is the so-called “beta”: banks represent a large share of the S&P 500, and managers need to be invested in them.

We don’t believe that regulation is a panacea for this state of affairs. The largest, most sophisticated banks have become expert at remaining one step ahead of regulators – constantly creating complex financial products and derivatives that skirt the letter of the rules. In these circumstances, more complicated regulations merely mean more billable hours for lawyers, more income for regulators switching sides, and more profits for derivatives traders.

Investment managers have a moral and professional responsibility to play their role in bringing some discipline into the banking system.

So ad hoc conventionalism or peer pressures have been one of the key influences for the financial industry to shore up bank equities, which apparently has resulted to the unethical banking practices brought about by the sense of entitlement and moral hazard from continued government support.

Obviously this has been part of the comprehensive framework to buttress the decadent welfare state-central banking-banking system architecture.

Read the rest of their excellent piece here

More Signs of Decentralization: Europe Eyes Liberalization of Professions

Speaking of centralized forces giving way to decentralization, here is another very important development—parts of Europe now plans to liberalize professions

This from Bloomberg,

While Greece started lifting the legal shield for more than 150 jobs two months ago, Italy retains restrictions on who can enter professions. Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi plans to strip away the protection as he tries to avert a debt crisis by revitalizing an economy that’s trailed the average growth rate for the euro region since its formation.

Fostering competition across the economy would boost growth by as much as 1.8 percentage points a year, according to Antonio Catricala, head of the country’s Antitrust Authority. That includes protected groups such as pharmacists, notaries, accountants and taxi drivers.

“A liberalization of professions and more in general of the whole economy may lead to additional growth,” Catricala said in a telephone interview. More competition would “have a positive impact on employment,” as joblessness among young people is about 30 percent, he said...

The parliament in Rome will vote as early as next week on a plan passed by Berlusconi’s cabinet on Aug. 12 that commits lawmakers to liberalizing the professions within a year. Some barriers, such as compulsory membership of professional groups and tests to join, would require changes to the constitution.

Important changes have been happening at the margins. Such transition would not be smooth though, as many entrenched forces will fight to preserve the status quo.

How the Information Age Affects Asian Banking

The McKinsey Quarterly writes, (bold emphasis mine)

Banks doing business in Asia face rapidly changing consumer behavior, with big consequences for both local and multinational institutions. Consumers increasingly prefer local banks over multinationals, are less loyal to existing banking relationships, are much more cautious about borrowing, and are more open to Internet and mobile banking. These shifts in the nature of banking relationships, product and service needs, and channels are reflected in a 2011 McKinsey survey of 20,000 consumers in 13 Asian markets...

Asian consumers are being weaned from brick-and-mortar branches: for the first time since McKinsey began conducting the survey, 13 years ago, bank branch usage has dropped, plunging by 27 percent on average across Asia between 2007 and 2011.

This drop has been matched by an uptick in Internet and mobile banking, a trend particularly pronounced in developed Asian markets, such as Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. There, consumers now use new channels, such as the Internet and mobile devices, for their banking more often than traditional ones, such as telephones and branches: the use of new channels rose to 3.2 times a month in 2011, from 2.35 in 2007, while that of traditional channels dropped to 2.57 times a month, from 3.5. In China, about 18 percent of all people who patronize banks now use Internet banking, compared with only 3 percent in 2007.

That shift arises largely from the increased penetration of remote channels. A growing number of customers across income segments are getting accustomed to and comfortable with them for both sales and service. The multichannel environment has thus become a reality: our research highlights the fact that, on average, Asian consumers are using as many as 5 channels for research and 1.8 channels for maintenance.

Some comments

The rapid shift in the preferences of Asian consumers reveals of the increasing personalization or specialization of markets. This extrapolates to an intensifying trend of de-massification of financial services towards niche markets or a transition from products and services designed for the masses towards decentralization or localization. Providers who cannot cope will this seismic development will perish. This is the forces of creative destruction at work.

And this paradigm shift is being enabled and facilitated by the internet which again exhibits how the web revolution has immensely been affecting people’s lifestyle.

In addition, this is another proof that people are getting to be more sophisticated with an extended reach or access to information.

This also means more value added services for the increasingly discriminate consumers.

The forces of centralization seems to be paving way for reign of the forces of decentralization.

