Asia as the World’s Precious Metal Hub: Singapore Cuts Taxes on Gold as Hong Kong Adds Storage Facilities

Asia will likely become the world’s gold hub soon. That’s because key Asian countries as Hong Kong and Singapore (as well China) have been taking substantial steps to attract gold and other precious metals trades.

First, Singapore recently cut taxes on precious metals

From Mineweb.com

Singapore has repealed a 7% tax on investment-grade gold and other precious metals to spur the development of gold trading in the country. It is hoped the move will lift demand for gold bars and coins in the fourth quarter and applies to gold of 99.5% purity, silver of 99.9% purity and platinum of 99% purity.

While in the works for several months, the repeal came into effect on October 1.

Singapore is hoping the scrapping of the tax will lure bullion refiners to the country and convince trading houses to open storage facilities, transforming it into a key Asian pricing hub. along the lines of London and Zurich. Currently holding 2% of global gold demand, the Southeast Asian city-state aims to hike that to 10% to 15% over the next five to 10 years.

Currently, Singapore imports gold bars from Australia, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Japan, which are then sold to buyers in Southeast Asia and neighbouring India.

Singapore's investment gold demand nearly tripled to 3.5 tonnes in 2011, according to consultancy firm GFMS. Singapore has already tripled gold imports year over year, ending December.

At least one major refiner has already shown interest in opening a factory in Singapore. More gold traders are expected to set up offices and store more bullion, post the move.

Gold scraps from the across the region are also traded in Singapore, which helps determine the premiums for gold bars against prices in London.  Earlier, refiners were put off by Singapore's taxes, opting instead to mould and sell gold bars in Hong Kong, which does not impose duties on bullion, and Japan, where the consumption tax on gold was very low.

Also, Hong Kong has been adding to gold and precious metal storage facilities. 

From Sovereign Man’s Tim Staermose,

While the current world hubs for gold trading and storage are London, Zurich, and New York, stores of physical metal are also beginning to migrate east. Gold storage facilities are springing up all over Asia like mushrooms after a summer rain.

Back in 2009, the Hong Kong Airport Authority set up the first secure gold storage facility inside the confines of the Hong Kong Airport.

This September, Malca-Amit, the Tel Aviv-based diamonds and precious metals company is opening a second state of the art facility at the airport, which will have capacity for 1,000 metric tons of gold.

That compares to the 4,582 tons that the US government claims is in Fort Knox, and the record 2,414 million tons that the world’s exchange traded gold funds collectively held – mostly in London– as of July 5th.

Malca-Amit also has a facility in Singapore’s Freeport complex, and the company is planning a third Asian precious metals storage facility in Shanghai in the near future.

As the world’s precious metal hub, this means wealth is likely to flow or move from the West to the East.

I believe that these steps could be seen as insurance against the reckless fiscal and monetary policies of mostly developed Western governments. Add Japan to them.

Quote of the Day: The Myth of Deleveraging

Doug Noland of the Credit Bubble Bulletin at the Prudentbear.com spectacularly demolishes the popular notion that the US has been deleveraging by delving into the nitty gritty of US systemic financing [bold mine]

The three Trillion-plus contraction in FSCMD did reduce Total System Market Debt – in the process seemingly improving debt-to-GDP ratios.  It is not, however, indicative of true system deleveraging and surely doesn’t reflect an improvement in our nation’s overall Credit standing.  Far from it.  From a Macro Credit Analysis perspective, the decline in FSCMD is instead reflective of fundamental changes in both the type of debt now fueling the boom and the corresponding nature of system risk intermediation.

First of all, mortgage debt is about to wrap up its fourth straight year of post-Bubble contraction.  Problem loan charge-offs have played a significant role, as have individuals using lower debt service costs (and near-zero returns on savings!) to speed the repayment of outstanding mortgages.  And, importantly, the decline in home values and the steep drop in transaction volumes have reduced demand for new mortgage debt – hence the need to intermediate mortgage Credit.  That said, the biggest factor behind the drop in FSCMD has been the activist Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s balance sheet is separate from the Financial Sector.  Federal Reserve Assets ended 2007 at $951bn.  Fed holdings ended Q2 2012 at $2.882 TN, up $1.931 TN, or 203%, in 18 quarters.  The Fed essentially transferred $2 TN of Financial Sector liabilities to a secure new home on its balance sheet.  Some may refer to this as “deleveraging,” but I won’t.

Importantly, the Fed’s moves to collapse interest rates and monetize debt (in conjunction with mortgage assistance programs) incited a major wave of mortgage refinancing.  And through the refi process, large quantities of private-label mortgages (previously included in FSCMD as ABS) were essentially transformed into sparkling new GSE-backed mortgage securities – and many then conveniently found their way onto the Federal Reserve’s rapidly inflating balance sheet.  This provided critical liquidity that allowed highly-leveraged Wall Street proprietary trading desks, hedge funds and banks to de-risk/de-leverage.  This bailout accommodated deleveraging for the financial speculators, yet for the real economy the boom in Non-Financial debt ran unabated. 