The great F. A. Hayek’s knowledge revolution is underway.

P.S. My computer hasn't normalized yet so my post will remain limited

Asian Capital Markets Likely a Beneficiary of Europe’s High Taxes and Regulatory Maze

“If you tax something, you get less of it”, that’s Professor Mark Perry’s Economics 101

The following should be a great example, from Bloomberg, (bold highlights mine)

Banks in Europe are exploring ways to cut costs by routing more of their trades and other business through overseas subsidiaries, a plan that may shift tax revenue away from London and loosen European regulators’ influence over the lenders.

Nomura Holdings Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA) and UBS AG (UBSN) are among lenders preparing plans to book as much business as possible through legal entities in jurisdictions where tax rates are lower and rules on capital and liquidity are less onerous, the banks and lawyers and accountants working with them say.

“Every bank is trying to work out the best way to be structured under the new rules,” Chris Matten, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in Singapore, said in a telephone interview. “It’s not just a question of what activities banks are in. It’s about which entities they put that business through and in which jurisdictions.”

Banks could record as much as 30 percent of the value of their trades through Hong Kong, Singapore and other jurisdictions instead of hubs such as London and New York without running into trouble with regulators, Matten said. Such a move would hurt traditional hubs such as London because assets are treated for tax and regulatory purposes in the country where they are booked. It would also allow banks to sidestep the U.K. bank levy, introduced last year to raise 2.5 billion pounds ($4.1 billion) from lenders operating in Britain, as well as any financial transaction tax imposed by the European Union.

This is one major lesson politicians and their followers can’t seem to digest, absorb or learn.

Nevertheless, this is also one major factor that could drive funds and the banking business to Asia.

Their loss could be our gain, that’s if we heed of the fundamental truism shown above.

Quote of the Day: Ludwig von Mises on Fascism

Fascism, as defined by dictionary.com, is a government system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc…, and emphasizing on aggressive nationalism and often racism

In today’s political environment, here and abroad, almost all aspects of civil and economic liberties have been under assault from the gradualist expansion of implicit fascism; think bailouts, QEs, manipulated interest rates, war on commodities, bans on short sales, smoking, anti-smoke belching and etc…

Nevertheless, this prescient block quote from the great Ludwig von Mises written in 1927 runs valid today [Liberalism, The Argument of Fascism, Chapter 1 Section 10]

What distinguishes liberal from Fascist political tactics is not a difference of opinion in regard to the necessity of using armed force to resist armed attackers, but a difference in the fundamental estimation of the role of violence in a struggle for power. The great danger threatening domestic policy from the side of Fascism lies in its complete faith in the decisive power of violence. In order to assure success, one must be imbued with the will to victory and always proceed violently. This is its highest principle. What happens, however, when one's opponent, similarly animated by the will to be victorious, acts just as violently? The result must be a battle, a civil war. The ultimate victor to emerge from such conflicts will be the faction strongest in number. In the long run, a minority -- even if it is composed of the most capable and energetic -- cannot succeed in resisting the majority. The decisive question, therefore, always remains: How does one obtain a majority for one's own party? This, however, is a purely intellectual matter. It is a victory that can be won only with the weapons of the intellect, never by force. The suppression of all opposition by sheer violence is a most unsuitable way to win adherents to one's cause. Resort to naked force -- that is, without justification in terms of intellectual arguments accepted by public opinion -- merely gains new friends for those whom one is thereby trying to combat. In a battle between force and an idea, the latter always prevails.

Fascism can triumph today because universal indignation at the infamies committed by the socialists and communists has obtained for it the sympathies of wide circles. But when the fresh impression of the crimes of the Bolsheviks has paled, the socialist program will once again exercise its power of attraction on the masses. For Fascism does nothing to combat it except to suppress socialist ideas and to persecute the people who spread them. If it wanted really to combat socialism, it would have to oppose it with ideas. There is, however, only one idea that can be effectively opposed to socialism, viz., that of liberalism.

It has often been said that nothing furthers a cause more than creating, martyrs for it. This is only approximately correct. What strengthens the cause of the persecuted faction is not the martyrdom of its adherents, but the fact that they are being attacked by force, and not by intellectual weapons. Repression by brute force is always a confession of the inability to make use of the better weapons of the intellect -- better because they alone give promise of final success. This is the fundamental error from which Fascism suffers and which will ultimately cause its downfall. The victory of Fascism in a number of countries is only an episode in the long series of struggles over the problem of property. The next episode will be the victory of Communism. The ultimate outcome of the struggle, however, will not be decided by arms, but by ideas. It is ideas that group men into fighting factions, that press the weapons into their hands, and that determine against whom and for whom the weapons shall be used. It is they alone, and not arms, that, in the last analysis, turn the scales.

So much for the domestic policy of Fascism. That its foreign policy, based as it is on the avowed principle of force in international relations, cannot fail to give rise to an endless series of wars that must destroy all of modern civilization requires no further discussion. To maintain and further raise our present level of economic development, peace among nations must be assured. But they cannot live together in peace if the basic tenet of the ideology by which they are governed is the belief that one's own nation can secure its place in the community of nations by force alone.

It cannot be denied that Fascism and similar movements aiming at the establishment of dictatorships are full of the best intentions and that their intervention has, for the moment, saved European civilization. The merit that Fascism has thereby won for itself will live on eternally in history. But though its policy has brought salvation for the moment, it is not of the kind which could promise continued success. Fascism was an emergency makeshift. To view it as something more would be a fatal error.

Intellect versus force, that’s the essence of classical liberalism.

"Tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito", this favorite quote of Prof von Mises comes from Vigil which means "do not give into evil but proceed ever more boldly against it".

Hat tip: Cato’s Jason Kuznicki

P-Noy’s Entourage is a Showcase of the Philippine Political Economy

“As a society, culturally we get what we celebrate”, that’s how prolific Forbes nanotech analyst-writer Josh Wolfe describes the importance of role models in shaping society.

Who we celebrate essentially reflects on our actions. For instance, if we worship politicians and celebrities, we tend to follow their actions. Our time orientation would narrow to match with theirs.

And having a short term time preference means we value today more than the future, thus we would be predisposed to indulge in gambling, hedonistic (high risk but self gratifying) activities and political actions that would dovetail with such values.

However, if we see entrepreneurs or scientists as our role models then we are likely to value the future more than today. We would learn of the essence of savings, capital accumulation and trade.

What has this got to do with P-Noy’s trip to China? A lot.

President Aquino’s entourage simply is a showcase of how the Philippine political economy works.

From today’s Inquirer

Underlining the trade and investment slant of his state visit to China, President Benigno Aquino III arrived here with a 270-strong business delegation, including the Philippines’ top industry leaders.

It is the biggest business contingent of Mr. Aquino’s foreign trips.

And for what stated reason? Newswires say this is meant to secure $60 billion worth of investments.

According to Bloomberg,

The Philippines may secure as much as $60 billion in Chinese investments under a five-year plan to be signed during Aquino’s stay, Christine Ortega, assistant secretary for foreign affairs, told reporters in Manila on Aug. 24. This trip alone may bring $7 billion in commitments, Trade Undersecretary Cristino Panlilio told reporters in Beijing yesterday…

Aquino is counting on investments to boost economic growth that slowed for a fourth straight quarter. Gross domestic product increased 3.4 percent in the three months through June from a year earlier, from a revised 4.6 percent in the first quarter, the National Statistical Coordination Board said today.

Lagging Investments

Net foreign direct investment in the Philippines fell 13 percent to $1.7 billion in 2010 from a year earlier, the central bank said in March. Between 1970 to 2009, the country lured $32.3 billion in FDI, compared with $104.1 billion for Thailand, according to United Nations data.

Higher returns on investments will come from resources “that have been untapped for such a long time,” Aquino said in an Aug. 18 interview, citing plans to explore for energy in the South China Sea. Two of 15 blocks put out for tender in June are in waters China claims.

The Philippines plans to boost hydrocarbon reserves by 40 percent in the next two decades. Mineral fuels accounted for 17 percent of total monthly imports on average last year, from 11 percent in 2000, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“We want to resolve the conflicting claims so that we can have our own gas,” Aquino said Aug. 29. “Once we have our own, we will not be affected by events in other parts of the world.”

First of all it isn’t true that the Philippines have little access to $60 billion worth of funds for investment.

In fact, the Philippines has a disproportion of savings to investment as shown below.