As noted above, Total Non-Financial Market debt ended this year’s second quarter at $38.924 TN and 249% of GDP – both all-time records.  Garnering all the focus from the deleveraging crowd, Total Household Debt has indeed declined since 2008 – having dropped $787bn, or 5.8%, to $12.896 TN.  At the same time, Federal debt has increased $4.689 TN to $11.050 TN. Non-Financial Corporate debt increased $434bn since ’08 to end Q2 2012 at a record $11.990 TN.  State & Local debt has expanded $101bn since ’08, ending Q2 at about $3.0 TN.   The data is the data - and Deleveraging is a Myth.

A 100% increase in Federal debt and 200% growth in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet are surely not indicative of system de-leveraging.  Such extraordinary Credit developments do, however, have profound effects throughout the markets and real economy. The ongoing Credit expansion has inflated incomes, spending, corporate earnings and securities prices, in the process sustaining for now the U.S. economy’s Bubble structure.  And I would argue strongly that the data support the thesis that our system remains dominated by Bubble Dynamics. 

Also keep in mind that, in contrast to risky mortgage debt, federal debt requires little intermediation.  The marketplace absolutely loves it just the way it is, conspicuous warts and all.  For now, at least, it is “money” and shares money’s dangerous attribute of enjoying virtually insatiable demand.  The only alchemy necessary is to keep those electronic “printing presses” running 24/7.  It is, after all, the massive inflation of federal debt that is inflating incomes, cash-flows and profits, equities and fixed-income securities prices, and government tax receipts and expenditures – in the process validating the “moneyness” of the ever-expanding level of system debt (Ponzi Finance).

To validate Mr. Noland’s point, here are some charts from the US Flow of Funds for the period ended September 28, 2012 (courtesy of Dr. Ed Yardeni’s Blog)

Total US Debt as % of GDP

Non financial debt broken down into domestic sectors as % of GDP

Transformation of US debts from the household to Federal Debt and…

…and the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. (also from Dr. Ed Yardeni’s Blog on Central Banks and QE)

And the Fed balance sheet assets has increasingly been concentrated on US Treasuries.

Systemic deleveraging has indeed been nonexistent.

Make Way for 3D Printed Guitars

3D Printing has indeed been revolutionary. Many products today are being 3D "printed" such as guns and jaw replacements

Add to that list acoustic and electric guitars

Image from Businessweek/Bloomberg

From Businessweek/Bloomberg,

Scott Summit does unusual things on his vacations. For instance, he just spent a week up in the mountains, taking in the majestic scenery and all that, but also sitting at his laptop creating a 3D model of his ideal guitar. Then he sent the computer design to 3D Systems (DDD), which used its massive 3D printers to transform the graphic model into an actual acoustic instrument that Summit can play.

As far as anyone seems to know, this is the first 3D-printed acoustic guitar on the planet, and it raises all kinds musical possibilities. (As several readers noted, people have already made 3D printed electric guitars.)

As a kid, Summit pined after fancy guitars. “I wanted a $3,000 one like Jerry Garcia would play,” he says. At the time, Summit didn’t have the money, so he spent around $100 on wood and other parts and fashioned his own guitar. “It sounded like crap,” he says.

These days, Summit spends most of his time designing custom body parts and stylish prosthetics that get built from 3D printers. He is, in fact, one of the world’s leading 3D printing and design experts, and he decided to put those skills to use over a holiday, refining his childhood vision.

Yet the difference in quality seems to be negligible…

Since the acoustic guitar would be made from fused plastic, Summit figured it would have some serious shortcomings. If it actually worked, it would probably sound worse than his old $100 model. But chances were the guitar would break under the 200 pounds of string pressure that comes with tightening the strings via a tuning machine. Summit set up a video camera to record what would happen when the stringing process started. “I thought it would at least be cool if the guitar exploded,” he says.

But, no. It worked, and it sounds pretty good. “It’s rich and full and has a great tonal range,” says Summit, who’s been known to play at friends’ weddings and at dive bars.

3D made guitars signifies as a breakthrough with more innovations and product transformations ahead

Summit describes this version as a rough draft. He wants to start experimenting with more radical designs to see how they change the sound. Somewhere down the road he figures people will be able to use software to pick out what sort of treble, bass, or sustain they desire and then print a guitar to match those qualities. “It will arrive in the mail and sound just the way you wanted,” he says.

3D printing will alter the division of labor, production process, investment flows, increase specialization and will likely become a household necessity. Eventually too, 3D printing will become object of politicization from mostly the neo-luddites or even from socialists clothed with environmentalist rhetoric.

Video: Ron Paul on the US Presidential Elections: It's a One Party System

In the following telephone interview by CNBC, Congressman Ron Paul says that he won't be endorsing Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney. 

Mr. Paul's caustic remarks on both candidates:

Neither one of them has the vaguest idea what Austrian free-market hard-money economics is all about. But at the same time they know how to play the game and they represent a one party system… 

There is essentially no difference between one administration and another, no matter what the platform.