National savings alone is almost enough to bankroll these required investments (charts above and below from ADB)

Yet this doesn’t even count other domestic assets which can be used as collateral or as alternative sources for funding.

The Philippine Equity markets had a market cap of $202 billion as of the last trading day of 2010.

Foreigners hold around 20% of the market cap; even assuming 50% foreign ownership that’s still $100 billion worth of potential collateral.

And we also have the corporate bond markets (4.1% of GDP) and vast property assets which because of the lack of secured property rights, around 67% of rural residents in the Philippines live in housing that is considered as ‘dead capital’ which is worth about $133 billion Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto estimated in 2001 in his book, the Mystery of Capital

In other words, many of the big shot investors who went with P-Noy do not see sufficient returns on their investments, hence have been reluctant to deploy their savings on local investments.

They instead went with the President to supposedly seek out “partners” to 'spread the risks'.

On the other hand, these business honchos will likely use this opportunity to invest overseas!

Why then the lack of domestic investments?

Aside from the lack or insufficient protection of property rights, a very important hurdle to investments is simply the inhospitable environment for investors.

As the table above shows, the Philippine economy has been strangled or choked by politics.

So bringing in a high powered presidential entourage won’t help unless there would be dramatic structural reforms on our political institutions that would encourage profitable investments.

Most of the deals that would be obtained from this trip will likely be political privileges or concessions (most possibly backed by implicit guarantees from the Philippine government).

This brings us to the significance of role models.

Essentially, P-Noy sees big business as the main way to entice investments or reinvigorate the economy, hence this star-studded retinue (could this be a junket??)

Why leave out the public, when I would presuppose that much of the investable savings are held by them? Is it because that, as his political supporters, this would serve as the ripe opportunity to be rewarded (with state induced deals)?

Or is this authorative show of force simply been about showmanship? (Public choice theory is right again showing how politicians are attracted to symbolisms to promote their self interests)

Bottom line: P-Noy’s China trip reveals of the essence of the Philippine political economy; economic opportunities allocated or provided for by the state.

In short, state or crony capitalism.

Asians are World’s Top Blog Readers

That’s according to Comscore.com

Global analysis of the Blog category revealed that Japan led all markets in blog engagement, with the average visitor in Japan spending more than an hour (62.6 minutes) visiting blogs in June. South Korea ranked second with an average of 49.6 minutes on blog sites, followed by Poland at 47.7 minutes.

Japan was also among the top markets for Blog category penetration with 80.5 percent of its online population visiting blogs in June. Taiwan ranked highest globally with 85.5 percent of its online population visiting blogs, followed by Brazil (85.2 percent reach), South Korea (84.9 percent reach) and Turkey (81.9 percent reach).

There could be many interpretations from the above survey.

For one it shows of the deepening extent of web based information acquisition most possibly at the expense of traditional media.

Another, the breadth of readership has been globalized and has not been limited to developed economies.

Next, more and more people are learning to appreciate blogs as one of the principal web based sources of information.

From a marketing point of view, the above represents as high growth markets which any enterprising bloggers could capitalize on.

Lastly, the above dynamics can be seen as increasing manifestations of the democratization of information and knowledge, or of the intensification of the information or knowledge revolution.

As the great Friedrich von Hayek once wrote,

The economic problem of society is thus not merely a problem of how to allocate "given" resources—if "given" is taken to mean given to a single mind which deliberately solves the problem set by these "data." It is rather a problem of how to secure the best use of resources known to any of the members of society, for ends whose relative importance only these individuals know. Or, to put it briefly, it is a problem of the utilization of knowledge which is not given to anyone in its totality.

The knowledge revolution should serve as catalysts to the development of transformational ideas that could promote innovation via the ‘Bourgeois revaluation’ or heightened appreciation of the benefits of free market or laissez faire capitalism.

The knowledge revolution and increased social connectivity should also deepen specialization (division of labor) and encourage more voluntary trade and commerce.

And importantly, attune greater number of people towards more decentralized path or way of social interactions, which alternatively means to wean away from the vertical flow (e.g. mass education, mass media) or structures (e.g. centralized bureaucracies, mass production) or lifestyles (e.g. 9-5 work schedules, mass cultures) derived from the industrial age template.