Infographic: World Economic Freedom, US Ranks 18th; The Lowest Ever

Here is a neat infographic on the world's economic freedom as published by onlinebusinessdegree.org  (hat tip Zero Hedge)

Note of the substantial deterioration of the US at the near lowest portion of the graph as a result of war on drugs and terrorism, bailouts and other government interventions. 

This only means that economic growth trends for the US is likely to decline unless reforms to reverse current dynamics will be made.

For a crispier illustration proceed here

European Union wins Nobel Prize for Peace

Surprise.  The Nobel Prize for peace has been awarded to the crisis stricken European Union.

Ironically, the award of prestige has been focused on the long historical role even when the panel of judges appear to be substantially concerned with present political conditions

Reports the New York Times 

Thorbjorn Jagland, the former Norwegian prime minister who is chairman of the panel awarding the prize, said there had been deep concern about Europe’s destiny as it faces the debt-driven woes that have placed the future of the single currency in jeopardy.

“There is a great danger,” he said in an interview in Oslo. “We see already now an increase of extremism and nationalistic attitudes. There is a real danger that Europe will start disintegrating. Therefore, we should focus again on the fundamental aims of the organization.”

Asked if the euro currency would survive, he replied: “That I don’t know. What I know is that if the euro fails, then the danger is that many other things will disintegrate as well, like the internal market and free borders. Then you will get nationalistic policies again. So it may set in motion a process which most Europeans would dislike.”

In announcing the award, Mr. Jagland described it as a signal focusing on the union’s historical role binding France and Germany together after World War II and its perceived impact in spreading reconciliation and democracy beyond the Iron Curtain that once divided Europe and on to the Balkans. “The stabilizing part played by the E.U. has helped to transform most of Europe from a continent of war to a continent of peace,” he said.

I have pointed out that increasing capital controls and rising political tensions from bailouts have led to increasing border controls. 

Nevertheless UK Independent Party’s Nigel Farage has a stirring rebuke on this. 

"You only have to open your eyes to see the increasing violence and division within the EU which is caused by the Euro project" he said.

"Spain is on the verge of a bail-out, with senior military figures warning that the Army may have to intervene in Catalonia. In Greece people are starving and abandoning their children through desperate poverty and never a week goes by that we don't see riots and protests in capital cities against the troika and the economic prison they have imposed.

"The next stage is to abandon the Nation state: the awarding of this prize to the EU brings it into disrepute."

Mr Farage added, " The last attempt in Europe to impose a new flag, currency and nationality on separate states was called Yugoslavia. The EU is repeating the same tragic mistake.

"Rather than bring peace and harmony, the EU will cause insurgency and violence."

Let me add that interventionism, inflationism, protectionism, and all other coming government or political –isms from EU politicians and the bureaucracy will signify as seeds to political and social conflicts. 

If social conflict should arise, the Nobel Prize would further erode its credibility.

Quote of the Day: Economics is a Policy Science

Nevertheless, from the standpoint of influencing future policy, the elementary teacher is more important than I. I hope that my work will trickle down to the elementary teacher and through him to the large number of potential voters, potential Congressman, and potential newspapermen in his class. This is however merely hope. I don't actually do anything to make that more probable. It is true that my writings are, generally speaking, much more accessible to the ordinary person than most economic writings. This may help somewhat.

Nevertheless, the present situation is in my opinion very undesirable. Economics is a policy science and we should be trying to influence policy.

This is from law and economics Professor Gordon Tullock known for his work with Professor James Buchanan on the Public Choice Theory, as quoted by Professor Peter Boettke at the Coordination Problem Blog.

For the Austrian school, economics is basically value free (Wertfreiheit) or neutral with regards to all value judgments.

However this does not take away analysis through the provision of “praxeological critique of inconsistent and meaningless ethical programs” and the analytical exposition of “all the myriad consequences of different political systems and different methods of government intervention” (Rothbard). This implies that economic education is the principal way to influence public opinion on politics, as well as, on social policies.

Despite Bankruptcy Case, “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” Author Remains a RICH Dad

Popular author Robert Kiyosaki of “Rich Dad Poor Dad” fame seems under assault from mainstream media. While it has been true that Mr.Kiyosaki has indeed filed for bankruptcy, the guy has been insinuated as personally ‘bankrupt’.

[disclosure: I am no fan of Robert Kiyosaki. Mr. Kiyosaki was wrong about the real estate bubble in 2005. But has been right about the currency bubble and being bullish in precious metals. Nevertheless,  this terse commentary has been meant to put Mr. Kiyosaki’s case in perspective]

From ABS-CBN,

In an ironic twist, the author of the bestselling financial help book “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” Robert Kiyosaki, has filed for bankruptcy.

This after one of his companies lost a $24-million court judgment, according to a report from the New York Post.

“Kiyosaki’s Rich Global LLC filed for bankruptcy after being ordered to pay nearly $24 million to the Learning Annex and its founder and chairman, Bill Zanker,” the report said.

“US district judge Shira A. Scheindlin in April ordered Rich Global to pay up $23,687,957.21 after a jury ruled Kiyosaki must give the Learning Annex a percentage of his profits after using their platform for speaking engagements, including a 2002 gig at Madison Square Garden,” it added.

In reality, the reason behind Kiyosaki’s Rich Global LLC filing for bankruptcy has been about legal maneuvering

The same article quotes Mike Sullivan, chief executive officer of Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Co as saying:

“Robert and [wife] Kim are not paying out of personal assets. We have a few million dollars in his company, but not 16 or 20. I can’t do anything about a $20-million judgment… We got hit for what we think is a completely outlandish figure.”

Mainstream media never explains this or at least gives an effort to make news objective or balanced.

Fundamentally, the case stems from charges of breach of contract by an aggrieved party whom was awarded in the court case.

From Business Insider,

But apparently the fame went to his head because according to court papers obtained by the Post, Kiyosaki, who published his first "Rich Dad" book in 1994, never paid the Annex its rightful share. Said founder and chairman Bill Zanker: "Oprah believed in him, and Will Smith believed in him, but he didn't keep his promise to us."

Yet Mr. Kiyosaki remains solvent in spite of the bankruptcy filing. Again from Business Insider:

Despite the blow to the personal finance guru's reputation, Kiyosaki probably won't feel the pinch in his wallet. Forbes pegs his net worth around a cool $80 million, and Kiyosaki, who's written 11 books, operates as many as ten other companies. Rich Global was said to be worth a few million when it went under.

Again, legal maneuvering from a bankruptcy procedure has been about the potential to discharge debts through the bankruptcy court.

According to bankrate.com, debts that are usually discharged from bankruptcy covers the following:

I think Mr. Kiyosaki’s decision to file for bankruptcy means that his case will fall under

Lawsuits and judgments: These result from creditors or collection agencies suing you for failing to pay. With few exceptions, you may eliminate the lawsuit even after it has begun or the judgment that results from the lawsuit.

So despite the bankruptcy proceedings and the implied media slur, Mr. Kiyosaki remains a RICH Dad!!! This serves as one neat example of why you shouldn't trust the mainstream media.

Bill Bonner: Why Statistical Numbers are a Scam

Agora Publishing’s Bill Bonner explains at the Daily Reckoning why relying on aggregate statistics can be misleading

I’ve always been especially suspicious of the zero. It is a number. But a number is ‘something.’ The zero, on the other hand, is supposed to represent nothing. Well, which is it? Something or nothing? Nothing, right? But how can something be nothing? You say you have zero tomatoes. And you tell me zero is a number, used for counting. But how can you count tomatoes that aren’t there? You’ve either got tomatoes or you don’t. Zero tomatoes is a contradiction. It’s oxymoronic.

And if the zero is actually nothing, how come you can put it after a number…and suddenly you have 10 times as much? Or, put it in front of a number…and you have 1/10 as much. How can nothing do all that?

Now if I have 3 tomatoes and I add zero tomatoes, I have done nothing. I still have three tomatoes. But if I multiply my 3 tomatoes by zero, suddenly, I don’t have any tomatoes. If zero is nothing, I want to know what happened to my tomatoes.

We didn’t have the zero for thousands of years. As far as I know, we got along fine without it.

Numbers are a trap for economists. They make it look like science, but it is not science. Far from it. Initial conditions can never been controlled or fully understood. Instead, they are infinitely complex. Nor can results be reproduced. Nor can hypotheses ever be disproven. That’s why economists can cling to dopey ideas for centuries — they can never be disproven.

Using numbers, economists pretend to tell you something they don’t really tell you, often something they can’t possibly tell you.

How GDP numbers are not only unreliable but vulnerable to manipulation:

GDP numbers are a complete scam. They don’t tell you if you’re coming or going. They don’t tell you if you’re getting richer or poorer. This is another way that numbers fail. They can only measure quantity. Or speed. Here’s an example. An article ran in the Wall Street Journal last month. It explained how Italy’s economic growth was retarded by strong family attachments. Half the young children in Italy are raised by their grandparents — their ‘nonni’ — while their parents work. Instead of going to day care centers, the kids go to their grandparents.

How does this affect an economy? There is no exchange of money when the grandparents do the day care. So, it doesn’t register in the GDP. No exchange of money, no ‘growth.’ The article also went on to say that people were reluctant to leave their hometowns to seek work elsewhere because they relied on the family for childcare. Theoretically, a mobile population increases GDP too…GDP increases when people take new jobs, move, buy houses and furniture, sign up for health clubs, day care and so forth. All these things add to GDP growth, even though they do nothing to really increase quality of life. They are a kind of phony growth. GDP looks only at the quantity and velocity of money transactions, not the quality of them…nor the quality of life they produce…nor the real wealth of the people in an economy.

I cut your lawn. You mow my lawn. We pay each other. The GDP goes up. The more transactions per person per year — the greater the GDP of a country.

Is anybody better off? What really have the numbers told us? Has one single extra lawn been mowed? One single extra blade of grass cut down?