These material changes are hardly appreciated by the public but will persist as the world evolves.

UPDATE: My blog's readership departs from the comscore survey, where most of my readers come from Northern America, UK and the Philippines, as one would observe from the lower right column of this blog. My experience may be shared by many local bloggers too.

Nonetheless my comments above have been mostly premised on the comscore survey.

Third Week for ECB’s QE: 6.7 billion Euros

Last week accounted for the third week where the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Quantitative Easing (QE) has been in action.

This from Reuters, (bold emphasis mine)

The ECB said on Monday it had more than halved its bond purchases to 6.7 billion euros last week. The central bank had bought a record 22 billion euros in the week to Aug. 12, when it intervened in the bond market after 19 weeks of inactivity.

Continued support from the central bank remains crucial to prop up investors' confidence in the short-term, analysts and traders said, amid uncertainties over a second bailout package for Greece.

Adding to markets' jitters, Italy is struggling to agree changes to a 45.5 billion euro austerity package the government hastily approved this month in return for the ECB's help and which is making its way through parliament.

"Italy needs to convince the market it can make it without help from the ECB," Cazzulani said.

This follows the previous two weeks of €22 billion and €14.3 billion of bond buying where ECB’s debt monetization facility has now reached €120.3 billion, according to Zero Hedge.

The above news account only exhibits that global financial markets have been artificially propped up by actions of major global central banks, in the hope that markets will be assuaged by the political tokenism applied by crisis affected governments in reforming their system.

The fact is that there hardly has been any meaningful free market reforms or reforms aimed to improve on the real economy. Resources are, in this process, merely being rechanneled or transferred from the welfare state to the banking system.

The underlying goal has been to preserve the banking system, which has over the years bankrolled the welfare state, through government bonds. And the welfare state-banking system relationship has been backed, regulated and implicitly guaranteed by the central banks.

Professor Gary North aptly writes,

Governments always announce and defend by monopolistic violence their legal sovereignty over money. They say that they will control the terms of exchange. All monetary standards are based on government promises and IOUs called government bonds. These contracts are always broken by governments.

Contracts are being broken consistently as governments’ inflate in order to uphold the current welfare based political system.

A system that depends on inflation is never sustainable.

Apples to Oranges: The Gold-Stock Market Spread

[Note: I am operating from a borrowed computer]

Stocks are cheap when seen from gold, that’s according to some experts.

From Bloomberg’s chart of the day,

The CHART OF THE DAY shows the price spread between the SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund that tracks bullion, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, a fund which mimics the performance of the 30 stocks in the index. The premium widened by the most since the fund for the precious metal was started in November 2004.

Gold surged to an all-time high above $1,900 an ounce last week, pushing the value of bullion to $9.1 trillion based on cumulative supply, or about 2.75 times the market capitalization of companies in the Dow index, said John Wadle, head of regional banks research at the Hong Kong unit of Mirae Asset. Companies in the U.S. equities gauge have an average dividend yield of 2.7 percent and trade at 11.3 times estimated earnings as of Aug. 25, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Gold is now a bubble compared with U.S. blue-chip stocks,” Wadle said in an e-mail in response to questions from Bloomberg. U.S. equities are “massively undervalued” based on future dividend yields of more than 3 percent, compared with no investment yields and storage costs associated with gold, he said in a report. Billionaire George Soros cut his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust this year as prices rallied, while Paulson & Co., the hedge fund run by John Paulson, remained the largest holder, according to regulatory filings this month.

This represents apples to oranges comparison.

First of all, the stock market essentially operates from the premise of risk relative to rewards or returns from expected streams of future business revenues. There is no revenue stream or cash flow for gold.

Second, current policies maintained by governments have been to serially inflate bubbles. The main effect has been continued volatility in the stock markets.

Meanwhile price actions of gold have been manifesting the chronic malady from the cumulative effects of such political actions.

Third, there has hardly been a bubble in gold prices. The bubble is in paper money, government bonds and the tripartite 20^th century designed political institutions functioning on the cartelized system of the welfare-warfare state, the central banks and the politically privileged banking system.

Fourth, gold prices have been more correlated with actions of the stock market, than used as a measure against it.

As I recently wrote,

Gold prices seems as in a cyclical downturn, that's because of sharply OVERBOUGHT conditions. On the other hand, global stock markets has been on a bounce largely due to OVERSOLD conditions (backed by expectations of added steroids).