No, right? So, if a number…the GDP growth number…tells you that you’re growing…and you’re not really growing…what good is the number? It’s a flimflam. An empty number. There’s no good information in it. It’s like the unemployment number. Empty. Hollow. A zero. And so are almost all the compound, formula-driven numbers used by economists. They are dishonest. Their only role is to tart up economists’ confections and make it appear that they can do things they can’t really do. They are designed to make economics look like engineers, working on the economy as though they were real technicians preparing a moon launch.

But if these guys were building a bridge, none of us would want to drive over it. If they were building cars, we wouldn’t buy them. And if they were running the phone company, and we needed a telephone number, we could call “Directory Information;” they’d estimate it for us.

Easy to understand lesson for the layman

IMF’s Christine Lagarde Inflationist Delusions

From the Deutsche Borse Group: (bold added)

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde praised monetary stimulus efforts of the world's major central banks Thursday, but said non-monetary authorities in Europe, the United States and elsewhere need to build on those steps to improve growth in a slowing world economy.

Lagarde, at a press conference ahead of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, said she "expects courageous, cooperative action" at the meetings.

She also aimed criticism at China, whose top economic policymakers declined to attend the meetings because of territorial disputes with host Japan. China needs to be more of a global partner and increase demand for foreign products, not just concentrate on exporting its own products, she said, after pointedly noting its officials' absence.

Lagarde vowed the IMF "will spare no time and effort" to help Greece, but said the objective is to ultimately free that country from dependence on outside assistance.

Noting that the IMF has downgraded its projections of global growth, Lagarde said, "we are not expecting a very strong recovery." Indeed, she called high unemployment rates in advanced countries "terrifying and unacceptable."

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have all adopted additional easing measures, and she praised their moves, but said that by themselves those actions are "not sufficient." 

The "momentum" imparted by monetary easing "should be seized as an opportunity," she said.

Ms, Lagarde’s “momentum” remarks essentially echoes former President Obama’s chief of staff and current Mayor of Chicago Emanuel Rahm’s infamous sly quote on establishing political controls over society…

You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.

And emerging market central banks have fawningly embraced Ms. Lagarde’s recommendations.

This from Reuters:

Emerging market central banks have clearly taken to heart the recent IMF warning that there is “an alarmingly high risk”  of a deeper global growth slump.

Two central banks have cut interest rates in the past 24 hours: Brazil  extended its year-long policy easing campaign with a quarter point cut to bring interest rates to a record low 7.25 percent and the Bank of Korea (BoK) also delivered a 25 basis point cut to 2.75 percent.  All eyes now are on Singapore which is expected to ease monetary policy on Friday while Turkey could do so next week and a Polish rate cut is looking a foregone conclusion for November.

South Africa, Hungary, Colombia, China and Turkey have eased policy in recent months while India has cut bank reserve ratios to spur lending.

The BoK’s explanation for its move shows how alarmed policymakers are becoming by the gloom  all around them. Its decision did not surprise markets but its (extremely dovish) post-meeting rhetoric did.  The bank said both exports and domestic demand were “lacklustre”.  (A change from July when it admitted exports were flagging but said domestic demand was resilient) But consumption has clearly failed to pick up after July’s surprise rate cut — retail sales disappointed even during September’s festival season.  BoK clearly expects things to get worse: it noted that ” a cut now is better than later to help the economy”.

Ms. Lagarde’s comments, which gives emphasis on the short term at greater costs of the future, can be summed up into two types of casuistry: 

The delusion of central planning: 

From the great Ludwig von Mises (Omnipotent Government),

It is a delusion to believe that planning and free enterprise can be reconciled. No compromise is possible between the two methods. Where the various enterprises are free to decide what to produce and how, there is capitalism. Where, on the other hand, the government authorities do the directing, there is socialist planning. Then the various firms are no longer capitalist enterprises; they are subordinate state organs bound to obey orders. The former en­trepreneur becomes a shop manager like the Betriebsführer in Nazi Germany.

As well as the delusions of the elixir of inflationism or perhaps a stealth scheme being employed by the cabal of central bankers to demolish what remains of laissez faire capitalism 

From the deity or icon of inflationism, Lord John Maynard Keynes (PBS.org) [bold added]

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.

Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers," who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.

Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.

Inflationists are either aware of the evils their policies create but nevertheless insidiously impose them for covert political reasons, or have been too blinded by their possession of power.

I Told You So Moment: Philippine Exports Hit in August

From Wall Street Journal, 

The Philippines' August exports fell 9% from a year earlier, making the country the latest in Asia to take a hit from sluggish demand from Europe and the U.S.

The decline, to $3.798 billion, was the largest percentage drop since December. The National Statistics Office said August was the first month since December that export value dropped below $4 billion.

Electronics shipments, the country's biggest export category, fell 14.9% from a year earlier to $1.765 billion, though they rose 5.4% from July.

Shipments of clothing, coconut oil and bananas also saw double-digit declines.

Exports for the first eight months of 2012 rose 5.4% to $35.28 billion, lagging the pace needed to meet the government's full-year growth target of 10%.

The country's central bank said it would consider the August export data when it reviews its monetary policy later this month, but economists doubt the figures will prompt an immediate rate cut.

Here is what I wrote last July, 

Again while it is true that Asia has been less dependent on the West, there is no guarantee that other sectors will not be affected from slomo diffusing or spreading of the global debt crisis.

A slowdown in electronic exports incidentally constitutes about half of Philippine exports

So those dreaming of immunity from a global slowdown will likely be refuted.

Bottom line: The contagion risk is real.

Sweet vindication especially against the clueless mainstream who then had been predicting economic paradise from the populist charade of supposed political salvation.

Oh by the way, contra policy signaling being transmitted by monetary authorities, slashing interest rates (or even doing local version of QE) will do no magic for exports. 

What this does instead is to fuel rampant speculations and malinvestments.

(chart from tradingeconomics.com)

Proof?

Philippine asset markets  (Peso Stocks), like her global counterparts, have been defying gravity—yeah we live in a parallel universe—where asset prices and the real economy seem to be moving in opposite directions.

Has the Swedish Recovery from the Banking Crisis of the 90s been due to Devaluation?

Here is another claim by an advocate of inflationism: Devaluation kickstarted the recovery of the Swedish economy from the banking crisis of 1990s.

I will quote mainstream references as rejoinder, so as to assume neutrality.

From Wikipedia.org (bold emphasis mine)   

In the 1980s, a real estate and financial bubble formed, driven by a rapid increase in lending. A restructuring of the tax system, in order to emphasize low inflation combined with an international economic slowdown in the early 1990s, caused the bubble to burst. Between 1990 and 1993 GDP went down by 5% and unemployment skyrocketed, causing the worst economic crisis in Sweden since the 1930s. According to an analysis by George Berglund published in Computer Sweden in 1992, the investment level decreased drastically for information technology and computing equipment, except in the financial and banking sector, the part of the industry that created the crisis. The investment levels for IT and computers were restored as early as 1993. In 1992 there was a run on the currency, the central bank briefly jacking up interest to 500% in an unsuccessful effort to defend the currency's fixed exchange rate. Total employment fell by almost 10% during the crisis.

A real estate boom ended in a bust. The government took over nearly a quarter of banking assets at a cost of about 4% of the nation's GDP. This was known colloquially as the "Stockholm Solution". The United States Federal Reserve remarked in 2007, that "In the early 1970s, Sweden had one of the highest income levels in Europe; today, its lead has all but disappeared... So, even well-managed financial crises don't really have a happy ending."

The welfare system that had been growing rapidly since the 1970s could not be sustained with a falling GDP, lower employment and larger welfare payments. In 1994 the government budget deficit exceeded 15% of GDP. The response of the government was to cut spending and institute a multitude of reforms to improve Sweden's competitiveness. When the international economic outlook improved combined with a rapid growth in the IT sector, which Sweden was well positioned to capitalize on, the country was able to emerge from the crisis.

The crisis of the 1990s was by some viewed as the end of the much buzzed welfare model called "Svenska modellen", literally "The Swedish Model", as it proved that governmental spending at the levels previously experienced in Sweden was not long term sustainable in a global open economy. Much of the Swedish Model's acclaimed advantages actually had to be viewed as a result of the post WWII special situation, which left Sweden untouched when competitors' economies were comparatively weak.

The allegation of devaluation as having jumpstarted the recovery seems materially misplaced.

Instead, the devaluation looks to be part of the bubble forming process which ultimately ended with a “run” on the currency.

While “restructuring of taxes” served as the likely catalyst for the ensuing bust, I think this has been more about central bank tightening (whom jacked up rates up to 500%). 

While the Swedish government did intervene to rescue the banking system, overall, the general economic recovery has been mostly the result of the much maligned "AUSTERITY" defined here as cuts in government spending as shown by Sweden’s material decline in government’s debt to GDP, as well as, Sweden’s government’s budget which turned into surpluses, the restoration of trade COMPETITIVENESS and the DECLINE of Sweden’s “Svenska modellen” welfare state. [charts from tradingeconomics.com]

More anecdotal evidence from Johnny Munkhammar, a member of the Moderate Party of the Swedish Parliament, and the author of "The Guide to Reform" (Timbro/IEA 2007)at the Wall Street Journal in January 26, 2012 [bold added] 

But Socialism was fashionable in post-War Europe and Sweden was not immune. The 1970s were a decade of radical government intervention in society and in markets, during which Sweden doubled its overall tax burden, socialized a slew of industries, re-regulated its markets, expanded its public systems, and shuttered its borders. In 1970, Sweden had the world's fourth-highest GDP per capita. By 1990, it had fallen 13 positions. In those 20 years, real wages in Sweden increased by only one percentage point.

Remnants of its earlier success remained, and the idea of following "the Swedish model" had already caught hold around the world. Fine, except the roots of this success were confused with Stockholm's more recent big-government policies, which in fact were destroying the country's enviable prosperity. This confusion also played into domestic debates, stalling reform for too long.