The correlations of Gold and equity markets has been predominantly positive, where gold prices has risen in the backdrop of rising equity markets, except for the past quarter (sorry I am operating in an internet cafe, that's why I can't attach charts to give evidence).

That evidence can be seen in the above chart, where the flow of gold prices has essentially mirrored the actions of the S&P 500 (see blue lline) for the past 3 years. Such correlation can even be seen in the Philippine Phisix below.

It is only during the last quarter where such correlations (see red ellipse) has broken down.

True, correlations between assets perpetually changes as people’s actions respond to changes in the environment and to changes in the incentives that underpins their actions.

But the point here is it would seem unworthy to compare gold (what can be seen as money) with conventional risk assets as stocks or bonds and infer recommendations based on flimsy grounds.

Fox News Interview: Ron Paul Explains the Austrian School of Economics

At this Fox interview, Presidential candidate Ron Paul deals with the coming elections, the Fema, US Foreign policy and the Austrian School of economics (hat tip Bob Wenzel)

The Twilight Age of the Aircraft Carriers

Even the course of conventional-traditional warfare will be adapting to the ever changing realities. Vastly technology-enhanced anti-ship ballistic missile will render aircraft carriers obsolete

Writes Eric Margolis,

Batteries of DF-21D’s based safely inland may keep the US Navy far off China’s coasts, isolate Taiwan, and threaten US bases in Japan, Okinawa and Guam. In fact, the mere existence of the DF-21D’s and their deployment in sizeable numbers may be enough to keep US carriers at least 2,000 km from China’s coasts, thus beyond the useful range of the carrier’s strike aircraft…

But anti-ship missiles are lethal to carriers. Layered anti-ship missile defense can stop small number of attacking missiles. But if enough high-speed missiles are fired, and from different directions, at least one or two will permeate carrier and escort defenses.

Just one missile, filled with explosives and fuel, hitting a carrier will cause massive damage and fires that will put the great capitol ship out of action. I have joined numerous naval warfare simulations: in almost every case, some anti-ship missiles fired by enemy aircraft and subs inevitably leaked through layered defenses and hit the carriers. Each carrier and its escorts costs over $25 billion (not including its aircraft). They simply cannot be risked against relatively inexpensive Chinese missiles.

Officially, the US Navy denies claims its beloved carriers are increasingly vulnerable. The Navy’s brass is dominated by former naval aviators, just as the pre-war US Navy was run by battleship admirals. There is huge institutional bias against abandoning big attack carriers, just as there is bitter Navy and Air Force opposition to abandoning manned fighter aircraft and relying on drones.

Which makes all the more amazing an article in the May 2011 issue of the US Naval Institute Proceedings (for which I’ve written) by two Pentagon strategists urging an immediate end to building aircraft carriers, “Proceedings” is the voice of the US naval establishment.

For this heresy to be printed is a bombshell. But a needed one. It’s time the US Navy face facts and plan for the obsolescence of its attack carriers. There will still be a role for smaller carriers carrying drones and helicopters, but in wartime, the days of the mighty flattop that won the epic WWII victories at Midway and the Marianas are over.

Aircraft carriers signify as artifacts of the industrial age warfare. The information age (Third Wave) will radically change even the methods of engagement of military conflicts.

Global Central Bankers Call For Fiscal Expansion

Central bankers don’t want to take the entire burden of reflating their respective economies.

From Bloomberg, (bold emphasis mine)

Central bankers gathered at an annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this weekend had a message for political leaders: monetary policy alone can’t keep the global expansion going.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke urged adoption of “good, proactive housing policies” to reverse the depressed U.S. real estate market and warned lawmakers to avoid steps that may hurt short-term growth. Ewald Nowotny of the European Central Bank Governing Council said euro-area governments should expand the powers of their regional bailout fund.

“Most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank,” Bernanke said at the annual conference of policy makers and economists, sponsored by the Kansas City Fed.

The call to arms ended a month in which the Fed and the ECB raced to shield their economies from fiscal tightening and strengthen a world economy that is losing momentum…

Warning of a “dangerous new phase” for the world economy, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde told the forum that risks have been aggravated by “a growing sense that policy makers do not have the conviction, or simply are not willing, to take the decisions that are needed.”