By the late 1980s, though, Sweden had started de-regulating its markets once again, decreased its marginal tax rates, and opted for a sound-money, low-inflation policy. In the early 1990s, the pace quickened, and most markets except for labor and housing were liberalized. The state sold its shares in a number of companies, granted independence to its central bank, and introduced school vouchers that improved choice and competition in education. Stockholm slashed public pensions and introduced private retirement schemes, keeping the system demographically sustainable.

These decisive economic liberalizations, and not socialism, are what laid the foundations for Sweden's success over the last 15 years. After the reforms of the early 1990s, Swedes' real wages increased by roughly 35% in a decade. And, as businesses have become more productive and people's incomes have risen, living standards improved. More people eat at restaurants now, more people travel abroad, more people buy DVDs and new cars. More people get more.

It’s funny or bizarre to see political zealots mistake symptoms of the diseases for medical treatment (which in reality are snake oil nostrums).

Video: G. Edward Griffin: The Fed's Sole Purpose: To Keep the Banks Afloat

The following video from Casey Research presents Casey Summit speaker G. Edward Griffin, author of The Creature from Jekyll Island, on the Fed's real role in the US economy and why – contrary to common belief – it is not this banking cartel's mission to act in the best interest of the American public.

More Financial Repression in Europe: Tobin’s Tax

Well Europe seems to see only taxation as a way out of their problems which are meant at preserving the status quo.

Eleven countries in the EU have proposed to impose a Tobin’s Tax or Financial Transaction Tax

From Reuters.com, 

A plan by a group of euro zone countries to introduce a tax on financial transactions threatens to drive more trading to London from centres such as Frankfurt, exacerbating divisions in Europe as it struggles to overcome an economic crisis. 

On Tuesday, 11 countries agreed to press ahead with a tax set to fall on the trading of shares, bonds and derivatives, although it may take up to two years before the necessary legislation is in place and the scheme starts.

Commonly known as a "Tobin tax" after Nobel-prize winning U.S. economist James Tobin, who proposed one in 1972 as a way of reducing financial market volatility, it has become a political symbol to make banks, hedge funds and high-frequency traders pay towards cleaning up a debt crisis shaking the continent.

But the EU has not been unanimous. To the contrary, such tax may even threaten escalation of political rifts among the member states that could undermine the already fragile relationships. 

More from the same article:

But the move threatens to open yet another rift in Europe, where countries already diverge in their regulation of finance and politicians have long argued over how best to control the banks blamed for triggering financial turmoil in 2007.

Proponents first tried to introduce the tax worldwide in 2008 via the Group of 20 major economies. Faced with U.S., Swiss and Chinese opposition, they tried to persuade the 27-member European Union to lead the way, or even the 17-nation euro zone. But each organisation had its sceptics.

Following an aborted attempt to introduce its own such levy in the mid-1980s, Sweden has repeatedly warned that introducing the tax will simply drive trading elsewhere. Britain, home to the region's biggest financial centre, London, will not join.

The group of Tobin taxers:

Germany, France, Italy and Spain have made it clear, however, they will be among a group that will impose the charge that is set to be 0.1 percent on the trading of bonds and shares and 0.01 percent for derivatives deals.

But the move by the group, which includes Austria, Belgium, Slovenia, Portugal, Greece, Estonia and Slovakia, has been greeted with scepticism by analysts and industry, who believe it fragments Europe's approach to regulating finance at a time when a separate plan tries to unify euro zone banking supervision.

If transaction costs rise enough due to these taxes, compounded by intensifying regulations, particularly capital controls, we should expect to see capital move away from these Europe nations and seek out places where money is treated best or is welcomed.

Asia should take this opportunity to liberalize more her financial markets in order to attract investors looking for capital friendly environments.

US States: High Debts and Labor Unionism

Some debt crisis stricken US states could be facing debt downgrades soon.

From Businessweek/Bloomberg,

The debt of 30 California cities, including Oakland, Fresno and Sacramento, has been placed under review for downgrades because of economic pressures in the state, Moody’s Investors Service said.

The examinations may affect $14.3 billion in lease-backed and general-obligation debt issued by the municipalities, the New York-based company said yesterday in a statement.

“California cities operate under more rigid revenue- raising constraints than cities in many other parts of the country,” Eric Hoffmann, who heads Moody’s California local government ratings team, said in a statement. “Combined with steeply rising costs, these constraints mean that these cities will likely recover more slowly than their peers nationally, even if the state’s economic recovery tracks the nation’s.”

Communities in California have struggled to stay afloat by cutting staff and services to make up for a drop in sales and property tax revenue in the wake of the recession. Stockton, San Bernardino and Mammoth Lakes have gone into bankruptcy court since June.

Moody’s said it identified the credits as part of a broader review started in August of 95 rated cities in California.

The general-obligation bond ratings of Los Angeles, now Aa3, fourth-highest,and San Francisco, Aa2, third-highest, are on review for upgrades, Moody’s said.

Such developments merely reminds us that the US remains highly fragile to lingering debt problems.

Also, the prospective downgrades reminds me of an article that I recently came across which associates high levels of debt with high levels of ‘forced’ unionization.

From DScoundrels.com (hat tip Charleston Voice)

After discovering that the Top 10 states with the highest tax rates were all Forced Union states, it comes as no surprise that the top states with the worst debt trouble are also Forced Union states. Back in January Forbes tallied up several factors to identify which states were in the worst debt trouble (50 being the worst). The ‘Debt Per Capita and Unfunded Pensions Per Capita’ number is how much is owed per person in the state. Forbes looked at the following:

The metrics we looked at for each state included unfunded pension liabilities, changes in tax revenue, credit agency ratings, debt as a percentage of Gross State Product, debt per capita, growth expectations for employment and the state economy, net migrations and a moocher ratio that compares government employees, pension burdens and Medicaid enrollees to private-sector employment.

Forced Union vs Right-to-Work States:

Of the top 15 states with the worst debt troubles every one listed is a Forced Union state other than Mississippi and Louisiana. These states are outliers because they have assumed larger debt due to rebuilding after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina. Of the top 15 states with the least debt troubles, all but 4 (New Hampshire, Montana, Colorado and Indiana) are Right-to-Work states. Note that in 2005 Governor Daniels of Indiana revokedthe collective bargaining rights of public sector unions.  It is also notable that the Forced Union states have a higher percentage of unionized government workers than the Right-to-Work states.

Read the rest here.

Due to the mass production and centralized organization structure which characterized the industrial age, labor unions used to represent highly influential vested groups. 

Chart from the conservative Heritage Foundation 

They still are politically influential but a lot less than what had been.

Proof of this is that some of President Obama’s policies have been conspicuously pro-union e.g. auto bailouts.

However due to globalization and the deepening of the information age, labor union trends have been on a decline worldwide.

Governments in the past has implemented inflationism to pacify US labor union groups.

As the great Ludwig von Mises narrated,

The very essence of the interventionist politicians' wisdom is to raise the price of labor either by government decree or by violent action on the part of labor unions. To raise wage rates above the height at which the unhampered market would determine them is considered a postulate of the eternal laws of morality as well as indispensable from the economic point of view. Whoever dares to challenge this ethical and economic dogma is scorned both as depraved and ignorant. Many of our contemporaries look upon people who are foolhardy enough "to cross a picket line" as primitive tribesmen looked upon those who violated the precepts of taboo conceptions. Millions are jubilant if such scabs receive their well-deserved punishment from the hands of the strikers while the police, the public attorneys, and the penal courts preserve a lofty neutrality…

Firmly committed to the principles of interventionism, governments try to check this undesired result of their interference by resorting to those measures which are nowadays called full-employment policy: unemployment doles, arbitration of labor disputes, public works by means of lavish public spending, inflation, and credit expansion. All these remedies are worse than the evil they are designed to remove.

I believe that a lot of the advocates for the mercantilist-inflationists dogma are those bearing a nostalgia for big labor union days.

Unfortunately for them, today’s political priorities have shifted. Governments, along with their central banks, have been supporting mostly the crony banking system (through asset prices) whom has served as key financier to welfare-warfare based political institutions.

Worse, the era of labor union, welfare-warfare and big government are being seriously challenged by growing forces of decentralization and by internal atrophy from unsustainable government spending-debt dynamics.

30,000 Drones to Patrol US Skies for Public Safety

The transition towards a police state in the US seems now in progress.

Drones will become the next airborne police surveillance vehicles in the name of “Public Safety”.

From RT.com (italic original)

Don’t be surprised if you catch a federal fleet of sneaky spy drones soaring over your head in the near future, but don’t be too terrified — it’s all in the name of public safety.

The US Department of Homeland Security is asking the makers of small unmanned aerial vehicles to submit their crafts for consideration as the agency ramps up the construction of a full-fledged surveillance state across America. The DHS plans to soon conduct drone tests over the Fort Sill, Oklahoma US Army base, and they’re already soliciting spy planes from the private sector so they can select what kind of UAV to use.

According to a request for information published on the Federal Business Opportunities website recently, the DHS is determined to begin drone tests over the military base soon and is seeking submissions from drone makers that don’t mind making a few bucks by having their products put into the US airspace to conduct sweeping surveillance.

The Borders and Maritime Security Division of the DHS “will conduct flight testing and evaluation of airborne sensors and small unmanned aerial systems,” the request reads, and now invites vendors to submit drones to be tested “under a wide variety of simulated but realistic and relevant real-world operation scenarios.”… 

The Federal Aviation Administration is working towards putting the finishing touches on rules and regulations for widespread domestic drone use, and the agency expects as many as 30,000 UAVs will be in America’s airspace by the decade’s end.

As America's founding father and principal author of the Declaration of Independence and third president of the United States Thomas Jefferson said, 

Those who desire to give up freedom in order to gain security will not have, nor do they deserve, either one