‘Twin Perils’

“Fiscal policy must navigate between the twin perils of losing credibility and undercutting recovery,” said Lagarde, who took the helm of the IMF in July.

Bernanke told the conference that the U.S. central bank still has a “range of tools” it could use to help the economy if needed, although he stopped short of signaling that the Fed would embark on a third round of government bond buying.

Central bankers essentially want global governments to reengage in expansionary fiscal actions or the euphemism for increasing government spending.

Regardless of whether this has proven to be effective or not, for policymakers what has been more important is the MEANS (borrow, tax and or inflate to spend) to attain an END (recovery).

Monumental amounts of money (or resources) have been thrown into the system since 2008 (or in about 3 years), yet the economic recovery of crisis-afflicted nations has continued to stagger.

This only shows that for policymakers, only the short term impact matters.

Never mind if most of these stimulus programs would end up in waste. Wasted resources represent consumed capital which is an obstacle to a real recovery.

Never mind if these measures would only be funnelled to the pockets of vested interest groups such as the politically privileged banking sector or the military industrial complex. The political redistribution of resources would only translate to the furtherance of political, wealth and social inequalities which many mistakenly blame on laissez faire capitalism, when in truth it has been crony or state capitalism, particularly the cartelized system of welfare-warfare government-central banking-banking system and the preservation of which, that has been responsible for the current mess.

Never mind if higher taxes would be another important consequence from such actions. Yet high taxes would serve as another vital impediment to genuine recovery overtime.

Never mind that in combination with central bank activities these activities would cause a surge in consumer prices that would not only hamper economic recovery but also stoke geopolitical and domestic destabilization since inflationism distorts economic calculation and impairs the division of labor.

The world has been continually living off from steroids provided for by the governments. These are symptoms of a rapidly degenerating system.

Ayn Rand said it best,

When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion - when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - when you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don't protect you against them, but protect them against you - when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - you may know that your society is doomed.

Such charades won’t last.

The Broken Window Fallacy as seen from my Damaged Computer

If there is anything I can share with you this week, it is the practical economic lessons from the broken window fallacy as seen from my continuing anguish with my damaged computer.

For now, there are two possible alternatives to my computer dilemma: hope that the repair turns out fine and done soonest, or that I may be forced to acquire a new one.

Over the past few days, the activities of my post computer crash life has revolved around

plying back and forth to the repair center by use of cabs,

getting limited access to the web from several internet café

taking meals outside in support of the above

For people who see destruction as a way of prosperity, they would focus on the money I would be spending on the repair center (if repaired) or the retail outfit and the computer manufacturer (if replacement) and the ancillary costs of these activities—taxi fare, computer rental fees and meals from vendors--as helping the economy.

However they would ignore or downplay the impact of my losses.

For me, money spent for either repair or replacement and all of the additional costs would have been money meant to buy a pair of new shoes or a new tablet.

This means that instead of my normal computer AND a new pair of shoes, or my normal computer AND a new tablet, at the end of the day, I would only have a ‘normal’ computer. Or the opportunity cost from my actions to repair or replace the existing damaged computer is a pair of shoes or a tablet. Instead of TWO goods I end up with one. So there is NO value added from the repair or the replacement.

In addition, as I await the verdict of the computer service center, my output has been vastly reduced. I can only make 1 post on my blog, where I usually make an average of 3 per day, and importantly, I wouldn’t be sending any weekend reports to my clients. So productivity has likewise been affected.

[Aside, my savings has allowed me to consider the two options, if I had no savings I would be at a total loss.]

I also have not been on track with what’s been happening on the global financial markets, as I told my principals that I would be ‘trading blind’. Such dislocation has brought me a great deal of distress. You see, the web has altered my way of living such that I have been become greatly dependent on it. This brings about the adverse mental aspects from such displacement or losses.

While these may represent as my personal issues, when amplified as natural or manmade disasters you would notice that destruction doesn’t lead to prosperity. While some economic agents may indeed prosper from such misfortune, the overall the damage would be greater than the peripheral benefits.

Statistics cannot articulate the mental and emotional strains and real productivity and purchasing power losses from the economics of destruction. Be leery of anyone who tells you so.